scholarly journals Will Inequality Affect Growth?: Evidence from USA and China since 1980

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yongqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Income inequality may hinder economic growth is a widespread concern. The results from previous literature are mixed. Although both USA and China is an excellent case study by itself, it is even interesting to compare them given they are the two largest economies in the world, and yet completely different from each other. We employ annual data from 1980 to 2012 and apply cointegration to study the effects of income inequality on real GDP per capita and real GDP of both USA and China. We also include the exchange rate into the model to examine possible effects of depreciation on growth. The main findings are: first, depreciation does not affect the growth of USA. Second, depreciation promotes growth of China in the short-run, but may hurt its growth in the long-run. Third, income inequality will hurt growth of USA in the short-run, while it encourages its growth in the long-run. Finally, income inequality may promote growth of China in both short-run and long-run.

scholarly journals Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ovikuomagbe Oyedele
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

scholarly journals TOURISM-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KENYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Justin Yano ◽  
Joshua Matanda
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to analyze tourism-led growth hypothesis in Kenya’s economy.  Materials and Methods: The descriptive research design was adopted. This study targeted international tourism receipts, employment, economies of scale and capital investments in tourism related economic activities that included hotels and food service activities, wholesale and retail trade, transport and information communication and travel agencies, entertainment and recreation in the period 1980 to 2019.The study used purposive sampling. a sample size of data for 40 years from 1980 to 2019 was used. The data were collected from KNBS, the World Bank and WTTC using a secondary data collection sheet. Using real GDP per capita as the dependent variable and international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments as the independent variables, the study used regression and vector error correction (VEC) to carry out the analysis. The analysis was systematic and begins with diagnostic tests that included Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for homoscedasticity, Jarque-Bera normality test, VIF multi-collinearity test, Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test and Johansen Co-integration test and finally the regression and the vector error correction analysis. Data analysis was done using E-views software. Results: The study results showed that international tourism receipts, tourism related employment and economies of scale positively influence real GDP per capita in both short run and long run equilibrium. Capital investments negatively affected real GDP per capita in the long run but had a positive effect in the short run equilibrium. Granger causality test presented a bi-directional causality between international tourism receipts, tourism related employment, economies of scale and capital investments and real GDP per capita. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The country should enact policies that promote tourism related activities because the benefits derived from tourist expenditures positively influence the growth of the economy. Institutions such as Brand Kenya, Tourism Promotion Council, the Ministry of Tourism and recruitment of international tourism ambassadors should be strengthened to ensure more foreign tourists are attracted into the country.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Capital Development on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL Approach to Co-Integration

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 127-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kidanemariam Gidey Gebrehiwot
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
School Enrolment ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government

The main objective of the study was to investigate the long run and short run impact of human capital on economic growth in Ethiopia (using real GDP per capita, as a proxy for economic growth) over the period 1974/75-2010/2011. The ARDL Approach to Co-integration and Error Correction Model are applied in order to investigate the long-run and short run impact of Human capital on Economic growth. The finding of the Bounds test shows that there is a stable long run relationship between real GDP per capita, education human capital, health human capital, labor force, gross capital formation, government expenditure and official development assistance. The estimated long run model revels that human capital in the form of health (proxied by the ratio of public expenditure on health to real GDP) is the main contributor to real GDP per capita rise followed by education human capital (proxied by secondary school enrolment). Such findings are consistent with the endogenous growth theories which argue that an improvement in human capital (skilled and healthy workers) improves productivity. In the short run, the coefficient of error correction term is -0.7366 suggesting about 73.66 percent annual adjustment towards long run equilibrium. This is another proof for the existence of a stable long run relationship among the variables. The estimated coefficients of the short-run model indicate that education is the main contributor to real GDP per capita change followed by gross capital formation (one period lagged value) and government expenditure (one period lagged value). But, unlike its long run significant impact, health has no significant short run impact on the economy. Even its one period lag has a significant negative impact on the economy. The above results have an important policy implication. The findings of this paper imply that economic performance can be improved significantly when the ratio of public expenditure on health services to GDP increases and when secondary school enrolment improves. Such improvements have a large impact on human productivity which leads to improved national output per capita. Hence policy makers and / or the government should strive to create institutional capacity that increase school enrolment and improved basic health service by strengthening the infrastructure of educational and health institutions that produce quality manpower. In addition to its effort, the government should continue its leadership role in creating  enabling environment that encourage better investment in human capital (education and health) by the private sector.  

China’s Economic Development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence J. Lau
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

Chinese real gross domestic product (GDP) grew from US$369 billion in 1978 to US$12.7 trillion in 2017 (in 2017 prices and exchange rate), at almost 10% per annum, making the country the second largest economy in the world, just behind the United States. During the same period, Chinese real GDP per capita grew from US$383 to US$9,137 (2017 prices), at 8.1% per annum. Chinese economic reform, which began in 1978, consists of two elements—introduction of free markets for goods and services, coupled with conditional producer autonomy, and opening to international trade and direct investment with the rest of the world. In its transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, China employed a “dual-track” approach—with the pre-existing mandatory central plan continuing in force and the establishment of free markets in parallel. In its opening to the world, China set a competitive exchange rate for its currency, made it current account convertible in 1994, and acceded to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. In 2005, China became the second largest trading nation in the world, after the United States. Other Chinese policies complementary to its economic reform include the pre-existing low non-agricultural wage and the limit of one-child per couple, introduced in 1979 and phased out in 2016. The high rate of growth of Chinese real output since 1978 can be largely explained by the high rates of growth of inputs, but there were also other factors at work. Chinese economic growth since 1978 may be attributed as follows: (a) the elimination of the initial economic inefficiency (12.7%), (b) the growth of tangible capital (55.7%) and labor (9.7%) inputs, (c) technical progress (or growth of total factor productivity (TFP)) (8%), and (d) economies of scale (14%). The Chinese economy also shares many commonalities with other East Asian economies in terms of their development experiences: the lack of natural endowments, the initial conditions (the low real GDP per capita and the existence of surplus agricultural labor), the cultural characteristics (thrift, industry, and high value for education), the economic policies (competitive exchange rate, export promotion, investment in basic infrastructure, and maintenance of macroeconomic stability), and the consistency, predictability, and stability resulting from continuous one-party rule.

Inflation and income inequality in developed and developing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 611-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sima Siami-Namini ◽  
Darren Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Nonlinear Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate both linear and/or nonlinear effects of inflation on income inequality and to test the Kuznets hypothesis using panel data of 24 developed countries (DCs) and 66 developing countries (LDCs) observed over the period of 1990–2014. Design/methodology/approach This paper explores the short- and long-run Granger causality relationship between inflation and income inequality using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality is confirmed implying as inflation rises income inequality decreases. Income inequality then reaches a minimum and then starts rising again. The findings of this paper show the existence of Kuznets “U-shaped” hypothesis between income inequality and real GDP per capita in DCs group, and the existence of Kuznets’ inverted “U-shaped” hypothesis for LDCs group. Findings The results indicate that there is no bi-directional Granger causality between inflation and income inequality in the short-run, but, there is bi-directional Granger causality in the long-run for both the DCs and LDCs group. The results help us to assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing income inequality in both the DCs and LDCs group. As a policy implication, monetary policy is often aimed at controlling the annual rate of inflation in the long-run with a short-run focus on reducing output gaps and creating employment. However, managing inflation may have implications for income inequality. Originality/value This is original research paper which analyzes the “U-shaped” and inverted “U-shaped” paths of income inequality and real GDP per capita for large sample of two group countries including developed and developing countries, respectively. Also, this paper analyzes the nonlinear relationship between inflation and income inequality in two groups. Furthermore, this paper investigates the short- and long-run relationship between variables. The results are important for policy makers.

scholarly journals The nexus between stock market development and economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 269-277
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

The study investigated the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Belgium using ARDL approach with annual time series data from 1988 to 2012. Real GDP per capita was used as a proxy for economic growth and stock market capitalization as a ratio of GDP as an approximate measure of stock market development. The relationship between stock market development and economic growth falls into four categories which are (1) stock market-led economic growth, (2) economic growth-led stock market development, (3) feedback effect and (4) neutrality hypothesis where the relationship between the two variables does not exist. Despite the existence of these four views on the relationship between stock market and economic growth, it appears from the literature review done by the author that majority of the empirical evidence support the stock market-led economic growth view. The fact that the topic on the directional causality between stock market and economic growth is still inconclusive is the major motivating factor why the author chose to investigate the relationship between the two variables in Belgium. The study observed that there exist an insignificant long run causality running from stock market development towards economic growth in Belgium. This relationship was not detected in the short run. Moreover, the reverse causality from real GDP per capita to stock market capitalization both in the long and short run was not detected in Belgium. These results are at variance with the majority of the empirical findings reviewed earlier on. It could possibly be that certain conditions that are necessary to enable stock market to significantly positively influence economic growth were not in place in Belgium. Therefore, the study urges the Belgium authorities to put in place the right environment, policies and programmes that enable the stock market to play its role of stimulating economic growth.

scholarly journals Explaining Growth in African Countries – What Matters?

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 467-484
Author(s):  
José Augusto Lopes Da Veiga ◽  
Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes ◽  
Tiago Neves Sequeira ◽  
Marcelo Serra Santos
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

In this paper we analyse the role of the traditional determinants of economic growth in the African countries in the period between 1950 and 2012. Due to the specificity and the single nature of each one of these countries, methods that take into account observed and unobserved heterogeneity are used. Results highlight the relevance of the growth rate of the capital stock to growth in the short-run, which is significant in all regressions. The growth rate of the government to GDP ratio is also important in all but one of the regressions in which it appears, and its growth is harmful for the growth of GDP per capita in the short-run. The variables related to public debt do not present any relationship with economic growth. Human capital has a positive relationship with economic growth in regressions that do not include public debt. The growth rate of real GDP per capita also depends (negatively) on its past value, i.e., the lower the real GDP per capita the higher will be its growth rate.

scholarly journals Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Closed Economies ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

AbstractThis paper sets out to answer the question: Is trade openness important for economic growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries? The policyoriented measures of trade openness used in earlier studies have been argued to be subjective, while the simple outcome-oriented measures only capture one aspect of trade openness, namely: countries’ share of trade. Hence, following Squalli and Wilson (2011), the paper constructs a new outcome-oriented measure of trade openness which captures a country’s share of trade, and its interaction and interconnectedness with the rest of the world. Using fixed-effects regressions for 17 CEE countries over the period 1994 - 2014, the paper finds trade openness to be important for growth within the CEE countries. In particular, the results show that increases in trade openness is associated with increases in real GDP per capita growth within these countries. The results appear significantly the same after we dropped Croatia and Estonia - two historically closed economies.

scholarly journals Investigating the Causality Between Remittances, Infant Mortality, and Economic Growth in India: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Hassan Rashid ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of remittances on human development as measured by infant mortality rates and real GDP per capita in India using time series data for the 1975-2018 period. By employing the Zivot-Andrews single-break unit root test and cointegration analysis using the Johansen procedure, a stable long-run relationship is found among the variables. Consequently, by estimating a VECM with dummy variables, results indicate that, in the long run, both remittances and real GDP per capita have a negative and significant impact on infant mortality rates in India. With infant mortality rate as a dependent variable, the adjustment coefficient for the cointegrating vector is negative and significant as the theory predicts. A Granger Block causality test is also conducted, and results indicate that remittances do not Granger cause real GDP and infant mortality rate; however, it is found that infant mortality rate and real GDP per capita Granger cause remittances. Policy implications are discussed.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Tolulope Temilola Osinubi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

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