Spatial modeling of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii Engelm (Pinaceae): A species conservation proposal in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALDO Rafael MARTINEZ ◽  
Jose Villanueva Diaz ◽  
Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones ◽  
Jorge Luis Becerra-López ◽  
José Antonio Hernández-Herrera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Pinus Greggii

Abstract Background Studies in Mexico have shown that the genus Pine has always been under evolutionary changes, however currently they have accelerated as a result of human activities. Pinus greggii is a species restricted by particular environmental conditions of the Sierra Madre Occidental, which is of socio-economic importance in terms of wood production and provides environmental services to the ecosystem. Species distribution models are a relevant geospatial tool in decision making, and notable applications exist such as identifying areas of distribution and zones susceptible to climate change. The objectives of this study were: 1) model and quantify the current distribution, and possible future distribution under four scenarios of climate change; 2) identify the most relevant environmental variables that drive changes in distribution; and 3) to propose adequate zones for the species’ conservation in Mexico. Methods 438 records of Pinus greggii from several national and international databases were obtained, and were cleaned up to get rid of duplicates and overestimations in the models. Climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables were used and were generated 100 distribution models for current and future scenarios with Maxent software. Results The model one under replicated of crossvalidation had the best statistic, with an area under the curve of 0.88 and 0.93 for model training and validation, respectively, a partial ROC of 1.94, and a significant Z test (p < 0.01). The current estimated area of Pinus greggii in Mexico was 617,706.04 ha and the most important environmental variables for current distribution were the annual mean temperature, mean temperature of coldest quarter, and slope. For the 2041–2060 models, annual mean temperature, precipitation of coldest quarter, and slope were most important. The future models (2041–2060) predict a decrease in suitable habitat for the species from 48,403.85 (7.8%; HadGEM2-ES RCP 8.5 model) to 134,680.17 ha (21.8%; CNRM-CM5 RCP 4.5). Conclusions The spatial modeling of current and future conditions of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii in this study allows the proposal of two zones for conservation purpose and in situ restoration for the species in northeastern (Nuevo Leon) and central (Hidalgo) Mexico.

scholarly journals Spatial modeling of the ecological niche of Pinus greggii Engelm. (Pinaceae): a species conservation proposal in Mexico under climatic change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 426-434
Author(s):  
AR Martínez-Sifuentes ◽  
J Villanueva-Díaz ◽  
U Manzanilla-Quiñones ◽  
JL Becerra-López ◽  
JA Hernández-Herrera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Pinus Greggii

scholarly journals Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) Under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie Wells ◽  
David Tonkyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Butterfly Species ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Future

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern US. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two, phylogenetically disjunct mountainous regions. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, CCSM and MIROC, under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve test and the True Skill Statistics (mean AUC = 0.91&plusmn; 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 &plusmn; 0.0032 SE for RCP = 4.5, and mean AUC = 0.87&plusmn; 0.0031SE, TSS = 0.84 &plusmn; 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Duo Wang ◽  
Ge Guo ◽  
Meixia Zhang ◽  
Jiayi Lang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Insect Pest ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Mean Temperature

Abstract Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis’s potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

Species Distribution Models (SDM) – A Strategic Tool for Predicting Suitable Habitats for Conserving the Target Species

2017 ◽  
pp. 427-440
Author(s):  
Balaguru Balakrishnan ◽  
Nagamurugan Nandakumar ◽  
Soosairaj Sebastin ◽  
Khaleel Ahamed Abdul Kareem
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Target Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Conservation of the species in their native landscapes required understanding patterns of spatial distribution of species and their ecological connectivity through Species Distribution Models (SDM) by generation and integration of spatial data from different sources using Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. SDM is an ecological/spatial model which combines datasets and maps of occurrence of target species and their geographical and environmental variables by linking various algorithms together, that has been applied to either identify or predict the regions fulfilling the set conditions. This article is focused on comprehensive review of spatial data requirements, statistical algorithms and softwares used to generate the SDMs. This chapter also includes a case study predicting the suitable habitat distribution of Gnetum ula, an endemic and vulnerable plant species using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model for species occurrences with inputs from environmental variables such as bioclimate and elevation.

scholarly journals Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris

Oryx ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Shaun W. Molloy ◽  
Allan H. Burbidge ◽  
Sarah Comer ◽  
Robert A. Davis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Degradation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
The Future

AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Genomic assessment of local adaptation in dwarf birch to inform assisted gene flow

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S. Borrell ◽  
Jasmin Zohren ◽  
Richard A. Nichols ◽  
Richard J. A. Buggs
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gene Flow ◽  
Local Adaptation ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Allele Frequencies ◽  
Species Range ◽  
Conservation Action ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Dwarf Birch

AbstractWhen populations of a rare species are small, isolated and declining under climate change, some populations may become locally maladapted. Detecting this maladaptation may allow effective rapid conservation interventions, even if based on incomplete knowledge. Population maladaptation may be estimated by finding genome-environment associations (GEA) between allele frequencies and environmental variables across a local species range, and identifying populations whose allele frequencies do not fit with these trends. We can then design assisted gene flow strategies for maladapted populations, to adjust their allele frequencies, entailing lower levels of intervention than with undirected conservation action. Here, we investigate this strategy in Scottish populations of the montane plant dwarf birch (Betula nana). In genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data we found 267 significant associations between SNP loci and environmental variables. We ranked populations by maladaptation estimated using allele frequency deviation from the general trends at these loci; this gave a different prioritization for conservation action than the Shapely Index, which seeks to preserve rare neutral variation. Populations estimated to be maladapted in their allele frequencies at loci associated with annual mean temperature were found to have reduced catkin production. Using an environmental niche modelling (ENM) approach, we found annual mean temperature (35%), and mean diurnal range (15%), to be important predictors of the dwarf birch distribution. Intriguingly, there was a significant correlation between the number of loci associated with each environmental variable in the GEA, and the importance of that variable in the ENM. Together, these results suggest that the same environmental variables determine both adaptive genetic variation and species range in Scottish dwarf birch. We suggest an assisted gene flow strategy that aims to maximize the local adaptation of dwarf birch populations under climate change by matching allele frequencies to current and future environments.

scholarly journals Modeling of the Potential Geographical Distribution of Three Fritillaria Species Under Climate Change

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiping Jiang ◽  
Meng Zou ◽  
Yu Qin ◽  
Guodong Tan ◽  
Sipei Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Fritillaria Species

Fritillaria species, a well-known Chinese traditional medicine for more than 2,000 years, have become rare resources due to excessive harvesting. In order to balance the economical requirement and ecological protection of Fritillaria species, it is necessary to determine (1) the important environmental variables that were responsible for the spatial distribution, (2) distribution change in response to climate change in the future, (3) ecological niche overlap between various Fritillaria species, and (4) the correlation between spatial distribution and phylogenies as well. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for Fritillaria cirrhosa, Fritillaria unibracteata, and Fritillaria przewalskii were predicted using MaxEnt based on the current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The result indicated that precipitation and elevation were the most important environmental variables for the three species. Moreover, the current suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa, F. unibracteata, and F. przewalskii encompassed 681,951, 481,607, and 349,199 km2, respectively. Under the scenario of the highest concentration of greenhouse gas emission (SSP585), the whole suitable habitats of F. cirrhosa and F. przewalskii reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100, while those of F. unibracteata reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100 under the scenario of moderate emission (SSP370) from 2021 to 2100. The MaxEnt data were also used to predict the ecological niche overlap, and thus high overlap occurring among three Fritillaria species was observed. The niche overlap of three Fritillaria species was related to the phylogenetic analysis despite the non-significance (P &gt; 0.05), indicating that spatial distribution was one of the factors that contributed to the speciation diversification. Additionally, we predicted species-specific habitats to decrease habitat competition. Overall, the information obtained in this study provided new insight into the potential distribution and ecological niche of three species for the conservation and management in the future.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants

2019 ◽  
Vol 124 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Paula Araujo Correa-Lima ◽  
Isabela Galarda Varassin ◽  
Narayani Barve ◽  
Victor Pereira Zwiener
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Tropical Plant

Abstract Backgrounds and Aims Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant–pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants. Methods We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Key Results Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability. Conclusions Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

scholarly journals Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Jesse A. Tabor ◽  
Jonathan B. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Invasive Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

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