scholarly journals Modified SIR Compartmental Epidemic Model with Social Distancing and Hospital Saturation Applied to the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-287
Author(s):  
V. R. da Silva ◽  
◽  
O. H. Menin ◽  

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in the first months of 2020 overburdened health systems worldwide. The absence of vaccines led public authorities to respond to the pandemic by adopting nonpharmaceutical interventions, mainly social distancing policies. Yet concerns have been raised on the economic impact of such measures. Considering the impracticability of conducting controlled experiments to assess the effectiveness of such interventions, mathematical models have played an essential role in helping decision makers. Here we present a simple modified SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model that includes social distancing and two extra compartments (hospitalized and dead due to the disease). Our model also incorporates the potential increase in the mortality rate due to the health system saturation. Results from numerical experiments corroborate the striking role of social distancing policies in lowering and delaying the epidemic peak, thus reducing the demand for intensive health care and the overall mortality. We also probed into optimal social distancing policies that avoid the health system saturation and minimize the economic downturn.

Heritage ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 3065-3080
Author(s):  
Antonella Lerario

The rapid spread of the COVID pandemic is deeply changing people’s lives and upsetting consolidated models and lifestyles. The social distancing measures for the reduction of contagion have been heavily affecting people’s daily experiences, such as for example the public’s relationship with cultural resources. Museums, in particular, are paying the highest price for that, forced to find new forms for heritage fruition, thus representing an emblematic case. Taking its steps from the analysis of the pandemic’s effects on global museum heritage and of museums’ response, the article focuses then on ICTs’ role as communication languages between heritage and its audiences in the solutions adopted, and on their suitability to the changed context. Finally, reflections on structural and contextual aspects of the dialogue between cultural resources and their public, beyond strictly technological matters, are proposed, to highlight the real extent of the challenges facing the museum sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (31) ◽  
pp. e2026731118
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Alexander Rakowski ◽  
Jonathan Antonio Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
...  

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries but could often be controlled with nonpharmaceutical interventions including social distancing. We analyzed deidentified Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March and November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory, we estimated the contact index (CX), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts. We found that CX, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predictor for the effective reproduction number R derived from case numbers. A high correlation between CX and R recorded more than 2 wk later allows assessment of social behavior well before changes in case numbers become detectable. By construction, the CX quantifies the role of superspreading and permits assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CX value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use that value to leverage the social-distancing interventions for the coming months.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah A Nowak ◽  
Pedro Nascimento de Lima ◽  
Raffaele Vardavas

The COVID-19 pandemic has called for swift action from local governments, which have instated Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to curb the spread of SARS-Cov-2. The quick and decisive decision to save lives through blunt instruments has raised questions about the conditions under which decision-makers should employ mitigation or suppression strategies to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. More broadly, there are still debates over which set of strategies should be adopted to control different pandemics, and the lessons learned for SARS-Cov-2 may not apply to a new pathogen. While curbing SARS-Cov-2 required blunt instruments, it is unclear whether a less-transmissible and less-deadly emerging pathogen would justify the same response. This paper illuminates this question using a parsimonious transmission model by formulating the social distancing lives vs. livelihoods dilemma as a boundary value problem. In this setup, society balances the costs and benefits of social distancing contingent on the costs of reducing transmission relative to the burden imposed by the disease. To the best of our knowledge, our approach is distinct in the sense that strategies emerge from the problem structure rather than being imposed a priori. We find that the relative time-horizon of the pandemic (i.e., the time it takes to develop effective vaccines and treatments) and the relative cost of social distancing influence the choice of the optimal policy. Unsurprisingly, we find that the appropriate policy response depends on these two factors. We discuss the conditions under which each policy archetype (suppression vs. mitigation) appears to be the most appropriate.


2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 34-66
Author(s):  
Joyce Valdovinos

The provision of water services has traditionally been considered a responsibility of the state. During the late 1980s, the private sector emerged as a key actor in the provision of public services. Mexico City was no exception to this trend and public authorities awarded service contracts to four private consortia in 1993. Through consideration of this case study, two main questions arise: First, why do public authorities establish partnerships with the private sector? Second, what are the implications of these partnerships for water governance? This article focuses, on the one hand, on the conceptual debate of water as a public and/or private good, while identifying new trends and strategies carried out by private operators. On the other hand, it analyzes the role of the state and its relationships with other actors through a governance model characterized by partnerships and multilevel networks.Spanish La provisión del servicio del agua ha sido tradicionalmente considerada como una responsabilidad del Estado. A finales de la década de 1980, el sector privado emerge como un actor clave en el suministro de servicios públicos. La ciudad de México no escapa a esta tendencia y en 1993 las autoridades públicas firman contratos de servicios con cuatro consorcios privados. A través de este estudio de caso, dos preguntas son planteadas: ¿Por qué las autoridades públicas establecen partenariados con el sector privado? ¿Cuáles son las implicaciones de dichos partenariados en la gobernanza del agua? Este artículo aborda por una parte, el debate conceptual del agua como bien público y/o privado, identificando nuevas tendencias y estrategias de los operadores privados. Por otra parte, se analizan el rol y las relaciones del Estado con otros actores a través de un modelo de gobernanza, definido en términos de partenariados y redes multi-niveles.French Les services de l'eau ont été traditionnellement considérés comme une responsabilité de l'État. À la fin des années 1980, le secteur privé est apparu comme un acteur clé dans la fourniture de certains services publics. La ville de Mexico n'a pas échappé à cette tendance et en 1993, les autorités publiques ont signé des contrats de services avec quatre consortiums privés. À travers cette étude de cas, nous nous interrogerons sur deux aspects : pourquoi les autorités publiques établissentelles des partenariats avec le secteur privé ? Quelles sont les implications de ces partenariats sur la gouvernance de l'eau ? Cet article s'intéresse, d'une part, au débat conceptuel sur l'eau en tant que bien public et/ou privé, en identifiant les tendances nouvelles et les stratégies menées par les opérateurs privés. D'autre part y sont analysés le rôle de l'État et ses relations avec d'autres acteurs à travers un modèle de gouvernance, défini en termes de partenariats, et des réseaux multi-niveaux.


Author(s):  
Roman Kotsan

The article considers smuggling as economic crime in the Soviet-Polish border in the interwar period. The reasons for smuggling activities are studied and summarized. Range of smuggled goods is shown. The number of arrested smugglers, their nationality, the value of seized goods both from Poland and the Soviet Union are investigated. Smuggling as a political phenomenon in the Soviet-Polish border in 1921-1939 is under study. The use of smugglers by the intelligence agencies of both Poland and the USSR are emphasized. The role of public authorities of both abovementioned countries in the fight against smuggling, namely Border Guard Corps from Poland; border guards, customs, security services and local Soviet authorities on the part of the USSR are studied. The influence of anti smuggling measures (increased criminal liability, limitation of private capital in trade, strengthen of the state borders protection) on its amount decrease is studied. Keywords: State border, smuggling, crime, scouting, Poland, USSR


Urban Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Till Koglin ◽  
Lucas Glasare

This paper evaluates the history and cycling accessibility of Nova, a shopping centre established in Lund, Sweden, in 2002. The current situation was also analysed through observation and a literature review. Moreover, the study conducted a closer analysis of the history and role of the municipality based on further literature study and interviews with officials. The conclusion of the analysis indicates poor and unsafe bikeways caused by conflicts of interest between politicians, officials, landowners and the general public. It also depicts a situation in which the municipality’s master plan has been ignored, and, in contrast to the local goals, cycling accessibility at Nova has seen no significant improvement since the shopping centre was first established. The reasons for this, arguably, are a relatively low budget for bikeway improvements in the municipality, as well as a situation in which decision-makers have stopped approaching the subject, as a result of the long and often boisterous conflicts it has created in the past. Lastly, it must be noted that it is easy to regard the whole process of Nova, from its establishment to the current situation, as being symptomatic of the power structures between drivers and cyclists that still affect decision-makers at all levels.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 754-754
Author(s):  
Brian de Vries ◽  
Gloria Gutman ◽  
Helen Kwan ◽  
Katrina Jang ◽  
Shimae Soheilipour ◽  
...  

Abstract Focus groups were held with family/decision makers of residents in an exclusively Chinese (EC; N=7) and a multi-ethnic (ME; N=8) care home, as well as South Asian (SA; n = 5) and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender caregivers (LGBT; n = 5) who had/have a loved one in a care home. Shared themes across groups included the role of the care home in Advance Care Planning (ACP) discussions, the timing of such discussions (i.e., at admission), and the extent to which another person was available and appropriate for such discussions. Issues unique to groups included superstition and the equation of ACP with funeral planning (EC), family history and regrets about not having planned (ME), gender differences and the need for education about ACP (SA) and the absence of traditional family among LGBT older adults. These themes highlight the challenges in ACP among diverse populations and the need for targeted interventions.


Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alicja Buczek ◽  
Weronika Buczek

Increased human mobility elevates the risk of exposure of companion animals travelling with their owners or imported from other regions to tick attacks. In this study, we highlight the potential role of dogs and cats taken for tourist trips or imported animals in the spread of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. The Rhipicephalus sanguineus tick, which is a vector of numerous pathogens causing diseases in animals and humans, is imported most frequently from endemic areas to many European countries. Additionally, alien tick species with high epizootic and epidemiological importance can be imported on dogs from other continents. Companion animals play an even greater role in the spread of autochthonous tick species and transmission of tick pathogens to other animals and humans. Although the veterinary and medical effects of the parasitism of ticks carried by companion animals travelling with owners or imported animals are poorly assessed, these animals seem to play a role in the rapid spread of tick-borne diseases. Development of strategies for protection of the health of companion animals in different geographic regions should take into account the potential emergence of unknown animal tick-borne diseases that can be transmitted by imported ticks.


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