scholarly journals Prediction model for deoxynivalenol in wheat grain based on weather conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. S33-S37 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Váňová ◽  
K. Klem ◽  
P. Matušinský ◽  
M. Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Preceding Crop ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering

Environmental factors influence the growth, survival, dissemination and hence the incidence of <i>Fusarium</i> fungi and the disease severity. The knowledge of the quantitative and qualitative effects of environmental factors and growing practices on initial infection, disease development and mycotoxin production is important for prediction of disease severity, yield impact and grain contamination with mycotoxins. The objective of this study was to design a model for prediction of deoxynivalenol (DON) content in winter wheat grain based on weather conditions, preceding crop and soil cultivation. The grain samples from winter wheat field experiments conducted in 2002–2005 to determine the effect of preceding crop in combination with soil cultivation on Fusarium head blight infection were analysed for the DON content. Average daily weather data (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity) were collected using an automated meteorological station and analysed separately for April, May and a 5 days period prior to the beginning of flowering and 5 days after the beginning of flowering. The correlation coefficients of DON content to weather data were calculated for monthly data prior to heading and 5 days data prior to and after the beginning of anthesis. Highest positive correlation coefficients were found for sum of precipitation in April, average temperature in April, and sum of precipitation 5 days prior to anthesis. Significant negative correlation was found for average temperature in May and average relative humidity 5 days prior to anthesis. Using the data from this experiment, we trained neural networks for prediction of deoxynivalenol content on the basis of weather data and preceding crop. The most appropriate neural network model was then coupled with AgriClim model to simulate spatial and temporal variation of DON content in wheat samples for south Moravia and north-east Austria area.

scholarly journals A neural network model for prediction of deoxynivalenol content in wheat grain based on weather data and preceding crop

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 421-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Klem ◽  
M. Váňová ◽  
J. Hajšlová ◽  
K. Lancová ◽  
M. Sehnalová
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Preceding Crop ◽  
Input Variables

Deoxynivalenol (DON) is the most prevalent Fusarium toxin in Czech wheat samples and therefore forecasting this mycotoxin is a potentially useful tool to prevent it from entering into food chain. The data about DON content in wheat grain, weather conditions during the growing season and cultivation practices from two field experiments conducted in 2002–2005 were used for the development of neural network model designed for DON content prediction. The winning neural network is based on five input variables: a categorial variable – preceding crop, and continuous variables – average April temperature, sum of April precipitation, average temperature 5 days prior to anthesis, sum of precipitation 5 days prior to anthesis. The most important input parameters are the preceding crop and sum of precipitation 5 days prior to anthesis. The weather conditions in April, which are important for inoculum formation on crop debris are also of important contribution to the model. The weather conditions during May and 5 days after anthesis play only an insignificant role for the DON content in grain. The effect of soil cultivation was found inferior for model function as well. The correlation between observed and predicted data using the neural network model reached the coefficient <i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.87.

scholarly journals The association between COVID-19 data and meteorological factors in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Supari ◽  
Danang Eko Nuryanto ◽  
Amsari Muzakir Setiawan ◽  
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan ◽  
Furqon AlFahmi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Daily Data

Abstract On March 2, 2020, the first Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) case was reported in Jakarta, Indonesia. One and half month later (15/05/2020), the cumulative number of infection cases was 16496 with a total of 1076 mortalities. This study is aimed to investigate the possible role of weather in the early cases of COVID-19 incidence in six selected cities in Indonesia. Daily data of temperature and relative humidity from weather stations nearby each city were collected during the period 3 March - 30 April 2020, together with data of COVID-19 cases. Correlation tests and regression analysis were performed to examine the association of those two data series. In addition, we analysed the distribution of COVID-19 with respect to weather data to estimate the effective range of weather data supporting COVID-19 incidence. Our results reveal that weather data is generally associated with COVID-19 incidence. The daily average temperature (T-ave) and relative humidity (RH) presents significant positive and negative correlation with COVID-19 data, respectively. However, the correlation coefficients are weak with the strongest correlations found at 5 day lag time i.e. 0.37 (-0.41) for T-ave (RH). The regression analysis consistently confirmed this relation. The distribution analysis reveals that the majority of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia occurred in the daily temperature range of 25-31oC and relative humidity of 74-92%. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 incidence in Indonesia has a weak association with weather conditions. Therefore, non-meteorological factors seem to play a larger role and should be given greater consideration in preventing the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China

Plant Disease ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 101 (10) ◽  
pp. 1753-1760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuli Tang ◽  
Xueren Cao ◽  
Xiangming Xu ◽  
Yuying Jiang ◽  
Yong Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Powdery Mildew ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Disease Epidemics

Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen’s temperature requirements, we constructed a multiregression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China’s winter wheat production in the future.

scholarly journals Relationships Between Weather Conditions, Agronomic Practices, and Fermentation Characteristics with Deoxynivalenol Content in Fresh and Ensiled Maize

Plant Disease ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 89 (11) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Mansfield ◽  
E. D. De Wolf ◽  
G. A. Kuldau
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Practices ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Agronomic Practices ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
No Till ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Hybrid Development

The deoxynivalenol (DON) content of maize silage was determined in samples collected at harvest and after ensiling in 2001 and 2002 from 30 to 40 Pennsylvania dairies. Information on cultural practices, hybrid maturity, planting, and harvest date was collected from each site. Site-specific weather data and a corn development model were used to estimate hybrid development at each site. Correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between weather data, hybrid development, cultural practices and preharvest DON. Fermentation characteristics (moisture, pH, and so on) of ensiled samples were measured to study their relationship to postharvest DON contamination. No significant difference (P ≤ 0.05) was noted between the numbers of samples containing DON in 2001 and 2002, although concentration was higher in 2002 samples. A positive correlation was observed between DON concentration of harvest samples and daily average temperature, minimum temperature, and growing degree day during tasselling, silking, and milk stages. A negative correlation was observed between daily average precipitation at blister stage and DON concentration in harvest samples. Samples from no-till or minimum-till locations had higher DON concentrations than moldboard or mixed-till locations. Harvest samples had higher DON concentration than ensiled samples, suggesting that some physical, chemical, or microbiological changes, resulting from ensiling, may reduce DON in storage.

scholarly journals The influence of weather conditions on the course of pollen seasons of alder (Alnus spp.), hazel (Corylus spp.) and birch (Betula spp.) in Lublin (2001-2006)

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Dąbrowska
Keyword(s):  
Pollen Season ◽  
Birch Pollen ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Pollen Grains ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Air Humidity ◽  
Relative Air Humidity ◽  
Beginning Of Flowering ◽  
Pollen Seasons

The start and rate of florescence of <i>Alnus</i>, <i>Corylus</i> and <i>Betula</i> are dependent on meteorological conditions. In the present paper we have analysed the effect of mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative air humidity and precipitation on the onset of the pollen season as well as on its length and annual count of pollen grains in alder, hazel and birch. The measurement of pollen fall was done by the gravimetric methods with the use of Durham sampler. Correlation coefficients were calculated between the determined characteristics of the pollen season and weather conditions. In the six-year research period 2001-2006 it was observed that low temperatures in January produced a delayed start of the pollen season in alder, hazel and birch. The beginning of flowering in these taxa was also influenced by thermal conditions prevailing directly before the season (ca. 10 days). The pollen season of the trees in question tended to be prolonged alongside with the increase in relative air humidity, but it was shortened due to higher temperatures. The volume of alder and hazel pollen release increased together with the rise in relative air humidity and precipitation. The annual counts of birch pollen increased along with rising temperature and decreasing relative air humidity and precipitation in the season.

scholarly journals Composition and Predominance of Fusarium Species Causing Fusarium Head Blight in Winter Wheat Grain Depending on Cultivar Susceptibility and Meteorological Factors

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 617
Author(s):  
Tim Birr ◽  
Mario Hasler ◽  
Joseph-Alexander Verreet ◽  
Holger Klink
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Fusarium Head Blight ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Fusarium Species ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Head Blight ◽  
Dna Amount ◽  
Cultivar Susceptibility ◽  
Dna Amounts

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is one of the most important diseases of wheat, causing yield losses and mycotoxin contamination of harvested grain. A complex of different toxigenic Fusarium species is responsible for FHB and the composition and predominance of species within the FHB complex are determined by meteorological and agronomic factors. In this study, grain of three different susceptible winter wheat cultivars from seven locations in northern Germany were analysed within a five-year survey from 2013 to 2017 by quantifying DNA amounts of different species within the Fusarium community as well as deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEA) concentrations. Several Fusarium species co-occur in wheat grain samples in all years and cultivars. F. graminearum was the most prevalent species, followed by F. culmorum, F. avenaceum and F. poae, while F. tricinctum and F. langsethiae played only a subordinate role in the FHB complex in terms of DNA amounts. In all cultivars, a comparable year-specific quantitative occurrence of the six detected species and mycotoxin concentrations were found, but with decreased DNA amounts and mycotoxin concentrations in the more tolerant cultivars, especially in years with higher disease pressure. In all years, similar percentages of DNA amounts of the six species to the total Fusarium DNA amount of all detected species were found between the three cultivars for each species, with F. graminearum being the most dominant species. Differences in DNA amounts and DON and ZEA concentrations between growing seasons depended mainly on moisture factors during flowering of wheat, while high precipitation and relative humidity were the crucial meteorological factors for infection of wheat grain by Fusarium. Highly positive correlations were found between the meteorological variables precipitation and relative humidity and DNA amounts of F. graminearum, DON and ZEA concentrations during flowering, whereas the corresponding correlations were much weaker several days before (heading) and after flowering (early and late milk stage).

Microbial Load of Hard Red Winter Wheat Produced at Three Growing Environments across Nebraska, USA

2016 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 646-654 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUIS SABILLÓN ◽  
JAYNE STRATTON ◽  
DEVIN J. ROSE ◽  
TESHOME H. REGASSA ◽  
ANDRÉIA BIANCHINI
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Microbiological Quality ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Internal Mold ◽  
South Central ◽  
Hard Red Winter Wheat ◽  
Red Winter Wheat

ABSTRACT Post-flowering weather variables in farm fields may influence the microbial loads of wheat grain. In this study, the effects of weather variables following wheat flowering on the microbiological quality of wheat were evaluated over two consecutive growing seasons (2011 to 2012 and 2012 to 2013) in the state of Nebraska, USA. Three hard red winter wheat lines, including two commercial cultivars (Overland and McGill) and one experimental line (NW07505), were planted in three regions with contrasting key weather variables (Southeast, South Central, and Panhandle district) to ensure that developing seeds were exposed to different weather conditions. The natural microbial flora and deoxynivalenol concentrations of 54 freshly harvested wheat samples (three samples per wheat line, with a total of 9 samples per district) were analyzed to evaluate the impacts of the weather conditions prevailing from flowering to harvesting in each growing location (district) and season on the microbiological quality and safety of wheat grain. In 2012, the values for aerobic plate counts, Enterobacteriaceae, yeasts, molds, and internal mold infection levels were significantly lower in grain samples collected from the Panhandle district than in grain harvested from the South Central and Southeastern districts. No significant differences in the yeast counts were found in grain collected from all districts in 2013, but the levels of internal mold infection and mold counts were significantly higher in grain from the Southeastern district than in grain from the Panhandle district. Deoxynivalenol was detected in all districts; however, the concentrations were below the advisory level of 1 mg/kg for processed wheat. Microbial growth during grain development seems to be dependent on the existence of a threshold level of weather variables during the season. In general, the microbial loads in wheat grain tended to be lower in those areas with lower relative humidity levels (below 55%) and with temperatures lower than 13.7°C and higher than 31.5°C.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Visual Estimates of Fusarium Head Blight Intensity and Deoxynivalenol Accumulation in Harvested Wheat Grain: A Meta-Analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (10) ◽  
pp. 1225-1236 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Paul ◽  
P. E. Lipps ◽  
L. V. Madden
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Fusarium Head Blight ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Head Blight ◽  
Unpublished Studies ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Study Type

The association between Fusarium head blight (FHB) intensity and deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation in harvested grain is not fully understood. A quantitative review of research findings was performed to determine if there was a consistent and significant relationship between measures of Fusarium head blight intensity and DON in harvested wheat grain. Results from published and unpublished studies reporting correlations between DON and Fusarium head blight “index” (IND; field or plot-level disease severity), incidence (INC), diseased-head severity (DHS), and Fusarium-damaged kernels (FDK) were analyzed using meta-analysis to determine the overall magnitude, significance, and precision of these associations. A total of 163 studies was analyzed, with estimated correlation coefficients (r) between -0.58 and 0.99. More than 65% of all r values were >0.50, whereas less that 7% were <0. The overall mean correlation coefficients for all relationships between DON and disease intensity were significantly different from zero (P < 0.001). Based on the analysis of Fisher-transformed r values ( zr values), FDK had the strongest relationship with DON, with a mean r of 0.73, followed by IND (r = 0.62), DHS (r = 0.53), and INC (r = 0.52). The mean difference between pairs of transformed zr values (zd ) was significantly different from zero for all pairwise comparisons, except the comparison between INC and DHS. Transformed correlations were significantly affected by wheat type (spring versus winter wheat), study type (fungicide versus genotype trials), and study location (U.S. spring- and winter-wheat-growing regions, and other wheat-growing regions). The strongest correlations were observed in studies with spring wheat cultivars, in fungicide trials, and in studies conducted in U.S. spring-wheat-growing regions. There were minor effects of magnitude of disease intensity (and indirectly, environment) on the transformed correlations.

scholarly journals YIELD AND QUALITY OF WINTER WHEAT GRAIN ON THE BACKGROUND OF FERTILIZERS AND DIRECT SOWING ON ORDINARY CHERNOZEM UNDER STAVROPOL CONDITIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (24) ◽  
pp. 183-194
Author(s):  
N.N. Shapovalova ◽  
◽  
A.A. Voropaeva ◽  
N.A. Galushko ◽  
E.A. Menkina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Ordinary Chernozem ◽  
Mineral Fertilizers ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Preceding Crop ◽  
Yield And Quality ◽  
No Till ◽  
Direct Sowing

The problem of reducing crop yields during the transition from classical technology of cultivation to the technology without tillage (no-till) can be solved by the most effective use of fertilizers. The purpose of the research was to study the influence of mineral fertilizers on the yield and quality of winter wheat grain under direct sowing in the Stavropol Territory. Studies were carried out in 2015-2019 on the experimental field of the North Caucasus Federal Agricultural Research Centre. Winter wheat was sown using two cultivation techniques for growing crops with and without disturbing the soil through tillage. Preceding crops – pea and sunflower. Fertilizers were added to the rows simultaneously with the Triticum vulgare L. sowing; topsoil dressing was carried out using N52 according to the method of splitting dividers. Options (amount of fertilizers added to the rows): 1. Without fertilizers; 2. N6Р26; 3. N12Р52; 4. N24Р104; 5. N52Р52; 6. N52Р52К52; 7. N52; 8. N104Р52К52. In the third year of direct sowing (2017–2019), winter wheat showed high responsiveness to the addition of all doses of fertilizers in rows. The yield increase in case of pea being preceding crop varied between 0.76-3.06 t/ha; sunflower – 0.51–2.75 t/ha. N104P52K5 contributed to the highest and most stable yield – 6.89 t/ha and 5.92 t/ha after pea and sunflower, respectively. The increase from 1 kg of the active substance of the fertilizer was 14.7 and 13.2 kg of grain. The use of this dose of fertilizer minimized crop losses compared to the first year of wheat cultivation using no-till farming and classical agricultural technique. At the same time, the 3rd and 4th class grain was formed. Higher content of raw gluten compared to other doses of fertilizers was noted likewise: 1.6–9.8 % (preceding crop – pea) and 1.1–11.5 % (preceding crop – sunflower) more. Nitrogen fertilization played a significant role in increasing yields only after sunflower (the average increase was 0.21–0.86 t/ha).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document