scholarly journals Utilization of estimated rainfall as an early warning system before flash flood event

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Fara Diva Claudia ◽  
Cecylia Putri Mawarni ◽  
Kadek Krisna Yulianti ◽  
Paulus Agus Winarso
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Rainfall Estimation ◽  
Wrf Modeling ◽  
The Impact

<p class="Abstract">On October 10, 2018 there has been extreme weather in the form of heavy rain accompanied by lightning in Tanah Datar District, West Sumatra. This extreme weather caused flash floods and landslides that killed many people. Therefore, by using remote sensing data in the form of radar and satellite as well as WRF modeling (Weather Research and Forecasting) the authors conducted analysis of heavy rainfall events to determine the estimated rainfall and atmospheric dynamics during the occurrence of flash floods and landslides. WRF modeling is used to determine the condition of atmospheric lability. For the calculation of rainfall estimation, the method used is the Convective Stratiform Technique (CST) method that utilizes satellite data and the Z-R relation selection method that utilizes radar data. Then the calculation results from each method are verified using observation data. Relative bias shows the CST method and the selection of Z-R relations tend to be overestimate, but has a very high correlation value with observation data. Information on rainfall estimation and atmospheric dynamics is expected to be used to provide early warnings aimed at minimizing losses from the impact of disasters.</p>

scholarly journals Perbandingan Estimasi Radar Cuaca Dopler Baron Terhadap Data Observasi Kejadian Hujan Di Kota Kupang

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ni Putu Nonik Prianti ◽  
Roddialek Pollo ◽  
Judi K. Nasjoro ◽  
Sulton Kharisma
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
The Impact

Radar is able to provide information about extreme weather observations in the form of heavy rain, so it is important to find the level of accuracy of the radar in providing extreme weather information. So that with accurate data disaster mitigation can be done by creating an early warning system using radar data in order to minimize the impact that will occur. Comparative analysis of the estimated rainfall events on the radar with surface observation data shows a good level of accuracy, but the blankness of the data on the radar due to damage thus influences the decision making of the forecasters when providing extreme weather information quickly to the public. By knowing the radar accuracy level is quite good in estimating rain events, BMKG can provide weather information in the form of appropriate early warning so that people can anticipate extreme weather events

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Force Analysis of Flash Floods in Fujian Province

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junnan Xiong ◽  
Quan Pang ◽  
Chunkun Fan ◽  
Weiming Cheng ◽  
Chongchong Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Fujian Province ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Middle Mountains ◽  
Driving Force Analysis ◽  
Economic Development Model ◽  
The Impact

Flash floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters. The comprehensive identification of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of a flash flood is the basis for the scientific understanding of the formation mechanism and the distribution characteristics of flash floods. In this study, we explored the spatiotemporal patterns of flash floods in Fujian Province from 1951 to 2015. Then, we analyzed the driving forces of flash floods in geomorphic regions with three different grades based on three methods, namely, geographical detector, principal component analysis, and multiple linear regression. Finally, the sensitivity of flash floods to the gross domestic product, village point density, annual maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day), and annual total precipitation from days > 95th percentile (R95p) was analyzed. The analytical results indicated that (1) The counts of flash floods rose sharply from 1988, and the spatial distribution of flash floods mainly extended from the coastal low mountains, hills, and plain regions of Fujian (IIA2) to the low-middle mountains, hills, and valley regions in the Wuyi mountains (IIA4) from 1951 to 2015. (2) From IIA2 to IIA4, the impact of human activities on flash floods was gradually weakened, while the contribution of precipitation indicators gradually strengthened. (3) The sensitivity analysis results revealed that the hazard factors of flash floods in different periods and regions had significant differences in Fujian Province. Based on the above results, it is necessary to accurately forecast extreme precipitation and improve the economic development model of the IIA2 region.

Urban Area Response to Flash Flood–Triggering Rainfall, Featuring Human Behavioral Factors: The Case of 22 October 2015 in Attica, Greece

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 621-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina Papagiannaki ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Kostas Lagouvardos ◽  
Isabelle Ruin ◽  
Antonis Bezes
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Time Correlation ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Coping Responses ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Flood Impact ◽  
And Coping ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Over the past several decades, flash floods that occurred in Attica, Greece, caused serious property and infrastructure damages, disruptions in economic and social activities, and human fatalities. This paper investigated the link between rainfall and flash flood impact during the catastrophic event that affected Attica on 22 October 2015, while also addressing human risk perception and behavior as a response to flash floods. The methodology included the analysis of the space–time correlation of rainfall with the citizens’ calls to the emergency fire services for help, and the statistical analysis of people’s responses to an online behavioral survey. The results designated critical rainfall thresholds associated with flash flood impact in the four most affected subareas of the Attica region. The impact magnitude was found to be associated with the localized accumulated rainfall. Vulnerability factors, namely, population density, geographical, and environmental features, may have contributed to the differences in the impact magnitudes between the examined subareas. The analysis of the survey’s behavioral responses provided insights into peoples’ risk perception and coping responses relative to the space–time distribution of rainfall. The findings of this study were in agreement with the hypothesis that the more severe the rainfall, the higher peoples’ severity assessment and the intensity of emotional response. Deeper feelings of fear and worry were found to be related to more adjustments to the scheduled activities and travels. Additionally, being alert to the upcoming rainfall risk was found to be related to decreased worry and fear and to fewer changes in scheduled activities.

scholarly journals Ensemble Flash Flood Predictions Using a High-Resolution Nationwide Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model: Case Study of the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Masafumi Yamada ◽  
Yoshito Sugawara ◽  
Dai Yamazaki
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Heavy Rain Event ◽  
Peak Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract The heavy rain event of July 2018 and Typhoon Hagibis in October 2019 caused severe flash flood disasters in numerous parts of western and eastern Japan. Flash floods need to be predicted over a wide range with long forecasting lead time for effective evacuation. The predictability of flash floods caused by the two extreme events are investigated by using a high-resolution (~150 m) nationwide distributed rainfall-runoff model forced by ensemble precipitation forecasts with 39-h lead time. Results of the deterministic simulation at nowcasting mode with radar and gauge composite rainfall could reasonably simulate the storm runoff hydrographs at many dam reservoirs over western Japan for the case of heavy rainfall in 2018 (F18) with the default parameter setting. For the case of Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 (T19), a similar performance was obtained by incorporating unsaturated flow effect in the model applied to Kanto region. The performance of the ensemble forecast was evaluated based on the bias ratios and the relative operating characteristic curves, which suggested the higher predictability in peak runoff for T19. For the F18, the uncertainty arises due to the difficulty in accurately forecasting the storm positions by the frontal zone; as a result, the actual distribution of the peak runoff could not be well forecasted. Overall, this study showed that the predictability of flash floods was different between the two extreme events. The ensemble spreads contain quantitative information of predictive uncertainty, which can be utilized for the decision making of emergency responses against flash floods.

scholarly journals Impact of Flash Flood Events on the Coastal Waters Around Madeira Island: The “Land Mass Effect”

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Rosa ◽  
Cláudio Cardoso ◽  
Rui Vieira ◽  
Ricardo Faria ◽  
Ana R. Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mass Effect ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
River Plume ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Madeira Island ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Land Runoff

The Island Mass Effect has been primarily attributed to nutrient enhancement of waters surrounding oceanic islands due to physical processes, whereas the role of land runoff has seldom been considered. Land runoff can be particularly relevant in mountainous islands, highly susceptible to torrential rainfall that rapidly leads to flash floods. Madeira Island, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is historically known for its flash flood events, when steep streams transport high volumes of water and terrigenous material downstream. A 22-year analysis of satellite data revealed that a recent catastrophic flash flood (20 February 2010) was responsible for the most significant concentration of non-algal Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) and Chlorophyll-a at the coast. In this context, our study aims to understand the impact of the February 2010 flash flood events on coastal waters, by assessing the impact of spatial and temporal variability of wind, precipitation, and river discharges. Two specific flash floods events are investigated in detail (2 and 20 February 2010), which coincided with northeasterly and southwesterly winds, respectively. Given the lack of in situ data documenting these events, a coupled air-sea-land numerical framework was used, including hydrological modeling. The dynamics of the modeled river plumes induced by flash floods were strongly influenced by the wind regimes subsequently affecting coastal circulation, which may help to explain the differences between observed SPM and Chlorophyll-a distributions. Model simulations showed that during northeasterly winds, coastal confinement of the buoyant river plume persisted on the island’s north coast, preventing offshore transport of SPM. This mechanism may have contributed to favorable conditions for phytoplankton growth, as captured by satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a in the northeastern coastal waters. On the island’s south coast, strong ocean currents generated in the eastern island flank promoted strong vertical shear, contributing to vertical mixing. During southwesterly winds, coastal confinement of the plume with strong vertical density gradient was observed on the south side. The switch to eastward winds spread the south river plume offshore, forming a filament of high Chlorophyll-a extending 70 km offshore. Our framework demonstrates a novel methodology to investigate ocean productivity around remote islands with sparse or absent field observations.

scholarly journals Diagnosing Moisture Sources for Flash Floods in the United States. Part II: Terrestrial and Oceanic Sources of Moisture

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 1511-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica M. Erlingis ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Jeffrey B. Basara
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Backward trajectories were derived from North American Regional Reanalysis data for 19 253 flash flood reports published by the National Weather Service to determine the along-path contribution of the land surface to the moisture budget for flash flood events in the conterminous United States. The impact of land surface interactions was evaluated seasonally and for six regions: the West Coast, Arizona, the Front Range, Flash Flood Alley, the Missouri Valley, and the Appalachians. Parcels were released from locations that were impacted by flash floods and traced backward in time for 120 h. The boundary layer height was used to determine whether moisture increases occurred within the boundary layer or above it. Moisture increases occurring within the boundary layer were attributed to evapotranspiration from the land surface, and surface properties were recorded from an offline run of the Noah land surface model. In general, moisture increases attributed to the land surface were associated with anomalously high surface latent heat fluxes and anomalously low sensible heat fluxes (resulting in a positive anomaly of evaporative fraction) as well as positive anomalies in top-layer soil moisture. Over the ocean, uptakes were associated with positive anomalies in sea surface temperatures, the magnitude of which varies both regionally and seasonally. Major oceanic surface-based source regions of moisture for flash floods in the United States include the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California, while boundary layer moisture increases in the southern plains are attributable in part to interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere.

Using Climate Models to Estimate Urban Vulnerability to Flash Floods

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (9) ◽  
pp. 2637-2650 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kermanshah ◽  
S. Derrible ◽  
M. Berkelhammer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Infrastructure Networks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change will impact urban infrastructure networks by changing precipitation patterns in a region. This study presents a novel vulnerability assessment framework for infrastructure networks against extreme rainfall-induced flash floods, with a specific application to transportation. The framework combines climate models, network science, geographical information systems (GIS), and stochastic modeling to compile a vulnerability surface (VS). Daily precipitation simulations for 2006–2100 from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), are used to produce a stochastic simulation of extreme flash flood events in five U.S. cities—that is, Boston, Massachusetts; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania—under two different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). To assess the impact of these events, percentage drops in static (i.e., overall properties and robustness topological indicators) and dynamic (i.e., GIS accessibility and travel demand metrics) network properties are measured before and after simulated extreme events. The results of these metrics are inputs on a radar diagram to form a VS. Overall, the results show that changes in flash flood frequency due to climate change can have a significant impact on road networks, as was demonstrated recently in Houston, Texas. The magnitude of these impacts is chiefly associated with the geographic location of the cities and the size of the networks. The proposed framework can be reproduced in any city around the world, and researchers can use the results as guidelines for infrastructure design and planning purposes. Moreover, sensitivity analysis to varying greenhouse gas concentration trajectories can help local and national authorities to prioritize strategies for adaptation to climate change in more vulnerable regions.

scholarly journals Flash flood in Arau watershed, West Sumatera: a mitigation study

2018 ◽  
Vol 229 ◽  
pp. 03002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irfan Pramono ◽  
Endang Savitri
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Drainage Density ◽  
Antecedent Soil Moisture ◽  
Natural Dam ◽  
Maximum Daily Rainfall

Flash flood often occurs in West Sumatera. In spite of heavy rain, flash floods are also caused by the landslide in the riverside that blocks the river as a natural dam. The natural dam can be broken at any time, depending on storage capacity. Flash flood occurs when the dam is broken. The aim of the research is to mitigate flash floods based on parameters influencing flood and landslide. The research was conducted in Arau watershed, West Sumatera. Parameters that have a direct proportion of floods are maximum daily rainfall, watershed shape, river gradient, drainage density, slope, and land cover. Parameters influencing landslides are antecedent soil moisture, slope, geologic type especially fault line, soil depth, and land cover. GIS is used to analyze the factors influencing flood and landslide spatially. The results show that more than 50% of the Arau watershed are slightly high and high vulnerability due to its natural condition. Furthermore, the locations of fault, especially in the riverside, should be noticed because this location could become a natural dam causing flash flood. In order to reduce flash flood impact, the natural dam should be opened as soon as possible.

scholarly journals The Summer 2019-2020 Wildfires in East Coast Australia and Their Impacts on Air Quality and Health in New South Wales, Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiep Duc Nguyen ◽  
Merched Azzi ◽  
Stephen White ◽  
David Salter ◽  
Toan Trieu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
East Coast ◽  
New South ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
The Impact

The 2019-2020 summer wildfire event on the east coast of Australia was a series of major wildfires occurring from November 2019 to end of January 2020 across the states of Queensland, New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and South Australia. The wildfires were unprecedent in scope and the extensive extend of the wildfires has caused smoke pollutants transported not only to New Zealand but across the Pacific Ocean to South America. At the height of the wildfires, smoke plumes were injected into the stratosphere at height up to 25km and hence transported across the globe. Based on meteorological and air quality simulation using WRF-Chem model, air quality monitoring data collected during the bushfire period and remote sensing data from MODIS and CALIPSO satellites, the extend of the wildfires and the pollutant transport, and their impacts on air quality and health on exposed population in NSW can be analysed. The results showed that WRF-Chem model using Fire Emission Inventory from NCAR (FINN) predicts the dispersion and transport of pollutants and the predicted concentration of PM2.5 and other pollutants from wildfires reasonably well when compared with ground-based and satellite data. The impact on health endpoints such as mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases hospitalisation across the modelling domain is then estimated. The estimated health impact is comparable with previous study based only on observation data, but the results in this study provide much more detailed spatially and temporally with regards to the health impact from the 2019-2020 wildfire.

scholarly journals Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises, Organizational Resilience Capacity and Flash Floods: Insights from a Literature Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7437
Author(s):  
Antonis Skouloudis ◽  
Thomas Tsalis ◽  
Ioannis Nikolaou ◽  
Konstantinos Evangelinos ◽  
Walter Leal Filho
Keyword(s):  
Flash Floods ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Organizational Sustainability ◽  
Holistic Management ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

From a managerial standpoint, sustainability poses numerous challenges for the business community. One of the prominent concerns in the context of organizational sustainability is the impact of climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs), which create discontinuity and damages to business operations. In this respect, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to EWEs, such as flash floods, having disastrous consequences to SMEs that tend to be ill-prepared. Taking into consideration that these negatives effects are also transferred into the local communities in which SMEs are located, it is crucial to create appropriate mechanisms that will enable these enterprises to build relevant capacities and acquire necessary resources in order to deal with relevant disruptive events. With this in mind, this paper attempts to delineate the emerging literature in relation to strategic approaches in dealing with high impact/low probability EWEs. With this analysis, we aim to provide insights for enhancing the robustness of SMEs against such natural hazards through effective resilience and adaptation strategies. The paper reveals that resilience to EWEs is indeed a multifaceted issue posing numerous challenges to SMEs. Taking into account their intrinsic characteristics, there is a need for a holistic management approach that will assist SMEs to safeguard their assets against extreme weather.

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