Wargaming Future National Security Threats Posed by Emerging Vector-Borne Diseases

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.20944/preprints202103.0458.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Deon Canyon

Keyword(s):

Data Driven ◽

Security Threats ◽

Causal Factors ◽

New Approach ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Trend Data ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Low Probability ◽

Lack Of Commitment

The emergence of existing and novel vector-borne disease pathogens is highly unpredictable because there are so many possible causal factors of sociological, ecological, biological, behavioral and political origin. Traditional data-driven forecasting tools have limited use in circumstances featuring low-probability crises for which trend data is unreliable and non-predictive. Commercial and security sectors have been quick to adopt various forms of wargames to address this gap and provide intelligent insights on possible outcomes in the short, mid and long term future. The lack of commitment and action against vector-borne diseases by governments and local authorities requires a new approach that presents risk in terms of potential actions, possible outcomes and resulting consequences.

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Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2001.0894 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 356 (1411) ◽

pp. 1057-1068 ◽

Cited By ~ 180

Author(s):

R. S. Kovats ◽

D. H. Campbell-Lendrum ◽

A. J. McMichel ◽

A. Woodward ◽

J. St H. Cox

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Direct Evidence ◽

Bird Species ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Early Effects ◽

The Impact

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra–annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector–borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick–borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long–term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.

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What is known about modified insects for disease prevention?: a systematic review

10.1101/494849 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Teresa Nazareth ◽

Isabel Craveiro ◽

Alanny Moutinho ◽

Cátia Gonçalves ◽

Luzia Gonçalves ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Disease Prevention ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Promising Tool ◽

Vector Population ◽

Field Evidence ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

Transgenic Mosquitoes

The modification and release of insects to suppress or replace natural insect vectors constitutes a promising tool for vector control and disease prevention, facing the unprecedented global emergence of vector-borne diseases. Little is known regarding these innovative modification strategies and available evidence is not standardized turning it difficult to reflect on their actual efficacy and eventual effects. This work conducted a systematic review, gathering and analyzing research articles from PubMed and Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde databases whose results directly report efficacy and effects of the use of modified insects for disease prevention until 2016. Within more than 1500 publications that were screened a total of 349 where analyzed. A total of 12/3.4% reported field-based evidence, and 41/11.7% covered modification stretagies’ efficacy after insects’ release, their epidemiology impact or its long-term efficacy. Examples of successful results were the replacement of natural field populations by wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in 5 weeks, and the elimination of a population in laboratory cages after transgenic mosquitoes release over 10–20 weeks. Variability in the effective results were described (90/25.7%) questioning its reproducibility in different settings. We also found 38/10.9% publications reporting reversal outcomes, such as an increase of vector population after release. Ecological effects such as horizontal transfer events to non-target species (54/15.5%), and wolbachia-induced worsening pathogenesis on mammal filarial diseases (10/2.9%) were also reported. Present work revealed promising outcomes of both suppressing and replacing approaches. However, it also revealed a need of field-based evidence mainly regarding epidemiologic and long-term impact of insect modification strategies. It pointed out some eventual irreversible and important effects that must not be ignored when considering open-field releases, and that may constitute constraints to generate the missing field evidence. Moreover, the level of variability of existing evidence suggests the need of local/specific evidence in each setting of an eventual release.

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Neither heat pulse, nor multigenerational exposure to a modest increase in water temperature, alters the susceptibility of Guadeloupean Biomphalaria glabrata to Schistosoma mansoni infection

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.9059 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. e9059

Author(s):

Euan R.O. Allan ◽

Stephanie Bollmann ◽

Ekaterina Peremyslova ◽

Michael Blouin

Keyword(s):

Schistosoma Mansoni ◽

Elevated Temperatures ◽

Global Climate ◽

Biomphalaria Glabrata ◽

Heat Pulse ◽

Infection Prevalence ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Temperature Regimes ◽

Vector Borne

There are increasing concerns regarding the role global climate change will have on many vector-borne diseases. Both mathematical models and laboratory experiments suggest that schistosomiasis risk may change as a result of the effects of increasing temperatures on the planorbid snails that host schistosomes. Heat pulse/heat shock of the BS90 strain of Biomphalaria glabrata was shown to increase the rate of infection by Schistosoma mansoni, but the result was not replicable in a follow up experiment by a different lab. We characterised the susceptibility and cercarial shedding of Guadeloupean B. glabrata after infection with S. mansoni under two temperature regimes: multigenerational exposure to small increases in temperature, and extreme heat pulse events. Neither long-term, multigenerational rearing at elevated temperatures, nor transient heat pulse modified the susceptibility of Guadeloupean B. glabrata to infection (prevalence) or shedding of schistosome cercaria (intensity of infection). These findings suggest that heat pulse-induced susceptibility in snail hosts may be dependent on the strain of the snail and/or schistosome, or on some as-yet unidentified environmental co-factor.

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Fluralaner (Bravecto®) induces long-term mortality of Lutzomyia longipalpis after a blood meal in treated dogs

Parasites & Vectors ◽

10.1186/s13071-020-04489-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Tamyres Bernadete Dantas Queiroga ◽

Henrique Rafael Pontes Ferreira ◽

Wilo Victor dos Santos ◽

Ana Beatriz Lourenço de Assis ◽

Vicente Toscano de Araújo Neto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Blood Meal ◽

Treatment Initiation ◽

Post Treatment ◽

Sand Fly ◽

Lutzomyia Longipalpis ◽

Control Center ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Insecticidal Effect ◽

Vector Borne

Abstract Background Leishmania infantum is the etiological agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the New World, where the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis and domestic dogs are considered the main vector and host reservoirs, respectively. Systemic insecticides have been studied as an alternative to control vector-borne diseases, including VL. Fluralaner, an isoxazoline class compound, is a systemic insecticide used in dogs, with proven efficiency against different species of phlebotomine sand flies. However, to date no studies have demonstrated the efficacy of fluralaner on Lu. longipalpis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the insecticidal effect of fluralaner (Bravecto®) on the sand fly Lu. longipalpis after blood meal in treated dogs. Methods Healthy mongrel dogs (n = 8) were recruited from the Zoonoses Control Center in the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, and randomized into two groups: fluralaner treated (n = 4) and non-treated control (n = 4). Colony-reared female specimens of Lu. longipalpis (n = 20) were allowed to feed on all dogs for 40 min before treatment (for fluralaner-treated dogs), at day 1 after treatment and then monthly until 1 year post-treatment. Results In the treatment group, there was 100% mortality of Lu. longipalpis for up to 5 months after treatment initiation, decreasing to 72.5% at 6 months post-treatment initiation. The efficacy of fluralaner ranged from 100% at day 1 (P = 0.0002) to 68% ( P = 0.0015) at 6 months, decreasing to 1.4% at 1 year post-treatment. Sand fly mortality carried out blood meal in non-treated control dogs remained constant at ≤ 15%. Conclusions Taken together, our results suggest that fluralaner may be used as a control strategy for VL in dogs in VL endemic areas.

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Endocrine disrupting mechanisms and effects of pesticides

Arhiv za farmaciju ◽

10.5937/arhfarm71-34291 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 71 (6) ◽

pp. 480-490

Author(s):

Hatice Anlar ◽

Merve Bacanli ◽

Nurşen Başaran

Keyword(s):

Pesticide Exposure ◽

Endocrine System ◽

Crop Loss ◽

Potential Toxicity ◽

Male And Female ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Frequent Use ◽

Endocrine Disrupting ◽

Vector Borne

Pesticides are important agents that are intentionally introduced into the environment to control various pests and disease carriers, often by killing them. Although pesticides have many important objectives, including protection against crop loss and vector-borne diseases, there are significant concerns over the potential toxicity of pesticides on various organisms, including humans. The frequent use of pesticides in agriculture has led to the long-term exposure of humans to different pesticide residues. Exposure to pesticides has been linked to disturbances in the endocrine system of animals and humans. There are increasing data on the relation between lipophilic pesticides with low biodegradability and changes in reproductive functions and parameters of male and female animals. But more epidemiological and detailed information is necessary on the probability and strength of pesticide exposure-outcome relations regarding endocrine-disrupting effects.

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Modelling Cross-Shore Shoreline Change on Multiple Timescales and Their Interactions

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse9060582 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 582

Author(s):

Rob Schepper ◽

Rafael Almar ◽

Erwin Bergsma ◽

Sierd de de Vries ◽

Ad Reniers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Shoreline Change ◽

Sandy Beaches ◽

Data Driven ◽

Short Term ◽

New Approach ◽

Multiple Timescales ◽

Direct Forcing ◽

Shoreline Prediction ◽

Study Sites

In this paper, a new approach to model wave-driven, cross-shore shoreline change incorporating multiple timescales is introduced. As a base, we use the equilibrium shoreline prediction model ShoreFor that accounts for a single timescale only. High-resolution shoreline data collected at three distinctly different study sites is used to train the new data-driven model. In addition to the direct forcing approach used in most models, here two additional terms are introduced: a time-upscaling and a time-downscaling term. The upscaling term accounts for the persistent effect of short-term events, such as storms, on the shoreline position. The downscaling term accounts for the effect of long-term shoreline modulations, caused by, for example, climate variability, on shorter event impacts. The multi-timescale model shows improvement compared to the original ShoreFor model (a normalized mean square error improvement during validation of 18 to 59%) at the three contrasted sandy beaches. Moreover, it gains insight in the various timescales (storms to inter-annual) and reveals their interactions that cause shoreline change. We find that extreme forcing events have a persistent shoreline impact and cause 57–73% of the shoreline variability at the three sites. Moreover, long-term shoreline trends affect short-term forcing event impacts and determine 20–27% of the shoreline variability.

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Construction Hybrid immunoglobulin All Four Dengue serotype Using Mesenchymal Stem

KnE Life Sciences ◽

10.18502/kls.v3i6.1178 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 520

Author(s):

Rofiqul A’la ◽

Rahaju Ernawati ◽

Nunuk Dyah Retno L ◽

Mufasirin Mufasirin ◽

Anwar Ma’ruf ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Adaptive Immune Response ◽

Gene Encoding ◽

Vector Borne Diseases ◽

Adaptive Immune ◽

Scfv Gene ◽

Part Time ◽

Vector Borne ◽

Encoding Gene ◽

Immune Booster

The dengue virus is a member of vector-borne diseases that causes zoonotic disease and spreads rapidly in the world. No single treatment or vaccine yet is available that is recommended and there is no correlation with protectiveness against this disease. The heavy chain (VH) and light chain (VL) variables are molecules of immunoglobulin G (IgG) is the smallest part of the antibody. Although the part-time domain variable is short, it can be used as a long-term and rapid immune booster in the immune system. In this study we tried to clone an encoding gene that was able to influence the adaptive immune response to dengue 1-4 by using MSC as a gene carrier. The target scFv-IgG gene has been successfully integrated into the plasmid. Plasmids that we have linearly transfected into the MSC. From the cDNA synthesis results continued with PCR synthesis with primer FGHV and RGHA obtained bands in accordance with the target of 404 bp. The scFv gene encoding IgG can be integrated with MSC Keywords: immunetherapy; dengue; hybrid; scFv-IgG; mesenchymal

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Reduction of major amputations in the diabetic ischaemic foot: A strategy to "take control" with conservative care as well as revascularisation

VASA ◽

10.1024/0301-1526.30.s58.6 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement 58) ◽

pp. 6-14 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Edmonds ◽

Foster

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Treatment Plan ◽

Staging System ◽

Vascular Control ◽

New Approach ◽

Conservative Care ◽

Arterial Bypass ◽

Therapeutic Footwear ◽

Frequent Problem

The diabetic ischaemic foot has become an increasingly frequent problem over the last decade. However, we report a new approach consisting of a basic classification, a simple staging system of the natural history and a treatment plan for each stage, within a multi-disciplinary framework. This approach of "taking control" consists of two parts: 1. long-term conservative care including debridement of ulcers (to obtain wound control), eradication of sepsis (micribiological control), and provision of therapeutic footwear (mechanical control), and 2. revascularisation by angioplasty and arterial bypass (vascular control). This approach has led to a 50% reduction in the rate of major amputations in patients attending with ischaemic ulceration and absent foot pulses from 1989 to 1999 (from 4.6% to 2.3% per year). Patients who underwent angioplasty increased from 6% to 13%. Arterial bypass similarly increased from 3% to 7% of cases. However, even with an increased rate of revascularisation, 80% of patients responded to conservative care alone. This,we conclude, is an essential part of the management of all patients with ischaemic feet.

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