scholarly journals Developing a Scoring Model to Predict the Risk of Injurious Falls in Elderly Patients: A Retrospective Case-control Study in Multi-center Acute Hospitals

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Zhao ◽  
Shuguang Li ◽  
Yun Xu ◽  
Xiaoxia Su ◽  
Hong Jiang

Abstract Background Injurious falls seriously threaten the safety of elderly patients. The identification of risk factors to predict the probability of injurious falls is an important issue still needed to be solved urgently. We aimed to identify predictors and develop a nomogram as an appropriate assessment tool for distinguishing high-risk populations of injurious falls from older adults in acute settings.Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted in three acute care hospitals in Shanghai, China. We included elderly patients with injurious falls from 2014 to 2018, and the control patients without falls randomly identified from the electronic medical records. A new nomogram was established based on risk factors and its discrimination and calibration were verified to confirm the accuracy of the prediction. And the cut-off value of risk stratification was determined to help medical staff identify the high-risk groups.Results 115 elderly patients with injurious falls and 230 controls were identified in our study. The history of fractures, orthostatic hypotension, function status, sedative-hypnotics and the level of serum albumin were independent risk factors for injurious falls in elderly patients. And the scoring nomogram showed an acceptable predicting performance of injurious falls (C-index: 0.865, 95%CI: 0.789-0.941; corrected C-index: 0.868, 95%CI: 0.852-0.884). The threshold was 153 points to distinguish the high-risk groups from the aging patients, with acceptable sensitivity (72.2%) and specificity (86.1%).Conclusions The established nomogram will allow for identifying the high-risk populations among elderly patients, providing a new assessment tool to forecast the individual risk of injurious falls.

2000 ◽  
Vol 124 (3) ◽  
pp. 409-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. YAZDANPANAH ◽  
L. BEAUGERIE ◽  
P. Y. BOËLLE ◽  
L. LETRILLIART ◽  
J. C. DESENCLOS ◽  
...  

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for acute diarrhoea (AD) during the summer in France. A matched case-control study was conducted at a national level among patients of 500 general practitioners (GPs). From July to September 1996, 468 case-control pairs were included. Cases were more likely than controls (i) to live away from their main residence (OR 3·0; 95% CI 1·6–5·7), (ii) to have returned from a country at high risk of AD (OR 4·6; CI 0·9–23·1), and (iii) to have been in contact with a case of AD (OR 2·0; CI 1·3–3·1). A significantly decreased risk of AD was found for consumption of well-cooked chicken (OR 0·5; CI 0·3–0·8) and raw or undercooked home-made egg-containing products (OR 0·6; CI 0·4–0·8). These findings suggest that travel to high-risk areas, or travel within France, and being in contact with a case of AD, are risk factors for the occurrence of AD in summer in France.


Oncotarget ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (40) ◽  
pp. 66940-66950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Dąbrowski ◽  
Elektra Szymańska-Garbacz ◽  
Zofia Miszczyszyn ◽  
Tadeusz Dereziński ◽  
Leszek Czupryniak

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Siti Lestari ◽  
Dyah Dwi Astuti ◽  
Fachriza Malika Ramadhani

Asfiksia perinatal merujuk pada kekurangan oksigen selama persalinan, sehingga berpotensi menyebabkan kematian dan kecacatan. WHO memperkirakan  4 juta anak terlahir dengan asfiksia setiap tahun, dimana 1 juta di antaranya meninggal dan 1 juta anak bertahan hidup dengan gejala sisa neurologis yang parah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor risiko fetal dan tali pusat pada asfiksia neonatal.Penelitian dilakukan di lakukan di RS Dr Moewardi Surakarta dengan pendekatan  quantitative retrospective case control study. Data diambil dari rekam medis antara  tahun 2013-2018. Penelitan ini melibatkan  264 neonatal yang terdiri dari 88 kelompok kasus dan 176  kelompok control. Kelompok kasus adalah bayi dengan diagnosa  asfiksia yang  dilakukan analisis terhadap faktor risiko fetal, sedangkan bayi yang tidak mengalami asfiksia dijadikan  kelompok kontrol. Hasil analisis statistik uji Chi-Square dan Fisher Exact ditemukan bahwa  kelahiran prematur (OR 2,07 CI 95% P 0,02), persalinan dengan tindakan (OR 3,61 CI 95% P 0,00), berat bayi (OR 2,85 CI 95% P 0,00), posisi janin (OR 2,37 CI 95% P 0,05), tali pusat ( QR 3,071 CI 95%  P 0,01)  berisiko terhadap insiden asfiksia perinatal. Air ketuban yang bercampur meconium (OR 1,51 CI 95% P 0,16) tidak memiliki risiko  dengan Asfiksia perinatal. Kesimpulan: Risiko terhadap insiden asfiksia perinatal  meliputi kelahiran prematur, persalinan dengan tindakan, berat bayi, posisi janin,  dan tali pusat.Perinatal asphyxia refers to a lack of oxygen during labor, which has the potential to cause death and disability. WHO estimates  4 million children born with asphyxia each year, in  which 1 million dies and 1 million survive with severe neurological sequelae. This study aims to analyze fetal and umbilical risk factors in neonatal asphyxia.This research is a quantitative retrospective case-control study, which was conducted at The Dr. Moewardi  hospital,  Surakarta. Data was taken from  medical records from 2013-2018. The case group was patients diagnosed  asphyxia, while those who did not experience asphyxia were treated as a control group.  A total of 264  samples, consisting of 88 case group respondents and 176 control group respondents. Statistical analysis Chi- Square and Fisher Exact found that preterm birth (OR 2.07 CI 95% P 0.02), labor with instrument or complication (OR 3.61 CI 95% P 0.00), infant weight (OR 2.85 CI 95% P 0, 00), fetal position (OR 2.37 CI 95% P 0.05), umbilical cord (QR 3.071 CI 95% P 0.01) are at risk for the incidence of perinatal Asphyxia. The amniotic fluid mixed with meconium (OR 1.51 CI 95% P 0.16) has no risk with perinatal asphyxia.The risk factors of incidences of perinatal asphyxia were  preterm birth, labor with instrument or complication, baby weight, fetal position and umbilical cord. 


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