scholarly journals Decision-making tools: stochastic simulation model accounting for the impacts of biological variation on success of bovine embryo transfer programs1

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-462
Author(s):  
Dustin G Aherin ◽  
Jennifer M Bormann ◽  
Jessica L Heier Stamm ◽  
Michael D MacNeil ◽  
Robert L Weaber
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stochastic Simulation ◽  
Embryo Transfer ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Commercial Application ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Bovine Embryo ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Embryo Production

Abstract The objective of the project was to create an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs as an aid in decision-making. Distributions defining the biological uncertainty for many reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in each iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variable values, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value, annuity equivalent net present value, and return on investment associated with the modeled embryo production scenario. Two options for embryo production, multiple ovulation embryo transfer (MOET) and in vitro embryo production (IVP) from aspirated oocytes, are modeled. Within both MOET and IVP, the use of unsorted or sex-sorted semen is considered, as well as the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up in IVP procedures. Pretransfer embryo selection through embryo biopsy can also be accounted for when considering in vivo derived embryos. Ample opportunity exists for the commercial application of in-depth, alternative ET scenario assessment afforded through stochastic simulation methodology that the ET industry has not yet fully exploited.

Developing an Evidence-Based Clinical Decision-Support System to Enhance Prosthetic Prescription

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-125
Author(s):  
Pratima Saravanan ◽  
Jessica Menold
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Gait Analysis ◽  
Support System ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Care Providers

With the rapid increase in the global amputee population, there is a clear need to assist amputee care providers with their decision-making during the prosthetic prescription process. To achieve this, an evidence-based decision support system that encompasses existing literature, current decision-making strategies employed by amputee care providers and patient-specific factors is proposed. Based on an extensive literature review combined with natural language processing and expert survey, the factors influencing the current decision-making of amputee care providers in prosthetic prescription were identified. Following that, the decision-making strategies employed by expert and novice prosthetists were captured and analyzed. Finally, a fundamental understanding of the effect gait analysis has on the decision-making strategies of prosthetists was studied. Findings from this work lay the foundation for developing a real-time decision support system integrated with a portable gait analysis tool to enhance prescription processes. This is critical in the low-income countries where there is a scarcity of amputee care providers and resources for an appropriate prescription.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Decision-Making for the Optimal Value of Sustainable Enterprise Development under Global 100 Index Thinking

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyrone Lin ◽  
Shu-Yen Hsu ◽  
Chiao-Chen Chang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Social Costs ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Environmental Costs ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Study Results

This study seeks the best economic returns of a company’s sustainable business process, employs the Triple Bottom Line Model using the Global 100 Index as the decision variable, and follows the Geometric Brownian Motion, so as to determine the optimal timing for the input of environmental and social costs. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that when the average growth rate of the Global 100 Index is low, the optimal timing for the company’s input of environmental costs and social costs can be obtained. Analysis of the numerical example shows that, based on the financial value of the economic factor, companies should invest in environmental costs as soon as possible. This study replaces the conventional net present value model with the options evaluation model, uses the Global 100 Index as the threshold for decision-making evaluation to provide a more complete decision-making evaluation reference for enterprises, and makes up for the gap in recent research regarding investment time and decision variables. The study results introduce potential strategic value evaluations into the evaluation model of long-term uncertain sustainable operation value, which is more appropriate for the evaluation of the real sustainable operation value. It also provides implementation strategies for decision-makers to mitigate risks under uncertain environments and is the major difference and value of the Real Options Approach (ROA) to supplement Net Present Value (NPV) principles. The results of this study provide a reference for the sustainable development decision-making of corporate sustainability and feasibility and offer an important link in the value chain of food industry operations and management.

OP97 Digital Home Services: Overcoming Critical Barriers In Early Decision Making

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (S1) ◽  
pp. 36-36
Author(s):  
Linn Nathalie Stome ◽  
Arne Norrud ◽  
Martin Fjordholm ◽  
Kari Kvaerner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Service Needs ◽  
Developmental Phase ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Early Assessment ◽  
Digital Home ◽  
Health Innovations ◽  
Home Based

Introduction:There is a lack of adoption and diffusion of health innovations needed to drive the implementation of important breakthroughs in value-based health care. To stimulate organizational changes, decision-makers need to see potential benefit at an early stage. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential effects of a conceptualized intention to provide digital home-based care and compare it to the current provision of such care. The new intervention aims to strengthen the municipality's care services by offering a digital communication platform to recipients of home-based health services and their dependents. The platform is designed to be implemented nationally and is in line with home service needs identified in several white papers.Methods:An interdisciplinary team united to determine and quantify potential effects of the project. Effects of the digitalized service were distinguished in priced quantitative, unpriced quantitative and qualitative effects. A ten-year present value calculation with a calculation rate of four percent was used for the estimates. A risk analysis was also carried out.Results:The present value calculation resulted in estimated savings equal to EUR 25.8 million , with present value investments costs of EUR 5.5 million over ten years. This resulted in net present value per invested euro in the public sector equal to EUR 3.2. Overall assessment of uncertainty related to the intervention's socio-economic profitability was deemed average. Based on data quantified estimates from the conceptual phase, the project succeeded in the decision-making and funding needed to proceed into the next developmental phase of the project.Conclusions:The present approach to early assessment may provide much desired decision support in an early innovation phase when data are still missing. Our experience is that early stakeholder involvement and the early assessment and quantification of value gains are of utmost importance to overcome the critical barriers to organization health innovations.

Life Cycle Cost Analysis Case Study on Corrosion Remedial Measures for Concrete Structures

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin How Ho ◽  
Azlan Abd. Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Concrete Bridges ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Life Cycle Cost Analysis ◽  
Remedial Measures ◽  
Present Value

Artikel ini membincangkan kajian ringkas berkaitan analisis kos kitaran hayat terhadap langkah-langkah pembaikan pengaratan bagi jambatan dan struktur marin konkrit yang terdedah kepada karbonasi atau serangan natrium klorida daripada air laut atau sumber-sumber lain. Perisian kos kitaran hayat, Bridge LCC 2.0 digunakan untuk menjalankan analisi kitaran hayat untuk tiga kes kajian melibatkan kaedah nilai bersih kini. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan analisis kos kitaran hayat berkeupayaan untuk membantu jurutera dan agensi pengangkutan dalam menilai keputusan penyelenggaraan yang efektif berkaitan dengan masalah pengaratan. Ia boleh digunakan sebagai alat analisis ekonomi kejuruteraan yang membantu mantaksir kos-kos perbezaan dan membuat pilihan terhadap langkah pembaikan pengaratan yang berkesan. Analisis kos kitaran hayat bagi langkah pembaikan dipengaruhi oleh banyak pemboleh ubah seperti kos permulaan, kos penyelenggaraan, tahun kekerapan, dan jangka masa analisis. Amalan terbaik untuk analisis kos kitaran hayat bukan sahaja mengambil kira perbelanjaan oleh agensi, tetapi perlu mempertimbangkan kos-kos oleh pengguna dan analisis sensitiviti di sepanjang jangka hayat sesuatu langkah pembaikan. Kata kunci: Analisis kos kitaran hayat, jambatan konkrit, pengaratan, langkah, pembaikan, pemulihan struktur, keberkesanan kos, kaedah nilai bersih kini (NPV) This paper discusses a short study on life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) on corrosion remedial measures for concrete bridges and marine structures, which are subjected to carbonation or ingress of sodium chloride from sea water and other sources. Life cycle costing software, Bridge LCC 2.0, was used to perform life cycle cost analyses on three case studies, based on net present value method. The analysis of the results showed that LCCA is capable of assisting engineers or transportation agencies to evaluate optimum maintenance decisions in corrosion–related problems. It can be used as an engineering economic analysis tool that helps in qualifying the differential costs and choosing the most cost–effective corrosion remedial measures. Life cycle costs for the remedial measures are influenced by many costing variables such as initial costs, periodic maintenance costs, frequency years and analysis period. The best practice of LCCA should not only consider agency expenditures but also user costs and sensitivity analysis throughout the service life of a remedial measure. Key words: Life cycle analysis, concrete bridges, corrosion, remedial measures, structural rehabilitation, cost-effective, net present value method (NPV)

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

scholarly journals Forest management decision-making using goal programming and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approaches (case study: Hyrcanian forests of Iran)

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (No. 9) ◽  
pp. 368-379
Author(s):  
Seyedeh Soma Etemad ◽  
Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei ◽  
Leif Olsson ◽  
Rasoul Yousefpour
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Goal Programming ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Stock Level ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The aim of this study is to determine the optimum stock level in the forest. In this research, a goal programming method was used to estimate the optimal stock level of different tree species considering environmental, economic and social issues. We consider multiple objectives in the process of decision-making to maximize carbon sequestration, net present value and labour. We used regression analysis to make a forest growth model and allometric functions for the quantification of carbon budget. Expected mean price is estimated using wood price and variable harvesting costs to determine the net present value of forest harvesting. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of goals using questionnaires filled in by experts in order to generate the optimal stock level. According to the results of integrated goal programming approach and fuzzy analytic hierarchy processes, optimal volume for each species was calculated. The findings indicate that environmental, economic and social outcomes can be achieved in a multi-objective forestry program for the future forest management plans.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of environmental cost on the capital investment decision-making of the Electricity Supply Commission, South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Toyese Titus Oyewo
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Coal Power Plants ◽  
Coal Power

The availability of energy (electricity) is a key factor in economic growth and the sustainability of production processes. The need to quantitatively measure the environmental risk and hazard associated with energy sources for the environment is useful in evaluating capital investment for decision-making. Coal (fossil fuel) is the main source of energy in South Africa, based on its availability and cost-effectiveness. Specifically, quantitative research using mathematical marginal social cost modelling to evaluate the environmental cost of emissions emanating from the Electricity Supply Commission’s (ESKOM) coal power stations is employed. It was discovered that the price of electricity has trebled over the lifespan of coal power plants. Therefore, the need to construct coal power plants with optimum levels of production was highlighted. The net present value (NPV) technique was used to evaluate ESKOM's capital investment and the marginal social cost mathematical model was developed for measuring and quantifying the emission costs associated with the lifespan of the coal power plants. Results revealed that the optimum level production of 2,150,000 Gigawatts per annum within the range of the present capacity of ESKOM of 2,292,000 gigawatts annually is required and profitable to ESKOM. The net present value yielded a positive value of R1, 448,713,000,000-00 over a period of 30 years of coal power plants’ life-span. However, various technologies used to minimize emissions were also considered and investigated to confirm the feasibility and profitability of investment in coal- powered stations using environmental management accounting and marginal social cost approaches.

Introducing Investment Options

2021 ◽  
pp. 131-135
Author(s):  
Camilla Toulmin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Over Time

This chapter offers a brief survey of how the investment literature deals with risk and uncertainty, and examines the reasons for variation in returns between farmers from the principal assets – wells, oxen plough-teams, breeding cattle. Simple decision-making models derive criteria for choosing between investment options according to the net present value, internal rate of return, and payback period associated with a given pattern of returns over time. Portfolio models presents the rationale for investment in a range of assets, the returns from which are poorly correlated. Farmers differ in terms of their access to factors of production, the scale of their activities, the opportunity cost of capital, and vulnerability to risk. Four idealised household types – A, B, C, D – are described in order to compare the flow of returns from the three principal investments – wells, oxen plough-teams, and breeding cattle.

APPLYING REAL OPTIONS AND THE MAXIMUM NPV RULE TO MARKET ENTRY/EXIT STRATEGIES

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
TYRONE T. LIN ◽  
TUNG-LI SHIH
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Market Entry ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Complex Calculation

This study applies the real options approach to examine the maximum net present value of the market entry/exit thresholds given uncertain cash flows. The discount and growth factors are determined in the proposed entry/exit models, facilitating the complex calculation of the discount and growth rates to determine the present value of cash flow streams. Accordingly, this work successfully combines the maximum net present value method and the real options approach for decision-making by simply considering the discount and growth factors.

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