scholarly journals Voice on quantitative methods in risk management by an air operator

2020 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 103-116
Author(s):  
Piotr MAKOWSKI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Assessment Indicator ◽  
Excursion Probability ◽  
The Mathematical Model

This article is devoted to the diagnosis of problems arising from risk management obligations under the safety management system implemented in civil organisations of certified air operators (carriers). Focus was on the use of quantitative methods in safety risk analysis. The idea of an approach to determine the probability of accidents and serious incidents based on the intensity of symptoms with lower consequences and risk factors as a function of time or number of performed air operations was proposed, based on Markov discrete processes [6,10-12,16]. The essence of this approach is explained by the mathematical model of Runway Excursion probability during landing operations. The concept of improvement of operators' cooperation in the exchange of information about safety indicators by profiling the organisation was presented. The last proposal concerns the construction of a comprehensive risk assessment indicator using a safety risk matrix.

scholarly journals Analisis Safety Risk Management pada Kegiatan Praktikum Taruna Teknik Pesawat Udara di Politeknik Penerbangan Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Bhima Shakti Arrafat
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Practical Activity ◽  
Aircraft Engineering

Every practical activity carried out by student at Aircraft Engineering Departement, then these activities have risks that need mitigation measures. In safety risk management requires departement to conduct an assessment of the risks that can occur from an activity using hazard identification, risk assessment and mitigation. By identifying types of hazards, assessing risks, getting results in the form of risk matrix and risk level and identifying mitigation actions that can be taken and accepted. Furthermore, it produces hazard identification and risk assessment & mitigation (HIRAM) documents, and controls risks to acceptable and tolerable levels with mitigation measures. Safety risk management which is one of the standards in implementing safety management system in Aircraft Engineering Departement can be fulfilled.

Enhancing Safety Risk Management with Quantitative Measures

2017 ◽  
Vol 2603 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Claros ◽  
Carlos Sun ◽  
Praveen Edara
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management System ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Multinomial Distribution ◽  
Safety Management System ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Safety Risks ◽  
Safety Models ◽  
Runway Incursion

At the airfield in hub airports, many activities occur that involve a range of participants, including various-size aircraft, ground vehicles, and workers. The safety management system is FAA's approach for systematically managing aviation safety. A major component of the safety management system is safety risk management (SRM), which entails analysis, assessment, and control of safety risks, including risks on the airfield. Current SRM has few specific safety models to estimate the likelihood or frequency of risks. This paper presents an example for development and incorporation of safety models into SRM. Specifically, it discusses safety models for runway incursion that use the following variables: total and general aviation operations, length of runway by type, number of taxiway intersections, snowfall, precipitation, number of hot spots, and construction activity. Categorization and processing of data were significant because each variable used could take on multiple forms, and some types of data involved review of airfield diagrams. The data used were from 137 U.S. hub airports for 2009 through 2014. For modeling, the negative multinomial distribution was used because it proved suitable for representing overdispersed data such as runway incursion frequency. Performance of the models was assessed through the goodness-of-fit measures of log likelihood, overdispersion, and cumulative residual plots. Models were developed for five severity categories of runway incursions and three types of surface events. The safety modeling approach presented here can serve as a foundation for development of other safety models that can be integrated into SRM to enable quantitative analysis of safety risks.

A guaranteed deterministic approach to margining on exchange-traded derivatives market: Numerical experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Sergey Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Deterministic Approach ◽  
Computational Framework ◽  
Modern Approach ◽  
System A ◽  
Lipschitz Constants ◽  
Isaacs Equations ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The article discusses a modern approach to risk management of the central counterparty,primarily the issue of the sufficiency of its financial resources, including the provision of clearingmembers, the capital of the central counterparty and the mutual liability fund. The main subject is the margining system, responsible for an adequate level of collateral for clearing members, that plays critical role in risk management, being the vanguard in protecting against losses associated with default by clearing members and the most sensitive to market risk part of the central counterparty’s skin of the game. A system of margining a portfolio of options and futures in the derivatives market is described, with default management based on the methodology proposed by a number of inventors, registered in 2004. For this system, a mathematical model of margining (i.e. determining the required level of the collateral) is built, based on the ideology of a guaranteed deterministic approach to superhedging: Bellman–Isaacs equations are derived from the economic meaning of the problem. A form of these equations, convenient for calculations, is obtained. Lipschitz constants for the solutions of Bellman–Isaacs equations are estimated. A computational framework for efficient numerical solution of these equations is created. Numerical experiments are carried out on some model examples to demonstrate the efficiency of the system. These experiments also show practical implications of marginsubadditivity — a crucial property of the mathematical model.

scholarly journals The UAVs threat to airport security: risk analysis and mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Pyrgies
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Airport Security ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Different Sources

Purpose: This research studies the UAV incidents in the vicinity of worldwide airports in order to deliver a quantitative and qualitative analysis of this phaenomenon, to analyse the risks associated to this threat and propose mitigation measures that brings this risk to an ‘acceptable’ level.Methodology: A population of 139 ‘serious UAV incidents in the vicinity of worldwide airports’ has been constituted on the basis of the FAA and NASA databases and articles published on the Web by online media. This phaenomenon has then been analysed quantitatively using descriptive statistics techniques and qualitatively by analysing in-depth some representative incidents. A risk analysis has then been performed based on the FAA Safety Risk Management 5-steps process to identify the hazards i.e. the root causes of those UAV incidents, determine their outcome i.e. negative consequences that jeopardize airports objectives and assign them a severity level and likelihood i.e. frequency level. Analysed risks have then been assessed based on FAA ARP Risk Matrix. Mitigation measures (prevention, deterrence, denial, detection, neutralisation) have been identified following a ‘Defence-in-Depth’ approach.Findings: The findings of the study are that those UAV incidents are more numerous than anticipated and happen higher and further from the airports than expected: they happen not only in CTRs but also in TMAs. This has an impact on the mitigation measures that shall not only be deployed at airports side but also be on-boarded in manned aircrafts.Originality: To our knowledge, no study has combined different sources to constitute such a population focused on ‘serious’ UAVs incidents around airports worldwide, has applied the official FAA Safety Risk Management process to assess this risk and followed a structured ‘Defence-in-Depth’ approach typically used in Cybersecurity to mitigate this risk.Keywords: Airport security and safety, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) threat, Risk analysis and mitigation, Counter-UAVs technologies.

Schedule Risk Management of Railway Station Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 587-589 ◽  
pp. 1830-1835
Author(s):  
Jian Sun ◽  
Yue Ren Tan ◽  
Wei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Construction Management ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Delphi Technique ◽  
Risk Prevention ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Railway Station ◽  
Schedule Risk ◽  
Under Construction

Railway station is a comprehensive transportation hub. Its design and construction is far more complex than common public buildings, so as the construction management. This paper mainly explores the schedule risk management of railway station, including risk factors, risk indentation, risk evaluation and risk management. As many similar projects are under construction, Delphi technique method is most favorable for risk indentation. For risk evaluation, risk matrix method and CIM model are recommended to quantify the schedule risk. In the final part, the paper talks about the management of schedule risk. As schedule risk is abstract and its damage relatively slight, the risk prevention and mitigation are most suitable means.

scholarly journals Risk Management in Oil and Gas (EPC) Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1255-1264
Author(s):  
Prashant Pralhad Kadam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Defective Items ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

Abstract: The five most important risk factors identified in the design phase are 1] scope uncertainty, 2] failed management and planning, 3] changes in errors and omissions, 4] inadequate projectS team structure, 5] inadequate quality requirements. The top five risk factors determined by the procurement category are 1] Inadequate online resources and equipment, 2] Distribution of suppliers, 3] Uncertainty in design and style, codes, requirements and standards, 4] Defective items, and 5] Compromise. The 5 most important risk factors identified in the construction phase are 1] weak project capability, 2] excessive construction costs, 3] major construction delays, 4] strong project plan, and 5] poor safety management .This was initiated by the link between risk factors and the effects on price, quality and timing, as well as the potential for expensive, common, and high-quality outcomes. Keywords: Disaster risk management, risk management strategies, project risk management, oil and gas industry.

scholarly journals About flight safety management during operation of unmanned aircraft systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 42-56
Author(s):  
V. D. Sharov ◽  
B. P. Eliseev ◽  
P. M. Polyakov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
State Level ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft Systems ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Aircraft Systems ◽  
Near Future

The development of the unmanned aircraft market is hindered by the regulatory deficiencies of this aviation segment. This fully applies to the most important aspect of the activity – flight safety management. In accordance with the Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) ICAO and the Air Legislation of the Russian Federation, the availability of flight safety management systems (SMS) is mandatory for operators, developers and aircraft manufacturers, as well as for aircraft engines and propellers. However, this requirement does not fully apply to organizations involved in design, manufacture and operation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). At the same time, UAS use in various spheres of economic activities is associated with significant and diverse risks for manned aircraft, as well as vehicles, people and important infrastructure facilities on the ground. The article analyzes the current situation with the regulatory framework with relation to SMS development and implementation in the unmanned aviation segment at the international and state level and the prospects of its improvement. Based on experience, the most major methodological issues while SMS developing and implementing in various entities-aviation services providers are related to the selection, implementation and application of methods for safety risk management techniques, which have significant features for UAS operation. Considering anticipated adoption of SMS requirements in the near future, some innovative practices in this area of activity about aviation safety risk management for such entities have been reviewed.

A Study of Hazard Management Information System in Air Transportation

2012 ◽  
Vol 198-199 ◽  
pp. 1042-1046
Author(s):  
Le Ping Yuan ◽  
Rui Shan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Information System ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Air Transportation ◽  
Management Information ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Navigation Service ◽  
Inspection Service

The objective of the research was to develop an advanced hazard management information system in air transportation system, which was a supportive tool for the implementation of safety management system and safety risk management. Firstly, hazard management process was outlined taking account of the regulator, the air operator/air navigation service provider/airdrome and their responsibilities, the process clearly showed the necessity of such a system. The system fulfills five basic functions: hazard log management, inspection service, alerting service, statistics service and system management, it matches the needs of daily hazard management. Furthermore, architecture of the system and key algorithms was discussed in the paper. By using web technology, i.e. JSP and MySQL, the hazard management information system was developed based on B/S structure. Application of the system will definitely facilitate safety risk management and make safety management more proactive and efficient.

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