scholarly journals Using Transformations to Predict and Smooth Time Series

Author(s):  
Jassim N Hussain, Et. al.

Time series has a leading position in statistical Analysis.  Nowadays, many economic and industrial operations have been built based on time series. These operations include predicting the product demand variation, the future product prices oscillation, the stock storing control etc. This paper presents a study to show the effect of transformation and smoothing on the performance of the time series. The research results have shown a significant improvement in time-series operation can be noticed when the principles of transformation and smoothing are applied on time series.

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-13
Author(s):  
G. Stankevych ◽  
L. Dmytrenko ◽  
A. Kats ◽  
V. Shpak

In the future, in Ukraine it is planned to increase the sown area for cereals, legumes and oilseeds, to increase the gross grain harvest to 80 million tons, and its export abroad was increased twice. Intensive construction in the southern ports of Ukraine of grain transshipment terminals with large metal silos will solve the problem of increasing grain export in the future. At these powerful terminals, the bulk of the grain comes mainly by rail, and is shipped to water. The aim of the work was to study the characteristics of the grain receiving from railway transport to the grain transshipment terminal of LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” in order to improve its works efficiency. The object of the study was the development of technology of grain receiving at the grain transshipment terminal; the subject of research is cereals, legume sand oil crops, as well as data from daily volumes of receiving and dispensing operations at the grain transshipment terminal of LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” for 2015-2016. The studies were carried out on the basis of processing data from the consignment notes for 2015-2016, according to which there was a summed amount of grain (net) daily transported by the railway. Further processing of the obtained data was carried out by a combined graphoanalytical method, for which, on the basis of tabular values for each studied year, the corresponding histograms and graphs were built and the necessary indicators were determined. Analysis of the structure of grain crops supplied by railway to LLC “Ukrelevatorprom” in 2015 and 2016 and their ratio showed that the main share was occupied by cereal crops (78.0 % and 73.1 % respectively), which were mainly represented by corn, share which was significantly dominated by other crops (wheat of various classes and barley) and amounted to 45.8 % and 44.5 %, respectively, which can be explained by its high demand in the international grain market, in which Ukraine occupies a leading position. Oilseeds (rapeseed) were taken in accordance with 19.1 % and 14.9 %, and legumes (soybeans) — 2.9 % and 12.0 %. An analysis of the timing of the unloading of grain wagons (hopper cars) showed that the total duration of this process, depending on the crops, averages 37...59 minutes. The longest steps for unloading wagons are to determine the grain quality indicators, especially rapeseed, and to spill grain from the wagons, therefore, to reduce their duration, it is necessary to form feeds of wagons with grain batches of the same quality and use more modern express analyzers to determine grain quality indicators, which will increase the productivity of the grain receiving line from the railway. According to the research results, the enterprise has the potential to increase by about 30 % the volume of grain intake. It was established that the periods of the grain receipt at the enterprise in 2015-2016 amounted to 349 and 353 days, respectively, the actual coefficients of the daily irregularity Kdaily for the grain receipt from the railway in these years are equal to 1.47 and 1.52, and the monthly irregularity Kmonth, respectively 1.33 and 1.21, does not exceed the standard values Kdaily = 2.5 and Kmonth= 2.0. This made it possible to clarify the database from the actual characteristics of the process of grain receiving by railway and can be used in design and verification calculations of equipment in technological lines for receiving grain from railway transport, and will contribute to increasing the efficiency of grain transshipment terminals. 


Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Thomas Danel ◽  
Zoubeir Lafhaj ◽  
Anand Puppala ◽  
Sophie Lienard ◽  
Philippe Richard

This article proposes a methodology to measure the productivity of a construction site through the analysis of tower crane data. These data were obtained from a data logger that records a time series of spatial and load data from the lifting machine during the structural phase of a construction project. The first step was data collection, followed by preparation, which consisted of formatting and cleaning the dataset. Then, a visualization step identified which data was the most meaningful for the practitioners. From that, the activity of the tower crane was measured by extracting effective lifting operations using the load signal essentially. Having used such a sampling technique allows statistical analysis on the duration, load, and curvilinear distance of every extracted lifting operation. The build statistical distribution and indicators were finally used to compare construction site productivity.


Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Shirin Nasrollah Nejhad ◽  
Tayebeh Ilaghinezhad Bardsiri ◽  
Maryam feiz arefi ◽  
Amin babaei poya ◽  
Ehsan mazloumi ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND: Many work-related fatalities happen every year in electricity distribution companies. This study was conducted to model accidents using the time series analysis and survey descriptive factors of injuries in an electricity distribution company in Tehran, Iran. METHODS: Data related to 2010 to 2017 were collected from the database of the safety department. Time Series and trend analysis were used for data analyzing and anticipating the accidents up to 2022. RESULT: Most of the accidents occurred in summer. Workers’ negligence was the reason for 75%of deaths. Employment type and type of injuries had a significant relationship (p <  0.05). CONCLUSION: The anticipating model indicated occupational injuries are going to have an increase in the future. A high rate of accidents in summer maybe because of the warm weather or insufficient skills in temporary workers. Temporary workers have no chance to work in a year like permanent workers, therefore acquisition experiences may be less in them. Based on the estimating model, Management should pay attention to those sectors of the company where most of the risky activities take place. Also, training programs and using personal protective equipment can help to protect workers in hazardous conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asaad Mohammed Ali Wahhab

The study aims to identify the responsibility of the external auditor in examining and evaluating the dimensions of sustainability information from the perspective of the auditors who are working in Iraqi companies and auditing offices. To achieve this goal, a questionnaire was created and distributed to a random sample of the study population consisting of auditors working in Iraqi companies and auditing offices. 83 questionnaires were retrieved, and all were valid for statistical analysis, which indicates100% of the sample study. The results of the study show that there is awareness among the external auditors in Iraq about their responsibility to examine and evaluate information related to dimensions of economic, environmental and social and the governance rules for sustainability and their application of the standards on the global reporting initiative (GRI). Besides, the presence of high trend among the auditors causing them to be accountable to the society who are the stakeholders, causing problems that can hinder the performance of the auditors in fulfilling their professional responsibility. This study will highlight several pieces of evidence from the works of literature as references of information to the external auditor and the corporate sustainability in Iraq to the future empirical and theoretical researcher.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-268
Author(s):  
Nana Liu ◽  
Zeshui Xu ◽  
Marinko Skare

Research background: The outbreak and spread of COVID-19 brought disastrous influences to the development of human society, especially the development of economy. Purpose of the article: Considering that knowing about the situations of the existing studies about COVID-19 and economy is not only helpful to understand the research progress and the connections between COVID-19 and economy, but also provides effective suggestions for fighting against COVID-19 and protecting economy, this paper analyzes the existing studies on COVID-19 and economy from the perspective of bibliometrics. Methods: Firstly, the discussion starts from the statistical analysis, in which the basic distributions of the studies on different countries/regions, different publication sources, different publication years, etc., are presented. Then, the paper shows the cooperation situations of the researchers from analyzing the related citation networks, co-citation networks and cooperation networks. Further, the theme analysis of the related studies is presented, in which the related co-occurrence networks are shown, and then the detailed analyses of the studies are introduced. Based on these analyses, the discussions about future research are presented, and finally we draw a conclusion. Findings & value added: The analyses not only present the basic situation on the research about COVID-19 and Economy, but also show the future research trends, which can provide meaningful research expectations.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Bayu Mitra Adhyatma Kusuma

The purpose of this research is to contribute initiative ideas to improve the hajj management professionalism through dynamic governance. This research uses qualitative type with descriptive approach. The research results with concern to the culture and capability of the Ministry of Religious Affairs formulate that thinking ahead can be executed by analyzing and projecting what will be facing in 10 or 20 years into the future based on the tendency toward national and global change, political constellation, and socio-economic of the community. Thinking again can be done by reviewing again whether policies, strategies and programs that are running are appropriate and able to meet the needs of pilgrims. And Thinking across, can be applied by learning from the experiences of other countries that also regulates the organization of the Hajj.


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