scholarly journals Statistical Distribution of Novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract Background The Corona Virus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by 2019-nCoV is spreading worldwide, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Prevention and control of infection is the most important priority for the public health. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is an important problem. Methods In this research, we compared the different distributions of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data of Iran. We used 36 initial data on new cases and deaths with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection of Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes .We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal and Weibull. Results Our study showed that the weibull distribution was the best fit with the data. But the Parameters of distribution were different between new cases and daily deaths data. Conclusion According to the mean and median of the best fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. The death rate is decreasing. We can see the similar behaviors of covid-19 in both Iran and China in the long run.

scholarly journals Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-146
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull. Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths. Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Decoding Manipulative Strategies and Ideological Features in Trump’s Speech on the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Critical Political Discourse Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. p14
Author(s):  
Franck Amoussou ◽  
Nathalie J. A. Aguessy
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
Political Discourse ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Power And Control ◽  
Political Discourse Analysis ◽  
The One ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

The novel coronavirus is one of the most tragic epidemic diseases the world has ever faced thus far. Therefore, the governments of all countries have taken a range of measures against it. This article preforms a critical analysis on a political discourse, notably president Trump’s March 11, 2020 speech about the global pandemic. Using a multi- disciplinary approach as suggested by representatives of critical discourse analysis, it attempts to unpack or decipher the ideologies behind the discourse on the one hand, and to reveal how the discourse contributes to manipulating the public opinion through structural and contextual features of power and control, on the other hand.

scholarly journals Internet Hospitals Help Prevent and Control the Epidemic of COVID-19 in China: Multicenter User Profiling Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Gong ◽  
Zhong Xu ◽  
Zhefeng Cai ◽  
Yuxiu Chen ◽  
Zhanxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
User Profiling ◽  
Kappa Score ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND During the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), internet hospitals in China were engaged with epidemic prevention and control, offering epidemic-related online services and medical support to the public. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to explore the role of internet hospitals during the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. METHODS Online epidemic-related consultations from multicenter internet hospitals in China during the COVID-19 epidemic were collected. The counselees were described and classified into seven type groups. Symptoms were recorded and compared with reported patients with COVID-19. Hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were detected within each counselees’ group to evaluate the social panic of the epidemic along with the consequent medical-seeking behaviors. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for an offline visit were compared. Risk factors affecting the counselees’ tendency of hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were explored by logistic regression models. The epidemic prevention and control measures based on internet hospitals were listed, and the corresponding effects were discussed. RESULTS A total of 4913 consultations were enrolled for analysis with the median age of the counselees at 28 years (IQR 22-33 years). There were 104 (2.12%) healthy counselees, 147 (2.99%) hypochondriacal counselees, 34 (0.69%) exposed counselees, 853 (17.36%) mildly suspicious counselees, 42 (0.85%) moderately suspicious counselees, 3550 (72.26%) highly suspicious counselees, and 183 (3.72%) severely suspicious counselees. A total of 94.20% (n=4628) of counselees had epidemic-related symptoms with a distribution similar to those of COVID-19. The hypochondriacal suspicion (n=2167, 44.11%) was common. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for offline visits were inconsistent (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) with a Cohen kappa score of 0.039, indicating improper medical-seeking behaviors. Adult counselees (odds ratio [OR]=1.816, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) with epidemiological exposure (OR 7.568, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), shortness of breath (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.001), diarrhea (OR 1.272, <i>P</i>=.04), and unrelated symptoms (OR 1.509, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to have hypochondriacal suspicion. Counselees with severe illnesses (OR 2.303, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), fever (OR 1.660, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), epidemiological exposure history (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.01), and hypochondriacal suspicion (OR 4.826, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to attempt an offline visit. Reattending counselees (OR 0.545, <i>P</i>=.002) were less motivated to go to the offline clinic. CONCLUSIONS Internet hospitals can serve different types of epidemic counselees, offer essential medical supports to the public during the COVID-19 outbreak, reduce the social panic, promote social distancing, enhance the public’s ability of self-protection, correct improper medical-seeking behaviors, reduce the chance of nosocomial cross-infection, and facilitate epidemiological screening, thus, playing an important role on preventing and controlling COVID-19.

scholarly journals Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Willingness to Adopt Healthy Dietary Habits in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Xu ◽  
Zhixue Li ◽  
Weijun Yu ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
Zheng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Subjective Perception ◽  
Nutritional Interventions ◽  
Willingness To Adopt ◽  
Willingness To Change ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: To investigate impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on willingness to adopt healthy dietary habits in China. Methods: A survey was carried out, and subjective perception of impact due to COVID-19 and willingness to change dietary habits were obtained. Results: A total of 22,459 subjects were derived from China, with an average age of 27.9±7.8 years old. Of them, the mean score of willingness to adopt healthy dietary habits was 2.2 (ranges from -9 to 9). Multivariate regression analysis showed that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (epidemic concern, impact of psychology, impact of work or study) are associated with a higher score of willingness to adopt healthy dietary habits among female, the older, on-medical worker, and individuals married or with higher education level, normal BMI. Conclusions: There was a positive improvement to a proper diet, so the changing features of diets should be considered in nutritional interventions for maintaining health, and prevention and control COVID-19 during the pandemic period.

scholarly journals Analysis of Potential Risk of COVID-19 Infections in China Based on a Pairwise Epidemic Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofeng Luo ◽  
Shanshan Feng ◽  
Junyuan Yang ◽  
Xiao-Long Peng ◽  
Xiaochun Cao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Disease Propagation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data ( R 2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The R eff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Spreadable Virus of the 21stCentuary: COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1&2) ◽  
pp. 13-18
Author(s):  
Priya Chaudhary ◽  
Pracheta Janmeda
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Process ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Ground Glass Opacity ◽  
Nasal Discharge ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Third ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The latest outbreak of a respiratory disease, known as coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is the third virus spillover from animals to humans in the last two decades. The disease is caused by coronavirus and has converted into an epidemic in recent days. It spread via direct contact or droplets of nasal-discharge from one human-to-another within the mean-incubation period of 6.5 days. Dyspnea, cough and fever are the most common symptoms in the patients of COVID-19, though along with diarrhea in 3% cases. Bilateral pulmonary with ground-glass opacity and consolidation has been observed in 98% cases of the disease by the help of computed tomography.  The treatment process of COVID-19 with chloroquine and remdesivir drug is under the clinical trial worldwide and responding well to cure the disease. Under the prevalent circumstances, the main goal is to control the widespread infection of SARS-CoV-2 across the world and to aware the public regarding the possible preventive measures and treatments. However, the public health authorities should keep a close eye on the circumstances strictly, as the more we know about this novel coronavirus and its outbreak, the better we can respond or control the conditions worldwide.

scholarly journals Epidemiological analysis of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in two cities in China based on public data

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ning Zhou ◽  
Xiaomeng Zhang ◽  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Lu Gao ◽  
Penghui Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Epidemiological Analysis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
And Control

Abstract Based on the public data from the health departments of Tianjin and Shenzhen, we conducted a comparative analysis of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic situation between these two cities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of public data in epidemic prevention and control of COVID-19, providing a scientific advice for the subsequent mitigation and containment of COVID-19 prevalence.

scholarly journals Reduction in time delay of isolation in COVID-19 cases in South Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sukhyun Ryu ◽  
Cheolsun Jang ◽  
Baekjin Kim
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mean Delay ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractKorean public health authorities raised the public alert to its highest level on February 23, 2020 to mitigate the 2019 novel coronavirus disease epidemic. We have identified that the mean delay from symptom onset to isolation was reduced to one day after raising the alert. Vigilance can reduce this interval.

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