scholarly journals FORECASTING OF DAMAGES FROM NATURAL HAZARDS FOR THE “NORTHERN CAUCASUS RESORTS” TOURIST CLUSTER

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-356
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav BABURIN ◽  
◽  
Svetlana BADINA ◽  

The article proposes a methodological approach to potential damage from natural hazards forecasting in case of large-scale investment projects realization in ski tourism planning, as well as to assessing changes in the vulnerability of the territory in which these projects will be implemented. The method was verified on the data of the “Northern Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster. The study purpose is the creation and verification of a methodology for socio-economic damage predicting in limit values and vulnerability changing in the regions of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster objects localization for the long term. Research methods – statistical (a structural approach based on the identification of common structural patterns of several sets). The lack of statistical information on significant parameters for forecasting determine necessitates of using the various logically non-contradictory revaluations based on the identified structural similarities for the calculation of their values within the planning horizon. The study results and main conclusions – in case of the “North Caucasus Resorts” tourist cluster creation the number of people potentially located in avalanche and mudflow danger areas will significantly increase in all of its facilities localization municipalities, which indicate an increase in the individual risk of death level for this territory. The present population in the ski season in some of the most remote and underdeveloped areas can increase up to 30 times. The increment in the value of the fixed assets for the municipalities under consideration will be from two to 90 times, potential damages in limit values will reach tens of billions rubles.

Author(s):  
В.Б. Свалова ◽  
В.Б. Заалишвили ◽  
Г.П. Ганапати ◽  
А.В. Николаев

Горные и прибрежные районы являются регионами наиболее подверженным стихийным бедствиям. Некоторые горные районы, которые уязвимы для оползней, также подвергались воздействию землетрясений. Когда в таких районах происходит землетрясение, риск возникновения оползня значительно возрастает. Природные опасности наносят огромный урон в мире и ежегодно их жертвами становятся множество людей. Концепция естественного риска может быть успешно использована для анализа природных опасностей и смягчения риска. Горные и предгорные районы Северного Кавказа расположены в зоне альпийской тектономагматической активации Большого Кавказа и характеризуются интенсивными геодинамическими процессами, наличием активных вулканов, высокой сейсмичностью (9-10 баллов) пульсирующими ледниками и самым широким развитием геологических опасностей различных генетических типов. Проблема сейсмической опасности и оценки риска Северного Кавказа генетически связана с активностью Большого Кавказа, самые сильные сейсмические события которого играют определяющую роль для некоторых регионов Северного Кавказа. Mountainous and coastal areas are the most affected regions for natural hazards. Certain mountainous areas are vulnerable to landslides but have also been affected by earthquakes. When an earthquake occurs in such areas, the risks for a landslide to occur grow tremendously. Natural hazards cause huge damage in the world and kill many people each year. The concept of natural risk can be successfully used for natural hazards analysis and reduction. Mountain and foothill areas of Northern Caucasus are located in the zone of alpine tectonomagmatic activation of Greater Caucasus and they characterized by intense geodynamic processes, the presence of active volcanoes, pulsating glaciers high seismicity (9-10 points) and broadest development of geohazards with different genetic types. The problem of seismic hazard and risk assessment of the North Caucasus is genetically related to the activity of the Greater Caucasus, the strongest seismic events of which play a determining role for some regions of the North Caucasus.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 2227-2234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Y. Komarov ◽  
Yury G. Seliverstov ◽  
Tatyana G. Glazovskaya ◽  
Alla S. Turchaninova

Abstract. Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 69-76
Author(s):  
A. E. Dedova

This paper presents the results of two years of research (2018-2019) of the most important phonological phases of seasonal growth and development, biometric parameters, productivity and economic efficiency of new varieties of Chinese plum (P. salicina Lindl.) grown in the foothill zone of the North Caucasus in the Krymsk district of Krasnodar territory on a plot of the Krymsk experimental breeding station – branch of VIR. As a result of research, the varieties Angeleno, Black Star, Byron Gold, Black Amber, Larry Ann and Sun Gold were recommended for cultivation using intensive technologies.


Author(s):  
Х.М. Хетагуров

Кленовники Северного Кавказа – особый тип лесных формаций. Особенность проявляется не только в структуре фитоценозов, но и в способах самовозобновления. Объект исследования – чистые и смешанные кленовники в нескольких урочищах РСО-Алания. Объекты расположены в различных условиях горного рельефа и на разной высоте над уровнем моря, от 1100 до 1900 м. Целью исследования является установление особенностей семенного возобновления кленовников, произрастающих в верхнем поясе распространения лесов на Северном Кавказе. Для достижения поставленной цели устанавливали время цветения и созревания семян по вертикальным поясам распространения кленовников. Обилие цветения и средний балл плодоношения устанавливали по В.Г. Капперу. Биометрические характеристики семян определяли по урочищам в трех повторностях. Учет подроста проводили на круговых учетных площадках по 10 м2, в соответствии с методикой А.В. Грязькина. Установлено, что цветение клена Траутфеттера начинается 10–14 мая и заканчивается в третьей декаде мая. Семена начинают созревать к концу августа – к началу сентября. Сроки опадения семян растянуты. Часть семян попадает на почву до начала листопада, поэтому они оказываются погребенными под опадом. Такие семена быстро теряют всхожесть, выпревают. Другая часть опадает вместе с листьями. Третья категория семян (самые легкие) держатся на деревьях до декабря и даже до весны. Естественное возобновление клена семенами под пологом материнского древостоя сильно затруднено из-за мощного травяного покрова. В древостое с сомкнутым пологом доля цветущих и плодоносящих деревьев составляет 2–3%, а средний балл плодоношения составляет 1,3. Освещенность на поверхности почвы не превышает 100 люкс, т. е. составляет 0,2–0,3% от освещенности на открытом месте; на высоте 1,3 м (над травостоем) освещенность несколько выше – от 1,2 до 1,6 тыс. люкс. Под пологом древостоя преобладает подрост вегетативного происхождения. У верхней границы кленового леса подрост семенного происхождения встречается в окнах, прогалинах и на открытых местах в количестве 430–630 экз./га. По высоте преобладает крупный подрост 50–60%, доля мелкого – 10–20%. The maple stands of the North Caucasus – a special type of forest formations. The peculiarity is manifested not only in the structure of phytocoenoses, but also in the ways of self-renewing. Object of research – pure and mixed maple stands in some areas of North Ossetia-Alania. The properties are located in various mountainous terrain and at different heights above sea level from 1100 to 1900 m. The aim of the study is to establish the characteristics of the seed the resumption of the maple stands growing in the upper belt of forests spread in the Northern Caucasus. To achieve this goal setting time of flowering and ripening of seeds on vertical zones distribution dominated. The abundance of flowering and the average score of fruiting was established by V.G. Capper. Biometric characteristics of the seeds was determined by the tracts in three replicates. Accounting for the undergrowth was carried out on a circular experimental plots at 10 m2, in accordance with the method of A.V. Grashkin. It is established that the flowering maple Trautvetter begins may 10–14 and ends in the third week of may. Seeds begin to ripen by late August – early September. The timing of subsidence of the stretched seed. Some of the seeds falls to the ground before the leaves, so they are trapped under the litter. These seeds quickly lose their germination, vypivaet. The other part falls along with the leaves. The third category of seeds (the light) stay on the trees until December and even till spring. Natural regeneration of maple seeds under the canopy of parent stand is very difficult due to the strong grass cover. In forest stands with dense canopy, proportion of flowering and fruit-bearing trees is 2–3%, and the average score of fruiting is 1.3. The illumination on the surface of the soil does not exceed 100 Lux, i. e. 0.2–0.3% of the light in the open, at a height of 1.3 m (on grass) the lighting is slightly higher, from 1.2 to 1.6 thousand Suite. Under the canopy of the forest the undergrowth is dominated by vegetative origin. At the upper boundary of the maple forest, saplings of seed origin occurs in Windows, clearings and open places in the number 430–630 ind./ha. In height dominated by large undergrowth of 50–60%, the share of small – 10–20%.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 410-420
Author(s):  
Vladimir N. KAVKAZKY ◽  
◽  
Yana V. MEL’NIK ◽  
Alexey P. LEIKIN ◽  
Andrey V. BENIN ◽  
...  

Objective: Chirkeyskaya HPP is by far the most powerful hydroelectric power plant in the North Caucasus with the highest arched dam in Russia and the second highest dam in the country after the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP. This explains why it is called the pearl of the Caucasus. Methods: For the operation and maintenance of this unique structure, a large-scale complex of underground structures for various purposes was built, the technical condition of which must be constantly monitored. To carry out work on the survey of underground structures, the management of the design and survey institute of JSC “Lengidroproekt” decided to attract specialists from the Department of Tunnels and Subways and the Test Center “Strength” of Emperor Alexander I Petersburg State Transport University. The work was successfully carried out at the end of 2015. Results: The safety of underground structures was objectively assessed. Recommendations for the repair and further comprehensive reconstruction of the Chirkeyskaya HPP have been developed. Practical importance: Carry out work on the survey of underground structures of Chirkeyskaya HPP is allowes elaborate of complex measures on safety from Chirkeyskaya HPP.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 36-45
Author(s):  
Nadezhda O. Bleich ◽  

The article analyzes the educational policy of Russia regarding the Muslims of the North Caucasus, substantiates the formation of the educational potential of the Muslim mountaineers in the historical aspect associated with the evolution of the educational paradigm of the state in the field of their education, the result of which was the adaptation of the regional structure of education to the all-Russian system. It is concluded that the imperial government, adapting to the situation of capitalism and carrying out modernization in the region, began to pay more attention to the issues of enlightening "infidels". But due to the inconsistent policy of officials, the coverage of Muslims by training was insufficient and required further reform of the national educational system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-450
Author(s):  
Irina Malneva ◽  
Nina Kononova ◽  
Muhtar Hadzhiev

The article presents an assessment of technogenic impact on the development of hazardous geological processes in the mountainous regions of the Northern Caucasus in the current century. Technogenic impact is determined by the stability of rock formations that make up the Krasnodar Territory, Kabardino-Balkaria, and North Ossetia relative to the impacts of other forces. It is also noted that the activity of hazardous geological processes is largely determined by the interaction of climatic conditions, which determine their speed, and technogenesis. Examples of problematic territories of the North Caucasus are given. To assess climatic changes and major catastrophes, a typology of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere was developed under the leadership of B.L. Dzerdzeevsky. Typification materials from the period between 1899 and 2018 are posted in the public domain, at www.atmospheric-circulation.ru. The largest catastrophes, in which landslides and mudflows became more active, and the interaction of natural and man-made factors in these disasters are considered.Hazardous geological processes can disrupt the sustainable development of individual regions with their negative impact on the environment. The assessment of their danger is therefore of special current relevance. The article considers the possibility of predicting catastrophes associated with these processes. Long-term forecasts of landslides, mudflows and other processes continue to be important. The methodology of such forecasting was previously developed in sufficient detail. The greatest importance is assigned to operational forecasts that will make it possible to warn of possible danger hours or even days ahead.


2018 ◽  
Vol 931 ◽  
pp. 1037-1041
Author(s):  
Arthur Kh. Kagermazov

Statistical models of the hail forecast are proposed for the two regions of the North Caucasus, developed from the output of the global atmosphere model GFS NCEP. Statistical schemes are obtained as a result of discriminant analysis conducted using statistical software package SPSS. Independent variables in these schemes are the most informative predictors of strong convective cloud development, calculated on the basis of the global GFS model data related to local atmospheric instability and large-scale synoptic processes. Based on the results of the operational audit, the estimates of the success of the hail forecasts according to existing criteria are given, the high values of which assume a reduction in damage from hailstorms, when using them.


Author(s):  
В.М. Газеев ◽  
В.Ю. Герасимов ◽  
А.Г. Гурбанов ◽  
О.А. Гурбанова

На основании изучения геологических отчетов и публикаций охарактеризованы поделочные камни Северного Кавказа осадочного и метаморфогенного происхождения. Приведено краткое геологическое описание наиболее типичных месторождений мрамора и декоративного известняка. Рассмотрены возраст образования и цветовая палитра камней этого типа. Определены территории и геологические разрезы, благоприятные для их поисков Based Based on the study of geological reports and publications, the ornamental stones of the North Caucasus of sedimentary and metamorphogenic origin are characterized. A brief geological description of the most typical deposits of marble and decorative limestone is given. The age of formation and the color palette of stones of this type are considered. The territories and geological sections favorable for their search are determined


Author(s):  
С.В. Попов ◽  
О.А. Гурбанова ◽  
А.Г. Гурбанов ◽  
В.М. Газеев

Аннотация: на основании изучения геологических отчетов, научных публикаций и маршрутных ис- следований выявлены минералы и поделочные камни, встречающиеся на Северном Кавказе в породах ультраосновного и основного составов. Установлено, что их происхождение связано с метасомати- ческими процессами, протекавшими на контактах ультраосновных пород с габброидамии гранитами, а также в доюрских корах выветривания и зонах разломов. Приведено краткое описание наиболее ти- пичных проявлений коллекционных минералов и поделочных камней. Examining geological reports, scientifi c publications and routing studies minerals and ornamental stones that occur in ultrabasic and basic rocks of the North Caucasus have been identifi ed. It is found that their origin is related to metasomatic processes that occurred in the contacts of ultrabasic rocks, gabbroids and granites and also in the Pre-Jurassic weathering crust and in fault zones. A brief description of the most typical occurrence of collectible minerals and ornament stones has been provided. .


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