scholarly journals Disaster Storytelling and Volcanic Eruptions Caused by Debris Avalanches on Mt. Bandai in Aizu and Mt. Unzendake and Mt. Mayuyama in Shimabara

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-145
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Sato ◽  
Yuichi Ono ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
The Past ◽  
Debris Avalanches

People tend to forget the past. For example, nine years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011, and memories of the disaster have begun to fade even in the disaster-stricken areas. People who have experienced disasters directly have tried to spread the memories of those events in various ways because they do not want their children and grandchildren to endure what they did. One of the most impressive ways of sharing these memories is for witnesses of disasters to communicate how they directly experienced them. There is a challenge in handing down these stories because people directly affected by the disasters will die within the next ten years. This paper takes up two examples of volcanoes in Japan, and examines how stories of these disasters were passed on to people who have not experienced them directly. We proceed by investigating common points in these stories and comparing them, and also by exploring the activity of passing how these disaster stories have been passed down after more than 100 years since its occurrence when there are no more survivors who have any direct memory of it.

Modulation of the relationship between summer temperatures in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic over the past millennium by external forcings

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Feng Shi ◽  
Anmin Duan ◽  
Qiuzhen Yin ◽  
John T Bruun ◽  
Cunde Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Warm Period ◽  
Temperature Correlation ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Centennial Variation ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Past Millennium

Abstract The Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic both have an important influence on global climate, but the correlation between climate variations in these two regions remains unclear. Here we reconstructed and compared the summer temperature anomalies over the past 1,120 yr (900–2019 CE) in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic. The temperature correlation during the past millennium in these two regions has a distinct centennial variation caused by volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the abrupt weak-to-strong transition in the temperature correlation during the sixteenth century could be analogous to this type of transition during the Modern Warm Period. The former was forced by volcanic eruptions, while the latter was controlled by changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that anthropogenic, as opposed to natural, forcing has acted to amplify the teleconnection between the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Arctic during the Modern Warm Period.

Rising smoke-charged vortices in the mid-latitude stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Legras ◽  
Hugo Lestrelin ◽  
Aurélien Podglajen ◽  
Mikail Salihoglu
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Mechanics ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
The Past ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
The World ◽  
Lidar Observations ◽  
Meso Scale

<p>The two most intense wildfires of the last decade that took place in Canada in 2017 and Australia in 2019-2020 were followed by large injections of smoke in the stratosphere due to pyroconvection. It was discovered that, after the Australian event, part of this smoke self-organized as anticyclonic confined vortices that rose against the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the mid-latitude stratosphere up to 35 km (Khaykin et al., 2020, doi: 10.1038/s43247-020-00022-5).  Based on CALIOP lidar observations and the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, we analyze the Canadian case and find, similarly, that the large plume which penetrated the stratosphere on 12 August 2017 and reached 14 km got trapped thereafter within a meso-scale anticyclonic structure which travelled across the Atlantic. It then broke into three offsprings that could be followed until mid-October 2017, each performing  round the world journeys and rising up to 23 km for one of them. We analyze the dynamical structure of the vortices produced by these two wildfires in the ERA 5 and demonstrate how they are maintained by the assimilation of data from instruments measuring the signature of the vortices in the temperature and ozone field. We propose that these vortices can be seen as bubbles of very low potential vorticity carried vertically by their internal radiative heating across the stratosphere against the stratification. We will also present elements of a theory and first numerical simulations explaining the dynamics of such structures  and discuss possible occurrences after other forest fires and volcanic eruptions in the past as well as  future likely impacts. This new phenomenon in geophysical fluid mechanics has, to our knowledge, no reported analog (see reference: https://acp.copernicus.org/preprints/acp-2020-1201/).</p>

Global and amplified land warming trends over the past 40+ years are entirely human-driven.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Haustein
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
The Past

<p class="p1">The role of external (radiative) forcing factors and internal unforced (ocean) low-frequency variations in the instrumental global temperature record are still hotly debated. More recent findings point towards a larger contribution from changes in external forcing, but the jury is still out. While the estimation of the human-induced total global warming fraction since pre-industrial times is fairly robust and mostly independent of multidecadal internal variability, this is not necessarily the case for key regional features such as Arctic amplification or enhanced warming over continental land areas. Accounting for the slow global temperature adjustment after strong volcanic eruptions, the spatially heterogeneous nature of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and known biases in the sea surface temperature record, almost all of the multidecadal fluctuations observed over at least the last 160+ years can be explained without a relevant role for internal variability. Using a two-box response model framework, I will demonstrate that not only multidecadal variability is very likely a forced response, but warming trends over the past 40+ years are entirely attributable to human factors. Repercussions for amplifed European (or D-A-CH for that matter) warming and associated implications for extreme weather events are discussed. Further consideration is given to the communications aspect of such critical results as well as the question of wider societal impacts.</p>

A quantitative study of five thousand years of volcanism on Sao Miguel, Azores

1978 ◽  
Vol 288 (1352) ◽  
pp. 271-319 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Basaltic Magma ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Lava Flows ◽  
Explosive Eruptions ◽  
Lateral Movement ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pumice Fall ◽  
Eruptive Fissures ◽  
Fall Deposits

The activity of the three stratovolcanoes on the island of Sao Miguel is documented by tephrochronology, and during the past 5000 years a total of some 57 volcanic eruptions have taken place, mostly of magnitudes 4-6 on Tsuya’s scale. Approximately half were trachytic, and half basaltic. Each stratovolcano has a caldera within which each has had one historic eruption. The trachytic eruptions were predominantly explosive, and most took place from vents situated within the calderas. Isopach and isograde maps of most of the resulting pumice fall deposits are given. The basaltic eruptions produced both lava flows and pyroclastics, and isopach and isograde maps are given for some of the main fall deposits. The Agua de Pau volcano has had particularly large explosive eruptions, several of them (including Fogo A, the largest in the past 5000 years) being of plinian type. The output of the three volcanoes over the 5000 years is equivalent to 4.6 km 3 of dense rock, at which rate the exposed parts of the volcanoes could have accumulated in 150000 years. At least half of the erupted material is trachytic, a proportion typical of the entire accessible parts of the volcanoes. The 50 known eruptive vents of the past 5000 years are distributed in a zone 55 km long by 8 km wide which may lie above a major fracture zone. Some eruptive fissures trend obliquely across this zone, suggesting right-lateral movement along the fracture. Basaltic eruptions were confined to a much smaller area than in the preceding millennia perhaps due to the formation, at the time of the great Fogo A eruption 5000 years ago, of a broad trachytic magma chamber underlying the Agua de Pau and Furnas volcanoes which basaltic magma has since been unable to penetrate.

scholarly journals Focusing on and Backgrounding Events Simultaneously: The Past–Present–Future Relationship of the Great East Japan Earthquake

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 92-110
Author(s):  
Anja Danner-Schröder
Keyword(s):  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
The Other ◽  
Temporal Orientation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Event Structures ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Over Time

This article examines how events from the past, present, and future form into event structures over time. This question is addressed by investigating the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 until the fifth anniversary in 2016. This allowed to analyze different events over time. The findings reveal that events can be used in two different ways. One process was meant to focus on events, whereas the other one backgrounded events. These different ways to use events revealed four different mechanisms of how event structures can be formed. Moreover, each mechanism has its own idiosyncratic temporal orientation toward either a nostalgic past, imagined future, “better” future or critical past. Second, the article contributes that the paradoxical ways of focusing on an event and backgrounding the very same event need to be embraced simultaneously to enable a greater sense of wholeness. Last, the article reveals multiple temporalities within and across temporal trajectories.

Soil history and debris avalanche deposits along the Illawarra scarpland

Soil Research ◽  
1963 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 223 ◽  
Author(s):  
PH Walker
Keyword(s):  
Debris Avalanche ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Phase Instability ◽  
Alternate Form ◽  
The Past ◽  
Weathered Zone ◽  
Debris Avalanches ◽  
History Of

Two major periods of avalanching have occurred along the Illawarra scarpland. The older, the Scarborough formation, is characterized by a very thick, acid, weathered zone, similar to the lower mottled horizons of laterite profiles. The younger, Keira formation, has relatively shallow red and yellow earth profiles developed in it. Although its profile of deep weathering has some features in common with laterite, the Scarborough formation is not part of the general laterite surface, but represents a separate period of prolonged stability and weathering. The debris-avalanches are thought to have been deposited during excessively wet climatic conditions in the past, and they represent an alternate form of instability compared with the dry phase instability proposed for the K-cycle history of milder hillslope terrain near Nowra.

Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 3134-3148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Gerald H. Haug
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
The Past ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Past Millennium ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing. The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.

scholarly journals Impact of known local and tropical volcanic eruptions of the past millennium on the WAIS Divide microparticle record

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (17) ◽  
pp. 4712-4716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bess G. Koffman ◽  
Karl J. Kreutz ◽  
Andrei V. Kurbatov ◽  
Nelia W. Dunbar
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Millennium

scholarly journals Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 3799-3812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Liu ◽  
Jinbao Li ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Jian Liu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Millennium

scholarly journals Disaster Forecasting Approach In Indonesia: A Fuzzy Time Series - Markov Chain Model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahmad Syah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Transport Accidents

The concept of Fuzzy Time Series to predict things that will happen based on the data in the past, while Markov Chain assist in estimating the changes that may occur in the future. With methods are used to predict the incidence of natural disasters in the future. From the research that has been done, it appears the change, an increase of each disaster, like a tornado reaches 3%, floods reaches 16%, landslides reaches 7%, transport accidents reached 25% and volcanic eruptions as high as 50%.

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