scholarly journals Preoperative Risk-Stratification of Pediatric Malignant Brainstem Glioma based on a validated nomogram: A SEER based Analysis

Author(s):  
wenqiang Che ◽  
Jun Lyu ◽  
Chengzhuo Li ◽  
Xiangyu Wang

Abstract Purpose: Pediatric patients diagnosed with brainstem malignant gliomas (BSMGs) have a poor prognosis. Our study aimed to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict the cancer‐specific survival preoperatively (CSS) rates and then a risk-stratification given to these patients.Methods: From 1998 to 2016, we extracted patients' data from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 1160 patients were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validating groups. Subsequently, the Cox regression analysis was used to screen variables. Then, the nomogram was constructed. Lastly, we calculated C-indexes and plotted calibration curves and the utility of decision curve analyses (DCAs) to assess our survival model's benefits.Result: Here, after multivariate cox regression analysis, we established four variables for constructing nomogram for CSS rates. Subsequently, the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curves were used to confirm the nomogram's good performance. DCAs of the nomogram indicated that both groups obtained good 1-, 3-, and 5-year net benefits. Conclusion: The nomogram model for preoperatively predicting CSS provided a convenient and practical tool to assess pediatric patients' prognosis with BSMG.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
wenqiang Che ◽  
Jun Lyu ◽  
Chengzhuo Li ◽  
Xiangyu Wang

Abstract Purpose: Pediatric patients diagnosed with brainstem malignant gliomas (BSMGs) have a poor prognosis. Our study aimed to construct and validate a prognostic nomogram to preoperatively predict the cancer‐specific survival (CSS) rates in these patients.Methods: From 1998 to 2016, we extracted patients' data from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. A total of 1160 patients were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validating groups. Subsequently, the Cox regression analysis was used to screen variables. Then, the nomogram was constructed. Lastly, we calculated C-indexes and plotted calibration curves and the utility of decision curve analyses (DCAs) to assess our survival model's benefits.Result: Here, after multivariate cox regression analysis, we established four variables for constructing nomogram for CSS rates. Subsequently, the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curves were used to confirm the nomogram's good performance. DCAs of the nomogram indicated that both groups obtained good 1-, 3-, and 5-year net benefits. Conclusion: The nomogram model for preoperatively predicting CSS provided a convenient and practical tool to assess pediatric patients' prognosis with BSMG.


Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Krau ◽  
Sandra Freitag-Wolf ◽  
Doreen Brehm ◽  
Rainer Petzina ◽  
Georg Lutter ◽  
...  

Background: GDF15 belongs to the transforming growth factor superfamily and has a significant role in regulating inflammatory and apoptotic pathways. GDF15 is an emerging biomarker for risk stratification in cardiovascular disease. Here we analyze its prognostic value in patients with severe symptomatic aortic valve stenosis undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Methods and Results: We prospectively enrolled 217 patients undergoing TAVI (using Edwards Sapien XT prostheses) at our institution over a continuous period of 35 month (2/2011-12/2013). All patients were available for complete follow up. Clinical parameters were determined before the procedure, biomarkers (GDF15 & NTproBNP) were measured before, 3 and 7 days after TAVI. The primary endpoint was survival time, all available prognostic factors were studied by Cox regression analysis with backward selection based on the likelihood ratio criteria. At median follow-up of 349 d (Q1-Q3 106-660d), a total of n=66 deaths occurred. 30d mortality was 6.9%. Mean age was 81.8 years (± 6.0 y) and 55.8% were females. Mean log. Euroscore (ES) was 25.4% (± 17.2%). Median preprocedural GDF15 values were 2256 pg/ml (Q1-Q3 1585.5-3082.0). In univariate analyses, increased GDF15 levels (upper quartile compared to lower three quartiles) revealed a HR of 2.4 (CI 1.5-3.9, p<0.001) for adverse outcome. In addition, also log. ES (p= 0.001), log. ES II (p=0.018), STS-Score (p=0.019), NTproBNP (p=0.037) and atrial fibrillation (p=0.02) demonstrated statistical significance for negative outcome. A multivariate Cox regression analysis including these factors and postprocedural aortic regurgitation, demonstrated that elevated GDF15 had a HR of 2.104 (CI 1.3-3.5; p=0.003) for negative outcome in patients undergoing TAVI, while elevated NTproBNP had HR of 1.412 (CI 0.8-2.4; p=0.212). Moreover, this analysis also revealed the log. ES as an independent risk factor (HR of 2.211, CI 1.3-3.7; p= 0.002). Conclusion: Increased GDF15 levels are associated with a poor prognosis in patients undergoing TAVI. Furthermore, GDF15 showed to be superior to the established biomarker NTproBNP in risk stratification of patients undergoing TAVI providing additional prognostic information.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 429-429
Author(s):  
Shingo Hatakeyama ◽  
Yuka Kubota ◽  
Hayato Yamamoto ◽  
Takahiro Yoneyama ◽  
Yasuhiro Hashimoto ◽  
...  

429 Background: The clinical impact of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) on oncological outcomes in patients with locally advanced upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) remains unclear. We investigated the oncological outcomes of platinum-based NAC for locally advanced UTUC. Methods: A total of 426 patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy at five medical centers between January 1995 and April 2017 were examined retrospectively. Of the 426 patients, 234 were treated for a high-risk disease (stages cT3–4 or locally advanced [cN+] disease) with or without NAC. NAC regimens were selected based on eligibility of cisplatin. We retrospectively evaluated post-therapy pathological downstaging, lymphovascular invasion, and prognosis stratified by NAC use. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed for independent factors for prognosis. Results: Of 234 patients, 101 received NAC (NAC group) and 133 did not (Control [Ctrl] group). The regimens in the NAC group included gemcitabine and carboplatin (75%), and gemcitabine and cisplatin (21%). Pathological downstagings of the primary tumor and lymphovascular invasion were significantly improved in the NAC than in the Ctrl groups. NAC for locally advanced UTUC significantly prolonged recurrence-free and cancer-specific survival. Multivariate Cox regression analysis using an inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) method showed that NAC was selected as an independent predictor for prolonged recurrence-free and cancer-specific survival. However, the influence of NAC on overall survival was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Platinum-based NAC for locally advanced UTUC potentially improves oncological outcomes. Further prospective studies are needed to clarify the clinical benefit of NAC for locally advanced UTUC.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingyue Zhang ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Yajun Shi ◽  
Wei Dong ◽  
Yang Mu ◽  
...  

Background: Heart failure (HF) is considered one of the most common complications of coronary heart disease (CHD), with a higher incidence of readmission and mortality. Thus, exploring the risk factors related to the prognosis is necessary. Moreover, the effect of the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) on HF patients with revascularized CHD is still unclear. Thus, we aimed to assess the influence of WHR on the prognosis of HF patients with revascularized CHD.Methods: We collected data of HF patients with revascularized CHD who were referred to the Cardiac Rehabilitation Clinic of PLA Hospital from June 30, 2015, to June 30, 2019. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between WHR and prognosis of HF patients with revascularized CHD. Patients were divided into higher and lower WHR groups based on the cutoff WHR value calculated by the X-tile software. Cox regression analysis was used to analysis the two groups. We drew the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of WHR and analyzed the differences between the two groups. Endpoints were defined as major adverse cardiac events (MACE) (including all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, unscheduled revascularization, and stroke).Results: During the median follow-up of 39 months and maximum follow-up of 54 months, 109 patients were enrolled, of which 91.7% were males, and the mean age was 56.0 ± 10.4 years. WHR was associated with the incidence of MACE in the Cox regression analysis (p = 0.001); an increase in WHR of 0.01 unit had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.134 (95%CI: 1.057–1.216). The WHR cutoff value was 0.93. Patients in the higher WHR group had a significantly higher risk of MACE than those in the lower WHR group (HR = 7.037, 95%CI: 1.758–28.168). The ROC area under the curve was 0.733 at 4 years. Patients in the higher WHR group had a higher body mass index (BMI; 26.7 ± 3.5 vs. 25.4 ± 2.4, P = 0.033) than patients in the lower WHR group.Conclusions: WHR is an independent risk factor of the long-term prognosis of Chinese HF patients with revascularized CHD. Patients with WHR ≥ 0.93 require intensified treatment. Higher WHR is related to higher BMI and ΔVO2/ΔWR.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangkun Wu ◽  
Wenjie Li ◽  
Daojun Lv ◽  
Yongda Liu ◽  
Di Gu

Abstract Background : Biochemical recurrence (BCR) is considered as an indicator for prostate cancer (PCa)-specific recurrence and mortality. However, lack of effective prediction model to assess the prognosis of patients for optimization of treatment. The aim of this work was to construct a protein-based nomogram that could predict BCR for PCa.Materials and methods: Univariate Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify candidate proteins from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. LASSO Cox regression was further conducted to pick out the most significant prognostic proteins and formulate the proteins signature for predicting BCR. Additionally, a nomogram was constructed by multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression.Results: We established a 5‐protein-based signature which was well used to identify PCa patients into high‐ and low‐risk groups. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated patients with higher BCR generally had significantly worse survival than those with lower BCR (p<0.0001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve expounded that ours signature had excellent prognostic efficiency for 1‐, 3‐ and 5‐year BCR (area under curve in training set: 0.691, 0.797, 0.808 and 0.74, 0.739, 0.82 in the test set). Univariable and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that this 5‐protein signature was an independent of several clinical signatures including age, Gleason score, T stage, N status, PSA and residual tumor. Moreover, a nomogram was constructed and calibration plots confirmed the its predictive value in 3-, 5- and 10-year BCR overall survival.Conclusion: Our study identified a 5-protein-based signature and constructed a prognostic nomogram that reliably predicts BCR in prostate cancer. The findings might be of paramount importance in tumor prognosis and medical decision-making.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunlei Wu ◽  
Quanteng Hu ◽  
Dehua Ma

Abstract Background Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the main pathological subtype of Non-small cell lung cancer. The aim of this study was to establish an immune-related gene pairs (IRGPs) signature for predicting the prognosis of LUAD patients.Methods We downloaded the gene expression profile and immune-related gene set from TCGA and ImmPort database, respectively, to establish IRGPs. Then, IRGPs subjected to univariate Cox regression analysis, LASSO regression analysis and multivariable Cox regression analysis to screen and develop a IRGPs signature. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was applied for evaluating the predicting accuracy of this signature by calculating the area under ROC (AUC) and data from GEO was used to validate this signature.Results A IRGPs signature with 8 IRGPs was constructed. The AUC for 1- and 3-year overall survival in TCGA set was 0.867 and 0.870, respectively. Similar result was observed in the AUC of GEO set and Total set (GEO set [1-year: 0.819; 3-years: 0.803]; Total set [1-year: 0.845; 3-years: 0.801]). Survival analysis of three sets demonstrated high-risk LUAD patients exhibited poorer prognosis. The multivariable Cox regression indicated that risk score was independent prognostic factors.Conclusions We developed a novel IRGPs signature for predicting prognosis of LUAD.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 431-439
Author(s):  
Omar Abdel-Rahman

Aim: To evaluate the impact of cytoreductive surgery on the outcomes of patients with metastatic appendiceal carcinoma. Methods: Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was accessed and patients with metastatic appendiceal carcinoma diagnosed (2010–2015) were reviewed. Kaplan–Meier survival estimates/log-rank testing were then used to assess overall survival outcomes according to cytoreductive surgery. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was then used to evaluate factors affecting cancer-specific survival. Factors included in this model were age, race, sex, stage and histology and cytoreductive surgery. Results: A total of 1339 patients with metastatic appendiceal carcinoma were included in the current study. Using Kaplan–Meier survival estimates to evaluate overall survival, patients with surgery for metastatic disease have better overall survival compared with patients without surgery for metastatic disease (p < 0.001). Stratifying survival analysis according to histology, the overall survival benefit from surgery for the metastases seems to be limited to patients with mucinous adenocarcinoma (p = 0.002) rather than patients with nonmucinous adenocarcinoma (p = 0.401). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was then conducted to evaluate factors predicting cancer-specific survival. The following factors were associated with worse cancer-specific survival: African-American race (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.356; 95% CI: 1.036–1.774; p = 0.026), more advanced stage (HR: 3.910; 95% CI: 2.735–5.588; p < 0.001), nonmucinous adenocarcinoma (HR for signet ring carcinoma vs mucinous adenocarcinoma: 2.119; 95% CI: 1.674–2.683; p < 0.001) and no surgical resection of metastatic disease (HR: 1.273; 95% CI: 1.067–1.519; p < 0.001). Conclusion: The current study suggests that among patients with metastatic appendiceal carcinoma, surgical cytoreduction of metastatic disease is associated with improved outcomes for patients with mucinous adenocarcinoma but not in patients with nonmucinous adenocarcinoma.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 1014-1014
Author(s):  
Emily Riehm Meier ◽  
Elizabeth C. Wright ◽  
Naomi L.C. Luban ◽  
Jeffery L. Miller

Abstract Abstract 1014 All sickle cell anemia patients (HbSS, SCA) have the same genetic mutation, but the clinical phenotype is highly variable and difficult to predict prior to the onset of disease complications. If severe SCA could be predicted early in life, then disease modifying therapies could be instituted prior to the onset of organ damage. To determine if reticulocyte levels in SCA patients are useful in disease severity prediction, a convenience sample of 50 children with SCA was enrolled in an observational study. After consent and assent were obtained, discarded peripheral blood obtained during routine clinic visits was collected and analyzed within 48 hours of collection and storage at 4°C. Hematologic data, including absolute reticulocyte counts (ARC), was collected using a Sysmex Hematology Analyzer. Clinical events were examined prospectively from the time of enrollment and retrospectively if the patient had events prior to study enrollment. Clinical events included: painful crises requiring hospital admission (VOC), acute chest syndrome, and splenic sequestration that occurred prior to the onset of chronic therapy. ARC and hematologic data were collected over time and analyzed using Cox regression analysis to determine the relationship between ARC levels and time to the first event. To evaluate the utility of ARC in risk stratification, patients were divided into two groups: ARC less than 200K/uL (ARC<200) and ARC greater than or equal to 200K/uL (ARC≥200). Initial analyses were performed using steady state ARCs prior to the first clinical event (pre-event baseline ARC). Steady state was defined as a sample collected at least 30 days from an acute illness and at least 60 days since the patient received a blood transfusion. Patients were followed an average of 6.7 years (range 0.82–16.8 years), which provides 332 person years of follow-up. A time dependent Cox regression analysis of pre-event baseline ARC≥200 compared with ARC<200 over the first 3 years of life generated a hazard ratio of having a first clinical event of 4.7 [95%CI 1.83–12.29 (p=0.0013)]. Maximum ARC before age 6 months (defined as the infant baseline ARC) was utilized for additional analyses. Cox regression analysis revealed that those subjects with an infant baseline ARC≥200 had 3.2 times the risk of having an event within the first 3 years of life than the group with an infant baseline ARC<200 (HR 3.15, 95%CI 1.54–6.45, p=0.0017). Forty-eight percent (12/25) of patients with an infant baseline ARC <200 had an event by age 3 years compared to 88% (22/25) of patients in the ARC≥200 group (p=0.001). The number of events per patient years was higher in the infant baseline ARC≥200 group (0.74 events/patient years of follow up vs. infant baseline ARC<200, 0.29 events/patient years of follow up, p=0.0004). The median time to first event in the infant baseline ARC≥200 group was shorter [1.39 years (95% CI 0.87–1.93)] than the baseline ARC<200 group [3.06 years (95%CI 1.71–3.80)]. These data suggest that both pre-event and infant baseline ARCs assist with risk stratification in infants and young children with SCA. Further studies are needed to determine if ARC risk stratification assessments are sufficiently robust for the guidance of treatment decisions for pediatric SCA. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baowei Ji ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Qiang Cai ◽  
Qiao Guo ◽  
Zhibiao Chen ◽  
...  

Background Glioma is the most common form of primary malignant intracranial tumor. Methods In the current study, miRNA matrix were obtained from the Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA), and then univariate Cox regression analysis and Lasso regression analysis were utilized to select candidate miRNAs and multivariate Cox regression analysis was applied to establish a miRNA signature for predicting overall survival (OS) of glioma. The signature was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and validated by data from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Results Eight miRNAs (miR-1246, miR-148a, miR-150, miR-196a, miR-338-3p, miR-342-5p, miR-548h and miR-645) were included in the miRNA signature. The AUC of ROC analysis for 1- and 3-year OS in the CGGA dataset was 0.747 and 0.905, respectively. In the GEO dataset, The AUC for 1- and 3-year was 0.736 and 0.809, respectively. The AUC in both the CGGA and GEO datasets was similar to that based on WHO 2007 classification (0.736 and 0.799) and WHO 2016 classification (0.663 and 0.807). Additionally, Kaplan–Meier plot revealed that high-risk score patients had a poorer clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that the miRNA signature was an independent prognosis-related factor [HR: 6.579, 95% CI [1.227−35.268], p = 0.028]. Conclusion On the whole, in the present study, based on eight miRNAs, a novel prognostic signature was developed for predicting the 1- and 3- year survival rate in glioma. The results may be conducive to predict the precise prognosis of glioma and to elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms. However, further experimental researches of miRNAs are needed to validate the findings of this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang Mook Kang ◽  
Jae Min Kim ◽  
Jin Hwan Cheong ◽  
Je Il Ryu ◽  
Yu Deok Won ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Disruption of the tumor-brain barrier in meningioma is a crucial factor in peritumoral brain edema (PTBE). We previously reported the possible effect of osteoporosis on the integrity of the arachnoid trabeculae because both the bone and the arachnoid trabeculae are composed of type 1 collagen. We hypothesized that osteoporotic conditions may be associated with PTBE occurrence after radiation treatment in patients with meningioma. Methods A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to identify the optimal cut-off values of mean skull Hounsfield unit for predicting osteopenia and osteoporosis in patients from our registry. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine whether possible osteoporosis independently predicted PTBE development in patients with meningioma after radiation. Results A total of 106 intracranial meningiomas were included for the study. All patients received linear accelerator-based radiation therapy in our hospital over an approximate 6-year period. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified that hypothetical osteoporosis was an independent predictive factor for the development of PTBE in patients with meningioma after linear accelerator-based radiation treatment (hazard ratio 5.20; 95% confidence interval 1.11–24.46; p = 0.037). Conclusions Our study suggests that possible osteoporotic conditions may affect PTBE development after linear accelerator-based radiation treatment for intracranial meningioma. However, due to the study’s small number of patients, these findings need to be validated in future studies with larger cohorts, before firm recommendations can be made. Graphic abstract


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