scholarly journals EFFECT OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON RUNOFF FROM THE LAKE ONEGO WATERSHED

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
L. E. Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

As a result of the statistical analysis of the meteorological and water balance data for Onego Lake watershed over the period 1950-2000, noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over 50-year period contains positive linear trends, but no change in total streamflow to the lake has so far followed. Potential changes in the regional climate and hydrological regime for the period 2000-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical modeling with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model for two scenarios of the global climate change. The estimation of these data shows that a general tendency to increase of annual air temperature and precipitation will remain in the new climate Mean annual precipitation will increase about 30-50 mm, mean average annual air temperature for the next 50-years period will rise from 1.6 up to 2.7-3.0 °C. Our estimation shows that for both scenarios all water balance parameters, excluding river runoff, will increase.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Change (Karelia, Russia)

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 356
Author(s):  
Larisa Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Mean Annual Air Temperature

The overview of climatic conditions in Karelia is based on the data from meteorological observations carried out in 1951-2009 at Roskomgidromet weather stations situated in the study area. Taking the period in question into account, the mean annual air temperature norm has increased by 0.2-0.3°C. The greatest deviation from multiyear averages of mean monthly air temperature is observed in January and March. The investigation of the changes the basic regional climate characteristics is very important in present time because the global climate is changed. The analysis the data about air temperature and precipitation, that were obtained for the different meteorological stations in the investigated region, shows that the regional climate is changed and the main tendencies are directly proportional to the change of the global characteristics.

scholarly journals A Simple Equation for Regional Climate Change and Associated Uncertainty

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1589-1604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
First Century ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Global Temperature Change ◽  
Simple Equations ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are applied to regional temperature and precipitation changes over different regions of the world, and relevant parameters are calculated using the latest multimodel ensemble of global climate change simulations. Examples are also shown of how to use the equations to develop probability density functions (PDFs) of regional climate change based on PDFs of GTC. The main advantage of these equations is that they can be used to estimate regional changes from GTC obtained either from simple and intermediate complexity models or from target CO2 stabilization concentrations.

scholarly journals ASSESSING GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY UNDER COLDEST AND WARMEST PERIODS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDINAL REGIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Eleonora Runtunuwu ◽  
Akihiko Kondoh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Arithmetic Means ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Period Data

Effect of climate change on water balance will play a key role in the biosphere system. To study the global climate change impact on water balance during 95-year period (1901-1995), long-term grid climatic data including global mean monthly temperature and precipitation at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution were analysed. The trend and variation of climate change, the time series of monthly air temperature and precipitation data were aggregated into annual arithmetic means for two extreme periods (1901-1920 and 1990-1995). The potential evapotranspiration (Eo) was calculated using Thornthwaite method.<br />The changes in mean annual value were obtained by subtracting the maximum period data from 1990 to 1995 (Max) with the minimum period data from 1901 to 1920 (Min). The results revealed that over 95-year period, mean global air temperature increased by 0.57oC. The temperature increase varied greatly in Asia, with more than 3.0oC, especially at 45-70oN, as well over the northern part of America (60-65oN) and Europe (55- 75oN). In low latitude across Asia, Africa, and South America, the variation was less than 1.5oC. In 80-85ºN region, the variation was relatively small and at higher latitudes it increased<br />significantly. Precipitation varied temporally and spatially. In the 40-45ºN and 40-45ºS regions, increasing precipitation of more than 100 mm occurred during the June-August and<br />September-November, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Eo increase of 2000 mm during 95 years occurred in the tropical northern America, middle Africa, and South-East Asia. A grid in Central Java of Indonesia showed that the Eo increase of 2500 mm during 95 years resulted in the decrease of growing period by 100 days. In coping with climate change, adjustment of cropping calendar is imperative.

scholarly journals Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

2017 ◽  
pp. 76-82
Author(s):  
V. Khokhlov ◽  
N. Yermolenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Southern Ukraine

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity. The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

scholarly journals Current regional climate change studies in Hungary : a review

1999 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 138-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Matyasovszky ◽  
T. Weidinger ◽  
J. Bartholy ◽  
Z. Barcza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Local Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Downscaling

Abstract. After focusing on the changes in Hungarian temperature and preeipitation during this Century, possible hydrological, agricultural and ecological consequences of a future climate change are described. These results have been obtained using a modified version of empirical downscaling techniques, developed to analyse the local effects of global climate change in a twofold concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases scenario. In addition, regional changes in temperature and precipitation were examined with the help of the more specific stochastic downscaling method. The climate of Hungary has become warmer and drier over the last Century. It is to be expected that an increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will enhance the tendency towards aridification.

scholarly journals ASSESSING GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY UNDER COLDEST AND WARMEST PERIODS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDINAL REGIONS

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Eleonora Runtunuwu ◽  
Akihiko Kondoh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Arithmetic Means ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Period Data

Effect of climate change on water balance will play a key role in the biosphere system. To study the global climate change impact on water balance during 95-year period (1901-1995), long-term grid climatic data including global mean monthly temperature and precipitation at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution were analysed. The trend and variation of climate change, the time series of monthly air temperature and precipitation data were aggregated into annual arithmetic means for two extreme periods (1901-1920 and 1990-1995). The potential evapotranspiration (Eo) was calculated using Thornthwaite method.<br />The changes in mean annual value were obtained by subtracting the maximum period data from 1990 to 1995 (Max) with the minimum period data from 1901 to 1920 (Min). The results revealed that over 95-year period, mean global air temperature increased by 0.57oC. The temperature increase varied greatly in Asia, with more than 3.0oC, especially at 45-70oN, as well over the northern part of America (60-65oN) and Europe (55- 75oN). In low latitude across Asia, Africa, and South America, the variation was less than 1.5oC. In 80-85ºN region, the variation was relatively small and at higher latitudes it increased<br />significantly. Precipitation varied temporally and spatially. In the 40-45ºN and 40-45ºS regions, increasing precipitation of more than 100 mm occurred during the June-August and<br />September-November, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Eo increase of 2000 mm during 95 years occurred in the tropical northern America, middle Africa, and South-East Asia. A grid in Central Java of Indonesia showed that the Eo increase of 2500 mm during 95 years resulted in the decrease of growing period by 100 days. In coping with climate change, adjustment of cropping calendar is imperative.

scholarly journals Hindu Kush Himalayan Ecosystem as a Common Concern of Humankind: Imperative for Better Regional Jurisprudence

2017 ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Debasis Poddar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Common Concern ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
The World

Hindu Kush Himalayan region (hereafter the HKH) - with 3500 odd kilometres stretched in eight countries- is default resource generation hub for about one-fifth population of the world. The ecosystem-growing delicate these days- seems to play a critical role for the survival of flora and fauna along with the maintenance of all its life-sustaining mountain glaciers. Ten major rivers to carry forward hitherto sustainable development of these peoples fall into question now. Further, in the wake of global climate change today, the delicate HKH ecosystem becomes increasingly fragile to unfold manifold consequences and thereby take its toll on the population. And the same might turn apocalyptic in its magnanimity of irreversibledamage. Like time-bomb, thus, climate ticks to get blown off. As it is getting already too delayed for timely resort to safeguards, if still not taken care of in time, lawmakers ought to find the aftermath too late to lament for. Besides being conscious for climate discipline across the world, collective efforts on the part of all regional states together are imperative to minimize the damage. Therefore, each one has put hands together to be saved from the doomsday that appears to stand ahead to accelerate a catastrophicend, in the given speed of global climate change. As the largest Himalayan state and its central positioning at the top of the HKH, Nepal has had potential to play a criticalrole to engage regional climate change regime and thereby spearhead climate diplomacy worldwide to play regional capital of the HKH ecosystem. As regional superpower, India has had potential to usurp leadership avatar to this end. With reasoningof his own, the author pleads for better jurisprudence to attain regional environmental integrity inter se- rather than regional environmental integration alone- to defendthe vulnerable HKH ecosystem since the same constitutes common concern of humankind and much more so for themselves. Hence, to quote from Shakespeare, “To be or not to be, that is the question” is reasonable here. While states are engaged in the spree to cause mutually agreed destruction, global climate change- with deadly aftermath- poses the last and final unifier for them to turn United Nations in rhetoric sense o f the term.

Estimation of the Effects of Regional Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Balance of a Basin in the Middle Magdalena Valley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Andres Romero-Duque ◽  
Maria Cristina Arenas-Bautista ◽  
Leonardo David Donado
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

&lt;p&gt;Hydrological cycle dynamics can be simulated through continuous numerical modelling in order to estimate a water budget at different time and spatial scales, taking a specific importance when considering climate change effects on the various processes that take place on a basin. With the purpose of estimating potential impacts of climate change on the basin water balance, the present study takes place on the catchment area of the Carare-Minero river, a basin located in the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia), a zone in which important economic activities unfold such as stockbreeding and agriculture, where regional climate change scenarios were made for the precipitation and temperature variables, along with a continuous hydrological modeling of the basin using the HEC-HMS software. The regional scenarios for the precipitation and temperature were developed through statistical downscaling based on General Circulation Models (GCM) of the sixth phase of the Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), with projections to 2100 for seven of the new set of CO2 emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), that take into account different socioeconomic assumptions for climate policies, with a baseline of 25 years between 1990 and 2014; the emission scenarios evaluated from lowest to highest CO2 emission were SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The obtained data were used as an input for the model of the basin in HEC-HMS obtaining a new water balance for each scenario comparing the results with the baseline case for current conditions, resulting in an evapotranspiration increase due to higher temperatures that, alongside changes in precipitation, produces lower flows for the higher SSP&amp;#8217;s of SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, in contrast with the low emission scenarios of SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 were the changes in temperature and precipitation are less drastic generating minor alterations in the hydrological balance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Key words: Hydrological modeling, Middle Magdalena Valley, regional climate change scenarios, water balance.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

2009 ◽  
Vol 106 (21) ◽  
pp. 8441-8446 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Pierce ◽  
T. P. Barnett ◽  
B. D. Santer ◽  
P. J. Gleckler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Models

scholarly journals Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wegehenkel ◽  
U. Heinrich ◽  
H. Jochheim ◽  
K. C. Kersebaum ◽  
B. Röber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

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