scholarly journals Regional Climate Change (Karelia, Russia)

Author(s):  
Larisa Nazarova

The overview of climatic conditions in Karelia is based on the data from meteorological observations carried out in 1951-2009 at Roskomgidromet weather stations situated in the study area. Taking the period in question into account, the mean annual air temperature norm has increased by 0.2-0.3°C. The greatest deviation from multiyear averages of mean monthly air temperature is observed in January and March. The investigation of the changes the basic regional climate characteristics is very important in present time because the global climate is changed. The analysis the data about air temperature and precipitation, that were obtained for the different meteorological stations in the investigated region, shows that the regional climate is changed and the main tendencies are directly proportional to the change of the global characteristics.

Author(s):  
L. E. Nazarova

As a result of the statistical analysis of the meteorological and water balance data for Onego Lake watershed over the period 1950-2000, noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over 50-year period contains positive linear trends, but no change in total streamflow to the lake has so far followed. Potential changes in the regional climate and hydrological regime for the period 2000-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical modeling with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model for two scenarios of the global climate change. The estimation of these data shows that a general tendency to increase of annual air temperature and precipitation will remain in the new climate Mean annual precipitation will increase about 30-50 mm, mean average annual air temperature for the next 50-years period will rise from 1.6 up to 2.7-3.0 °C. Our estimation shows that for both scenarios all water balance parameters, excluding river runoff, will increase.


2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1589-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi

Abstract Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are applied to regional temperature and precipitation changes over different regions of the world, and relevant parameters are calculated using the latest multimodel ensemble of global climate change simulations. Examples are also shown of how to use the equations to develop probability density functions (PDFs) of regional climate change based on PDFs of GTC. The main advantage of these equations is that they can be used to estimate regional changes from GTC obtained either from simple and intermediate complexity models or from target CO2 stabilization concentrations.


Author(s):  
V. Khokhlov ◽  
N. Yermolenko

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.


1999 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Matyasovszky ◽  
T. Weidinger ◽  
J. Bartholy ◽  
Z. Barcza

Abstract. After focusing on the changes in Hungarian temperature and preeipitation during this Century, possible hydrological, agricultural and ecological consequences of a future climate change are described. These results have been obtained using a modified version of empirical downscaling techniques, developed to analyse the local effects of global climate change in a twofold concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases scenario. In addition, regional changes in temperature and precipitation were examined with the help of the more specific stochastic downscaling method. The climate of Hungary has become warmer and drier over the last Century. It is to be expected that an increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will enhance the tendency towards aridification.


Author(s):  
Larisa Nazarova

The climate of the Beloe Sea  catchment area (total size 717.7 km<sup>2</sup>, 714 of which belongs to Russia) is described. The territory is characterized by several geographic zones, thus substantial diversity of climatic conditions is observed. Climate variability in the region was studied using data from the longest available instrumental observations at weather stations (WS) and gauge sites of the Russian Federal Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Agency located in the study area, covering the period from the beginning of observations at the stations until 2012-2013. The data obtained were statistically processed with due regard to the research tasks. Modern observational data are analyzed to distinguish the changes in the climatic regime of the main parameters, i.e. air temperature, precipitation, sunshine length, etc. Since 1989, the stable increase of mean annual air temperature (1-2<sup>о</sup>C) over a climatic norm is observed. The most intensive warming is typical for the winter months. The analysis of changes in precipitation over the study area demonstrates the stable increase of annual sums, deviation of which from the climatic norm in the first decade of XXI century is about 50-100 mm


2020 ◽  
Vol 101-102 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 19-25
Author(s):  
Olena Nashmudinova

Regional climate change in Ukraine in recent decades is accompanied by an increase in the repetitiveness of intense waves, both heat and cold; there is a tendency to increase the frequency of warm winters, but sometimes there are periods with significant decreases in temperature. The aim of the study is to determine the specifics of the formation of air temperature anomalies in the cold period 2010–2019. According to the distribution of the average monthly air temperature at the stations Odessa, Kiev, Kharkiv, Lviv investigated positive and negative deviations from the climate norm. In January, the average monthly air temperature in most cases was above normal, except for 1–3 years. The maximum positive anomaly was 4–5°C in Kyiv and Lviv (2015), the largest negative deviations were 3.8°C. In February, the trend continues – only 2–3 years with negative anomalies, the largest deviations to 3–6°C in 2011 and 2012, and positive deviations maximum in 2016. In March, negative temperature anomalies were observed 3–4 years, with a maximum of 2–3°C in 2018, positive anomalies in 4–6°C were observed in 2014, 2017. Temperatures in November were variable, with the prevailing positive anomaly, a high of 6–8°C in 2010. The distribution of air temperature in December was characterized by positive deviations of a maximum of 5–6°C in 2011, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Months of the greatest positive and negative air temperature anomalies over Europe have been highlighted. Among the colder months, the biggest anomaly stood out in January 2010 and February 2012 to 5–6°C. Among the warm months, the temperature anomaly was observed in February 2016, positive deviations from the norm to 8°C. Heat waves formed in winter with a zonal type of circulation, when warm moist air from the Atlantic shifted across the periphery of the Icelandic low. In March, waves of heat formed in low–gradient fields. Powerful waves of cold over the European sector were mainly formed under the influence of “eastern processes” in the spread of the Siberian anticyclone to Europe. In some years, significant cooling over Ukraine is formed in cyclonic systems with a high–altitude thermobaric field characterized by polar or ultrapolar hollow.


2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-421 ◽  

The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period (1961-1990). All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.


Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1543
Author(s):  
Reinhardt Pinzón ◽  
Noriko N. Ishizaki ◽  
Hidetaka Sasaki ◽  
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa

To simulate the current climate, a 20-year integration of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with grid spacing of 5 and 2 km (NHRCM05 and NHRCM02, respectively) was nested within the AGCM. The three models did a similarly good job of simulating surface air temperature, and the spatial horizontal resolution did not affect these statistics. NHRCM02 did a good job of reproducing seasonal variations in surface air temperature. NHRCM05 overestimated annual mean precipitation in the western part of Panama and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. NHRCM05 is responsible for this overestimation because it is not seen in MRI-AGCM. NHRCM02 simulated annual mean precipitation better than NHRCM05, probably due to a convection-permitting model without a convection scheme, such as the Kain and Fritsch scheme. Therefore, the finer horizontal resolution of NHRCM02 did a better job of replicating the current climatological mean geographical distributions and seasonal changes of surface air temperature and precipitation.


Author(s):  
V. V. Hrynchak

The decision about writing this article was made after familiarization with the "Brief Climatic Essay of Dnepropetrovsk City (prepared based on observations of 1886 – 1937)" written by the Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Weather Department of the Hydrometeorological Service A. N. Mikhailov. The guide has a very interesting fate: in 1943 it was taken by the Nazis from Dnipropetrovsk and in 1948 it returned from Berlin back to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological and Environmental Directorate of the USSR, as evidenced by a respective entry on the Essay's second page. Having these invaluable materials and data of long-term weather observations in Dnipro city we decided to analyze climate changes in Dnipropetrovsk region. The article presents two 50-year periods, 1886-1937 and 1961-2015, as examples. Series of observations have a uniform and representative character because they were conducted using the same methodology and results processing. We compared two main characteristics of climate: air temperature and precipitation. The article describes changes of average annual temperature values and absolute temperature values. It specifies the shift of seasons' dates and change of seasons' duration. We studied the changes of annual precipitation and peculiarities of their seasonable distribution. Apart from that peculiarities of monthly rainfall fluctuations and their heterogeneity were specified. Since Dnipro city is located in the center of the region the identified tendencies mainly reflect changes of climatic conditions within the entire Dnipropetrovsk region.


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