scholarly journals Analyzing and prediction of rainfall trends over Baghdad city

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asraa Khtan ◽  
Iqbal Khalaf Al-ATABI
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Result Show ◽  
Exponential Trend

Abstract Rainfall is a key part of the hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affects the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. The present study aims to analyze the trend and forecast annual rainfall in Baghdad. rainfall data for the period of 1979-2019 was analyzed in this study, Statistical trend analysis techniques namely linear and Exponential trend were used to examine and analyze the problem. The result shows that rainfall will decrease in both methods but the liner method gives a higher value. from plotting time series of annual rainfall see that very variation so 5- moving average made to reduce the variance of rain but still variations so second 5- moving average made give less variance for rain then teak liner trend the result show also trend will decrease but reach 125 mm less than liner trend of actual series.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MODEL MANAJEMEN PERMINTAAN SCM NETWORK DAN PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PADA PENJUALAN BUSANA MUSLIM MENGGUNAKAN METODE LINEAR REGRESSION

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Vela Maghfiroh ◽  
◽  
Yusuf Amrozi ◽  
Qushoyyi Bondan Prakoso ◽  
Mochamad Adam Aliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Bullwhip Effect ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Analysis Techniques

Supply chain management is very important for a company because it will affect supply performance in the company. Doing business in this era has many challenges that must be faced, especially in the Muslim clothing business. The way to stabilize the demand diagram of the Muslim clothing business, retailers are required to manage the supply chain so that they can meet the total demand. The object of this research is Rabbani Cirebon which was obtained from a literature study published in a journal entitled "Trend of Muslim Lifestyle Changes" from Banjarmasin State Polytechnic. The journal has sales data based on product types from monthly in 2016. From this data will be processed and analyzed using data analysis techniques. This data analysis technique uses time series forecasting data analysis techniques. From this time series method, this research uses moving average and linear regression. After modeling the data, the forecast error is measured using MAD, MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. The overall MSE results were 103731.8 and RMSE 322.0743. The benefit of demand forecasting is to reduce the Bullwhip Effect, plan future resources, for example, such as stock management, place control, product distribution, and demand for raw materials so as to make the right decisions. The results showed that the linear regression method has better forecasting than the moving average because linear regression has a smaller error rate than the moving average. But even so, the error rate of this study is still very large, so it is necessary to do more research to minimize the error rate.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012006
Author(s):  
F Aditya ◽  
E Gusmayanti ◽  
J Sudrajat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has been a prominent issue in the last decade. Climate change on a global scale does not necessarily have the same effect in different regions. Rainfall is a crucial weather element related to climate change. Rainfall trends analysis is an appropriate step in assessing the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. This study examines rainfall variations and changes at West Kalimantan, focusing on Mempawah and Kubu Raya from 2000-2019. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope estimator test, which can determine rainfall variability and long-term monotonic trends, were utilized to analyze 12 rainfall stations. The findings revealed that the annual rainfall pattern prevailed in all locations. Mempawah region tends to experience a downward trend, while Kubu Raya had an upward trend. However, a significant trend (at 95% confidence level) was identified in Sungai Kunyit with a slope value of -33.20 mm/year. This trend indicates that Sungai Kunyit will become drier in the future. The results of monthly rainfall analysis showed that significant upward and downward trends were detected in eight locations. Rainfall trends indicate that climate change has occurred in this region.

scholarly journals Comparison of Statistical Methods to Graphical Methods in Rainfall Trend Analysis: Case Studies from Tropical Catchments

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Upaka Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Graphical Methods ◽  
Rainfall Trend ◽  
Comparison Analysis ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Time Series Analyses

Time series analyses for climatic factors are important in climate predictions. Rainfall is being one of the most important climatic factors in today’s concern for future predictions; thus, many researchers analyze the data series for identifying potential rainfall trends. The literature shows several methods in identifying rainfall trends. However, statistical trend analysis using Mann–Kendall equation and graphical trend analysis are the two widely used and simplest tests in trend analysis. Nevertheless, there are few studies in comparing various methods in the trend analysis to suggest the simplest methods in analyzing rainfall trends. Therefore, this paper presents a comparison analysis of statistical and graphical trend analysis techniques for two tropical catchments in Sri Lanka. Results reveal that, in general, both trend analysis techniques produce comparable results in identifying rainfall trends for different time steps including annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfalls.

scholarly journals Long term effect of climate change on rainfall in northwest Iraq

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadhir Al-Ansari ◽  
Mawada Abdellatif ◽  
Salahalddin Ali ◽  
Sven Knutsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Continuous Decrease ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Semi Arid Region

AbstractMiddle East, like North Africa, is considered as arid to semi-arid region. Water shortages in this region, represents an extremely important factor in stability of the region and an integral element in its economic development and prosperity. Iraq was an exception due to presence of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. After the 1970s the situation began to deteriorate due to continuous decrease in discharges of these rivers, are expected to dry by 2040 with the current climate change. In the present paper, long rainfall trends up to the year 2099 were studied in Sinjar area, northwest of Iraq, to give an idea about its future prospects. Two emission scenarios, used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (A2 and B2), were employed to study the long term rainfall trends in northwestern Iraq. All seasons consistently project a drop in daily rainfall for all future periods with the summer season is expected to have more reduction compared to other seasons. Generally the average rainfall trend shows a continuous decrease. The overall average annual rainfall is slightly above 210 mm. In view of these results, prudent water management strategies have to be adopted to overcome or mitigate consequences of future severe water crisis.

scholarly journals Multi-scale CO2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Gu ◽  
Andrew Viggo Metcalfe ◽  
Gary Glonek
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Arma Models ◽  
Deterministic Models ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Exponential Trend ◽  
Sampling Intervals

Abstract Five time series of estimated atmospheric CO 2 with sampling intervals ranging from 0.5 million years to the relatively high frequency of one week are analysed. The yearly series shows a clear increasing trend since the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution around 1760. The weekly series shows a clear increasing trend and also seasonal variation. In both cases, the trend is fitted by a conceptual model that consists of a baseline value with an exponential trend superimposed. For the weekly series, the seasonal variation is modelled as an exponential of a sum of sine and cosine terms. The deviations from these deterministic models are treated as detrended and deseasonalised time series.Then,threesub-categoriesof autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are fitted to the five time series: ARMA models which are stationary; FARIMA models which are stationary but have long memory and are fractal processes, and ARIMA models which are variations on a random walk and so non-stationary in the variance.The FARIMA and ARIMA models provide better fits to the data than the corresponding ARMA models. All the fitted models are close to the boundary of stability, and are consistent with claims that climate change due to an increase in atmospheric CO 2 may not quickly be reversed even if CO 2 emissions are stopped.

scholarly journals Tendências em índices extremos de precipitação em Cabaceiras (PB) para períodos distintos

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 271
Author(s):  
Rafaela Lisboa Costa ◽  
Heliofábio Barros Gomes ◽  
Fabrício Daniel Dos Santos Silva ◽  
Rodrigo Lins Da Rocha Júnior ◽  
Giuliene Carla Dos Santos Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Change Detection ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Total Period ◽  
Significant Positive Trend ◽  
Total Length ◽  
Expert Team ◽  
Climate Change Detection

Este trabalho teve como objetivo aplicar e estudar 11 índices de extremos de precipitação formulados pelo ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), para a cidade de Cabaceiras-PB, utilizando dados diários de precipitação contínuos de 90 anos. Os índices foram calculados para o comprimento total da série, 1928 a 2017, assim como para três segmentos de 30 anos (1928-1957, 1958-1987 e 1988-2017). Os resultados evidenciaram que para muitos índices, tendências opostas e estatisticamente significativas podem ser observadas a depender do subperíodo estudado, assim como haver diferença entre estas tendências e as obtidas ao analisar-se o período total dos dados. Exemplos disso aconteceram para os índices R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, CWD e PRCPTOT.  Trends in extreme precipitation indexes in Cabaceiras (PB) for different periods A B S T R A C TThis work aimed to apply and analyze 11 precipitation extremes indexes formulated by ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, www.clivar.org/organization/etccdi), for the city of Cabaceiras, located in the Borborema mesoregion and microregion of Paraíba Oriental Cariri. A municipality in the semiarid region, it has the title of municipality where it rains less in Brazil, with an annual average of just over 300mm. Daily 90-year continuous precipitation data were used for the extreme indices, with the time series analyzed for four distinct periods, the total length of the series, 1928 to 2017, as well as three 30-year segments (1928-1957, 1958- 1987 and 1988-2017). The results showed that for many indices, opposite and significant trends can be observed depending on the sub period studied, as well as differences between these trends and those obtained by analyzing the total data period. The R1, R10 and R20mm indices show significant negative trends in the 1928-1957 sub period, but positive in the following two sub periods, reflecting a significant positive trend in the total period from 1928 to 2017. Other interesting examples are CDD indices for consecutive dry days, and PRCPTOT, for total annual rainfall with rainfall greater than 1mm. The CDD showed significant positive trend only in the 1928-1957 sub period, but non-significant negative trends in the subsequent sub periods, reflecting non-significant negative trends in the total length of the series. The PRCPTOT index shows behavior opposite to the CDD index, with a significant negative trend in the 1928-1957 sub period, positive in 1958-1987 and negative again in 1988-2017, but for the total length of the series the trend is positive and significant. These results show that the analysis of extreme trends is noticeably sensitive to the sample of the analyzed period, and may not reflect the reality of the time series the longer the total length of the time series, and need to be used with caution.Keywords: climate variability, dry and wet periods, semiarid.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of rainfall using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope, moving average and least square techniques for Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-25
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

The long-term behaviour of rainfall is necessary to study over space with different time series viz., annual, monthly and weekly as it is one of the most significant climatic variables. Rainfall trend is an important tool which assesses the impact of climate change and provides direction to cope up with its adverse effects on the agriculture. Several studies have been performed to establish the pattern of rainfall over various time periods for different areas that can be used for better agricultural planning, water supply management, etc. Consequently, the present report, entitled “Trend analysis of rainfall in Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra,” was carried out. 13 tahsils of the district of Ahmednagar were selected to carry out trend analysis. The daily rainfall data of 33 years (1980- 2012) of all stations has been processed out study the rainfall variability. The Mann Kendall (MK) Test, Sen’s slope method, moving average method and least square method were used for analysis. The statistical analysis of whole reference time series data highlighted that July and August month contributes highest amount of rainfall at all tahsils. Regarding trend in annual rainfall, these four methods showed increasing trend at most of the tahsils whereas a decreasing trend only at Shrigonda tahsil. For monthly trend analysis, Kopargaon, Newasa, Shevgaon and Shrirampur tahsils showed an increasing trend during July. During August and September month, most of the tahsils i.e. Kopargaon, Nagar, Parner and Sangamner showed increasing trends, whereas in June, only Shrigonda tahsil showed decreasing trend.

scholarly journals Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change, Long-term Variability and Trends in Rainfall in Apac District, Northern Uganda

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Atube ◽  
Geoffrey M. Malinga ◽  
Martine Nyeko ◽  
Daniel M. Okello ◽  
Basil Mugonola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Cropping Seasons

Abstract Background: Climate change poses a serious threat to agricultural livelihoods and food security of smallholder farmers in Sub Saharan Africa. Understanding long-term rainfall trends of variability and extremes at local scales and perceptions regarding long-term changes in climate variables is important in planning appropriate adaptation measures to climate change. This paper examines the perception of farmers in Apac district regarding long-term changes in climate variables and analyzes the trend of occurrence in seasonal and annual rainfall in Apac district, northern Uganda. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to collect data on perception of farmers regarding long-term changes in climate from 260 randomly selected small-holder farmers’ households across two sub-counties in Apac district by the administration of semi-structured questionnaires in February 2018. Monthly rainfall data sets from the Uganda Meteorological Authority (UMA) for the period 1980 to 2019 for the Apac district were also used to analyze trends of occurrences in seasonal and annual rainfall in the study area. The nonparametric Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK) and Sequential SMK tests were employed at a 5% significance level to detect trends and abrupt change points in mean seasonal rainfall. Results: The majority of the respondents (87%) perceived a decrease in precipitation over the past 39 years. The plot of forward regression u(ti) values and backward regression u’(ti) values showed interactions indicating rainfall trends: rainfall lower and upper limits and abrupt change points in the different cropping seasons. Analysis of historical series of mean monthly and annual rainfall showed an abrupt change in rainfall in March, April, May (MAM) season in 1982. Although the September, October and November (SON) season did not show an abrupt significant change, there was a significant (p<0.05) increase in rainfall above the upper limit from 1994 to date. Conclusion: The mean seasonal rainfall for MAM and SON cropping seasons in the Apac district were highly variable from different time points within the past 39 years (1980-2019), while JJA did not realize a significant change in rainfall within the same study period. Thus, the two cropping seasons (MAM and SON) in the district experienced remarkable variations in rainfall. This, therefore, provides a basis for Government to strengthen the provision of an effective climate tailored agricultural advisory service to aid farmers’ adaptation planning at the local level and to assist smallholder farmers and land-use managers in developing effective adaptation management strategies to the effects of climate change.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Variables on Yield of Major Crop in Samastipur District of Bihar: A time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meera Kumari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climatic Variable ◽  
Climate Variable

Climate change influences crop yield vis-a-vis crop production to a greater extent in Bihar. Climate change and its impacts are well recognizing today and it will affect both physical and biological system. Therefore, this study has been planned to assess the effect of climate variables on yield of major crops, adaptation measures undertaken in Samastipur district of Bihar. Secondary data on yield of maize and wheat crops were collected for the period from 1999-2019 to describe the effects of climate variable namely rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature on yield of maize and wheat. Analysis of time series data on climate variables indicated that annual rainfall was positively related to yields while maximum and minimum temperature had a negative but significant impact on maize and wheat yields. It actually revealed that other factors, such as; type of soil, soil fertility and method of farming may also be responsible for crop yield. Trend in cost as well as income of farmers indicated that income and cost of cultivation has no significant relationship with climate variable. On the basis of above observation it may be concluded that level of income of farmers changed due to change in the other factors rather than change in climatic variable over the period under study as cost of cultivation increases with increased in the price of input over the period but not due to change in climatic variable.

scholarly journals A spatial approach to rainfall in Sertão do Pajeú – Pernambuco

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. e241101119614
Author(s):  
Gabriela Isabel Limoeiro Alves Nascimento ◽  
Guilherme Rocha Moreira ◽  
Victor Casimiro Piscoya ◽  
Raimundo Mainar de Medeiros ◽  
Renisson Neponuceno de Araújo Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Temporal Heterogeneity ◽  
Weighted Distance ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Approach ◽  
Floods And Droughts

Changes in precipitation have implications for the hydrological cycle and water resources. Climate change is expected to alter average temperature and precipitation values, increasing the variability of these events, which could cause more intense and frequent floods and droughts. The objective of this study was to characterize the rainfall in the microregion of Pajeú, in Pernambuco, as well as to provide subsidies for public policies aimed at water scarcity. For this, rainfall data were used at stations belonging to the micro-region and its surroundings, for the period from January 1980 to December 2019. In addition, to mitigate the influences caused by temporal heterogeneity, stations with large discontinuity of information. The Inverse Weighted Distance was used to perform the interpolation of data and preparation of maps with isolines of rainfall. The results show the places with the highest annual rainfall during the study period were Serra Talhada and Triunfo, and the lowest rainfall occurred in the vicinity of Ingazeira and Tabira.

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