scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan Carlos Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: The number of death children at the international scale are still high, but with proper spatially-targeted health public policies this number could be reduced. In Mexico, children mortality is a particular health concern due to its alarming rate all throughout North America. The aims of this study are i) to model the change of children mortality risk at the municipality level, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time and (iii) to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities across time, using local trends of each municipality in Greater Mexico City. Methods: The study uses Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to control for space-time patterns of data. This allow to model the geographical variation of the municipalities within the time span studied. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north, west, and some in the east; some of such municipalities show an increasing children mortality risk over time. The outcomes highlight some municipalities which show a medium risk currently but are likely to become high risk along the study period. Finally, the odds of children mortality risk illustrate a decreasing tendency over the 7-year framework. Conclusions: Identification of high-risk municipalities may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking out to reduce the incidence of children mortality, since it would provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan Carlos Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background : At the international scale the number of child deaths is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address the spatial-temporal identification of child mortality in Mexico. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods : In order to control for space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology allows to model the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities within the studied time span. Results : The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City, although there coexist some in the east; some of them presenting an increasing child mortality risk trend. The outcomes highlight some municipalities currently presenting a medium risk, but that, given their trend, are likely to become high risk after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions : The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

scholarly journals Modelling local patterns of child mortality risk: a Bayesian Spatio-temporal analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue-Mendoza ◽  
Juan C. Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background Globally, child mortality rate has remained high over the years, but the figure can be reduced through proper implementation of spatially-targeted public health policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is particularly a health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policymakers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that supports the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan C. Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background: Globally, child mortality rate is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods: In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions: The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that support the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

scholarly journals Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Support of Natural Hazard Risk Appraisal in Oman

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suad Al-Manji ◽  
Gordon Mitchell ◽  
Amna Al Ruheili
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Extreme Winds

Tropical cyclones [TCs] are a common natural hazard that have significantly impacted Oman. Over the period 1881–2019, 41 TC systems made landfall in Oman, each associated with extreme winds, storm surges and significant flash floods, often resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. TCs affect Omani coastal areas from Muscat in the north to Salalah in the south. However, developing a better understanding of the high-risk regions is needed, and is of particular interest in disaster risk reduction institutions in Oman. This study aims to find and map TC tracks and their spatio-temporal distribution to landfall in Oman to identify the high-risk areas. The analysis uses Kernel Density Estimation [KDE] and Linear Direction Mean [LDM] methods to better identify the spatio-temporal distribution of TC tracks and their landfall in Oman. The study reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns. This knowledge will help to improve disaster planning for the high-risk areas.

scholarly journals SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE of ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION ON TERRITORY of NORTH-WEST of UKRAINE

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Vasilivna Budnik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Change ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Present Stage ◽  
North West ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

The direction of the trend of precipitation over time is an important characteristic for both theoretical and practical use. The presented study is devoted to the analysis of changes in the territory of the trend of precipitation over the year over time. At the present stage of climate change in the north-west of Ukraine, there is a general tendency to increase rainfall over the year. This trend is not the same across the territory and depends on the height and latitude of the area. The amount of precipitation varies both in space and in time, however, the distribution of the characteristics of the rains themselves (intensity, duration and others) continue to remain similar throughout the territory. The revealed features of changes in the amount of precipitation in space and time can be useful in studying the unevenness of wetting, forecasting floods, changes in erosion activity, etc.

Spatial analysis of malaria in Kotabaru, South Kalimantan, Indonesia: an evaluation to guide elimination strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juhairiyah Juhairiyah ◽  
Dicky Andiarsa ◽  
Liestiana Indriyati ◽  
Muhammad Rasyid Ridha ◽  
Rachmalina Soerachman Prasodjo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
North West ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
The North ◽  
Significant Public Health Concern ◽  
Significant Public Health

Abstract Background Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Indonesia. Knowledge about spatial patterns of the residual malaria hotspots is critical to help design elimination strategies in Kotabaru district, South Kalimantan, Indonesia. Methods Laboratory-confirmed malaria cases from 2012 to 2016 were analysed to examine the trend in malaria cases. Decomposition analysis was performed to assess seasonality. Annual spatial clustering of the incidence and hotspots were identified by Moran's I and the local indicator for spatial association, respectively. Results The annual parasite incidence of malaria was significantly reduced by 87% from 2012 to 2016. Plasmodium vivax infections were significantly much more prevalent over time, followed by Plasmodium falciparum infections (p<0.001). The monthly seasonality of P. vivax and P. falciparum was distinct. High incidence was spatially clustered identified in the north, west and parts of south Kotabaru. Two persistent and four re-emerging high-risk clusters were identified during the period. Despite the significant reduction in the incidence of malaria, the residual high-risk villages remained clustered in the northern part of Kotabaru. Conclusions A spatially explicit decision support system is needed to support surveillance and control programs in the identified high-risk areas to succeed in the elimination goal of 2030.

scholarly journals FRI0649-HPR HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE PRESCRIBING AND OPHTHALMOLOGY SCREENING WITHIN RHEUMATOLOGY DEPARTMENTS IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE UNITED KINGDOM: A PROSPECTIVE REGIONAL AUDIT

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 928.2-929
Author(s):  
S. Juman ◽  
T. David ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
R. Hamad ◽  
S. Horton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Service Level ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Treatment Dosage ◽  
Sd Oct

Background:Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is widely used in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and connective tissue disease. The prevalence of retinopathy in patients taking long-term HCQ is approximately 7.5%, increasing to 20-50% after 20 years of therapy. Hydroxychloroquine prescribed at ≤5 mg/kg poses a toxicity risk of <1% up to five years and <2% up to ten years, but increases sharply to almost 20% after 20 years. Risk factors for retinopathy include doses >5mg/kg/day, concomitant tamoxifen or chloroquine use and renal impairment. The UK Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) 2018 guidelines for HCQ screening recommend optimal treatment dosage and timing for both baseline and follow-up ophthalmology review for patients on HCQ, with the aim of preventing iatrogenic visual loss. This is similar to recommendations made by the American Academy of Ophthalmology (2016).Objectives:To determine adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ screening within the Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK.Methods:Data for patients established on HCQ and those initiated on HCQ therapy were collected over a 7 week period from 9 Rheumatology departments.Results:473 patients were included of which 56 (12%) were new starters and 417 (88%) were already established on HCQ. 79% of the patients were female, with median ages of 60.5 and 57 years for new and established patients respectively. The median (IQR) weight for new starters was 71 (27.9) kg and for established patients, 74 (24.7) kg.20% of new starters exceeded 5mg/kg daily HCQ dose. 16% were identified as high risk (9% had previously taken chloroquine, 5% had an eGFR <60ml/min/m2and 2% had retinal co-pathology). Of the high-risk group, 44% were taking <5mg/kg. In total, 36% of new starters were referred for a formal baseline Ophthalmology review.In the established patients, 74% were taking ≤5mg/kg/day HCQ dose and 16% were categorized as high risk (10% had an eGFR less than 60ml/min/m2, 3% had previous chloroquine or tamoxifen use and 2% had retinal co-pathology). In the high-risk group, 75% were not referred for spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). 41% of patients established on HCQ for <5 years, and 33% of patients on HCQ for >5 years were not referred for SD-OCT. Reasons for not referring included; awaiting 5 year review, previous screening already performed and optician review advised.Since the introduction of the RCOphth guidelines, 29% patients already established on HCQ had an alteration in the dosage of HCQ in accordance with the guidelines. In the high-risk group, 16% were not on the recommended HCQ dose.Conclusion:This audit demonstrates inconsistencies in adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ prescribing and ophthalmology screening within Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK for both new starters and established patients. Plans to improve this include wider dissemination of the guidelines to Rheumatology departments and strict service level agreements with ophthalmology teams to help optimize HCQ prescribing and screening for retinopathy.Acknowledgments:Drs. S Jones, E MacPhie, A Madan, L Coates & Prof L Teh. Co-1st author, T David.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal epidemiology of the tuberculosis incidence rate in Iran 2008 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Behzad Kiani ◽  
Amene Raouf Rahmati ◽  
Robert Bergquist ◽  
Soheil Hashtarkhani ◽  
Neda Firouraghi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Spatial Scan Statistic ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background Effective reduction of tuberculosis (TB) requires information on the distribution of TB incidence rate across time and location. This study aims to identify the spatio-temporal pattern of TB incidence rate in Iran between 2008 and 2018. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted on aggregated TB data (50,500 patients) at the provincial level provided by the Ministry of Health in Iran between 2008 and 2018. The Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* were performed to identify the spatial variations of the disease. Furthermore, spatial scan statistic was employed for purely temporal and spatio-temporal analyses. In all instances, the null hypothesis of no clusters was rejected at p ≤ 0.05. Results The overall incidence rate of TB decreased from 13.46 per 100,000 (95% CI: 13.19–13.73) in 2008 to 10.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 10.65–11.11) in 2018. The highest incidence rate of TB was observed in southeast and northeast of Iran for the whole study period. Additionally, spatial cluster analysis discovered Khuzestan Province, in the West of the country, having significantly higher rates than neighbouring provinces in terms of both total TB and smear-positive pulmonary TB (SPPTB). Purely temporal analysis showed that high-rate and low-rate clusters were predominantly distributed in the time periods 2010–2014 and 2017–2018. Spatio-temporal results showed that the statistically significant clusters were mainly distributed from centre to the east during the study period. Some high-trend TB and SPPTB statistically significant clusters were found. Conclusion The results provided an overview of the latest TB spatio-temporal status In Iran and identified decreasing trends of TB in the 2008–2018 period. Despite the decreasing incidence rate, there is still need for screening, and targeting of preventive interventions, especially in high-risk areas. Knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of TB can be useful for policy development as the information regarding the high-risk areas would contribute to the selection of areas needed to be targeted for the expansion of health facilities.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of feline immunodeficiency virus and bovine tuberculosis co-infection in African lions

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1745) ◽  
pp. 4206-4214 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Maas ◽  
D. F. Keet ◽  
V. P. M. G. Rutten ◽  
J. A. P. Heesterbeek ◽  
M. Nielen
Keyword(s):  
Feline Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Blood Chemistry ◽  
The North ◽  
Conservation Problem ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
African Lions

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis , is a disease that was introduced relatively recently into the Kruger National Park (KNP) lion population. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV ple ) is thought to have been endemic in lions for a much longer time. In humans, co-infection between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus increases disease burden. If BTB were to reach high levels of prevalence in lions, and if similar worsening effects would exist between FIV ple and BTB as for their human equivalents, this could pose a lion conservation problem. We collected data on lions in KNP from 1993 to 2008 for spatio-temporal analysis of both FIV ple and BTB, and to assess whether a similar relationship between the two diseases exists in lions. We found that BTB prevalence in the south was higher than in the north (72 versus 19% over the total study period) and increased over time in the northern part of the KNP (0–41%). No significant spatio-temporal differences were seen for FIV ple in the study period, in agreement with the presumed endemic state of the infection. Both infections affected haematology and blood chemistry values, FIV ple in a more pronounced way than BTB. The effect of co-infection on these values, however, was always less than additive. Though a large proportion (31%) of the lions was co-infected with FIV ple and M. bovis , there was no evidence for a synergistic relation as in their human counterparts. Whether this results from different immunopathogeneses remains to be determined.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the climate impact on rice yield in north-west India

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 381-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. K. Kingra ◽  
Raj Setia ◽  
Satinder Kaur ◽  
Simranjeet Singh ◽  
Som Pal Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rice Yield ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
North West ◽  
Spatio Temporal
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