A Re-Analysis of EU’s COVID-19 Vaccine Procurement Strategy in View of the An-Ticipated Cost-effectiveness of Vaccination
Abstract Aim The EU has received criticism for being slow to secure COVID-19 vaccine contracts in 2020 before the approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine. The purpose of this study is to retrospectively analyze the EU’s COVID-19 vaccine procurement strategy. To this end, the study retrospectively determines the minimum vaccine efficacy that made vaccination cost-effective from a societal perspective in Germany before the clinical trial announcements in late 2020. The result is compared against the expected vaccine efficacy before the announcements. Methods Two strategies were analyzed: vaccination followed by complete lifting of mitigation measures and a long-term mitigation strategy. A decision model was constructed using, e.g., information on age-specific fatality rates, intensive care unit costs and outcomes, and herd protection threshold. The base-case time horizon was 5 years. Cost-effectiveness of vaccination was determined in terms of costs per life year gained. The value of an additional life year was borrowed from new, innovative oncological drugs, as cancer reflects a condition with a similar morbidity and mortality burden in the general population in the short term as COVID-19. Results A vaccine with 50% efficacy against death due to COVID-19 was not clearly cost-effective compared to a long-term mitigation strategy if mitigation measures were planned to be lifted after vaccine rollout. The minimum vaccine efficacy to achieve cost-effectiveness was 40% in the base case. The sensitivity analysis shows considerable variation around the minimum vaccine efficacy, extending above 50% for some of the input variables. Conclusions This study shows that vaccine efficacy levels expected before clinical trial announcements did not clearly justify lifting mitigation measures from a cost-effectiveness standpoint. Hence, the sluggish EU’s procurement strategy still appeared to be rational at the time of decision making.