scholarly journals On the Extraction of Microseismic Ground Motion from Analog Seismograms for the Validation of Ocean-Climate Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 1518-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Lecocq ◽  
Fabrice Ardhuin ◽  
Fabienne Collin ◽  
Thierry Camelbeeck
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Good News ◽  
Flood Event ◽  
Ocean Climate ◽  
The North

Abstract We report on a pilot demonstration of the usefulness of analog seismograms to improve the database of ocean storms before the 1980s by providing additional data for the quantitative validation of ocean wave modeling, in particular for extreme events. We present a method for automatic digitization of paper seismograms to extract microseismic ground-motion periods and amplitudes. Each minute of the original paper records is scanned and vectorized. The amplitudes are calibrated based on the original metadata taken from official bulletins. The digitized time series is processed to extract power spectral densities, which are compared with modeled microseisms levels computed using a numerical ocean wave model. As a case study, we focus on one month of data recorded at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) from January to February 1953, around the “Big Flood” event, a tragic storm surge that flooded the lowlands of England, the Netherlands, and Belgium on 1 February 1953. The reconstructed spectrograms for the three components of ground motion show clear storm signatures that we relate to specific sources in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, our models of the Big Flood event based on these data do not result in the expected amplitudes as modeled compared to the observational data when the storm reached its maximum in the southern North Sea. We suggest that the source of microseisms recorded at ROB is related to the primary microseism generated in the North Sea, at periods of 7–8 s. Other discrepancies identified suggest small modifications of the source locations or energy. Reconstructed horizontal and vertical ground motions are coherent. This is a good news for the purpose of present-day analyses of constructing twentieth century ocean-climate models, especially as during much of that time only horizontal seismographs were installed at observatories.

scholarly journals NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy M. Klavans ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Amy C. Clement ◽  
Lisa N. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill

AbstractThe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization, which can capture variability internal to the climate system, and from external radiative forcing. Herein, we show that predictive skill for the NAO in a very large uninitialized multi-model ensemble is commensurate with previously reported skill from a state-of-the-art initialized prediction system. The uninitialized ensemble and initialized prediction system produce similar levels of skill for northern European precipitation and North Atlantic SSTs. Identifying these predictable components becomes possible in a very large ensemble, confirming the erroneously low signal-to-noise ratio previously identified in both initialized and uninitialized climate models. Though the results here imply that external radiative forcing is a major source of predictive skill for the NAO, they also indicate that ocean initialization may be important for particular NAO events (the mid-1990s strong positive NAO), and, as previously suggested, in certain ocean regions such as the subpolar North Atlantic ocean. Overall, we suggest that improving climate models’ response to external radiative forcing may help resolve the known signal-to-noise error in climate models.

scholarly journals The carbon budget of the North Sea

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Thomas ◽  
Y. Bozec ◽  
H. J. W. de Baar ◽  
K. Elkalay ◽  
M. Frankignoulle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
North Sea ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. A carbon budget has been established for the North Sea, a shelf sea on the NW European continental shelf. The carbon exchange fluxes with the North Atlantic Ocean dominate the gross carbon budget. The net carbon budget – more relevant to the issue of the contribution of the coastal ocean to the marine carbon cycle – is dominated by the carbon inputs from rivers, the Baltic Sea and the atmosphere. The North Sea acts as a sink for organic carbon and thus can be characterised as a heterotrophic system. The dominant carbon sink is the final export to the North Atlantic Ocean. More than 90% of the CO2 taken up from the atmosphere is exported to the North Atlantic Ocean making the North Sea a highly efficient continental shelf pump for carbon.

scholarly journals The North Sea Andrea storm and numerical simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1407-1415 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
L. Fernandez ◽  
J. M. Lefèvre ◽  
J. Monbaliu ◽  
A. Toffoli
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Rogue Wave ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Statistics ◽  
The North ◽  
Nonlinear Phase ◽  
Spectral Wave Model ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. A coupling of a spectral wave model with a nonlinear phase-resolving model is used to reconstruct the evolution of wave statistics during a storm crossing the North Sea on 8–9 November 2007. During this storm a rogue wave (named the Andrea wave) was recorded at the Ekofisk field. The wave has characteristics comparable to the well-known New Year wave measured by Statoil at the Draupner platform 1 January 1995. Hindcast data of the storm at the nearest grid point to the Ekofisk field are here applied as input to calculate the evolution of random realizations of the sea surface and its statistical properties. Numerical simulations are carried out using the Euler equations with a higher-order spectral method (HOSM). Results are compared with some characteristics of the Andrea wave record measured by the down-looking lasers at Ekofisk.

scholarly journals The KLIWAS North Sea Climatology. Part I: Processing of the Atmospheric Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remon Sadikni ◽  
Nils H. Schade ◽  
Axel Andersson ◽  
Annika Jahnke-Bornemann ◽  
Iris Hinrichs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The University

AbstractClimatological reference data serve as validation of regional climate models, as the boundary condition for the model runs, and as input for assimilation systems used by reanalyses. Within the framework of the interdisciplinary research program Climate Water Navigation (KLIWAS): Impacts of Climate Change on Waterways and Navigation of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, a new climatology of the North Sea and adjacent regions was developed in an joint effort by the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, the German Weather Service [Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)], and the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC) of the University of Hamburg. Long-term records of monthly and annual mean 2-m air temperature, dewpoint temperature, and sea level pressure data from 1950 to 2010 were calculated on a horizontal 1° × 1° grid. All products were based on quality-controlled data from DWD’s Marine Data Centre. Correction methods were implemented for each parameter to reduce the sampling error resulting from the sparse coverage of observations in certain regions. Comparisons between sampling error estimates based on ERA-40 and the climatology products show that the sampling error was reduced effectively. The climatologies are available for download on the ICDC’s website and will be updated regularly regarding new observations and additional parameters. An extension to the Baltic Sea is in progress.

An Operational System for Predicting Hurricane-Generated Wind Waves in the North Atlantic Ocean*

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yung Y. Chao ◽  
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves ◽  
Hendrik L. Tolman
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract A new wind–wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated waves during the Atlantic hurricane season. A detailed description of this model and a comparison of its performance against the operational western North Atlantic (WNA) wave model during Hurricanes Isidore and Lili, in 2002, are presented. The NAH and WNA models are identical in their physics and numerics. The NAH model uses a wind field obtained by blending data from NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System (GFS) with those from a higher-resolution hurricane prediction model, whereas the WNA wave model uses winds provided exclusively by the GFS. Relative biases of the order of 10% in the prediction of maximum wave heights up to 48 h in advance, indicate that the use of higher-resolution winds in the NAH model provides a successful framework for predicting extreme sea states generated by a hurricane. Consequently, the NAH model has been made operational at NCEP for use during the Atlantic hurricane season.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Limiting Hurricane Intensity to SST in the Atlantic from Observations and GCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 5949-5957 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Sarah E. Strazzo ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger ◽  
Timothy LaRow ◽  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Lower Sensitivity ◽  
Hurricane Intensity ◽  
University Center ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Sensitivity

Abstract A statistical model for the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been developed and a new methodology introduced for estimating the sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to changes in sea surface temperature. Here, the authors use this methodology on observed hurricanes and hurricanes generated from two global climate models (GCMs). Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1981–2010 show a sensitivity of 7.9 ± 1.19 m s−1 K−1 (standard error; SE) when over seas warmer than 25°C. In contrast, hurricanes over the same region and period generated from the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) show a significantly lower sensitivity with the highest at 1.8 ± 0.42 m s−1 K−1 (SE). Similar weaker sensitivity is found using hurricanes generated from the Florida State University Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model with the highest at 2.9 ± 2.64 m s−1 K−1 (SE). A statistical refinement of HiRAM-generated hurricane intensities heightens the sensitivity to a maximum of 6.9 ± 3.33 m s−1 K−1 (SE), but the increase is offset by additional uncertainty associated with the refinement. Results suggest that the caution that should be exercised when interpreting GCM scenarios of future hurricane intensity stems from the low sensitivity of limiting GCM-generated hurricane intensity to ocean temperature.

scholarly journals Volcanic impact on the Atlantic Ocean over the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1439-1455 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Mignot ◽  
M. Khodri ◽  
C. Frankignoul ◽  
J. Servonnat
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Total Solar Irradiance ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
The North

Abstract. The oceanic response to volcanic eruptions over the last 1000 years is investigated with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean, using a fully coupled AOGCM forced by a realistic time series of volcanic eruptions, total solar irradiance (TSI) and atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration. The model simulates little response to TSI variations but a strong and long-lasting thermal and dynamical oceanic adjustment to volcanic forcing, which is shown to be a function of the time period of the volcanic eruptions. The thermal response consists of a fast tropical cooling due to the radiative forcing by the volcanic eruptions, followed by a penetration of this cooling in the subtropical ocean interior one to five years after the eruption, and propagation of the anomalies toward the high latitudes. The oceanic circulation first adjusts rapidly to low latitude anomalous wind stress induced by the strong cooling. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shows a significant intensification 5 to 10 years after the eruptions of the period post-1400 A.D., in response to anomalous atmospheric momentum forcing, and a slight weakening in the following decade. In response to the stronger eruptions occurring between 1100 and 1300, the AMOC shows no intensification and a stronger reduction after 10 years. This study thus stresses the diversity of AMOC response to volcanic eruptions in climate models and discusses possible explanations.

scholarly journals A new balaenopterid species from the Southern North Sea Basin informs about phylogeny and taxonomy of Burtinopsis and Protororqualus (Cetacea, Mysticeti, Balaenopteridae)

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelangelo Bisconti ◽  
Mark E.J. Bosselaers
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analysis ◽  
New Species ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Sea ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Morphological Transformations ◽  
The 19Th Century

Background An extensive radiation can be inferred among balaenopterid mysticetes in the last 10 million years based on a rich fossil record. Many extinct genera and species have been established in the past by the study of fossil rorquals from northern and southern hemispheres. In many cases, the new fossils are used to create new genera. However, in very recent times, new species of known genera have been described that help our understanding of the speciation processes and the biogeography of these whales. Here, a new species of balaenopterid whales is described in order to better understand the past diversity of Balaenopteridae and to analyze its paleobiogeographical implications. As the new species closely resembles a taxon established in the 19th century (i.e., Burtinopsis), a detailed analysis of this taxon was necessary to support the new taxonomic statements of this article. Methods A new partial skeleton including skull and earbones is described and compared to an extended sample of living and fossil mysticete species. A phylogenetic analysis including 355 character states scored in 88 taxa was performed to understand its relationships within the genus Protororqualus, to allow paleobiogeographic inferences and to better understand the relationships of Protororqualus within Balaenopteridae. Maximum parsimony analyses of character evolution were performed to understand morphological transformations within Balaenopteridae. The revision of Burtinopsis was carried out based on detailed descriptions and comparisons of the type materials that were figured and measured. Results Protororqualus wilfriedneesi sp. nov. was established based on a comparative analysis of the skull and earbone morphology. The specimen is dated back to the Zanclean (Lower Pliocene, between c. 5.3 and 3.6 Ma). A taphonomical study of the holotype skeleton revealed evidence of interactions with sharks and fishes before the definitive burial of the carcass. Based on the phylogenetic analysis, the monophyly of the genus Protororqualus was confirmed. Protororqualus wilfriedneesi sp. nov. was more derived than Protororqualus cuvieri suggesting that it resulted from an invasion of the North Sea Basin (and the North Atlantic ocean) from the Mediterranean basin. Several specimens from western and eastern sides of the Atlantic Ocean are described that suggest that Protororqualus wilfriedneesi had a trans-Atlantic distribution in the Pliocene.

Global In-Situ Observations of Essential Climate and Ocean Variables by the Global Drifter Program. Applications and Impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Centurioni ◽  
Verena Hormann
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Ocean Climate ◽  
The North ◽  
Free Data ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
In Situ Observations ◽  
The Impact

<p>Accurate estimates and forecasts of physical and biogeochemical processes at the air-sea interface must rely on integrated in-situ and satellite surface observations of essential Ocean/Climate Variables (EOVs /ECVs). Such observations, when sustained over appropriate temporal and spatial scales, are particularly powerful in constraining and improving the skills, impact and value of weather, ocean and climate forecast models. The calibration and validation of satellite ocean products also rely on in-situ observations, thus creating further positive high-impact applications of observing systems designed for global sustained observations of EOV and ECVs.</p><p>The Global Drifter Program has operated uninterrupted for several decades and constitutes a particular successful example of a network of multiparametric platforms providing observations of climate, weather and oceanographic relevance (e.g. air-pressure, sea surface temperature, ocean currents). This presentation will review the requirements of sustainability of an observing system such as the GDP (i.e. cost effectiveness, peer-review of the observing methodology and of the technology, free data access and international cooperation), will present some key metrics recently used to quantify the impact of drifter observations, and will discuss two prominent examples of GDP regional observations and the transition to operations of novel platforms, such us wind and directional wave spectra drifters, in sparsely sampled regions of the Arabian Sea and of the North Atlantic Ocean.</p>

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