scholarly journals Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Huan Ma ◽  
Suru Yue ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

scholarly journals Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Diabetes in China from 1990 to 2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxue Liu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu ◽  
Yongbo Wang ◽  
Yongyi Bi ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing in China, but the secular trends in incidence and mortality remain unknown. This study aims to examine time trends from 1990 to 2017 and the net age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes incidence and mortality. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 5–9 to 80–84 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: The joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.3%) in men and 0.69% in women (95% CI: 0.3%, 1.0%) from 1990 to 2017; age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.78% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in men and decreased by 0.12% (95% CI: −0.4%, 0.1%) in women. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of 30–34, 60–64, 65–69 and 70–74 age groups in men and 25–29, 30–34, 35–39 and 70–74 age groups in women; mortality in men decreased in the younger age groups (from 20–24 to 45–49 age group) while increased in the older age groups (from 50–54 to 80–84 age group), and mortality in women decreased for all age groups with exception of the age group 75–79 and 80–84. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age while mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period while the period trend on incidence began to decrease since 2007; cohort effect on incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts while incidence showed no material changes from 1982–1986 to 2012–2016 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups. Incidence increased in most age groups. The net age or period effect showed an unfavorable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favorable trend. Aging likely drives a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for obesity prevention, healthy diet and regular physical activity should be conducted, especially for men and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

scholarly journals Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004–2019: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5607
Author(s):  
Luqi Wang ◽  
Weibing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
The Past

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

scholarly journals The long-term rapid increase in incidence of adenocarcinoma of the kidney in the USA, especially among younger ages

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tongzhang Zheng ◽  
Cairong Zhu ◽  
Bryan A Bassig ◽  
Simin Liu ◽  
Stephen Buka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Kidney Cancer ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Cancer Subtypes ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Incident Cases

Abstract Background We previously observed a rapid increase in the incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in men and women between 1935 and 1989 in the USA, using data from the Connecticut Tumor Registry. This increase appeared to be largely explained by a positive cohort effect, but no population-based study has been conducted to comprehensively examine age-period-cohort effects by histologic types for the past decade. Methods We calculated age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates of the two major kidney-cancer subtypes RCC and renal urothelial carcinoma, and conducted an age-period-cohort analysis of 114 138 incident cases of kidney cancer reported between 1992 and 2014 to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results programme. Results The age-adjusted incidence rates of RCC have been increasing consistently in the USA among both men and women (from 12.18/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 18.35/100 000 in 2010–2014 among men; from 5.77/100 000 in 1992–1994 to 8.63/100 000 in 2010–2014 among women). Incidence rates generally increased in successive birth cohorts, with a continuing increase in rates among the younger age groups (ages 0–54 years) in both men and women and among both Whites and Blacks. These observations were confirmed by age-period-cohort modelling, which suggested an increasing birth-cohort trend for RCC beginning with 1955 birth cohorts, regardless of the assumed value for the period effect for both men and women and for Whites and Blacks. Conclusions Known risk factors for kidney cancer may not fully account for the observed increasing rates or the birth-cohort pattern for RCC, prompting the need for additional etiologic hypotheses (such as environmental exposures) to investigate these descriptive patterns.

scholarly journals Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis in India over past three decades: A Joinpoint and Age-Period- Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Dhamnetiya ◽  
Priyanka Patel ◽  
Ravi Prakash Jha ◽  
Neha Shri ◽  
Mayank Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Tuberculosis Incidence ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality burden of tuberculosis has been a major public health challenge in India. Despite various commitments to end the global TB epidemic, India has the highest burden of TB and MDR-TB. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, it is imperative to outline the incidence and trend of tuberculosis in India. This study provides the trends in the burden of TB in India, along with age, period and cohort effect of TB. MethodsWe have extracted the TB incidence and mortality estimates from GBD database over the period 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to determine the magnitude of time trends in incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). We have analyzed the tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in India to distinguish age, period and cohort effects by using age-period-cohort (APC) model.ResultsThere has been a decline in age standardized incidence rate in the period 1990-2019. Results from the APC table showed that the incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis in India decreased with the recent cohort. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend in India in the period 1990-2019. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates of tuberculosis was found higher among males. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend. Findings show that incidence and mortality were higher in older ages. The cohort effect on the incidence of tuberculosis was found higher among 1990-94 birth cohorts than in the later birth cohorts 2010-14. Wald test results demonstrated that the cohort and period RRs for both sexes and the net drift and local drifts for tuberculosis incidence and mortality were statistically significant.ConclusionHigher incidence and mortality in the older age groups is attributed to poor nutrition and socio-economic status. Improvement in India’s public health facility and strategic programs aimed at eliminating tuberculosis might be the reason behind declining RRs in India. The decline in the cohort RRs signifies the effective measures taken to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in the country.

scholarly journals Age period cohort analysis of chewing ability in Korea from 2007 to 2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam-Hee Kim ◽  
Ichiro Kawachi
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
Period Effects ◽  
Chewing Ability ◽  
Main Variable ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThere have been marked improvements in oral health in Korea during the past 10 years, including chewing ability. We sought to disentangle age, period, and cohort effects in chewing ability between 2007 and 2018. We analyzed data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The main variable was chewing difficulty, which was assessed among participants aged 20 years and older. APC analysis revealed three trends in chewing difficulty: (1) there was an increase in chewing difficulty starting at around 60 years of age (age effect), (2) there was a steady decrease in chewing difficulty during the observation period (period effect), and (3) chewing ability improved with each successive generation born after 1951 (cohort effect). Regarding recent improvements in chewing ability, cohort effects were somewhat more important than period effects.

scholarly journals All-Cause and Cancer Mortality Trends in Macheng, China (1984–2013): An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2068
Author(s):  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Songbo Hu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Males And Females

The aim was to study the variation trends of all-cause and cancer mortality during 1984–2013 in Macheng City, China. The mortality data were collected from Macheng City disease surveillance points system and Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The model life table system was used to adjust mortality rates due to an under-reporting problem. An age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality for males and females. Age effect of all-cause mortality for both sexes increased with age, while the age effect of cancer mortality for both sexes reached a peak at the age group of 55–59 years old and then decreased. The relative risks (RRs) of all-cause mortality for males and females declined with the period and decreased by 51.13% and 63.27% during the whole study period, respectively. Furthermore, the period effect of cancer mortality in both sexes decreased at first and then increased. The cohort effect of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born after 1904 presented the pattern of “rise first and then fall,” and decreased by 82.18% and 90.77% from cohort 1904–1908 to 1989–1993, respectively; especially, the risk of all-cause and cancer mortality for both sexes born before 1949 was much higher than that for those born after 1949.

scholarly journals Melanoma Incidence Among Non-Hispanic Whites in All 50 US States From 2001 Through 2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 (5) ◽  
pp. 533-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron P Thrift ◽  
Franciska J Gudenkauf
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Sun Exposure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Percent Change ◽  
Melanoma Incidence

Abstract Background The United States has large regional variation in primary prevention campaigns for skin cancer. We collected data from all 50 states to examine changes in melanoma incidence and performed age-period-cohort analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence rates. Methods Annual melanoma incidence rates for non-Hispanic whites from 2001 to 2015 were extracted from the US Cancer Statistics registry. Secular trends were examined overall and by sex and state. We used joinpoint regression to compute annual percent change and average annual percent change and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We also analyzed incidence trends by 5-year age group and birth cohort using incidence rate ratios and age-period-cohort modeling. Results Melanoma incidence increased from 20.7 per 100 000 (95% CI = 20.5 to 20.9) in 2001 to 28.2 per 100 000 (95% CI = 28.0 to 28.5) in 2015, increasing by 3.90% (95% CI = 2.36% to 5.48%) annually between 2001 and 2005 and 1.68% (95% CI = 1.37% to 1.99%) annually from 2005 through 2015. The average annual percent change in melanoma incidence rates were similar for men (2.34%, 95% CI = 1.91 to 2.78) and women (2.25%, 95% CI = 1.60 to 2.91). Age-specific relative risk by birth cohort increased from circa 1921 to 1981 before decreasing. Compared with adults born circa 1956, those born circa 1991 had lower melanoma risk (incidence rate ratio  = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.77 to 0.94). Geographic variation was observed; some states still have melanoma rates trending upwards in all birth cohorts. Conclusions The continued increase in melanoma incidence among non-Hispanic whites, particularly in states where rates continue to rise among recent and current birth cohorts, underscores the need for increased public health campaigns aimed at reducing sun exposure.

scholarly journals Suicide Mortality in Canada and Quebec, 1926-2008: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Thibodeau
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Suicide Rates

Suicide rates raise with age has remained consistent for more than 150 years but over the last 50 years major changes occurred. We examined Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects on suicide mortality rate by gender in Canada and in Quebec from 1926 to 2008. Durkheim theoretical framework is used to interpret our findings. Descriptive analysis and APC models relating to the Intrinsic Estimator (IE) were used to assess these effects. IE model shows suicide net age effect for men in Canada and Quebec as death rate increased until 25 years old before reaching a plateau. For women it’s an inverted "U" shape peaking at mid-adulthood. While period effect differs, a net cohort effect is found for men born in 1941, and women in 1981 until most recent cohorts. 

scholarly journals Sidedness Determines Clinical Characteristics and Survival Outcomes in Medullary Adenocarcinoma of the Colon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Blakely ◽  
Rebecca A. Nelson ◽  
Stanley A. Hamilton ◽  
Lily L. Lai
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Colon Adenocarcinoma ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Disease Stage ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Histologic Subtype ◽  
Molecular Features ◽  
Adjusted Incidence

Abstract Background: Colon medullary adenocarcinoma (MAC) is a rare histologic subtype. Clinical presentation and cancer outcomes of MAC, compared to colon adenocarcinoma (AC), remain incompletely described.Methods: Annual age-adjusted incidence rates were computed using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (2002–2017). A cohort analysis using the National Cancer Database (2010–2016) compared patient characteristics in an unmatched dataset and prognostic characteristics in a 1:1 matched subset. Results: Reported annual age-adjusted incidence of MAC has significantly increased, with an average annual percent change (APC) increase of 23.8% (95% CI: 19.2–28.6); concurrent AC incidence declined (APC: -2.8, 95% CI: -3.1– -2.8). Analyses of 1,018 MAC and 210,784 AC unmatched patients showed that MAC patients were more often older, female, and white, with higher disease stage, poorly-differentiated tumors, right-sided laterality, and lymphovascular invasion (all p<0.0001). Among those with known microsatellite status, instability was more prevalent among MAC than AC patients (82% vs. 24%, p<0.0001). Multivariate analyses of the matched dataset revealed that MAC histology was not independently associated with overall survival. However, when stratifying by laterality, left-sided MAC was associated with shorter survival when compared to right-sided MAC (HR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.13–2.32) and right-sided AC (HR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.12–2.11).Conclusions: The reported incidence of MAC is increasing, in contrast to the declining incidence of AC. MAC clinical and molecular features are distinct from AC and likely account for outcome differences. Overall, left-sided MAC was associated with the shortest OS. Molecular profiling may improve treatment guidelines for MAC.

scholarly journals Trend Dynamics of Thyroid Cancer Incidence among China and the U.S. Adult Population from 1992-2017: A Join-point and Age-Period-Cohort

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiran Yi Cui ◽  
Sumaira Mubarik ◽  
Jia Rui Li ◽  
Nawsherwan ◽  
Chuanhua Chuan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Ionizing Radiation ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Join Point ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Purpose: Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1992 to 2017.Patients and methods: We examined the trends of TC incidence in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates was estimated by Join-point regression analysis.Results: TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1992-2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S.Conclusion: From 1992 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

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