scholarly journals Optimal Prevention and Treatment Control on SVEIR Type Model Spread of COVID-19

CAUCHY ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-48
Author(s):  
Jonner Nainggolan
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Control Treatment ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Exact Science ◽  
Medical Field ◽  
Treatment Control ◽  
First Case ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
The World

COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the world's health and economy and has resulted in many deaths since the first case occurred in China at the end of 2019. Moreover, The COVID-19 disease spread throughout the world, including Indonesia on March 2, 2020.  Coronavirus quickly spreads through droplets of phlegm through the throat to the lungs. Researchers in the medical field and the exact science are jointly examined the spread, prevention, and optimal control of COVID-19 disease. Due to the prevention of COVID-19, a vaccine has been found  in early 2021, which at the time, the vaccination process was carried out worldwide against COVID-19. This paper examines the spread model of SVEIR-type COVID-19 by considering the vaccination subpopulation. In this study, control of prevention efforts (  and ) and healing efforts  are given and being analyzed with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta approach. Based on numerical simulations, it can be seen that using the controls    and  can reduce the number of infected individuals in the subpopulation compared to those without control. The  control can increase the number of recovered individual subpopulations.Keywords: COVID-19; SVEIR model; optimal control; treatment; vaccination.

scholarly journals Are the upper bounds for new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany useful?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Bock ◽  
Thomas Goetz ◽  
Yashika Jayathunga ◽  
Robert Rockenfeller
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
German States ◽  
The World

At the end of 2019, an outbreak of a new coronavirus, called SARS--CoV--2, was reported in China and later in other parts of the world. First infections were reported in Germany by the end of January and on March 16th the federal government announced a partial lockdown in order to mitigate the spread. Since the dynamics of new infections started to slow down, German states started to relax the confinement measures as to the beginning of May. As a fall back option, a limit of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days was introduced for each city or district in Germany. If a district exceeds this limit, measures to control the spread of the virus should be taken. Based on a multi--patch SEAIRD--type model, we will simulate the effect of choosing a specific upper limit for new infections. We investigate, whether the politically motivated bound is low enough to detect new outbreaks at an early stage. Subsequently, we introduce an optimal control problem to tackle the multi--criteria problem of finding a bound for new infections that is low enough to avoid new outbreaks, which might lead to an overload of the health care system, but is large enough to curb the expected economic losses.

scholarly journals What can other countries learn from South Korea’s COVID-19 responses?

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-93
Author(s):  
Prakash Shahi ◽  
Pasang Devi Tamang ◽  
Yagya Bahadur Rokaya
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Health System ◽  
Early Phase ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Outbreak Situation

The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly growing and has been a major challenge for the health system globally. As of 27 April 2020, 213 country around the world are struggling to combat the spreading the virus with 28,58,635 confirmed cases and 1,96,295 confirmed deaths. The first case in South Korea was identified on 20 Jan 2020 but the number of confirmed cases started to increase rapidly on end of February with total of 7,513 cases reported as of 10 March 2020, second country to have experience outbreak. South Korea’s effort to control the virus combined many approaches, such as organized and no negligence in response, extensive screening, provision of improved information and the use of technology. This experience could provide some valuable lessons for countries on response to control the spread of pandemic disease like COVID-19 or any other outbreak situation in coming days or for those who are yet to face the COVID-19 outbreak so that they can control the disease spread in early phase.

scholarly journals Are the upper bounds for new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany useful?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 242-260
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Bock ◽  
Yashika Jayathunga ◽  
Thomas Götz ◽  
Robert Rockenfeller
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Type Model ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
German States ◽  
The World

Abstract At the end of 2019, an outbreak of a new coronavirus, called SARS–CoV–2, was reported in China and later in other parts of the world. First infection reported in Germany by the end of January 2020 and on March 16th, 2020 the federal government announced a partial lockdown in order to mitigate the spread. Since the dynamics of new infections started to slow down, German states started to relax the confinement measures as to May 6th, 2020. As a fall back option, a limit of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days was introduced for each district in Germany. If a district exceeds this limit, measures to control the spread of the virus should be taken. Based on a multi–patch SEAIRD–type model, we will simulate the effect of choosing a specific upper limit for new infections. We investigate, whether the politically motivated bound is low enough to detect new outbreaks at an early stage. Subsequently, we introduce an optimal control problem to tackle the multi–criteria problem of finding a bound for new infections that is low enough to avoid new outbreaks, which might lead to an overload of the health care system, but is large enough to curb the expected economic losses.

scholarly journals Epidemics and Pandemics in India Since 20th Century - A Brief Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (33) ◽  
pp. 2830-2834
Author(s):  
Suwarna Dangore-Khasbage
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
High Mortality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Health Organization

The outbreak of an infectious disease and its spread beyond geographic boundaries which leads to a high mortality is declared as pandemic. The factors responsible for pandemic are globalization and travel of people across the world for education, employment, business etc. On March 11, 2020 the corona virus outbreak was declared as pandemic by the World Health Organization. Nevertheless, India was one of the countries affected by the coronavirus outbreak. This article describes the epidemics and pandemics in India since 20th century. But, India was a sufferer of few serious pandemics even before that which are mentioned in brief in this article. Every pandemic has some similar and some dissimilar set of characteristics. All the possible precautionary measures should be taken to avoid transmission within the country and to other countries. In this article, the sincere efforts have been put into compilation of all these natural disasters to alert the dental and medical professionals about the mistakes they might have committed in dealing with an outbreak in the past or how they would overcome or face the current issues. Fortunately India has fought against all these calamites bravely and successfully. Nevertheless during COVID-19 also, India is maintaining better control over the disease spread irrespective of its limited resources and dense population. Though overall incidence of new cases is reducing day by day, COVID-19 still exists in India and all over the world. A widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community at a particular time is termed as “endemic’. However, if the outbreak of a disease occurs due to its high infectious potential it can lead to a high mortality rate, and so is declared as a pandemic. The globalization and travel of people across the world is usually responsible for pandemic. India has handled many epidemics and pandemics as revealed by history. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak as pandemic on March 11, 2020. Basically the disease originated in China, as the first case of COVID-19 infection was diagnosed in Wuhan city of China. Large number of cases were detected to be suffering from the same disease in China as it was a highly contagious disease. Presently, the disease has spread all over the world like a storm, affecting most of the countries, with the highest number of infected cases in U.S., Italy and Spain. India is also one of the victim countries. Taking into account the rapid spread of disease COVID 19 is the topic of great worry in India due to its high population density. This article describes the epidemics and pandemics since 20th century. But, India was a sufferer of few serious pandemics even before that such as Cholera Pandemic in 5 phases, Bombay Plague Epidemic and VIth Cholera Pandemic in 19thcentury.

scholarly journals Epidemic Spread Modeling with Time Variant Infective Population Using Pushdown Cellular Automata

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Senthil Athithan ◽  
Vidya Prasad Shukla ◽  
Sangappa Ramachandra Biradar
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Time Data

The world without a disease is a dream of any human being. The disease spread if not controlled could cause an epidemic situation to spread and lead to pandemic. To control an epidemic we need to understand the nature of its spread and the epidemic spread model helps us in achieving this. Here we propose an epidemic spread model which considers not only the current infective population around the population but also the infective population which remain from the previous generations for computing the next generation infected individuals. A pushdown cellular automata model which is an enhanced version of cellular automata by adding a stack component is being used to model the epidemic spread and the model is validated by the real time data of H1N1 epidemic in Abu Dhabi.

Policy Review: Dubai Health Authority’s COVID-19 Rapid Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (Special) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Rapid Response ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
World Health ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Services Delivery ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World

Dubai Health Authority (DHA) is the entity regulating the healthcare sector in the Emirate of Dubai, ensuring high quality and safe healthcare services delivery to the population. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020, indicating to the world that further infection spread is very likely, and alerting countries that they should be ready for possible widespread community transmission. The first case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates was confirmed on 29th of January 2020; since then, the number of cases has continued to grow exponentially. As of 8th of July 2020 (end of the day), 53,045 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed with a death toll of 327 cases. The UAE has conducted over 3,720,000 COVID-19 tests among UAE citizens and residents over the past four months, in line with the government’s plans to strengthen virus screening to contain the spread of COVID-19. There were vital UAE policies, laws, regulations, and decrees that have been announced for immediate implementation to limit the spread of COVID- 19, to prevent panic and to ensure the overall food, nutrition, and well-being are provided. The UAE is amongst the World’s Top 10 for COVID-19 Treatment Efficiency and in the World’s Top 20 for the implementation of COVID-19 Safety measures. The UAE’s mission is to work towards resuming life after COVID-19 and enter into the recovery phases. This policy research paper will discuss the Dubai Health Authority’s rapid response initiatives towards combating the control and spread of COVID-19 and future policy implications and recommendations. The underlying factors and policy options will be discussed in terms of governance, finance, and delivery.

ANTI-CANCER COMPOUNDS ISOLATED FROM SOFT CORAL SINULARIA CRUCIATA - ALCYONIIDAE

2012 ◽  
pp. 84-89
Author(s):  
Quoc Hung Vo ◽  
Nguyen Phuong Nhi Doan ◽  
Dinh Quynh Phu Nguyen ◽  
Thi Dieu Tram Ho ◽  
Thi Hoai Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Soft Coral ◽  
Normal Phase ◽  
Ionization Mass ◽  
Medical Field ◽  
Bioactive Substances ◽  
Anti Cancer ◽  
The World ◽  
Pure Compounds ◽  
Layer Chromatography

Objectives: Nowadays, bioactive substances isolated from marine organisms which are abundant and varied in Vietnamese sea attracted more and more the attention of scientists in the world and Vietnam as well. We have studied on soft coral Sinularia cruciata – Alcyoniidae, which has never been studied in Vietnam before, to find substances which are useful in medical field, especially in anti-cancer therapy. Materials and method: Specimens of soft coral Sinularia cruciata were collected from Con Co, Quang Tri province in May 2011. Pure compounds were isolated by using Thin Layer Chromatography; Column Chromatography normal phase and inverse phase; Shephadex LH 20. Structures of them were determined by spectral data of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR), Electrospray Ionization Mass Spectrometry (ESI-MS). Results & Conclusion: Structures of 4 compounds were identified: (1) 5.8-epidioxycholest-6-en-3-ol (2) Cholesterol (3) 1-O-hexadecyl-glycerol (Chimyl alcohol) (4) Glycerol 1-O-octadecyl ether (Batyl alcohol). The substance (1) was demonstrated to have strong anti-cancer effects in previous study. Key words Sinularia cruciata, Alcyoniidae, 5,8-epidioxycholest-6-en-3-ol, soft coral, cancer.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Experiences in China and Implications for its Prevention and Treatment Worldwide

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 410-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning-Ning Liu ◽  
Jing-Cong Tan ◽  
Jingquan Li ◽  
Shenghui Li ◽  
Yong Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
International Community ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
History Of

The outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 originally emerged in Wuhan in December 2019. As of March 22, 2020, the disease spread to 186 countries, with at least 305,275 confirmed cases. Although there has been a decline in the spread of the disease in China, the prevalence of COVID-19 around the world remains serious despite containment efforts undertaken by national authorities and the international community. In this article, we systematically review the brief history of COVID-19 and its epidemic and clinical characteristics, highlighting the strategies used to control and prevent the disease in China, which may help other countries respond to the outbreak. This pandemic emphasizes the need to be constantly alert to shifts in both the global dynamics and the contexts of individual countries, making sure that all are aware of which approaches are successful for the prevention, containment and treatment of new diseases, and being flexible enough to adapt the responses accordingly.

Potential Antimicrobial Peptides Elucidation From The Marine Bacteria

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adyasa Barik ◽  
Pandiyan Rajesh ◽  
Manthiram Malathi ◽  
Vellaisamy Balasubramanian
Keyword(s):  
Antimicrobial Peptide ◽  
Marine Bacteria ◽  
Unnatural Amino Acids ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Medical Field ◽  
The World ◽  
Pathogenic Microbes ◽  
Antimicrobial Peptide Resistance ◽  
Significant Attention

: In recent years, over use of antibiotics has been raising its head to a serious problem all around the world as pathogens become drug resistant and create challenges to the medical field. This failure of most potent antibiotics that kill pathogens increases the thirst for research to look further way of killing pathogens. It has been led to the findings of antimicrobial peptide which is the most potent peptide to destroy pathogens. This review gives special emphasis to the usage of marine bacteria and other microorganisms for antimicrobial peptide (AMP) which are eco friendly as well as a developing class of natural and synthetic peptides with a wide spectrum of targets to pathogenic microbes. Consequently, a significant attention has been paid mainly to (i) the structure and types of anti microbial peptides and (ii) mode of action and mechanism of antimicrobial peptide resistance to pathogens. In addition to this, the designing of AMPs has been analysed thoroughly for reducing toxicity and developing better potent AMP. It has been done by the modified unnatural amino acids by amidation to target the control of biofilm and persister cell.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document