How Good is a Paleoseismic Record of Megathrust Earthquakes for Probabilistic Forecasting?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Acuña ◽  
Gonzalo A. Montalva ◽  
Daniel Melnick
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Future Event ◽  
Earthquake Forecast ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Chile Earthquake ◽  
Hazard Assessments

Abstract Time-dependent earthquake forecast depends on the frequency and number of past events and time since the last event. Unfortunately, only a few past events are historically documented along subduction zones where forecasting relies mostly on paleoseismic catalogs. We address the role of dating uncertainty and completeness of paleoseismic catalogs on probabilistic estimates of forthcoming earthquakes using a 3.6-ka-long catalog including 11 paleoseismic and 1 historic (Mw≥8.6) earthquakes that preceded the great 1960 Chile earthquake. We set the clock to 1940 and estimate the conditional probability of a future event using five different recurrence models. We find that the Weibull model predicts the highest forecasting probabilities of 44% and 72% in the next 50 and 100 yr, respectively. Uncertainties in earthquake chronologies due to missing events and dating uncertainties may produce changes in forecast probabilities of up to 50%. Our study provides a framework to use paleoseismic records in seismic hazard assessments including epistemic uncertainties.

scholarly journals New constraints on the 1922 Atacama, Chile, earthquake from Historical seismograms

2019 ◽  
Vol 219 (1) ◽  
pp. 645-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroo Kanamori ◽  
Luis Rivera ◽  
Lingling Ye ◽  
Thorne Lay ◽  
Satoko Murotani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Great Earthquakes ◽  
Chile Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Research ◽  
Earthquake Research Institute

SUMMARY We recently found the original Omori seismograms recorded at Hongo, Tokyo, of the 1922 Atacama, Chile, earthquake (MS = 8.3) in the historical seismogram archive of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI) of the University of Tokyo. These recordings enable a quantitative investigation of long-period seismic radiation from the 1922 earthquake. We document and provide interpretation of these seismograms together with a few other seismograms from Mizusawa, Japan, Uppsala, Sweden, Strasbourg, France, Zi-ka-wei, China and De Bilt, Netherlands. The 1922 event is of significant historical interest concerning the cause of tsunami, discovery of G wave, and study of various seismic phase and first-motion data. Also, because of its spatial proximity to the 1943, 1995 and 2015 great earthquakes in Chile, the 1922 event provides useful information on similarity and variability of great earthquakes on a subduction-zone boundary. The 1922 source region, having previously ruptured in 1796 and 1819, is considered to have significant seismic hazard. The focus of this paper is to document the 1922 seismograms so that they can be used for further seismological studies on global subduction zones. Since the instrument constants of the Omori seismographs were only incompletely documented, we estimate them using the waveforms of the observed records, a calibration pulse recorded on the seismogram and the waveforms of better calibrated Uppsala Wiechert seismograms. Comparison of the Hongo Omori seismograms with those of the 1995 Antofagasta, Chile, earthquake (Mw = 8.0) and the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake (Mw = 8.3) suggests that the 1922 event is similar to the 1995 and 2015 events in mechanism (i.e. on the plate boundary megathrust) and rupture characteristics (i.e. not a tsunami earthquake) with Mw = 8.6 ± 0.25. However, the initial fine scale rupture process varies significantly from event to event. The G1 and G2, and R1 and R2 of the 1922 event are comparable in amplitude, suggesting a bilateral rupture, which is uncommon for large megathrust earthquakes.

Geometric controls on megathrust earthquakes

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (2) ◽  
pp. 1270-1282
Author(s):  
Steven M Plescia ◽  
Gavin P Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Primary Control ◽  
Slab Geometry ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Maximum Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Maximum Earthquake

SUMMARY The role of subduction zone geometry in the nucleation and propagation of great-sized earthquake ruptures is an important topic for earthquake hazard, since knowing how big an earthquake can be on a given fault is fundamentally important. Past studies have shown subducting bathymetric features (e.g. ridges, fracture zones, seamount chains) may arrest a propagating rupture. Other studies have correlated the occurrence of great-sized earthquakes with flat megathrusts and homogenous stresses over large distances. It remains unclear, however, how subduction zone geometry and the potential for great-sized earthquakes (M 8+) are quantifiably linked—or indeed whether they can be. Here, we examine the potential role of subduction zone geometry in limiting earthquake rupture by mapping the planarity of seismogenic zones in the Slab2 subduction zone geometry database. We build from the observation that historical great-sized earthquakes have preferentially occurred where the surrounding megathrust is broadly planar, and we use this relationship to search for geometrically similar features elsewhere in subduction zones worldwide. Assuming geometry exerts a primary control on earthquake propagation and termination, we estimate the potential size distribution of large (M 7+) earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude along global subduction faults based on geometrical features alone. Our results suggest that most subduction zones are capable of hosting great-sized earthquakes over much of their area. Many bathymetric features previously identified as barriers are indistinguishable from the surrounding megathrust from the perspective of slab curvature, meaning that they either do not play an important role in arresting earthquake rupture or that their influence on slab geometry at depth is not resolvable at the spatial scale of our subduction zone geometry models.

Petrologic and geochemical role of serpentinite in subduction zones and plate interface domains

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 61-64
Author(s):  
Marco Scambelluri ◽  
Enrico Cannaò ◽  
Mattia Gilio ◽  
Marguerite Godard
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Plate Interface

Characteristics of educators’ talk about decontextualised events

2020 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 362-376
Author(s):  
Rebecca Andrews ◽  
Penny Van Bergen
Keyword(s):  
Communication Skills ◽  
Future Event ◽  
Time Points ◽  
Long Day ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Day Care Centres ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Children’S Thinking ◽  
Sydney Australia

This study investigated the characteristics of educators’ talk about decontextualised events with young children in seven early childhood long day care centres in Sydney, Australia. Educators were partnered with up to six children aged between 27 and 60 months. Across two time points, 85 educator–child dyads discussed past and future events. Educators’ use of questions, contextual statements, evaluations and prompts and children’s use of questions, open-ended responses, yes-no responses and spontaneous information statements were examined. Educators’ evaluative statements were highly correlated and educators’ questions were moderately correlated with children’s open-ended responses in past event conversations. Educators’ evaluative statements were highly correlated with children’s open-ended responses in future event conversations and were the only significant predictor for children’s talk. Given the important role of educators in scaffolding children’s thinking and communication skills, the recommended strategies for educators’ talk in decontextualised conversations include: sharing the conversational load, making frequent contextual statements and following the child’s lead/interests.

scholarly journals The role of sulphur on the melting of Ca-poor sediment and on trace element transfer in subduction zones: an experimental investigation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Aziliz Pelleter ◽  
Gaëlle Prouteau ◽  
Bruno Scaillet
Keyword(s):  
Trace Element ◽  
Partial Melting ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Arc Magmas ◽  
Trace Element Contents ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Element Transfer ◽  
High Sediment

Abstract We performed phase equilibrium experiments on a natural Ca-poor pelite at 3 GPa, 750-1000 °C, under moderately oxidizing conditions, simulating the partial melting of such lithologies in subduction zones. Experiments investigated the effect of sulphur addition on phase equilibria and compositions, with S contents of up to ∼ 2.2 wt. %. Run products were characterized for their major and trace element contents, in order to shed light on the role of sulphur on the trace element patterns of melts produced by partial melting of oceanic Ca-poor sediments. Results show that sulphur addition leads to the replacement of phengite by biotite along with the progressive consumption of garnet, which is replaced by an orthopyroxene-kyanite assemblage at the highest sulphur content investigated. All Fe-Mg silicate phases produced with sulphur, including melt, have higher MgO/(MgO+FeO) ratios (relative to S-free/poor conditions), owing to Fe being primarily locked up by sulphide in the investigated redox range. Secular infiltration of the mantle wedge by such MgO and K2O-rich melts may have contributed to the Mg and K-rich character of the modern continental crust. Addition of sulphur does not affect significantly the stability of the main accessory phases controlling the behaviour of trace elements (monazite, rutile and zircon), although our results suggest that monazite solubility is sensitive to S content at the conditions investigated. The low temperature (∼ 800 °C) S-bearing and Ca-poor sediment sourced slab melts show Th and La abundances, Th/La systematics and HFSE signatures in agreement with the characteristics of sediment-rich arc magmas. Because high S contents diminish phengite and garnet stabilities, S-rich and Ca-poor sediment sourced slab melts have higher contents of Rb, B, Li (to a lesser extent), and HREE. The highest ratios of La/Yb are observed in sulphur-poor runs (with a high proportion of garnet, which retains HREE) and beyond the monazite out curve (which retains LREE). Sulphides appear to be relatively Pb-poor and impart high Pb/Ce ratio to coexisting melts, even at high S content. Overall, our results show that Phanerozoic arc magmas from high sediment flux margins owe their geochemical signature to the subduction of terrigenous, sometimes S-rich, sediments. In contrast, subduction of such lithologies during Archean appears unlikely or unrecorded.

Proposed methodology for estimating the magnitude at which subduction megathrust ground motions and source dimensions exhibit a break in magnitude scaling: Example for 79 global subduction zones

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 1271-1297
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Scaling Relations ◽  
Megathrust Earthquakes ◽  
Source Dimensions ◽  
Magnitude Scaling ◽  
Aspect Ratios ◽  
Source Scaling

In this article, I propose a method for estimating the magnitude [Formula: see text] at which subduction megathrust earthquakes are expected to exhibit a break in magnitude scaling of both seismic source dimensions and earthquake ground motions. The methodology is demonstrated by applying it to 79 global subduction zones defined in the literature, including Cascadia. Breakpoint magnitude is estimated from seismogenic interface widths, empirical source scaling relations, and aspect ratios of physically unbounded earthquake ruptures and their uncertainties. The concept stems from the well-established observation that source-dimension and ground motion scaling decreases for shallow continental (primarily strike-slip) earthquakes when rupture exceeds the seismogenic width of the fault. Although a scaling break for megathrust earthquakes is difficult to observe empirically, all of the instrumentally recorded historical [Formula: see text] mega-earthquakes have occurred on subduction zones with [Formula: see text] (8.1–8.9), consistent with an observed break in source scaling relations derived from these same events. The breakpoint magnitudes derived in this study can be used to constrain the magnitude at which the scaling of ground motion is expected to decrease in subduction ground motion prediction equations.

scholarly journals Endothelial cell-related autophagic pathways in Sugen/hypoxia-exposed pulmonary arterial hypertensive rats

2017 ◽  
Vol 313 (5) ◽  
pp. L899-L915 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumiaki Kato ◽  
Seiichiro Sakao ◽  
Takao Takeuchi ◽  
Toshio Suzuki ◽  
Rintaro Nishimura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flow Cytometry ◽  
Endothelial Cell ◽  
Vascular Remodeling ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Causative Role ◽  
Dependent Manner ◽  
Vascular Endothelial ◽  
Pulmonary Vascular Remodeling ◽  
Pulmonary Arterial

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is characterized by progressive obstructive remodeling of pulmonary arteries. However, no reports have described the causative role of the autophagic pathway in pulmonary vascular endothelial cell (EC) alterations associated with PAH. This study investigated the time-dependent role of the autophagic pathway in pulmonary vascular ECs and pulmonary vascular EC kinesis in a severe PAH rat model (Sugen/hypoxia rat) and evaluated whether timely induction of the autophagic pathway by rapamycin improves PAH. Hemodynamic and histological examinations as well as flow cytometry of pulmonary vascular EC-related autophagic pathways and pulmonary vascular EC kinetics in lung cell suspensions were performed. The time-dependent and therapeutic effects of rapamycin on the autophagic pathway were also assessed. Sugen/hypoxia rats treated with the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor blocker SU5416 showed increased right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) and numbers of obstructive vessels due to increased pulmonary vascular remodeling. The expression of the autophagic marker LC3 in ECs also changed in a time-dependent manner, in parallel with proliferation and apoptotic markers as assessed by flow cytometry. These results suggest the presence of cross talk between pulmonary vascular remodeling and the autophagic pathway, especially in small vascular lesions. Moreover, treatment of Sugen/hypoxia rats with rapamycin after SU5416 injection activated the autophagic pathway and improved the balance between cell proliferation and apoptosis in pulmonary vascular ECs to reduce RVSP and pulmonary vascular remodeling. These results suggested that the autophagic pathway can suppress PAH progression and that rapamycin-dependent activation of the autophagic pathway could ameliorate PAH.

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