scholarly journals Essays on boundedly rational expectations in macroeconomics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Tim Hagenhoff

What are the implications of simple deviations from rational expectations for macroeconomic dynamics, monetary policy, consumption decisions and labor markets? Which biases underly even sophisticated survey expectations? I aim to answer these questions by building upon simple mathematical models of expectations that are boundedly rational and generate some disagreement across expectations. While monetary policy should be extraordinarily hawkish if it wants to control inflation under such expectations, it also generates substantial dispersion in consumption and wealth. Further, the sluggishness of labor market variables may be explained by sluggish expectations that affect, for instance, wage bargaining. Finally, expectations of professional forecasters are intrinsically persistent, depend on the last observed consensus forecast and also extrapolate current news more than would be rational.

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Paolo Merlino

This paper studies how search externalities and wage bargaining distort vacancy creation and the allocation of workers to jobs in markets with two-sided heterogeneity. To do so, I propose a model of a frictional labor market where heterogeneous workers decide which job to look for and firms decide which technology to adopt. At equilibrium, there is perfect segmentation across sectors, which is determined by a unique threshold of workers' productivity. This threshold is inefficient because of participation and composition externalities. The Pigouvian tax scheme that decentralizes optimal sorting shows that these externalities have opposite signs. Furthermore, their relative strength depends on the distribution of workers' skills, so that when there are many (few) skilled workers, too many (few) high-technology jobs are created.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Blanchard ◽  
Jordi Galí

We construct a utility-based model of fluctuations with nominal rigidities and unemployment. We first show that under a standard utility specification, productivity shocks have no effect on unemployment in the constrained efficient allocation. That property is also shown to hold, despite labor market frictions, in the decentralized equilibrium under flexible prices and wages. Inefficient unemployment fluctuations arise when we introduce real-wage rigidities. As a result, in the presence of staggered price setting by firms, the central bank faces a trade-off between inflation and unemployment stabilization, which depends on labor market characteristics. We draw the implications for optimal monetary policy. (JEL E12, E24, E52)


1998 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben Iversen

The effects of financial capital mobility on monetary policy autonomy are relatively well understood, but the importance of particular monetary regimes in distinct national-institutional settings is not. This article is a theoretical and empirical exploration of the effects of monetary policy regimes on unemployment in different national wage-bargaining settings. Based on a rational expectations, two-stage game of the interaction between the wage behavior of labor unions and the monetary policies of governments, I argue that monetary policies have real (employment) effects in all but the most decentralized bargaining systems. Specifically, in intermediately centralized bargaining systems a credible government commitment to a nonaccommodating monetary policy rule will deter militant wage behavior with salutary effects on unemployment. In highly centralized systems, by contrast, restrictive monetary policies will clash with unions' pursuit of wage-distributive goals and produce inferior employment performance. Only in highly fragmented bargaining systems is money “neutral” in the sense that employment performance is unaffected by monetary regimes. The model has clear consequences for the optimal design of central banks and collective bargaining arrangements and suggests new ways to study institutional change (hereunder the causal effect of increasingly globalized capital markets). The argument is supported by pooled time-series data for fifteen OECD countries over a twenty-one-year period.


2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 613-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
THEODORE PANAGIOTIDIS ◽  
GIANLUIGI PELLONI

The nonlinearity of macroeconomic processes is becoming an increasingly important issue at both the theoretical and empirical levels. This trend holds for labor market variables as well. The reallocation theory of unemployment relies on nonlinearities. At the same time there is mounting empirical evidence of business cycles asymmetries. Thus the assumption of linearity/nonlinearity becomes crucial for the corroboration of labor market theories. This paper turns the microscope on the assumption of linearity and investigates the presence of asymmetries in aggregate and disaggregate labor market variables. The assumption of linearity is tested using five statistical tests for U.S. and Canadian unemployment rates and growth rates of the employment sectoral shares of construction, finance, manufacturing, and trade. An AR(p) model was used to remove any linear structure from the series. Evidence of nonlinearity is found for the sectoral shares with all five statistical tests in the U.S. case but not at the aggregate level. The results for Canada are not clear-cut. Evidence of unspecified nonlinearity is found in the unemployment rate and in the sectoral shares. Overall, important asymmetries are found in disaggregated labor market variables in the univariate setting. The linearity hypothesis was also examined in a multivariate framework. Evidence is provided that important asymmetries exist and a linear VAR cannot capture the dynamics of employment reallocation.


2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Bazzana

This paper proposes a financial accelerator framework to study the effects of heterogeneous and bounded rational expectations on macroeconomic dynamics. The paper examines the fluctuations effects departing from the rational expectations hypothesis in order to understand if there are significant implications on macroeconomic volatility and policy prescriptions. The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability and inflation dynamics depend on the chosen set of forecasting rules, as well as on the monetary policy adopted. The model shows that no monetary policy is able to quickly stabilize the system, as some fluctuations persist. Central banks face a trade-off between macro-volatility and speed of convergence to the steady state. This result offers some ground for fiscal policies aiming to prompt system stability. In addition, the analysis reveals a counterintuitive result confirming the “less-is-more” effect: increasing the decision-making and computational abilities of the agents may not lead the system to converge to the preferable steady state.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-105
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Vasilev

AbstractWe introduce “fair” wages in a general-equilibrium model where worker’s effort is unobservable and investigate whether such a mechanism can quantitatively account for the degree of real wage rigidity in the Bulgarian labor markets, as documented in Lozev, Vladova, and Paskaleva (2011) and Paskaleva (2016). In contrast to Danthine and Kurmann (2004), we internalize the effect that past wages have on the current effort level. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data (1999-2016), and quantify the effect of technological shocks on hours and wages in the theoretical setup. Overall, the calibrated model with “fair” wages performs poorly when it comes to the relative volatilities of labor market variables. This is because aggregate labor market conditions, as proxied by the employment rate and past aggregate wages, turn out not to be quantitatively important for business cycles in Bulgaria.


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Contreras Delgado

Resumen:Este artículo examina los fa c t o res internos y externos a una localidad que son copartícipes en la estructuración y reestructuración de su mercado de trabajo local. A partir de la revisión de la historia social y económica del lugar, se destaca su tránsito de enclave minero a lugar de residencia de mineros y trabajadores de maquiladoras. En este caso, se presenta la constitución de los mercados de trabajo locales como un resultado del encuentro de las condiciones del lugar de residencia de los trabajadores y el lugar donde se encuentra el centro de trabajo. De aquí que la movilidad laboral geográfica aparezca como una de las tácticas de los sujetos ante una situación de desempleo.Palabras clave: Mercado de trabajo, Minería, Maquiladoras, Mineros, Movilidad laboral, Desempleo.Abstract:This article examines the internal and external local factors shaping the structuring and restructuring of a local labor market. By reviewing the social and economic history of the community, this article underlines its transition from a mining setting to a residence place for miners and maquila workers. In this case, the constitution of local labor markets is presented as a result of the condition encounter of both workers residence place and the location of the work place. This is a reason explaining why geographical labor mobility comes to be an actor tactic to face unemployment.Key words: Labor market, Mining, Export-oriented industry, Miners, Labor mobility, Unemployment.


2021 ◽  
pp. 107755872110129
Author(s):  
Mark K. Meiselbach ◽  
Matthew D. Eisenberg ◽  
Ge Bai ◽  
Aditi Sen ◽  
Gerard F. Anderson

In concentrated labor markets, where workers have fewer employers to choose from, employers may exploit their monopsony power by contributing less to workers’ health benefits. This study examined if labor market concentration was associated with higher worker contributions to health plan premiums. We combined publicly available data from the Census to calculate labor market concentration and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Insurance/Employer Component to determine premium contributions from 2010 to 2016 for metropolitan areas. After controlling for year fixed-effects and market characteristics, we found that higher labor market concentration was associated with higher worker contributions to health plan premiums, lower take-home income, and no change in employer contributions to premiums, consistent with the hypothesis that greater labor market concentration is associated with less generous health benefits. When evaluating the effects of mergers and acquisitions on labor markets, regulatory agencies should critically assess worker contributions to health insurance premiums.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7926
Author(s):  
Bharman Gulati ◽  
Stephan Weiler

This paper explores the role of local labor market dynamics on the survival of new businesses. The characteristics of the local labor market are likely to influence the survival of new businesses, the level of entrepreneurship, and the resilience of the regional economy. We apply portfolio theory to evaluate employment-based and income-based measures of risk-and-return trade-offs in local labor markets on new business survival in the United States. Our results show that volatility in local labor markets has a positive impact on new business survival, especially in Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The results are robust across different timeframes, including during economic downturns, thus highlighting the contribution of new businesses in developing the resilience of the local economy, and further promoting sustainable regional economic development.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document