scholarly journals Impact of lockdown on Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate and Viral Mutations Spread.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Pachetti ◽  
Bruna Marini ◽  
Fabiola Giudici ◽  
Francesca Benedetti ◽  
Silvia Angeletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Biological Significance ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Standard Case ◽  
Diagnostic Pcr ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Public Data

Abstract BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China and has become a public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11th, 2020 and the same month several countries put in place different lockdown restrictions and testing strategies in order to contain the spread of the virus. MethodsThe calculation of the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the countries selected was made by using the data available at https://github.com/owid/covi-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Case fatality rate was calculated as the ratio between the death cases due to COVID-19, over the total number of SARS-CoV-2 reported cases 14 days before. Standard Case Fatality Rate values were normalized by the country-specific ρ factor, i.e. the number of PCR tests/1 million inhabitants over the number of reported cases/1 million inhabitants. Case-fatality rates between countries were compared using proportion test. Post-hoc analysis in the case of more than two groups was performed using pairwise comparison of proportions and p-value was adjusted using Holm method.We also analyzed 487 genomic sequences from the GISAID database derived from patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 from January 2020 to April 2020 in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Sweden, UK and USA. SARS-CoV-2 reference genome was obtained from the GenBank database (NC_045512.2). Genomes alignment was performed using Muscle and Jalview software. We, then, calculated the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the countries selected ResultsIn this study we analyse how different lockdown strategies and PCR testing capability adopted by Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK and USA have influenced the Case Fatality Rate and the viral mutations spread. We calculated case fatality rates by dividing the death number of a specific day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection observed 14 days before and normalized by a ρ factor which takes into account the diagnostic PCR testing capability of each country and the number of positive cases detected. We notice the stabilization of a clear pattern of mutations at sites nt241, nt3037, nt14408 and nt23403. A novel nonsynonymous SARS-CoV-2 mutation in the spike protein (nt24368) has been found in genomes sequenced in Sweden, which enacted a soft lockdown strategy.ConclusionsStrict lockdown strategies together with a wide diagnostic PCR testing of the population were correlated with a relevant decline of the case fatality rate in different countries. The emergence of specific patterns of mutations concomitant with the decline in case fatality rate needs further confirmation and their biological significance remains unclear.

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown on Covid-19 Case Fatality Rate and Viral Mutations Spread in 7 Countries in Europe and North America.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Pachetti ◽  
Bruna Marini ◽  
Fabiola Giudici ◽  
Francesca Benedetti ◽  
Silvia Angeletti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Biological Significance ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Standard Case ◽  
Diagnostic Pcr ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Public Data

Abstract Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China and has become a public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11th, 2020 and the same month several Countries put in place different lockdown restrictions and testing strategies in order to contain the spread of the virus. Methods: The calculation of the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected was made by using the data available at https://github.com/owid/covi-19-data/tree/master/public/data. Case fatality rate was calculated as the ratio between the death cases due to COVID-19, over the total number of SARS-CoV-2 reported cases 14 days before. Standard Case Fatality Rate values were normalized by the Country-specific ρ factor, i.e. the number of PCR tests/1 million inhabitants over the number of reported cases/1 million inhabitants. Case-fatality rates between Countries were compared using proportion test. Post-hoc analysis in the case of more than two groups was performed using pairwise comparison of proportions and p-value was adjusted using Holm method.We also analyzed 487 genomic sequences from the GISAID database derived from patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 from January 2020 to April 2020 in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Sweden, UK and USA. SARS-CoV-2 reference genome was obtained from the GenBank database (NC_045512.2). Genomes alignment was performed using Muscle and Jalview software. We, then, calculated the Case Fatality Rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Countries selected. Results: In this study we analyse how different lockdown strategies and PCR testing capability adopted by Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, UK and USA have influenced the Case Fatality Rate and the viral mutations spread. We calculated case fatality rates by dividing the death number of a specific day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection observed 14 days before and normalized by a ρ factor which takes into account the diagnostic PCR testing capability of each Country and the number of positive cases detected. We notice the stabilization of a clear pattern of mutations at sites nt241, nt3037, nt14408 and nt23403. A novel nonsynonymous SARS-CoV-2 mutation in the spike protein (nt24368) has been found in genomes sequenced in Sweden, which enacted a soft lockdown strategy.Conclusions: Strict lockdown strategies together with a wide diagnostic PCR testing of the population were correlated with a relevant decline of the case fatality rate in different Countries. The emergence of specific patterns of mutations concomitant with the decline in case fatality rate needs further confirmation and their biological significance remains unclear.

scholarly journals Population-Predicted MHC Class II Epitope Presentation of SARS-CoV-2 Structural Proteins Correlates to the Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19 in Different Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 2630
Author(s):  
Chunguang Liang ◽  
Elena Bencurova ◽  
Eric Psota ◽  
Priya Neurgaonkar ◽  
Martina Prelog ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mhc Class Ii ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Class Ii ◽  
Viral Envelope ◽  
Structural Proteins ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Different Populations ◽  
Infection Spread

We observed substantial differences in predicted Major Histocompatibility Complex II (MHCII) epitope presentation of SARS-CoV-2 proteins for different populations but only minor differences in predicted MHCI epitope presentation. A comparison of this predicted epitope MHC-coverage revealed for the early phase of infection spread (till day 15 after reaching 128 observed infection cases) highly significant negative correlations with the case fatality rate. Specifically, this was observed in different populations for MHC class II presentation of the viral spike protein (p-value: 0.0733 for linear regression), the envelope protein (p-value: 0.023), and the membrane protein (p-value: 0.00053), indicating that the high case fatality rates of COVID-19 observed in some countries seem to be related with poor MHC class II presentation and hence weak adaptive immune response against these viral envelope proteins. Our results highlight the general importance of the SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins in immunological control in early infection spread looking at a global census in various countries and taking case fatality rate into account. Other factors such as health system and control measures become more important after the early spread. Our study should encourage further studies on MHCII alleles as potential risk factors in COVID-19 including assessment of local populations and specific allele distributions.

scholarly journals Managing older adults’ fear of coronavirus disease: A new role for social work practice

2020 ◽  
pp. 147332502097329
Author(s):  
Hamed Mortazavi
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Social Work Practice ◽  
World Health ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

As the number of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (nCOVID-19) increases, the number of deaths has also been increasing. According to World Health Organization (WHO), as of 4 October 2020, 34,804,348 cases had tested positive for nCOVID-19 globally, which among them, 1,030,738 confirmed deaths had occurred, equivalent to a case-fatality rate of 2.96%. However, in comparison with global statistics, the incidence and mortality of the nCOVID-19 infection are higher in Iran. As reported by the National Committee on COVID-19 Epidemiology of Ministry of Health of Iran, the total number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection has reached 468,119, of which 26,746 have died, equivalent to a case-fatality rate of 5.71%. Currently, there is solid evidence that older adults are at a higher risk of severe disease following infection from COVID-19.

scholarly journals Pemberantasan Sarang Nyamuk 3M Plus terhadap Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Puskesmas Payung Sekaki Kota Pekanbaru; Studi Kasus Kontrol

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyagita Widya Sari ◽  
Retno Putri
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Purposive Sampling

Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) adalah penyakit menular yangdisebabkan oleh virus Dengue dan ditularkan melalui gigitan nyamukAedes aegypti. Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Riau melaporkan jumlah kasusDBD sebanyak 277 dan Case Fatality Rate (CFR) DBD sebesar 1,4% padatahun 2016, di mana kasus terbanyak berasal dari Kota Pekanbaru yaitu58 kasus dengan CFR sebesar 0%. Adapun, CFR DBD di wilayah kerjaPuskesmas Payung Sekaki meningkat dari 0% pada tahun 2015 menjadi0,7% pada tahun 2016. DBD merupakan penyakit berbasis lingkunganyang dapat dicegah dengan melakukan tindakan pengendalian vektor,antara lain dengan pemberantasan sarang nyamuk (PSN) dan tindakanpencegahan lainnya. Akan tetapi, partisipasi aktif masyarakat dalam PSNmasih rendah dan kurang. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengetahuihubungan PSN 3M Plus dengan kejadian DBD di wilayah kerja PuskesmasPayung Sekaki Kota Pekanbaru tahun 2017. Penelitian ini dilakukan padabulan Agustus tahun 2017. Desain studi penelitian ini adalah observasionaldengan pendekatan kasus kontrol. Jumlah sampel kasus dipilih denganteknik total sampling yaitu 40 kasus, sedangkan sampel kontrol dipilihdengan teknik purposive sampling yaitu 80 kontrol. Analisis datamenggunakan uji regresi logistik ganda. Hasil analisis multivariatmenunjukkan bahwa kebiasaan menggunakan obat nyamuk palingdominan menjelaskan perubahan variabel kejadian DBD (p-value = 0,092;OR = 2,76; 95% CI = 0,85-8,87). Variabel praktik M1 (menguras TPA),keberadaan kawat kassa nyamuk dalam ventilasi rumah, kebiasaanmenggantung pakaian, dan kebiasaan menggunakan obat nyamukberhubungan dan merupakan faktor risiko kejadian DBD di wilayah kerjaPuskesmas Payung Sekaki Kota Pekanbaru

scholarly journals Trend of case fatality rate during first 30 days of COVID-19 epidemic; the example of Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e05-e05
Author(s):  
Khatereh Anbari ◽  
Seyyed Amir Yasin Ahmadi ◽  
Mitra Elmi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Scientific Databases ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Descriptive Approach ◽  
Polymerase Chain ◽  
Health Organization

Introduction: One of the unusual aspects in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is changing case fatality rate (CFR) in different time series. Many researchers are trying to find the reasons of this variability. Objectives: This study aimed to present a model for a 30-day trend of CFR in any infectious disease epidemic using the example of COVID-19 in Iran. Patients and Methods: As a case study, we tried to use statistical mining of scientific databases. A descriptive approach with quantitative tools was conducted. The World Health Organization (WHO) database was used to access daily reports of CFR. Funnel plot and Z score were used to study and graph the trend. Results: During this period of time, a total of 20610 cases were confirmed based on real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Among them, 1556 individuals died. Therefore, CFR was calculated as 7.549% (95% confidence intervals 7.189%-7.910%). This frequency was considered as the pooled frequency. Daily CFR with 95% CI was compared with the pooled frequency. Conclusion: In our case, the epidemic was started from high CFR due to low number of cases and testing only highly suspicious individuals. Then, the CFR was reduced due to increased number of patients and improvement in screening. Finally, CFR went back to its moderate rate due to the addition of the death numbers related to the cases of previous days.

scholarly journals Clinical characteristics of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengfei Sun ◽  
Shuyan Qie ◽  
Zongjan Liu ◽  
Jizhen Ren ◽  
Jianing Xi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Muscle Soreness ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Abnormal Chest ◽  
Number Of Patients

AbstractObjectiveWe aim to summarize reliable evidences of evidence-based medicine for the treatment and prevention of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by analyzing all the published studies on the clinical characteristics of patients with 2019-nCoV.MethodsPubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and other databases were searched. Several studies on the clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection were collected for Meta-analysis.ResultsTen studies were included in Meta-analysis, including a total number of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection. Meta-analysis shows that, among these patients, the incidence of fever was 89.1%, the incidence of cough was 72.2%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue was 42.5%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest computer tomography (CT) was 96.6%, the percentage of severe cases in all infected cases was 18.1%, and the case fatality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.3%.ConclusionFever and cough are the most common symptoms in patients with 2019-nCoV infection, and most of these patients have abnormal chest CT examination. Several people have muscle soreness or fatigue as well as ARDS. Diarrhea, hemoptysis, headache, sore throat, shock, and other symptoms only occur in a small number of patients. The case fatality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection is lower than that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

scholarly journals Incidence and case fatality rate of COVID-19 in patients with active epilepsy

Neurology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (10) ◽  
pp. e1417-e1425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Cabezudo-García ◽  
Nicolás Lundahl Ciano-Petersen ◽  
Natalia Mena-Vázquez ◽  
Gracia Pons-Pons ◽  
María Victoria Castro-Sánchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Active Epilepsy ◽  
Patients With Epilepsy

ObjectiveThis article estimates the incidence and fatality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and identifies potential risk factors for fatality in patients with active epilepsy.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional observational study of patients with active epilepsy and COVID-19. A control group was used to compare the cumulative incidence and case-fatality rate (CFR). The main outcomes of the study were cumulative incidence, defined as number of patients with active epilepsy and COVID-19 admitted to an emergency department divided by the total number of patients with epilepsy at risk, and CFR based on the number of deaths during the enrollment period. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate risk factors for fatality in patients with active epilepsy.ResultsOf the 1,537 patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 21 (1.3%) had active epilepsy. The cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval [CI]) of COVID-19 in patients with epilepsy was higher (1.2% [0.6–2.4]) compared to the population without epilepsy (0.5% [0.5–0.5]). In reverse transcription PCR–positive patients, there were no significant differences in CFR in patients with active epilepsy compared to patients without epilepsy (33.3% vs 8.3%; p = 0.266). Of the 21 patients with active epilepsy, 5 (23%) died. In multivariate analysis, the factor associated with fatality in patients with active epilepsy was hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 2.8 [95% CI 1.3–21.6]). In another model, age (OR 1.0 [95% CI 1.0–1.1]) and epilepsy (OR 5.1 [95% CI 1.3–24.0]) were associated with fatality during hospitalization.ConclusionCOVID-19 cumulative incidence was higher in patients with active epilepsy. Epilepsy was associated with fatality during hospitalization. Hypertension was associated with fatality in patients with epilepsy.

scholarly journals Covid-19 High Attack Rate Can Lead to High Case Fatality Rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tareef Fadhil Raham
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Paired Samples ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: During the current Covid-19 pandemic case fatality rate (CFR) estimates were subjected to a lot of debates regarding the accuracy of its estimations, predictions, and the reason of across countries variances. In this context, we conduct this study to see the relationship between attack rate (AR) and CFR. The study hypothesis is based on two: 1- evidence suggests that the mortality rate (MR) has a positive influence on case fatality ratio (CFR), 2- and increase number of Covid-19 cases leads to increased mortality rate (MR). Material and methods: Thirty countries and territories were chosen. Inclusion criterion was > 500 Covid-19 reported cases per 10,000 population inhabitants. Data on covid-19 cases and deaths was selected as it was on March 10, 2021. Statistical methods used are descriptive and one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S), the one-way ANOVA, Levene, least significant different (LSD), and matched paired-samples T-tests. Results: ANOVA test showed a significant difference at P<0.01 among all studied groups concerning AR and CFR mean values. Group of countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants recorded the highest level of crude mean CFR and AR values, and recorded the highest gap with leftover groups, especially with countries reported MR of <10 death/ 104 inhabitants. There were independence 95% confidence intervals of mean CFR and AR values between countries with ≥ 15 death / 104 MR and countries with MR of <10 death /104. There was a significant difference between countries with MR ≥ 15 death / 104 inhabitants and countries with MR of <10 death / 10 4 inhabitants groups through least significant difference (LSD) test for CFR%( 0.042 p-values) and Games Howell (GH) test for AR/104 (p-value 0.000). Conclusions: CFR has a positive significant association with AR.

scholarly journals Blastomycosis in Northwestern Ontario, 2004 to 2014

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 259-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Dalcin ◽  
Syed Zaki Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Invasive Fungal Disease ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Northwestern Ontario ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Canadian Studies ◽  
History Of

Blastomycosis is an invasive fungal disease caused byBlastomyces dermatitidisand the recently discoveredBlastomyces gilchristii. The medical charts of 64 patients with confirmed cases of blastomycosis in northwestern Ontario during a 10-year period (2004 to 2014) were retrospectively reviewed. The number of patients diagnosed with blastomycosis in Ontario was observed to have increased substantially compared with before 1990, when blastomycosis was removed from the list of reportable diseases. Aboriginals were observed to be disproportionately represented in the patient population. Of the patients whose smoking status was known, 71.4% had a history of smoking. 59.4% of patients had underlying comorbidities and a higher comorbidity rate was observed among Aboriginal patients. The case-fatality rate from direct complications of blastomycosis disease was calculated to be 20.3%; this case-fatality rate is the highest ever to be reported in Canada and more than double that of previously published Canadian studies. The clinical characteristics of 64 patients diagnosed with blastomycosis are summarized.

scholarly journals Konseling WhatsApp Gateway untuk Meningkatkan Kesiapsiagaan Masyarakat dalam Menghadapi Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (03) ◽  
pp. 244-249
Author(s):  
Riris Andriati ◽  
Fenita Purnama Sari Indah ◽  
Andiyan Andiyan ◽  
Marta Desri Ayu
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
T Test ◽  
P Value ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Quasi Experiment

Sampai 31 Maret 2020, Indonesia melaporkan 1.528 kasus terkonfirmasi C dengan 136 kematian dan tingkat kematian (case fatality rate) 8,9%. Pandemi Covid-19 membuat aktifitas menjadi serba terbatas, tidak terkecuali dengan penyebaran informasi sehingga edukasi intensif dibutuhkan untuk membentuk kesiapsiagaan masyarakat. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh konseling melalui WhatsApp terhadap kesiapsiagaan masyarakat Villa Pamulang Depok dalam menghadapi Covid-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode quasi experiment yang bersifat analitik dan one group pretest-posttest design. Sampel dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 44 orang yang diperoleh dengan teknik proportional sample. Responden diberikan edukasi melalui WhatsApp selama 14 hari. Pengaruh penyebaran informasi melalui WhatsApp diukur dengan menggunakan paired sampel t-test. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya hubungan antara penyebaran informasi Covid-19 melalui WhatsApp terhadap kesiapsiagaan masyarakat Villa Pamulang Depok dalam mengahadapi Covid-19 dengan p-value=0,004. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan perbedaan kesiapsiagaan Covid-19 sebelum dan sesudah pemberian informasi Covid-19 melalui WhatsApp. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menambahkan pengetahuan terhadap kesiapsiaagan masyarakat sebagai upaya pencegahan Covid-19.

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