scholarly journals Causality and Randomness as Objects of Perception in the Structure of Criminalistic Thinking

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 252-261
Author(s):  
Dmitry Bakhteev
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Distortions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Random Search ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Synthesis Mechanism ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Flexible System ◽  
Problem Situations ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Subject Of Cognition

The author analyzes criminalistic mindset from two standpoints — as a set of guidelines and as a flexible system of tools for studying the crime incident — and notes that the process of investigating and solving crimes is represented in the cognition of the person studying it as a dynamic system developing from cause to effect. Thus, there is a transition from the a priori (fragmented) probability of evidential information to the a posteriori, reliable probability. The author stresses the importance of the analysis and synthesis mechanism of the investigator’s thinking, which allow them to avoid investigation mistakes or other distortions of information perception. Each consequence has a corresponding concrete cause, although one cause could lead to multiple consequences. Thus, the causality of a crime and the appearance of its traces are perceived in detail, i.e., the investigator studies the mechanism of how the crime was committed through the trace picture of crime consequences and chooses the most probable of all possible causes. The author points out the importance of verifying the obtained information because material information is subject to destructive physical and chemical processes, while the ideal information — to cognitive distortions of perception, memory and reproduction. However, even when the trace information is distorted, the cause-and-effect relations remain intact. The author stresses the significance of the version process in the establishment of the cause-and-effect relations. He also discusses the random factors present in the process of crime investigation and solution, which, on the one hand, have a negative impact on this process and, on the other, make it possible to resolve problem situations characterized by a lack of information. Randomness is most evident in the investigative situations of problematic or risky nature. It is noted that randomness acts as a strictly subjective feature dependent on the specifics of the criminalistic mindset of the subject of cognition, not on the features of the objective reality; the characteristics of randomness could differ at different levels of examining a problem. The author analyzes the structure of the consequences of random search as a decision-making method in the conditions of insufficient information: it is possible to continue random search, to update the version or to transform the investigative situation from the simple into the complex or vice versa.

scholarly journals Interventions Aiming to Promote Active Commuting in Children and Adolescents: An Evaluation From a Sex/Gender Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Marzi ◽  
Sandra Emmerling ◽  
Yolanda Demetriou ◽  
Jens Bucksch ◽  
Carolin Schulze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Active Commuting ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Intervention Effects ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Single Sex ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Intervention Content ◽  
Gender Specific

Active commuting (AC) provides numerous health benefits and is one way to improve physical activity in children and adolescents. Boys are more likely to use active transport modes than girls. Girls and boys benefit differently from interventions that promote AC. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the effects of interventions on girls and boys and to appraise the extent to which previous studies have taken sex/gender into account. Eleven electronic databases were searched to identify all relevant randomized and non-randomized controlled trials based on a priori defined eligibility criteria. Two independent reviewers screened the literature for eligibility and assessed risk of bias. Semiquantitative analyses were conducted to evaluate the effects of intervention effects by taking sex/gender aspects into account. To evaluate sex/gender considerations in interventional studies, a recently developed sex/gender checklist was applied. Twelve studies were included that examined intervention effects on AC in girls and boys. Three intervention studies showed significant effects in increasing AC, with one study favoring girls, one favoring boys, and another focusing on a single sex/gender (only girls). According to the checklist, the overall sex/gender rating highlighted a lack of information in sex/gender consideration. Studies with and without significant effects indicated no differences in the sex/gender checklist. The results indicate that sex/gender is not considered adequately in primary interventional research on AC. To evaluate the effectiveness of intervention in boys and girls, detailed analyses of sex/gender are required, and better reporting about sex/gender-specific intervention content is necessary. In future health research to promote AC, sex/gender should be systematically taken into account.

Simulation of Market Price Formation as a Game Between Stochastic Automata

1976 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. M. El-Fattah ◽  
R. Henriksen
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Competitive Market ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Reinforcement Scheme ◽  
Stochastic Automata ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Simulation Results

A seller in a free competitive market attempts to optimize his profit by manipulating the price of his commodity. A seller does not know a priori the market conditions such as the conditional probability of the buyers demand, the criteria or even the number of his seller opponents. Subject to this lack of information, the process of market price formation can be simulated as a game between stochastic automata. As time unfolds each seller-automaton learns the market conditions and changes accordingly its price probabilities in view of maximizing its profit. A simple reinforcement scheme is introduced for the design of such automata. The simulation results demonstrate the expediency of the automata behavior.

scholarly journals Hypodermoclysis: a literature review to assist in clinical practice

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Galuppo Bruno
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Nursing Staff ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Therapeutic Goals ◽  
Routes Of Administration ◽  
Safe Option ◽  
Lack Of Information

The aim of this study was to analyze the information available in the literature about the drugs that can be administered through hypodermoclysis and the resulting impact that this information may have on the routine of the pharmacist working at a hospital. The study was based on a review of the literature. The results showed positive points of the procedure, but little specific information about medications such as routes of administration, standard dilutions, optimal doses, etc. Thus, it was possible to verify that there is no definite information as to the correct way to administer the drugs in this route, even though this is an effective and safe option, according to the literature. The lack of information has a negative impact on the support provided by the pharmacist to the nursing staff to ensure that the drug actually reaches its therapeutic goals safely.

1D single-site and laterally constrained inversion of multifrequency and multicomponent ground-based electromagnetic induction data — Application to the investigation of a near-surface clayey overburden

Geophysics ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (4) ◽  
pp. WB19-WB35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyril Schamper ◽  
Fayçal Rejiba ◽  
Roger Guérin
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Field ◽  
Electromagnetic Induction ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Random Search ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Conductive Layer ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Priori Information ◽  
Definition Of

Electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods are widely used to determine the distribution of the electrical conductivity and are well adapted to the delimitation of aquifers and clayey layers because the electromagnetic field is strongly perturbed by conductive media. The multicomponent EMI device that was used allowed the three components of the secondary magnetic field (the radial [Formula: see text], the tangential [Formula: see text], and the vertical [Formula: see text]) to be measured at 10 frequencies ranging from 110 to 56 kHz in one single sounding with offsets ranging from 20 to 400 m. In a continuing endeavor to improve the reliability with which the thickness and conductivity are inverted, we focused our research on the use of components other than the vertical magnetic field Hz. Because a separate sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] suggests that [Formula: see text] is more sensitive to variations in the thickness of a near-surface conductive layer, we developed an inversion tool able to make single-sounding and laterally constrained 1D interpretation of both components jointly, associated with an adapted random search algorithm for single-sounding processing for which almost no a priori information is available. Considering the complementarity of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] components, inversion tests of clean and noisy synthetic data showed an improvement in the definition of the thickness of a near-surface conductive layer. This inversion code was applied to the karst site of the basin of Fontaine-Sous-Préaux, near Rouen (northwest of France). Comparison with an electrical resistivity tomography tends to confirm the reliability of the interpretation from the EMI data with the developed inversion tool.

scholarly journals Self-Determination and Self-Realization of the Youth of Russia: Socio-Moral and Psychological-Pedagogical Aspects of the Problem

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 440-462
Author(s):  
Asat G. Abdullin ◽  
Valery V. Likholetov ◽  
Irina G. Ryabova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Self Determination ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Random Choice ◽  
Youth Policy ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Problem Situations ◽  
Standard Problem ◽  
Topological Modeling ◽  
Life Path

Introduction. The complex problems of upbringing and education of young people, their choice of landmarks in their life path, occupations and self-realization, which are relevant for the progress of the modern world, are studied by scholars from many countries. However, the existing specialization of sciences and the prevailing system of preferences of different scientific schools serve as an obstacle to inter- and transdisciplinary research. The purpose of the article is to present the results of the analysis of the vast problematic field of self-determination and self-realization of modern Russian youth. Materials and Methods. To study the problem, an analysis of statistical data and the results of sociological surveys, a cluster grouping of threats-problems in the sphere of self-determination and self-realization of youth was used for subsequent topological modeling. It was done by constructing and analyzing an oriented (causeand- effect) graph of threats as undesirable effects in order to identify key problems. When constructing a directed graph from threat-problems, the method of functional analysis of cause-and-effect chains tested in the study of a variety of non-standard problem situations in the theory of inventive problem solving was used. Results. Based on the results of the analysis of the cause-and-effect multigraph, built on the basis of 33 threatsproblems as troubles, four reasons of the first level were identified: “brain drain”, violation of the principle of social justice in the country, lack of ideological unity of society due to the ban on state ideology, low religiosity of society. This is followed by three reasons of the second level: the lack of a coherent state youth policy, the ineffectiveness of the existing model of such a policy, a unified state exam as one of the key reasons for the random choice of vocational training for young people. Discussion and Conclusion. The results obtained add up to the development of comprehensive research on the problems of youth self-determination and self-realization that are extremely important for the countryʼs optimistic future.

scholarly journals Cognitive distortions in the reflection of civic identity in China: on the material of Russian-language media of East and Western

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (44) ◽  
pp. 115-125
Author(s):  
Yuan Lin ◽  
Irina S. Karabulatova ◽  
Alexander N. Shirobokov ◽  
Aleksei O. Bakhus ◽  
Elena N. Lobanova
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Cognitive Distortions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Russian Language ◽  
Cognitive Distortion ◽  
Civic Identity ◽  
The Mass Media ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Media Discourses

This article is devoted to the analysis of cognitive distortion in the mass media as a method of forming a civic identity. Due to the increasing influence of mass media and information technologies, the growth of information impact, the problem of the formation of civil identity is becoming more and more significant, and the mass media is a tool for the formation of civil identity. The authors consider the method of cognitive distortion in the mass media as a method of forming a civic identity in modern media. Culture in the Russian and Chinese traditions reveals both universals and peculiarities. The authors analyze how the attitude to civil identity is transmitted in Russian and Chinese media discourses, which allows us to understand the difference in background knowledge and identify cognitive distortions in translation. The authors see differences in the ethnopedagogic strategies of the state that ensure a positive attitude to civic identity in the Chinese digital space, which has parallels with the Soviet discourse. At the same time, the authors believe that the assimilation of Western models of admiration for their values has a negative impact on the formation of generational continuity and ethno-socio-cultural experience in the traditions of countries.

scholarly journals Mechanisms, good and bad

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold Kincaid
Keyword(s):  
Philosophy Of Science ◽  
Causal Structure ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Good Science ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Structure Framework ◽  
Context Specific

The claim that mechanisms are essential good science is widespread. I argue, however, that these claims are ambiguous in multiple ways. I sort out different version of the mechanism idea: (1) mechanisms that are horizontal – between cause and effect – and mechanisms that are vertical – they realize in lower-level terms causal properties –: and (2) different purposes or uses mechanisms may have. I then focus on the claim that various senses of mechanism are necessary for the confirmation of causal claims. The paper shows that mechanisms can be useful, essential, or harmful depending on context, using the now standard graphical causal structure framework. These conclusions also support the larger philosophy of science moral that methodological norms in science are often context specific and empirical, not a priori and universal.

scholarly journals A retrospective study of orthodontic treatment with pre-treatment gingival recessions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoste Antanaviciene ◽  
Dalia Smailiene ◽  
Nomeda Baseviciene ◽  
Egle Zasciurinskiene
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Orthodontic Treatment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Gingival Recession ◽  
Open Bite ◽  
Class Iii ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Pre Treatment

Abstract Background: The development of gingival recessions (GR) after orthodontic treatment (OT) is well described in the literature. However, there is a lack of information about the changes in pre-existing GR during OT. Methods: This retrospective study aimed to examine the change of GR before and after OT. Intraoral photographs of 993 patients treated with fixed appliances between 2005 and 2017 were evaluated. Patients who had at least one GR on the vestibular surface of maxillary/mandibular teeth mesial to first molars were included. GR was measured on good quality plaster models before and after OT. The change of GR (T0-T1) was categorised into the three groups: worsened, did not change and improved (this group consisted of GR, which became better but did not disappear, and fully healed, which disappeared after OT)). The change of GR by ≥0.5 mm was recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS Statistics (Version 22.0. Armonk, NY, USA). Results: Fifty-one (5.1%) patient had ≥1 GR before OT. Of them, 37 (72.5%) patients were included in the final analysis according to the inclusion criteria. GR before OT was found on 114 buccal/labial surfaces. At tooth level the median GR improvement was 0.55 (Q1; Q3: 0.12; 0.96) mm (p<0.001). GR improved in 67 teeth (58.7%), did not change in 41 (36.0%), and worsened in 6 (5.3%). Of the 67 GR, which improved, full healing was observed in 15 (22.4%) teeth. There was a lower chance for GR improvement in cases with pre-treatment open bite (OR 3.35; 95% CI: 1.14, 9.84; p=0.03) and dental Class III patients (OR 2.20; 95% CI: 0.92, 5.28; p=0.03). Conclusions: Based on the findings of the present retrospective study, it may be concluded that orthodontic treatment induces changes in gingival recessions. In more than half of the teeth, the improvement in gingival recession was observed. Class III malocclusion and reduced pre-treatment overbite had a negative impact on GR improvement.

Effect of cognitive distortions caused by errors in information processing on decision-making by economic agents

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-138
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. GRECHKO ◽  
Larisa A. KOBINA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Consumer Choice ◽  
Institutional Economics ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Cognitive Distortions ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Survey Techniques ◽  
The Face ◽  
Probability Information

Subject. This article examines the issues related to the cognitive potential of behavioral and institutional economics and irrationality in decision-making. Objectives. The article aims to develop an application toolkit to investigate the mechanism of cognitive biases influence on decision-making by economic agents. Methods. For the study, we used the prospect theory and expert survey techniques. Results. Based on the cognitive potential of interdisciplinary decision theory, the article proves that most economic agents in the face of incomplete information prefer individual information, rather than a priori probability information. Conclusions. The results of the study can be useful to create a tool to manage consumer choice.

Modelling disaggregated lumber demand and supply by constrained estimation techniques

1990 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 781-789
Author(s):  
William McKillop ◽  
Gao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Quadratic Programming ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Statistical Efficiency ◽  
Constrained Estimation ◽  
Programming Technique ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Lack Of Information

Constrained estimation techniques were used to estimate a 12-equation demand and supply system for Douglas-fir and hemlock–fir (true fir) lumber by clear and common grades. Such techniques combine sample information with nonsample information and produce estimates with smaller variances than those based only on sample data. Conventional econometric estimation was compared with a quadratic programming technique with regression coefficients constrained to their a priori correct signs. A goal programming technique that minimized the sum of the absolute deviations was rejected because of its substantially different results and lack of information on the statistical properties of its estimates. The quadratic programming technique had the advantages of statistical efficiency, objectivity, and speed. The conventional estimation technique excluded fewer variables from the system and thus was less susceptible to omission of variables bias. Elasticity estimates for most key variables were similar. Quadratic programming versus conventional estimates of demand elasticity were, respectively, −0.95 and −0.88 for Douglas-fir clears, −2.83 and −2.91 for Douglas-fir commons, and −2.13 and −2.27 for all Douglas-fir; whereas supply elasticities for hemlock–fir commons were 1.35 and 1.37, and for all hemlock–fir, −1.76 and −1.42.

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