scholarly journals Compartmentalized mathematical model to predict future number of active cases and deaths of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osmar Pinto Neto ◽  
José Clark Reis ◽  
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi ◽  
Gustavo José Zambrano ◽  
Joabe Marcos de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Global Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Active Curve

Abstract In December 2019, China reported a series of atypical pneumonia cases caused by a new Coronavirus, called COVID-19. In response to the rapid global dissemination of the virus, on the 11th of Mars, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a pandemic. In light of this situation, this paper intends to analyze and improve the current SEIR models to better represent the behavior of the COVID-19 and accurately predict the outcome of the pandemic in a given social, economic and political scenario. We present a novel generalized Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model and test it using a global optimization algorithm with data collected from the WHO. Our main results were: (a) our model was able to accurately fit the data of all countries tested (b) it is possible to predict values for one week ahead with errors in the order of 15% for the number of cases and 30% in the number of deaths for all countries; (c) predictions are better for countries where the active cases curve already reached the maximum; the error being in the order of 10% in the number of cases and 20% in the number of deaths; (d) for countries where the active curve is still growing, different optimization solutions can be found that fit the data; so, to predict future behavior in this scenarios some of the model coefficients should be estimated from outside sources or based on generalized results from other countries according to their health policies of social distance, quarantining and case test and tracing.

scholarly journals Wellness Constraints Among International University Students Transitioning Through Covid 19

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 3444-3456
Author(s):  
Mr J Dorasamy, Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
World Health ◽  
Social Emotional ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
International University ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The World Health Organization (Who) In March 2020 Declared Covid 19 A Pandemic, Due To The  Global And Rapid Spread Of A Novel Coronavirus (Who, 2020). The Covid 19 Pandemic Being Highly Infectious And Unpredictable, Has  Disrupted  Social, Economic, Environmental And Political Spheres Of Life. Globally, People Have Ventured Into A “Lockdown World”, Increasing Uncertainty About Their Future Amidst The Covid 19 Pandemic. As A Result Of The Pandemic, Social Alteration Has Taken The Form Of Social Distancing, Self-Isolation And Self-Quarantine.  Many Were Unprepared For The Shift From The “Normal”, Propelling  Undue  Stress Under The New Normal Way Of Doing Things During The Current Global Pandemic Crisis. This Has Been Accompanied By Social, Emotional And Mental Effects, As The Ongoing And Fluid Nature Of The Pandemic Has Created Uncertainty For Many People. The Covid 19 Pandemic, As A Multidimensional Stressor Affecting Wellbeing, Has Affected Individuals, Families, Educational, Occupational, And Broader Societal Systems.  

scholarly journals A Review of the Preclinical and Clinical Efficacy of Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, and Lopinavir-Ritonavir Treatments against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 1108-1122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawid Maciorowski ◽  
Samir Z. El Idrissi ◽  
Yash Gupta ◽  
Brian J. Medernach ◽  
Michael B. Burns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastrointestinal Symptoms ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Live Animal ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

In December of 2019, an outbreak of a novel coronavirus flared in Wuhan, the capital city of the Hubei Province, China. The pathogen has been identified as a novel enveloped RNA beta-coronavirus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a disease characterized by severe atypical pneumonia known as coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). Typical symptoms of this disease include cough, fever, malaise, shortness of breath, gastrointestinal symptoms, anosmia, and, in severe cases, pneumonia.1 The high-risk group of COVID-19 patients includes people over the age of 60 years as well as people with existing cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes mellitus. Epidemiological investigations have suggested that the outbreak was associated with a live animal market in Wuhan. Within the first few months of the outbreak, cases were growing exponentially all over the world. The unabated spread of this deadly and highly infectious virus is a health emergency for all nations in the world and has led to the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a pandemic on March 11, 2020. In this report, we consolidate and review the available clinically and preclinically relevant results emanating from in vitro animal models and clinical studies of drugs approved for emergency use as a treatment for COVID-19, including remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, and lopinavir-ritonavir combinations. These compounds have been frequently touted as top candidates to treat COVID-19, but recent clinical reports suggest mixed outcomes on their efficacies within the current clinical protocol frameworks.

scholarly journals A Symptom-based COVID-19 Diagnostic Tool in case of Limited Testing Facilities

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-75
Author(s):  
Raiiq Ridwan ◽  
Md Robed Amin ◽  
Md Ridwanur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Transmission Of Disease ◽  
Limited Testing ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Since December 2019, when a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases were identified in Wuhan, China a new disease has spread across the world. COVID-19 has since become the biggest pandemic in a century, touching lives in almost every country in the world. At the outset of COVID-19, the World Health Organization advised for testing to become a priority so that patients with COVID-19 could be quickly identified, isolated and treated to interrupt transmission of disease. However, testing shortages have been an increasing problem in low and middle income countries. Even when tests are available, it has proved time-consuming. Therefore, we propose a symptom-based tool to assist in the diagnosis of COVID-19 management in low and middle income Countries. It is based on the symptoms that have so far been described in the literature and advises the frontline healthcare worker on how to diagnose the likelihood of having COVID-19 and separate the patient into Red (very likely), Yellow (possible) and Green (unlikely) categories. J Bangladesh Coll Phys Surg 2020; 38(0): 71-75

scholarly journals Vietnamese Public Health Practices in the Advent of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons for Developing Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 163-164
Author(s):  
Jeconiah Louis Dreisbach
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Short Communication ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presents a great challenge to developing countries with limited access to public health measures in grassroots communities. The World Health Organization lauded the Vietnamese government for its proactive and steady investment in health facilities that mitigate the risk of the infectious disease in Vietnam. This short communication presents cases that could benchmark public health policies in developing countries.

scholarly journals A comparison of COVID-19, SARS and MERS

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Hu ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
Mingyi Zhao ◽  
Quan Zhuang ◽  
Linyong Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Optimal Method ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

In mid-December 2019, a novel atypical pneumonia broke out in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and was caused by a newly identified coronavirus, initially termed 2019 Novel Coronavirus and subsequently severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of 19 May 2020, a total of 4,731,458 individuals were reported as infected with SARS-CoV-2 among 213 countries, areas or territories with recorded cases, and the overall case-fatality rate was 6.6% (316,169 deaths among 4,731,458 recorded cases), according to the World Health Organization. Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 is notably similar to (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) SARS-CoV that emerged in 2002–2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) that spread during 2012, and these viruses all contributed to global pandemics. The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to rapidly spread a pneumonia-like disease from Hubei Province, China, throughout the world has provoked widespread concern. The main symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) include fever, cough, myalgia, fatigue and lower respiratory signs. At present, nucleic acid tests are widely recommended as the optimal method for detecting SARS-CoV-2. However, obstacles remain, including the global shortage of testing kits and the presentation of false negatives. Experts suggest that almost everyone in China is susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to date, there are no effective treatments. In light of the references published, this review demonstrates the biological features, spread, diagnosis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 as a whole and aims to analyse the similarities and differences among SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV to provide new ideas and suggestions for prevention, diagnosis and clinical treatment.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of COVID-19: What have we learnt until now?

2021 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-11
Author(s):  
Tatjana Pekmezović
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
World Health ◽  
Unknown Etiology ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
Health Organization

The first case in the outbreak of atypical pneumonia of unknown etiology, later confirmed as disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, was described in Wuhan (China) on December 8, 2019. The rapid expansion of COVID-19 cases prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global health emergency, and on March 11, 2020, COVID-19 was officially classified as a pandemic disease by the WHO. It is generally accepted that both genders and all ages in the population are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data from the real life also show difficulties in reaching the threshold of herd immunity. Thanks to the vaccination, some populations are approaching the theoretical threshold of immunity, but the spread of the virus is still difficult to stop. If we add to that the fact that we still do not know how long immunity lasts after the infection, the conclusion is that vaccination is unlikely to completely stop the spread of the virus, and that we must think about it. Vaccines certainly significantly reduce the hospitalization rate and mortality rate, and the assumption is that the virus will not disappear soon, but the severity of the disease and its fatality will be of marginal importance. The development of the epidemiological situation related to the COVID-19 is constantly changing and it significantly differs in various parts of the world, which is affected by differences in financial resources, health infrastructure and awareness of prevention and control of the COVID-19. Attempts are being made to make dynamically adjusted strategies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, that is, the new normality.

scholarly journals Healthcare system in the rural region (local government) of Nigeria: legal framework, obstacles and challenges to provide medical care

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 653-666
Author(s):  
Rita Dashe SELKUR
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Rural Region ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Health Programmes

It is often said that health is wealth. That being the case then, health is an asset to be desired because a healthy man is a wealthy man equally; a healthy nation is invariably a wealthy nation. Health has been described a fundamental human right indispensable for the exercise of other human rights. This implies that the state has a responsibility for the health of her people. Every human being is entitled to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health conducive to living a life in dignity. The realization of these may be pursued through numerous, complimentary approaches, such as the formulation of health policies, or the implementation of health programmes developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the adoption of specific legal instruments. Poor health inflicts great hardships on communities whereby the health status of people in the community affect their abilities to work and thus underpins the welfare of such community. This paper will attempt to examine what health care is at the rural region, the legal framework as encapsulated in the various legal instruments, obstacles and steps towards change.

Surviving the Future: Mexican Health Policies and Deceitfulness of Universal Coverage in the State of Puebla, México

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 197-208
Author(s):  
Luis Berruecos
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Universal Coverage ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
The State ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mexican State ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Two years ago, the Governor of the Mexican State of Puebla declared that his State was fully covered by health services, which is not true. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Mexican Constitution, health is one of the most important human rights for every citizen. However, according to our statistics, many indigenous communities of that State are still waiting for those services, even though the budget designated for that purpose has been incremented ten times in the last seven years. Since I have been working for years in the highlands of the northern part of the State, I will prove that medical services are not covering the total population, which means that the future survival of these people is rather grim.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 and the Risk Assessment Document in Italian Work; Specific or Generic Risk Even If Aggravated?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3729
Author(s):  
Luigi Cirrincione ◽  
Venerando Rapisarda ◽  
Walter Mazzucco ◽  
Rosanna Provenzano ◽  
Emanuele Cannizzaro
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Work Activities ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Health Legislation ◽  
And Control

In December 2019, several cases of atypical pneumonia were detected in Wuhan city, Hubei province, inland China. The initial outbreak was of considerable size first in China subsequently spread to the rest of the world. Immediately after the epidemic (which according to the World Health Organization had risen to pandemic status), the problem of whether or not to update the occupational risk assessment arose, also considering how the biological risk from SARS CoV-2 should be understood: specific or generic. To this end, we conducted a literature review to identify national health legislation and policies, examining how Italy has addressed the COVID-19 emergency in occupational health planning, in order to develop considerations on the need to update the Risk Assessment Document following the pandemic status. The data that emerged from the review of current legislation allowed us to conclude that the risk from SARS-CoV-2 is in most work activities to be understood as a generic or aggravated generic risk, requiring the employer to apply and control the preventive measures suggested by health authorities to contain the spread of the virus.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document