scholarly journals Net Present Value as an instrument to simplificate the decision making process in health technologies economic evaluation

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-70
Author(s):  
Tania Beume
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Health Technologies

Queensland Digital Health Clinical Charter: a clinical consensus statement on priorities for digital health in hospitals

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 661
Author(s):  
Clair Sullivan ◽  
Andrew Staib ◽  
Keith McNeil ◽  
David Rosengren ◽  
Ian Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Executive Leadership ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Health Technologies ◽  
Clinical Community ◽  
Expected Benefits ◽  
High Level

Digital transformation of Australian hospitals is occurring rapidly. Although the clinical community has had limited ability to influence high-level decision making and investments into digital health technologies, as these technologies increasingly transform the way patients are cared for, the clinical community must influence the digital health agenda and be an integral part of the decision-making process. This case study details the process and lessons learnt during the development of the state-wide consensus statement detailing the clinical requirements for digital health initiatives to form the Queensland Digital Health Clinical Charter. To the best of our knowledge, Queensland is the first Australian jurisdiction to create a Digital Clinical Charter to be specifically referenced in the investment in and governance of digital health in hospitals. By developing this clinical charter for digital health, and in articulating the needs of clinicians, a clinical framework will be added to both the decision-making process around the investments in digital health and the definition and realisation of the expected benefits from these sizable investments. What is known about the topic? Digital transformation of healthcare is occurring rapidly. The clinical community has had limited ability to influence high-level decision making and investments into these digital health technologies. Tension currently exists between the clinical community who must use the new digital technologies and the technical groups that govern the introduction of the new technologies. This tension can be manifest as clinicians refusing to adopt new systems, safety concerns and an inability to reach consensus on direction. There are few peer reviewed publications addressing this tension between the clinical community and technical providers. What does this paper add? This paper is the first attempt to create a list of clinical requirements for digital transformation that crosses professional streams and is endorsed by the state-wide executive leadership team to inform the acquisition and governance of digital health technologies. What are the implications for practitioners? Clinicians can feel excluded and marginalised during the decision-making process for new digital technologies, despite the fact that they are often using these technologies to deliver hands-on care to patients. This charter clearly articulates the requirements of clinicians for digital transformation and has been endorsed by the executive leadership team of Queensland Health. The charter adds a clinical framework to be referenced during the decision-making process around the investments in digital health, and the definition and realisation of the expected benefits from these sizable investments. As the digital landscape in public hospitals evolves, clinicians are becoming increasingly reliant upon digital technologies. It is critical that clinicians have a strong effect on technology acquisition and governance to maximise the quality and efficiency of the care they provide.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Decision-Making for the Optimal Value of Sustainable Enterprise Development under Global 100 Index Thinking

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyrone Lin ◽  
Shu-Yen Hsu ◽  
Chiao-Chen Chang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Social Costs ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Environmental Costs ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Study Results

This study seeks the best economic returns of a company’s sustainable business process, employs the Triple Bottom Line Model using the Global 100 Index as the decision variable, and follows the Geometric Brownian Motion, so as to determine the optimal timing for the input of environmental and social costs. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that when the average growth rate of the Global 100 Index is low, the optimal timing for the company’s input of environmental costs and social costs can be obtained. Analysis of the numerical example shows that, based on the financial value of the economic factor, companies should invest in environmental costs as soon as possible. This study replaces the conventional net present value model with the options evaluation model, uses the Global 100 Index as the threshold for decision-making evaluation to provide a more complete decision-making evaluation reference for enterprises, and makes up for the gap in recent research regarding investment time and decision variables. The study results introduce potential strategic value evaluations into the evaluation model of long-term uncertain sustainable operation value, which is more appropriate for the evaluation of the real sustainable operation value. It also provides implementation strategies for decision-makers to mitigate risks under uncertain environments and is the major difference and value of the Real Options Approach (ROA) to supplement Net Present Value (NPV) principles. The results of this study provide a reference for the sustainable development decision-making of corporate sustainability and feasibility and offer an important link in the value chain of food industry operations and management.

scholarly journals Decision-making tools: stochastic simulation model accounting for the impacts of biological variation on success of bovine embryo transfer programs1

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-462
Author(s):  
Dustin G Aherin ◽  
Jennifer M Bormann ◽  
Jessica L Heier Stamm ◽  
Michael D MacNeil ◽  
Robert L Weaber
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Embryo Transfer ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Commercial Application ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Bovine Embryo ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Embryo Production

Abstract The objective of the project was to create an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs as an aid in decision-making. Distributions defining the biological uncertainty for many reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in each iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variable values, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value, annuity equivalent net present value, and return on investment associated with the modeled embryo production scenario. Two options for embryo production, multiple ovulation embryo transfer (MOET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) from aspirated oocytes, are modeled. Within both MOET and IVP, the use of unsorted or sex-sorted semen is considered, as well as the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up in IVP procedures. Pretransfer embryo selection through embryo biopsy can also be accounted for when considering in vivo derived embryos. Ample opportunity exists for the commercial application of in-depth, alternative ET scenario assessment afforded through stochastic simulation methodology that the ET industry has not yet fully exploited.

OP97 Digital Home Services: Overcoming Critical Barriers In Early Decision Making

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (S1) ◽  
pp. 36-36
Author(s):  
Linn Nathalie Stome ◽  
Arne Norrud ◽  
Martin Fjordholm ◽  
Kari Kvaerner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Service Needs ◽  
Developmental Phase ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Digital Home ◽  
Health Innovations ◽  
Home Based

Introduction:There is a lack of adoption and diffusion of health innovations needed to drive the implementation of important breakthroughs in value-based health care. To stimulate organizational changes, decision-makers need to see potential benefit at an early stage. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential effects of a conceptualized intention to provide digital home-based care and compare it to the current provision of such care. The new intervention aims to strengthen the municipality's care services by offering a digital communication platform to recipients of home-based health services and their dependents. The platform is designed to be implemented nationally and is in line with home service needs identified in several white papers.Methods:An interdisciplinary team united to determine and quantify potential effects of the project. Effects of the digitalized service were distinguished in priced quantitative, unpriced quantitative and qualitative effects. A ten-year present value calculation with a calculation rate of four percent was used for the estimates. A risk analysis was also carried out.Results:The present value calculation resulted in estimated savings equal to EUR 25.8 million , with present value investments costs of EUR 5.5 million over ten years. This resulted in net present value per invested euro in the public sector equal to EUR 3.2. Overall assessment of uncertainty related to the intervention's socio-economic profitability was deemed average. Based on data quantified estimates from the conceptual phase, the project succeeded in the decision-making and funding needed to proceed into the next developmental phase of the project.Conclusions:The present approach to early assessment may provide much desired decision support in an early innovation phase when data are still missing. Our experience is that early stakeholder involvement and the early assessment and quantification of value gains are of utmost importance to overcome the critical barriers to organization health innovations.

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

scholarly journals A New Look at the Economic Evaluation of Wind Energy as an Alternative to Electric and Natural Gas-Powered Irrigation

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 739-751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry Lima ◽  
Gregory Colson ◽  
Berna Karali ◽  
Bridget Guerrero ◽  
Stephen Amosson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Stochastic Nature ◽  
Replacement Decisions

An extension of the Guerrero et al. (2010) net present value (NPV) analysis using real options analysis (ROA) is offered to improve machinery replacement decisions. Specifically, the feasibilities of replacing natural gas irrigation systems with either electric or hybrid (electric/wind) systems are evaluated. Results indicate NPV and ROA criteria can yield opposite decisions depending on the stochastic nature of the parameters, reversibility of the investment, and flexibility of investment timing. For policy, NPV results indicate that replacing natural gas with a hybrid is on the cusp of being optimal. However, ROA indicates this NPV implication may not hold.

scholarly journals Forest management decision-making using goal programming and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approaches (case study: Hyrcanian forests of Iran)

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 9) ◽  
pp. 368-379
Author(s):  
Seyedeh Soma Etemad ◽  
Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei ◽  
Leif Olsson ◽  
Rasoul Yousefpour
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Stock Level ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The aim of this study is to determine the optimum stock level in the forest. In this research, a goal programming method was used to estimate the optimal stock level of different tree species considering environmental, economic and social issues. We consider multiple objectives in the process of decision-making to maximize carbon sequestration, net present value and labour. We used regression analysis to make a forest growth model and allometric functions for the quantification of carbon budget. Expected mean price is estimated using wood price and variable harvesting costs to determine the net present value of forest harvesting. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of goals using questionnaires filled in by experts in order to generate the optimal stock level. According to the results of integrated goal programming approach and fuzzy analytic hierarchy processes, optimal volume for each species was calculated. The findings indicate that environmental, economic and social outcomes can be achieved in a multi-objective forestry program for the future forest management plans.

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