scholarly journals Predicting the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number using bulk contact data from mobile phones

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (31) ◽  
pp. e2026731118
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Alexander Rakowski ◽  
Jonathan Antonio Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries but could often be controlled with nonpharmaceutical interventions including social distancing. We analyzed deidentified Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March and November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory, we estimated the contact index (CX), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts. We found that CX, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predictor for the effective reproduction number R derived from case numbers. A high correlation between CX and R recorded more than 2 wk later allows assessment of social behavior well before changes in case numbers become detectable. By construction, the CX quantifies the role of superspreading and permits assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CX value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use that value to leverage the social-distancing interventions for the coming months.

scholarly journals Forecasting the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number using bulk contact data from mobile phones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sten Rüdiger ◽  
Stefan Konigorski ◽  
Jonathan Edelman ◽  
Detlef Zernick ◽  
Alexander Thieme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Contact Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Over the last months, cases of SARS-CoV-2 surged repeatedly in many countries and could often be controlled with non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing. We analyzed de-identified GPS tracking data from 1.15 to 1.4 million cell phones in Germany per day between March-November 2020 to identify encounters between individuals and statistically evaluate large-scale contact behavior. Using graph sampling theory we estimated the contact index (CI), a metric for number and heterogeneity of contacts and found that the contact index, and not the total number of contacts, is an accurate predsictor for the effective reproduction number R. A high correlation between CI and R occurring more than two weeks later allows timely assessment of the social behavior well before the infections become detectable. The CI quantifies the role of superspreading and allows assigning risks to specific contact behavior. We provide a critical CI-value beyond which R is expected to rise above 1 and propose to use it to leverage the social distancing interventions for the coming months.

scholarly journals Languages and Context Issues of ICTs for a New Role of Museums in the COVID-19 Era

Heritage ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 3065-3080
Author(s):  
Antonella Lerario
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Resources ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Daily Experiences ◽  
The Social ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
People’S Daily ◽  
People's Daily

The rapid spread of the COVID pandemic is deeply changing people’s lives and upsetting consolidated models and lifestyles. The social distancing measures for the reduction of contagion have been heavily affecting people’s daily experiences, such as for example the public’s relationship with cultural resources. Museums, in particular, are paying the highest price for that, forced to find new forms for heritage fruition, thus representing an emblematic case. Taking its steps from the analysis of the pandemic’s effects on global museum heritage and of museums’ response, the article focuses then on ICTs’ role as communication languages between heritage and its audiences in the solutions adopted, and on their suitability to the changed context. Finally, reflections on structural and contextual aspects of the dialogue between cultural resources and their public, beyond strictly technological matters, are proposed, to highlight the real extent of the challenges facing the museum sector.

scholarly journals Acupressure: An Effective and Feasible Alternative Treatment for Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 216495612110580
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Alex Do ◽  
Molly J Mallory ◽  
Dietlind L Wahner-Roedler ◽  
Tony Y Chon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Integrative Medicine ◽  
Alternative Treatment ◽  
Therapeutic Approach ◽  
Previous Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Feasible Alternative

Anxiety is highly reported during the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of acupressure for anxiety is a common practice in integrative medicine, and previous literature has shown that acupressure can be an effective and feasible alternative treatment for decreasing anxiety. Given the social distancing requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic, it appears reasonable to assume that acupressure may be especially suited to treat anxiety under these circumstances. However, there has been relatively little reported use of acupressure for anxiety during the pandemic. This viewpoint aims to highlight the possible role of acupressure as a self-administered therapeutic approach for anxiety amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and to outline key areas for future research.

scholarly journals Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0238268
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Veronika Rypdal ◽  
Per Kristen Jakobsen ◽  
Elinor Ytterstad ◽  
Ola Løvsletten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
After School ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Influenza Pandemics ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Secondary Objective ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Background To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic. Objective This study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number (R). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools. Methods We used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Results We found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04–0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01–0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what has previously been estimated for influenza pandemics. Conclusion We found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R-estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have closed schools, planned interventions, such as the opening of selected schools, can be useful to infer general knowledge about children-to-children transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Physiological responses of the Australian cattle dog to mustering exercise

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
B A Hampson ◽  
C M McGowan
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Physiological Responses ◽  
Exercise Physiology ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Positive Linear Relationship ◽  
Global Positioning ◽  
Working Dogs ◽  
Gps Devices ◽  
Work Done

AbstractThe aim of this study was to determine the heart rate (HR) and work variables of working cattle dogs during actual mustering exercise using a global positioning satellite (GPS) tracking unit‡ with an integrated HR monitor§. The GPS units allowed tracking of seven different Collie and Kelpie working cattle dogs over a total of ten sessions while employed in their usual role of mustering cattle in three locations in Queensland, Australia. Speed, distance and HR data were collected from the dogs during mustering in a variety of working situations. The working dogs covered distances between 13.3 and 30.2 km during mustering sessions ranging from 1 h 59 min to 4 h 24 min at working speeds of up to 43.7 km h− 1. Working temperatures ranged from 29 to 38°C. HR during working exercise ranged between 120 and 237 bpm and was above 180 bpm for 51–68% of the duration of work sessions. There was a positive linear relationship between speed and HR until HRmax (speed 26.0 km h− 1, 233 ± 4.2 bpm), then HR plateaued (R2 = 97.14%, P < 0.001). This study has documented the type of work done by cattle dogs and has shown that GPS devices and HR monitors can be utilized in field conditions to assess the exercise physiology of dogs.

scholarly journals The Role of Social Networks During the COVID-19 Lockdown: Real-Life Social Distancing Vs Virtual Interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Donata Tania Vergura ◽  
Beatrice Luceri ◽  
Cristina Zerbini
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Emotional Instability ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World

Online social networks have become one of the most widely used sources of information in the world and also an important part of our daily life. A huge boost to their spreading came with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. As social distancing and lockdown orders due to COVID-19 health emergency grew more pervasive, individuals began to spend more time online and to use social networks (SNs) to keep up to date regarding the spread of pandemic and also to maintain communication with friends and family and reduce isolation. Given these evidences, the present study aims to investigate the social supporting role of SNs during the pandemic emergency. Specifically, it intends to analyze (a) the use of SNs as a means of interaction in the face of the social containment imposed by the COVID-19 spreading, and (b) the factors (homophily, trust, loneliness, and emotional instability) that affect such use. An online survey with a sample of 194 Italian people was conducted. Structural equation modelling was used to estimate the model proposed. Results revealed that sense of belonging to SNs had a strong impact on search for social support and is, in turn, positively influenced by trust in SNs and homophily. Emotional instability also increased the search for social support. The study contributes both theoretically and empirically to the understanding of the role of SNs in influencing individual behavior. As the use of SNs continues to spread around the world, understanding why consumers rely in SNs and what gratifications they receive from them is undoubtedly of interest for both academics and practitioners.

scholarly journals Modelling Suggests Limited Change in the Reproduction Number from Reopening Norwegian Kindergartens and Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Veronika Gjertsen Rypdal ◽  
Per Kirsten Jakobsen ◽  
Elinor Ytterstad ◽  
Ola Lovsletten ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
After School ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Influenza Pandemics ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Secondary Objective ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Background: To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic. Objective: This study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number (R). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools. Methods: We used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsoe, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Results: We found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04-0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01-0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what Ferguson et al. have previously estimated for influenza pandemics [1]. Conclusion: We found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R-estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have not opened schools yet, planned interventions, such as the opening of selected schools, can be useful to infer general knowledge about children-to-children transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Social Distancing in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-341
Author(s):  
Maria-Lucia Rusu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Critical Period ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control And Management ◽  
Role Of The Government ◽  
Social Level

AbstractThe current COVID-19 pandemic has led to a reconfiguration of the social paradigm and has brought about a challenge in terms of social distancing during this critical period. Dynamic and interconnected social networks are prone to the spread of the virus both individually and at the macro-social level. The spread of the disease is controlled by allowing sensitive people to temporarily reduce their social contacts, as an attitude taken due to the presence of the virus in the local neighborhood. The social distancing promoted by governments and public health bodies comes as a method to control the pandemic, in the absence of antiviral drugs or a vaccine. Therefore, the control and management of this network during the pandemic is essential. The paper aims to present and analyze the changes that this measure produces in all sectors of society, globally. Also, it emphasizes the role of the government in implementing the measure and the need for cooperation of the population.

scholarly journals Modified SIR Compartmental Epidemic Model with Social Distancing and Hospital Saturation Applied to the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-287
Author(s):  
V. R. da Silva ◽  
◽  
O. H. Menin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Overall Mortality

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in the first months of 2020 overburdened health systems worldwide. The absence of vaccines led public authorities to respond to the pandemic by adopting nonpharmaceutical interventions, mainly social distancing policies. Yet concerns have been raised on the economic impact of such measures. Considering the impracticability of conducting controlled experiments to assess the effectiveness of such interventions, mathematical models have played an essential role in helping decision makers. Here we present a simple modified SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model that includes social distancing and two extra compartments (hospitalized and dead due to the disease). Our model also incorporates the potential increase in the mortality rate due to the health system saturation. Results from numerical experiments corroborate the striking role of social distancing policies in lowering and delaying the epidemic peak, thus reducing the demand for intensive health care and the overall mortality. We also probed into optimal social distancing policies that avoid the health system saturation and minimize the economic downturn.

scholarly journals Quantifying social contact patterns in Minnesota during Stay-at-Home social distancing order

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey M Dorelien ◽  
Narmada Venkateswaran ◽  
Jiuchen Deng ◽  
Kelly Searle ◽  
Eva Enns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Specific Contact ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
At Home

SARS-CoV-2 is primarily transmitted through person-to-person contacts. It is important to collect information on age-specific contact patterns because SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility, transmission, and morbidity vary by age. To reduce risk of infection, social distancing measures have been implemented. Social contact data, which identify who has contact with whom especially by age and place are needed to identify high-risk groups and serve to inform the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We estimated and used negative binomial regression to compare the number of daily contacts during the first wave (April-May 2020) of the Minnesota Social Contact Study, based on respondents age, gender, race/ethnicity, region, and other demographic characteristics. We used information on age and location of contacts to generate age-structured contact matrices. Finally, we compared the age-structured contact matrices during the stay-at-home order to pre-pandemic matrices. During the state-wide stay-home order, the mean daily number of contacts was 5.6. We found significant variation in contacts by age, gender, race, and region. Adults between 40 and 50 years had the highest number of contacts. Respondents in Black households had 2.1 more contacts than respondent in White households, while respondents in Asian or Pacific Islander households had approximately the same number of contacts as respondent in White households. Respondents in Hispanic households had approximately two fewer contacts compared to White households. Most contacts were with other individuals in the same age group. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the biggest declines occurred in contacts between children, and contacts between those over 60 with those below 60.

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