Time series analysis of tuberculosis registration rates from 2007 to 2019 and prediction: could tuberculosis control milestones be achieved in 2020 and 2025 in Henan Province, China?

Abstract Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline, the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB) incidence rate should be 20% and 50% in 2020 and 2025, respectively. The incidence number of PTB in China accounted for 9% of the global total in 2018, which ranked the second high in the world. From 2007 to 2019, 854,672active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province, China. We need to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province. Methods: The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to2019, registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System (CTIMS) were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025, which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones. The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016, and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019. Monthly and annual active PTB registration rates and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 2020 to 2025 were predicted. Results: High active PTB registration rates in March, April, May and June showed the seasonal variations. The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model. The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019. The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.2 (95% CI: 36.0-62.5) and 34.3 (95% CI: 17.7-50.8) per 100 ,000 population in 2020 and 2025 , respectively. Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015, the reduction will reach 23.7% (95% CI: 3.1%-44.2%) and 46.9% (95% CI: 21.3%-72.5%) in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Conclusions: The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicates that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province. Without regard to the confidence interval, the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved. However, the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province, China. Trial registration: Not applicable

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Tuberculosis registration rates analysis and prediction based on exponential smoothing model: could tuberculosis control milestones be achieved in 2020, 2025 in Henan province, China?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19666/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yanqiu Zhang ◽

Xinxu Li ◽

Weibin Li ◽

Jianguo Jiang ◽

Guolong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Confidence Interval ◽

Early Response ◽

Information Management System ◽

Exponential Smoothing ◽

Early Summer ◽

Henan Province ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Response Measures ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline, the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence should be 20% and 50% in 2020 and 2025, respectively. The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9% of the global total in 2018, which ranked the second high in the world. From 2007 to 2019, 854,672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province, China. We need to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.Methods: The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019, registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System (CTIMS) were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025, which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones. The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016, and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019. Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.Results: High active PTB registration rates in March, April, May and June showed the seasonal variations. The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model. The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019. The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1 (95% CI: 36.2-62.0) and 34.4 (95% CI: 18.6-50.2) per 100,000 population in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015, the reduction will reach 23.7% (95% CI: 3.2%-44.1%) and 46.8% (95% CI: 21.4%-72.1%) in 2020 and 2025, respectively.Conclusions: The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province. Without regard to the confidence interval, the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved. However, the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province, China.

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Tuberculosis registration rates analysis and prediction based on Exponential Smoothing model: could tuberculosis control milestones be achieved in 2020, 2025 in Henan Province, China?

10.21203/rs.3.rs-19666/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yanqiu Zhang ◽

Xinxu Li ◽

Weibin Li ◽

Jianguo Jiang ◽

Guolong Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Confidence Interval ◽

Early Response ◽

Information Management System ◽

Exponential Smoothing ◽

Early Summer ◽

Henan Province ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Response Measures ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline, the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence should be 20% and 50% in 2020 and 2025, respectively. The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9% of the global total in 2018, which ranked the second high in the world. From 2007 to 2019, 854,672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province, China. We need to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.Methods: The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019, registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System (CTIMS) were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025, which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones. The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016, and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019. Monthly and annual active PTB registration rates and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.Results: High active PTB registration rates in March, April, May and June showed the seasonal variations. The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model. The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019. The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.2 (95% CI: 36.0-62.5) and 34.3 (95% CI: 17.7-50.8) per 100,000 population in 2020 and 2025, respectively. Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015, the reduction will reach 23.7% (95% CI: 3.1%-44.2%) and 46.9% (95% CI: 21.3%-72.5%) in 2020 and 2025, respectively.Conclusions: The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicates that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province. Without regard to the confidence interval, the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved. However, the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province, China.Trial registration: Not applicable

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Use of the World Health Organization Access, Watch, and Reserve Classification to Follow Trends in Prescription of Antibiotic Use in Two Pediatric Intensive Care Units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Journal of Pediatric Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1055/s-0040-1701648 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 15 (03) ◽

pp. 155-160

Author(s):

André Ricardo Araujo da Silva ◽

Cristina Vieira de Souza Oliveira ◽

Cristiane Henriques Teixeira ◽

Izabel Alves Leal

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

World Health Organization ◽

Pediatric Intensive Care ◽

Antibiotic Use ◽

Antibiotic Consumption ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

Abstract Objective The recommended percentage of antibiotic use in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) using the World Health Organization (WHO) Access, Watch, and Reserve (AWaRE) classification is not known. Methods We have conducted an interrupted time series analysis in two PICUs in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, over a period of 18 months. The type of antibiotics used was evaluated using the WHO AWaRE classification, and the amount of antibiotic was measured using days of therapy/1,000 patient-days (DOT/1000PD) after implementation of an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP). The first and last semesters were compared using medians and the Mann–Whitney's test. The trends of antibiotic consumption were performed using time series analysis in three consecutive 6-month periods. Results A total of 2,205 patients were admitted, accounting for 12,490 patient-days. In PICU 1, overall antibiotic consumption (in DOT/1000PD) was 1,322 in the first 6 months of analysis and 1,264.5 in the last 6 months (p = 0.81). In PICU 2, the consumption for the same period was 1,638.5 and 1,344.5, respectively (p = 0.031). In PICU 1, the antibiotics classified in the AWaRE groups were used 33.2, 57.9, and 8.4% of the time, respectively. The remaining 0.5% of antibiotics used were not classified in any of these groups. In PICU 2, the AWaRE groups corresponded to 30.2, 60.5, and 9.3% of all antibiotics used, respectively. There was no use of unclassified antibiotics in this unit. The use of all three groups of WHO AWaRE antibiotics was similar in the first and the last semesters, with the exception of Reserve group in PICU 2 (183.5 × 92, p = 0.031). Conclusion A significant reduction of overall antibiotic use and also in the Reserve group was achieved in one of the PICU units studied. The antibiotics classified in the Watch group were the most used in both units, representing ∼60% of all the antibiotics consumed.

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Assessment of the Context for eHealth Development in the Philippines: A Work in Progress from 1997 to 2020

Acta Medica Philippina ◽

10.47895/amp.v55i6.3208 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 55 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Jinky Leilanie Lu ◽

Portia Grace F. Marcelo

Keyword(s):

World Health Organization ◽

Information And Communication Technologies ◽

National Level ◽

Information Management System ◽

The Philippines ◽

World Health ◽

Successful Implementation ◽

International Telecommunication Union ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

Introduction. eHealth is described by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) for health. The use of eHealth closes the gaps in terms of geographical barriers, time constraints, lack of healthcare professionals in healthcare and service delivery. This study is important as it provides the current landscape and status of eHealth in the Philippines. Hence, policymakers, program implementors as well as other stakeholders, including the public, will be able to know which eHealth and telemedicine services and products are available in various sectors of society, either private or government, what are the existing gaps in eHealth, and the trajectory in the future based on the guide of the World Health Organization - International Telecommunication Union (WHO-ITU). Objectives. The objectives of the study are 1) to provide a landscape of eHealth in the Philippines since its start in the country; 2) to identify programs, services, and technology innovations implemented in the country on eHealth and telemedicine; and 3) to identify Philippine systems that correspond to the eHealth components laid out by WHO-ITU for a successful implementation of eHealth at a national level. Methods. We conducted an extensive review of the literature and key informant interviews with eHealth experts in the Philippines. The literature review covered research and studies, gray literature, peer-reviewed journals, databases, and government statistics. The years covered in this study span a total of 24 years from 1997, which is the beginning of the information management system as an institutional approach in the country, to 2020. The assessment tool was based on the framework provided by the WHO-ITU on the context for eHealth development. Results. The National Telehealth Center (NTHC) of the Philippines began with projects for 1) eLearning, 2) eMedicine, 3) eRecords, 4) eHealth Policy and Advocacy, and 5) eSurveillance. Telemedicine services are now being offered by hospitals in the country. This shows eHealth services, in general, and telemedicine are being utilized in not only targeting the poor, but also in giving faster, more efficient, and equally effective virtual health services to the general public, even the private-pay patients. Conclusion. The sustainability of eHealth in the Philippines still depends on the national effort to institutionalize an eHealth structure and eHealth system where the various components are interrelated.

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Evaluation of the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: A time series study

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0256169 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. e0256169

Author(s):

Ketyllem Tayanne da Silva Costa ◽

Thiffany Nayara Bento de Morais ◽

Dayane Caroliny Pereira Justino ◽

Fábia Barbosa de Andrade

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Health Surveillance ◽

World Health ◽

Microsoft Excel ◽

Time Series Study ◽

The World ◽

Independent Variable ◽

Health Organization ◽

Series Study

The World Health Organization declared, at the end of 2019, a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19. Currently, Brazil has become the epicenter of the disease, registering approximately 345 thousand deaths. Thus, the study has scientific relevance in health surveillance as it identifies, quantifies and monitors the main behavioral patterns of the mortality rate due to COVID-19, in Brazil and in their respective regions. In this context, the study aims to assess the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: a time series study, referring to the year 2020. This is an ecological time series study, constructed using secondary data. The research was carried out in Brazil, having COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable that occurred between the 12th and 53rd Epidemiological Week of 2020. The independent variable will be the epidemiological weeks. The data on deaths by COVID-19 were extracted in February 2021, on the Civil Registry Transparency Portal. The cleaning of the database and the information were treated in the Microsoft Excel® Software and, for statistical analysis, the JoinPoint software, version 4.7.0.0 was used. It was observed that Brazil presents an upward curve between the 12th and 19th SE, when it reaches saturation at the peak of mortality, which remains until the 35th SE and, subsequently, a downward curve was identified until the 47th SE, period in the which curve turns back up.

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Appropriate Number of Observations For Determining Hand Hygiene Compliance Among Healthcare Workers

10.21203/rs.3.rs-659400/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Se Yoon Park ◽

Suyeon Park ◽

Eunjung Lee ◽

Tae Hyong Kim ◽

Sungho Won

Keyword(s):

Confidence Interval ◽

Hand Hygiene ◽

Healthcare Workers ◽

Hand Hygiene Compliance ◽

Mean Value ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Minimum Number ◽

Hygiene Compliance ◽

Health Organization

Abstract We sought to determine the minimum number of observations needed to determine hand hygiene (HH) compliance among healthcare workers. The study was conducted at a referral hospital in South Korea. We retrospectively analyzed the result of HH monitoring from January to December 2018. HH compliance was calculated by dividing the number of observed HH actions by the total number of opportunities. Optimal HH compliance rates were calculated based on adherence to the six-step technique recommended by the World Health Organization. The minimum number of required observations (n) was calculated by the following equation using overall mean value (r), absolute precision (d), and confidence interval (CI) (1-α) [The equation: n ≥ Z2 α/2 * p * (1-p)/d2 ]. We considered ds of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30%, with CIs of 99%, 95%, and 90%. During the study period, 8,791 HH opportunities among 1,168 healthcare workers were monitored. Mean HH compliance and optimal HH compliance rates were 80.3% and 59.7%, respectively. The minimum number of observations required to determine HH compliance rates ranged from 2 (d: 30%, CI: 90%) to 624 (d: 5%, CI: 99%), and that for optimal HH compliance ranged from 5 (d: 30%, CI: 90%) to 642 (d: 5%, CI: 99%). We found that at least five observations were needed to determine optimal HH compliance with 30% absolute precision and a 90% CI.

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Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0256516 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. e0256516

Author(s):

Ali Hadianfar ◽

Razieh Yousefi ◽

Milad Delavary ◽

Vahid Fakoor ◽

Mohammad Taghi Shakeri ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Government Policies ◽

World Health ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Social Interventions ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Daily Data ◽

The World ◽

Health Organization

Background Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis. Methods Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)’s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed. Results The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p<0.001)), while the implementation of social distancing measures was followed by a significant decrease in such cases (2,182.80; 95% CI, 1,556.56 to 2,809.04; p<0.001). Conclusion The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively. These results highlight the necessity of measuring the effect of health and social interventions for their future implementations.

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Impact Analysis of COVID 19 Response Measures on Social Media Postings

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1217984/v1 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Farrukh Hasan Syed ◽

Muhammad Sudais

Keyword(s):

Social Media ◽

Impact Analysis ◽

World Health ◽

Residential Areas ◽

The Social ◽

The World ◽

Response Measures ◽

Global Concern ◽

Health Organization ◽

The Impact

Abstract Declared a pandemic in March 2020, SARS-COVID19 has become a health emergency of global concern. The World Health Organization has directed the countries all over the world to take measures to stop the spread of disease. There was a public outburst for policies like lockdown and a mixed review for Working from Home on social networking platforms. By analyzing this change, we can identify the sentiment of people about different policies. A lot of work has been done on sentiment analysis of Covid19 tweets. This is an in-depth impact analysis of COVID-19 response measures on sentiments of tweets. It can help us understand the social media trends revolving around COVID19. For achieving the goal, Google Mobility Report has been used for obtaining data about the mobility in different countries. A huge collection of tweets is extracted using Twitter API. Both datasets are used to analyze multiple trends over a period of more than a year. This article shows the change in social media sentiments with the evolving state of pandemic and the steps taken by authorities. Although, number of cases have more impact on Sentiments, the impact of changing mobility of residential and non-residential areas is also not negligible because average sentiments have seen significant up and down trends because of changing government policies.

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Southern African responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: A study of Botswana and South Africa

Africa’s Public Service Delivery and Performance Review ◽

10.4102/apsdpr.v9i1.497 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Tyanai Masiya ◽

David Mandiyanike ◽

Dintle Molosiwa ◽

Adrino Mazenda

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

South African ◽

World Health ◽

Effective Management ◽

African Countries ◽

Study Approach ◽

The World ◽

Response Measures ◽

Health Organization

Background: Southern African countries adopted diverse responses to the challenge posed by the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, which manifested itself as both a health and economic disaster.Aim: Using a case study approach of two South African countries, namely Botswana and South Africa, the article assessed their response measures to the COVID-19 pandemic.Setting: Southern African countries applied ‘domesticated’ forms of responses thus, there has been no one-size-fits-all approach to managing the pandemic.Methods: The study adopted a qualitative approach. Two case studies namely Botswana and South Africa were used. Documentary evidence was drawn from these case studies.Results: To ensure that Southern African countries and indeed the world in general navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed operational planning guidelines that had sought to balance the demands of responding effectively to COVID-19 and the need to serve economies from collapse. However, an analysis of the programmes of responses in South African countries such as Botswana showed the ‘domestication’ of the guidelines. Nevertheless, the guidelines, although having met with criticism in some cases had significantly contributed to the effective management of COVID-19 health and economic effects.Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic required the state and its institutions to exercise effective leadership and unified action. In South African countries such as Botswana and South Africa, this pandemic showed the importance of governments in shaping the effectiveness of national responses, strategies and approaches in tackling the crisis.

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Appropriate number of observations for determining hand hygiene compliance among healthcare workers

Antimicrobial Resistance and Infection Control ◽

10.1186/s13756-021-01035-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Se Yoon Park ◽

Suyeon Park ◽

Beom Seuk Hwang ◽

Eunjung Lee ◽

Tae Hyong Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Confidence Interval ◽

Hand Hygiene ◽

Healthcare Workers ◽

Hand Hygiene Compliance ◽

Mean Value ◽

World Health ◽

The World ◽

Minimum Number ◽

Hygiene Compliance ◽

Health Organization

AbstractWe sought to determine the minimum number of observations needed to determine hand hygiene (HH) compliance among healthcare workers. The study was conducted at a referral hospital in South Korea. We retrospectively analyzed the result of HH monitoring from January to December 2018. HH compliance was calculated by dividing the number of observed HH actions by the total number of opportunities. Optimal HH compliance rates were calculated based on adherence to the six-step technique recommended by the World Health Organization. The minimum number of required observations (n) was calculated by the following equation using overall mean value (ρ), absolute precision (d), and confidence interval (CI) (1 − α) [the equation: $${\text{n}} \ge Z_{\alpha /2}^{2} \times \rho \times \left( {1 - \rho } \right)/d^{2}$$ n ≥ Z α / 2 2 × ρ × 1 - ρ / d 2 ]. We considered ds of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30%, with CIs of 99%, 95%, and 90%. During the study period, 8791 HH opportunities among 1168 healthcare workers were monitored. Mean HH compliance and optimal HH compliance rates were 80.3% and 59.7%, respectively. The minimum number of observations required to determine HH compliance rates ranged from 2 ($$d$$ d : 30%, CI: 90%) to 624 ($$d$$ d : 5%, CI: 99%), and that for optimal HH compliance ranged from 5 ($$d$$ d : 30%, CI: 90%) to 642 ($$d$$ d : 5%, CI: 99%). Therefore, we found that our hospital required at least five observations to determine optimal HH compliance.

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