All models are wrong, but some are useful: mathematical models at the time of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 115-130
Author(s):  
Roberta Buiani

Epidemiological models have been crucial tools throughout all stages of the 2020-21 Coronavirus pandemic: using promptly available or historical data, they have studied and tried to anticipate its progression, providing valuable guidelines for public health officials, policymakers, and other medical and non-medical audiences. While useful, models are not designed to be infallible, and for this reason, they have been frequently subject to criticism. There is a discrepancy between what models do and how they are presented and perceived. Several juxtaposing factors, including current beliefs about scientific reliability, the role of quantification, and the epistemic values grounding the field, are at the core of this discrepancy. While scientific literacy may play a role in addressing this discrepancy, analyzing and becoming better aware of these factors may suggest long-term strategies to address, acknowledge, and communicate the pandemic’s inherent complexity and stochastic qualities.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Yu-Hin Siu ◽  
Lorand Kristof ◽  
Dawn Elston ◽  
Abe Hafid ◽  
Fred Mather

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant public health emergency that impacts all sectors of healthcare. The negative health outcomes for the COVID-19 infection have been most severe in the frail elderly dwelling in Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes.Methods: An online cross-sectional survey of Ontario LTC Clinicians working in LTC homes in Ontario Canada was conducted to provide the LTC clinician perspective on the preparedness and engagement of the LTC sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the Ontario Long-Term Care Clinicians organization (OLTCC) and was distributed between March 30, 2020 to May 25, 2020. All registered members of the OLTCC and Nurse-led LTC Outreach Teams were invited to participate. The primary outcomes were: 1) the descriptive report of the screening measures implemented, communication and information received, and the preparation of the respondent’s LTC home to a potential COVID-19 outbreak; and 2) the level of agreement, as reported using a five-point Likert scale), to COVID-19 preparedness statements for the respondent’s LTC home was also assessed.Results: The overall response rate was 54% (160/294). LTC homes implemented a wide range of important interventions (e.g. instituting established respiratory isolation protocols, active screening of new LTC admissions, increasing education on infection control processes, encouraging sick staff to take time off, etc). Ample communications pertinent to the pandemic were received from provincial LTC organizations, the government and public health officials. However, the feasibility of implementing public health recommendations, as well as the engagement of the LTC sector in pandemic planning were identified as areas of concern. Medical director status was associated with an increased knowledge of local implementation of interventions to mitigate COVID-19, as well as endorsing increased access to reliable COVID-19 information and resources to manage a potential COVID-19 outbreak in their LTC home.Conclusions: This study highlights the communication to and implementation of recommendations in the Ontario LTC sector, despite some concerns regarding feasibility. Importantly, LTC clinician respondents clearly indicated that better engagement with LTC leaders is needed to plan a coordinated pandemic response.


This chapter begins by covering the UK health profile, then defines the key concepts in primary care and public health, and outlines the generic long-term conditions model. It provides a brief overview of the National Health Service, including differences in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales. It covers current NHS entitlements for people from overseas, commissioning of services, and public health in a broader context. It also describes health needs assessment, and provides an overview of the services in primary care, the role of general practice, and other primary healthcare services. Further services, including those to prevent unplanned hospital admission, aid hospital discharge, those that support children and families, housing, social support, and care homes are all covered.


Author(s):  
Lawrence Gostin

The objectives of this chapter are to help you understand: the impact of legislation, regulations, and litigation on the public’s health; the powers, duties, and restraints imposed by the law on public health officials; the potential of legal change to improve the public’s health; the role of international law and institutions in securing public health in the face of increasing globalization.


Author(s):  
Jan H. Havenga

Despite two decades of visionary policies, problems within South Africa’s freight logistics system remain. Logistics costs are high, the current road and rail solutions will be unable to meet long-term demand for freight transport sustainably, and rural economies still do not have efficient access to the corridor transport network. This article postulates that one of the core reasons for the state of affairs is the inability of government to enable an optimally functioning freight logistics system. The main challenges faced by government are identified and an intervention is proposed to develop an overarching framework and implementation plan to address South Africa’s long-term freight logistics needs.


2012 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 690-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. Hodge ◽  
Lexi C. White ◽  
Andrew Sniegowski

Promoting and protecting the public's health in the United States and abroad are intricately tied to laws and policies. Laws provide support for public health measures, authorize specific actions among public and private actors, and empower public health officials. Laws can also inhibit or restrict efforts designed to improve communal health through protections for individual rights or structural principles of government. Advancing the health of populations through law is complex and subject to constant tradeoffs. This column seeks to explore the role of law in the interests of public health through scholarly and applied assessments across a spectrum of key issues. The first of these assessments focuses on a critical topic in emergency legal preparedness.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saptarshi Bej ◽  
Olaf Wolkenhauer

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, numerous mathematical models have been developed. Reporting artefacts and missing data about asymptomatic spreaders, imply considerable margins of uncertainty for model-based predictions. Epidemiological models can however also be used to investigate the consequences of measures to control the pandemic, reflected in changes to parameter values. We present a SIR-based, SUIR model in which the influence of testing and a reduction of contacts is studied by distinguishing 'Unidentified' and 'Identified' spreaders of infections. The model uses four ordinary differential equations and is kept deliberately simple to investigate general patterns occurring from testing and contact restrictions. The model goes beyond other efforts, by introducing time dependent parameter curves that represent different strategies in controlling the pandemic. Our analysis reveals the effect of 'pro-active' testing for the design of contact restriction measures. By pro-active testing we mean testing beyond those people who show symptoms. The simulations can explain why the timing of contract restrictions and pro-active testing is important. The model can also be used to study the consequence of different strategies to exit from lockdown. Our SUIR model is implemented in Python and is made available through a Juypter Notebooks. This an extensive documentation of the derivation and implementation of the model, as well as transparent and reproducible simulation studies. Our model should contribute to a better understanding of the role of testing and contact restrictions.


Author(s):  
Douglas Allchin

AbstractIronically, flat-Earthers, anti-vaxxers, and climate change naysayers trust in science. Unfortunately, they trust the wrong science. That conundrum lies at the heart of scientific literacy in an age of well-funded commercial and ideological interests and overwhelming digital information. The core question for the citizen-consumer is not philosophically “why trust science?” (Oreskes 2019) but sociologically “who speaks for science?” Teachers can help students learn how to navigate the treacherous territory of inevitably mediated communication and the vulnerabilities of epistemic dependence. Students need to understand the role of science communication practices (media literacy) and the roles of credibility, expertise and honesty and the deceptive strategies used by imitators of science to seem like credible voices for science.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry Yu-Hin Siu ◽  
Lorand Kristof ◽  
Dawn Elston ◽  
Abe Hafid ◽  
Fred Mather

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant public health emergency that impacts all sectors of healthcare. The negative health outcomes for the COVID-19 infection have been most severe in the frail elderly dwelling in Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes. Methods: An online cross-sectional survey of Ontario LTC Clinicians working in LTC homes in Ontario Canada was conducted to provide the LTC clinician perspective on the preparedness and engagement of the LTC sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey questionnaire was developed in collaboration with the Ontario Long-Term Care Clinicians organization (OLTCC) and was distributed between March 30, 2020 to May 25, 2020. All registered members of the OLTCC and Nurse-led LTC Outreach Teams were invited to participate. The primary outcomes were: 1) the descriptive report of the screening measures implemented, communication and information received, and the preparation of the respondent’s LTC home to a potential COVID-19 outbreak; and 2) the level of agreement, as reported using a five-point Likert scale), to COVID-19 preparedness statements for the respondent’s LTC home was also assessed.Results: The overall response rate was 54% (160/294). LTC homes implemented a wide range of important interventions (e.g. instituting established respiratory isolation protocols, active screening of new LTC admissions, increasing education on infection control processes, encouraging sick staff to take time off, etc). Ample communications pertinent to the pandemic were received from provincial LTC organizations, the government and public health officials. However, the feasibility of implementing public health recommendations, as well as the engagement of the LTC sector in pandemic planning were identified as areas of concern. Medical director status was associated with an increased knowledge of local implementation of interventions to mitigate COVID-19, as well as endorsing increased access to reliable COVID-19 information and resources to manage a potential COVID-19 outbreak in their LTC home. Conclusions: This study highlights the communication to and implementation of recommendations in the Ontario LTC sector, despite some concerns regarding feasibility. Importantly, LTC clinician respondents clearly indicated that better engagement with LTC leaders is needed to plan a coordinated pandemic response.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 725-730
Author(s):  
Emily Stanton ◽  
Anita Bell

Health protection is a key function of Public Health England, encompassing emergency preparedness, resilience and response, environmental health, and communicable disease control. The aim of this article is to discuss the role of health protection, its structure in England, and how GPs are integral to the reporting, surveillance and actions to protect public health. Case studies are included. Finally, the article will highlight knowledge that GPs will find useful when considering notifiable infectious diseases and the role of GP and health protection in the NHS Long Term Plan.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Glenn ◽  
Claire Chaumont ◽  
Pablo Villalobos Dintrans

PurposeThe purpose is to understand the role of public leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and advocate for a more active role of public health professionals in helping manage the crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the framework developed by Boin et al. (2005) on crisis leadership. The authors focus on three of the core tasks – sense-making, decision-making and meaning-making – that are relevant to explain the role of public leaders during the ongoing crisis. The authors draw from the experience of three countries – Chile, France and the United States – to illustrate how these tasks were exercised with concrete examples.FindingsSeveral examples of the way in which public leaders reacted to the crisis are found in the selected countries. Countries show different responses to the way they assessed and reacted to the COVID-19 as a crisis, the decisions taken to prevent infections and mitigate consequences, and the way they communicate information to the population.Practical implicationsA better understanding public leadership as a key for better crisis management, particularly for designing policy responses to public health crises. Public health leaders need to assume a more active role in the crisis management process, which also implies the emergence of a new class of public health leaders and a more prominent role for public health in the public eye.Originality/valueThe use of examples from three different countries, as well as the focus on the core leadership tasks during an ongoing crisis help not only assessing the crisis management but also extracting lessons for the coming months, as well as future public health emergencies. The three authors have a first-hand experience on the evolution of the crisis in their countries and the environment, since they are currently living and working in public health in Chile, France and the United States.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document