scholarly journals Stringent Government Policies Are Associated With a Lower COVID-19 Spread Rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Zongfeng Xiu ◽  
jingwei Yin ◽  
Jeffrey Zhang ◽  
Pengshuo Feng
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Order Restrictions ◽  
School Closing ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 has prompted a wide range of policy responses from governments around the world. In this study, we investigate the effect of governmental policies on the spread of the COVID-19 in a cross-country setting using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index. We find that stringent government policies overall, and the following policies in particular, are associated with a lower spread rate of COVID-19 cases: workplace closing, restrictions on gatherings, close of public transport, stay-at-home order, restrictions on internal movement, and international travel controls; while school closing and public events cancellation are not associated with a lower COVID-19 spread. After including all policies into one single regression and examining their associations simultaneously with the virus spread, we find that the two policies stand out and remain to have a negative association with the COVID-19 spread: close of public transport and restrictions on international travel. Finally, we show that when countries are more oriented toward a tight culture, their governmental strict policies effect on the spread of COVID-19 becomes 1.5 – 3 times stronger than countries more toward a loose culture. Our findings suggest that the governments need to carefully implement policies to cope with the COVID-19 spread in their own social and cultural context.  

scholarly journals Variational-LSTM Autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed R. Ibrahim ◽  
James Haworth ◽  
Aldo Lipani ◽  
Nilufer Aslam ◽  
Tao Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
School Closing ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractModelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational LSTM-Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represent the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

scholarly journals Variational-LSTM autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0246120
Author(s):  
Mohamed R. Ibrahim ◽  
James Haworth ◽  
Aldo Lipani ◽  
Nilufer Aslam ◽  
Tao Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Public Information ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
School Closing ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational-LSTM Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep Spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represents the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate a graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.

scholarly journals Using volunteered geographic information to assess mobility in the COVID-19 pandemic context: cross-city time series analysis of 41 cities in 22 countries from March 2nd to 26th 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matia Vanoni ◽  
Martin McKee ◽  
Chris Bonell ◽  
Jan Semenza ◽  
David Stuckler
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Restricting mobility is a central aim for lowering contact rates and preventing COVID-19 transmission. Yet the impact on mobility of different policies of restriction is not well-understood.Methods: Trends were evaluated using Citymapper’s mobility index covering 41 cities worldwide between 2nd and 26th March 2020, expressed as percentages of typical usage periods from 0% as the lowest and 100% as normal. China and India were not covered. Multivariate fixed effects models were used to estimate the association of policies restricting movement on mobility before and after their introduction. Policy restrictions were assessed using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index as well as measures coding the timing and degree of school and workplace closures, transport restrictions, and cancellation of mass gatherings. Results: Mobility declined in all major cities throughout March. Larger declines were seen in European than Asian cities. The COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index was strongly associated with declines in mobility (r = -0.75, p<0.001). After adjusting for time-trends, we observed that implementing a mobility restriction to the recommended level was associated with a decline of mobility of 10.0% for school closures (95% CI: 4.36% to 15.7%), 15.0% for workplace closures (95% CI: 10.2% to 19.8%), 7.09% for cancelling public events (95% CI: 1.98% to 12.2%), 18.0% for closing public transport (95% CI: 6.74% to 29.2%), 13.3% for restricting internal movements (95% CI: 8.85% to 17.8%) and 5.30% for international travel controls (95% CI: 1.69 to 8.90). In contrast, as expected, there was no association between population mobility changes and fiscal or monetary measures or emergency healthcare investment.Conclusions: Understanding the effect of public policy on mobility is crucial to slowing and reducing COVID-19 transmission. By using Citymapper’s mobility index, this work provides the first evidence about trends in mobility and the impacts of different policy interventions, suggesting that closure of public transport, workplaces and schools are particularly impactful.

scholarly journals Using volunteered geographic information to assess mobility in the COVID-19 pandemic context: cross-city time series analysis of 41 cities in 22 countries from March 2nd to 26th 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matia Vanoni ◽  
Martin McKee ◽  
Chris Bonell ◽  
Jan Semenza ◽  
David Stuckler
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives: Restricting mobility is a central aim for lowering contact rates and preventing COVID-19 transmission. Yet the impact on mobility of different non-pharmaceutical countermeasures in the earlier stages of the pandemic is not well-understood.Design: Trends were evaluated using Citymapper’s mobility index covering 2nd to 26th March 2020, expressed as percentages of typical usage periods from 0% as the lowest and 100% as normal. China and India were not covered. Multivariate fixed effects models were used to estimate the association of policies restricting movement on mobility before and after their introduction. Policy restrictions were assessed using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index as well as measures coding the timing and degree of school and workplace closures, transport restrictions, and cancellation of mass gatherings.Setting: 41 cities worldwideMain outcome measures: Citymapper’s mobility indexResults: Mobility declined in all major cities throughout March. Larger declines were seen in European than Asian cities. The COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index was strongly associated with declines in mobility (r = -0.75, p<0.001). After adjusting for time-trends, we observed that implementing non-pharmaceutical countermeasures was associated with a decline of mobility of 10.0% for school closures (95% CI: 4.36% to 15.7%), 15.0% for workplace closures (95% CI: 10.2% to 19.8%), 7.09% for cancelling public events (95% CI: 1.98% to 12.2%), 18.0% for closing public transport (95% CI: 6.74% to 29.2%), 13.3% for restricting internal movements (95% CI: 8.85% to 17.8%) and 5.30% for international travel controls (95% CI: 1.69 to 8.90). In contrast, as expected, there was no association between population mobility changes and fiscal or monetary measures or emergency healthcare investment.Conclusions: Understanding the effect of public policy on mobility in the early stages is crucial to slowing and reducing COVID-19 transmission. By using Citymapper’s mobility index, this work provides the first evidence about trends in mobility and the impacts of different policy interventions, suggesting that closure of public transport, workplaces and schools are particularly impactful.Summary boxWhat is already known on this topic?Governments across the global are experimenting with a range of policy interventions to restrict movement in populations. Yet their impact is not well understood. There is an urgent need to understand how alternative policy approaches to restricting movement can impact on population mobility trends. What this study addsOur study finds that policy restrictions markedly reduced population-wide mobility. Closing public transport, workplaces and schools have among the largest associations with mobility declines.

scholarly journals Using volunteered geographic information to assess mobility in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-city time series analysis of 41 cities in 22 countries from March 2nd to 26th 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matia Vannoni ◽  
Martin McKee ◽  
Jan C. Semenza ◽  
Chris Bonell ◽  
David Stuckler
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Mobility Index ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objectives Restricting mobility is a central aim for lowering contact rates and preventing COVID-19 transmission. Yet the impact on mobility of different non-pharmaceutical countermeasures in the earlier stages of the pandemic is not well-understood. Design Trends were evaluated using Citymapper’s mobility index covering 2nd to 26th March 2020, expressed as percentages of typical usage periods from 0% as the lowest and 100% as normal. China and India were not covered. Multivariate fixed effects models were used to estimate the association of policies restricting movement on mobility before and after their introduction. Policy restrictions were assessed using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index as well as measures coding the timing and degree of school and workplace closures, transport restrictions, and cancellation of mass gatherings. Setting 41 cities worldwide. Main outcome measures Citymapper’s mobility index. Results Mobility declined in all major cities throughout March. Larger declines were seen in European than Asian cities. The COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index was strongly associated with declines in mobility (r = − 0.75, p < 0.001). After adjusting for time-trends, we observed that implementing non-pharmaceutical countermeasures was associated with a decline of mobility of 10.0% for school closures (95% CI: 4.36 to 15.7%), 15.0% for workplace closures (95% CI: 10.2 to 19.8%), 7.09% for cancelling public events (95% CI: 1.98 to 12.2%), 18.0% for closing public transport (95% CI: 6.74 to 29.2%), 13.3% for restricting internal movements (95% CI: 8.85 to 17.8%) and 5.30% for international travel controls (95% CI: 1.69 to 8.90). In contrast, as expected, there was no association between population mobility changes and fiscal or monetary measures or emergency healthcare investment. Conclusions Understanding the effect of public policy on mobility in the early stages is crucial to slowing and reducing COVID-19 transmission. By using Citymapper’s mobility index, this work provides the first evidence about trends in mobility and the impacts of different policy interventions, suggesting that closure of public transport, workplaces and schools are particularly impactful.

scholarly journals TARGET MODAL SPLIT MODEL

Transport ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Basarić ◽  
Jadranka Jović
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Stepwise Regression ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Transport Policy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Novi Sad ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City ◽  
Statistical Results

The research presented in this paper is aimed at defining a model that enables the management of the relationship between private vehicles and public transport applying the available instruments of city transport policy such as parking policy and public transport policy measures. Statistical data used for modelling is sourced from the database in a wide range of EU cities. The target model was developed in the form of stepwise regression analysis. Very favourable statistical results were obtained, and the subsequent tests on the city of Novi Sad (250000 inhabitants) led to the conclusion that the obtained results were suitable for implementation in practice. The results of the implemented procedure are of great importance for the enhancement of the existing transport policies in cities, as they enable the development of strategies for finding combinations of instruments that would bring the transport system and urban environment into a desired-viable rather than consequential condition.

scholarly journals Pandemic and Indonesia Stock Market Performance

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 254-262
Author(s):  
Intan Surya Lesmana ◽  
Siti Saadah
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Asymmetric Model ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia’s stock market performance. Considering the characteristics of daily stock return data that shows the characteristics of volatility clustering, the analytical method used is to develop a heteroscedastic model specification whose parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Based on data from March 2020 to January 2021, this study finds that the Exponential-GARCH asymmetric model is the best model compared to the Standard-GARCH symmetric model or the asymmetric Threshold-GARCH model. The inference analysis conducted on the Exponential-GARCH asymmetric model in this study shows that the stock market's performance that is significantly affected by this pandemic is the volatility of its returns. Stock price volatility is one of the important variables in stock market performance. This study produces empirical findings that government policies on social restrictions contribute significantly to suppressing stock market volatility. As for government policies in mitigating the risk of the spread of the epidemic, in this study, it is measured through a stringency index. This index was released by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) which monitors the government's response to the coronavirus in 160 countries and is a parameter that evaluates the policies taken by a country's government based on nine metrics. This index does not measure the effectiveness of a country's government response, but only the level of tightness. However, the results of the tests carried out in this study did not find a significant impact of pandemic indicators, the number of cases, and the number of daily deaths related to COVID-19 on stock returns.

scholarly journals Relative contribution of leaving home for work or education, transport, shopping and other activities on risk of acquiring COVID-19 infection outside the household in the second wave of the pandemic in England and Wales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Hoskins ◽  
S Beale ◽  
RW Aldridge ◽  
AMD Navaratnam ◽  
C Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Transport ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Or Education ◽  
Leaving Home ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Household Activities ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractBackgroundWith the potential for and emergence of new COVID-19 variants, such as the reportedly more infectious Omicron, and their potential to escape the existing vaccines, understanding the relative importance of which non-household activities increase risk of acquisition of COVID-19 infection is vital to inform mitigation strategies.MethodsWithin an adult subset of the Virus Watch community cohort study, we sought to identify which non-household activities increased risk of acquisition of COVID-19 infection and which accounted for the greatest proportion of non-household acquired COVID-19 infections during the second wave of the pandemic. Among participants who were undertaking antibody tests and self-reporting PCR and lateral flow tests taken through the national testing programme, we identified those who were thought to be infected outside the household during the second wave of the pandemic. We used exposure data on attending work, using public or shared transport, using shops and other non-household activities taken from monthly surveys during the second wave of the pandemic. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess the relative independent contribution of these exposures on risk of acquiring infection outside the household. We calculated Adjusted Population Attributable Fractions (APAF - the proportion of non-household transmission in the cohort thought to be attributable to each exposure) based on odds ratios and frequency of exposure in cases.ResultsBased on analysis of 10475 adult participants including 874 infections acquired outside the household, infection was independently associated with: leaving home for work (AOR 1.20 (1.02 – 1.42) p=0.0307, APAF 6.9%); public transport use (AOR for use more than once per week 1.82 (1.49 – 2.23) p<0.0001, APAF for public transport 12.42%); and shopping (AOR for shopping more than once per week 1.69 (1.29 – 2.21) P=0.0003, APAF for shopping 34.56%). Other non-household activities such as use of hospitality and leisure venues were rare due to restrictions and there were no significant associations with infection risk.ConclusionsA high proportion of the second wave of the pandemic was spent under conditions where people were being advised to work from home where possible, and to minimize exposure to shops, and a wide range of other businesses were subject to severe restrictions. Vaccines were being rolled out to high-risk groups. During this time, going to work was an important risk factor for infection but public transport use likely accounted for a lot of this risk. Only a minority of the cohort left home for work or used public or shared transport. By contrast, the majority of participants visited shops and this activity accounted for about one-third of non-household transmission.

scholarly journals Issue of Integrity of Art Education in the Context of Changes in Art and Visual Culture

Pedagogika ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-179
Author(s):  
Edita Musneckienė
Keyword(s):  
Visual Culture ◽  
Art Education ◽  
Contemporary Art ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Arts Education ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Thinking Skills ◽  
Education Programs ◽  
Creative People ◽  
Wide Range

This article examines a paradigmatic change of contemporary art education in the context of visual culture and focus to the integrity of arts in formal and informal art education. The article is based on an international research “Contemporary art and visual culture in education” which reveals the problematic aspects of contemporary arts and visual culture in education in general. The research method was the discourse analysis of the participants and researchers, who presented the insights in reflective groups and during the interview with teachers and educators.This paper explores how contemporary cultural context and the spread of visual culture provide preconditions for changes in art education. The aim of the article is to analyze theproblems and perspectives of integral arts education in formal and non-formal education: what the educational challenges and opportunities appear in the context of contemporary art and visual culture? How the integral arts could be realized in art education practice in different arts disciplines and areas of education?Contemporary art and visual culture is increasingly multidimensional, the wide range of visual art forms integral with per formative arts, new technologies and media merge the limits between the arts disciplines. That becomes relevant pedagogical problem with the fact that arts education is traditionally allocated to the separate arts subjects such as music, art, theatre, dance, which also can also be divided into separate areas. This subject segregation of the school curriculum and strong subject orientation limits multimodal contemporary arts education. Secondary Education programs provide opportunities for several options of arts education disciplines (photography, cinema art, graphic design, contemporary music technologies), but it needs special resources for the schools and professional teachers. Many schools follow on traditional model of teaching art and still focusing on simple interpretation of modern artworks, different media and technical skills.Contemporary model of teaching integrated arts and visual culture in education is challenging, because it is based on visual literacy and critical thinking skills, it emphasizes inquiry-based education, a critical understanding of contemporary art practices, problem solving and creating new valuable ideas. Knowledge and experiences came from various sources: formal, non-formal, accidental, individual.Great potential for contemporary art education has non-formal art education programs and projects. Successful project-based initiatives in art education have been excellent examples of arts integration.Artists and other creative people involved into a process of education, their collaboration with schools and communities could initiate some interdisciplinary and collaborative practices. Non-formal arts education environment creates more space for creativity, freedom and diversity. Additional arts education programs, museum and gallery education, artistic competitions and international projects allows for the wider development of arts education. Art education in the new age requires changing attitudes towards learning and teaching, changing roles of the educator and new learning environments.

The Style of the Neo-Greek (Neo-Grec) in the Historical and Cultural Context of the Southern Region of Russia by the Example of the Cities of Rostov-on-Don and Yessentuki

2018 ◽  
Vol 931 ◽  
pp. 705-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenia M. Kishkinova
Keyword(s):  
National Identity ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Main Task ◽  
The South ◽  
Distinctive Features ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Insufficient Knowledge ◽  
European Architecture

In European architecture the Neo-Grec style, based on a revival of Greek principles and motifs, is an independent stage in rediscovering of classical antique heritage. It is one of the “new styles” of a historicist phase in architecture that claimed to find national identity in the architecture of independent Greece. In Russian architecture of the mid-19th – early 20th centuries this style is represented in a wide range of monuments that are mostly located in the South of Russia. However insufficient knowledge and research on the monuments of this style create difficulties for their maintenance and restoration. The purpose of the paper is to identify distinctive features of neo-grec in the region. The main task is to determine the reasons for a turn to neo-grec in the South of Russia, to identify and analyze neo-grec buildings in the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Yessentuki, to examine their composition and décor, to identify their ancient prototypes, to differentiate constant and variable elements in the architecture of the Neo-Grec.

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