scholarly journals Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (CETA) At Risk Levels In Hydro-Meteorological Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zekai Sen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Restrictive Assumption ◽  
Monotonic Trend ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Serial Independence ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Trend Identification

Abstract Trend identification procedures are employed to determine the systematic monotonic trend lines in a given hydro-meteorological time series records for depiction of time dependent changes in the form of increase or decrease. Different methodologies are proposed for such identifications, but most of them require restrictive assumptions such as the normal (Gaussian) probability distribution, serial independence and long sample sizes. In order to relieve especially the serial independence requirement pre-whitening and over-whitening procedures are suggested, but they cannot render a serially dependent series into completely independent structure. In this paper, a new trend methodology is proposed on the basis of crossing features along any given straight-line within the given time series and the one with the maximum crossing number is the searched trend component. This approach does not require any restrictive assumption. Contrary to the previous trend algorithms, the suggested crossing empirical trend analysis (CETA) yields not a single trend, but a set of trends at different levels within the variation range of hydro-meteorological time series records. In this paper for the sake of brevity only three levels are considered at 10%, 50% and 90% risk levels. The comparison of the CETA approach is presented with the classical and frequently used method of Mann-Kendall (MK) trend identification procedure based on the Sen’s slope calculation. For small serial correlation coefficients and normal probability distribution (PDF) function cases CETA and classical technique yield almost the same trend line within +5% error band limits. The application of this methodology is presented for monthly and annual discharge records of Danube River and annual precipitation records from seven geographical regions of Turkey.

scholarly journals Over-whitening or Pre-whitening in Hydro-climatological Trend Analysis?

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zekai Sen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
White Noise ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Original Time Series ◽  
Trend Component ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
Original Time ◽  
Trend Identification

Abstract To meet the basic assumption of classical Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis, which requires serially independent time series, a pre-whitening (PW) procedure is proposed to alleviate the serial correlation structure of a given hydro-meteorological time series records for application. The procedure is simply to take the lagged differences in a given time series in the hope that the new time series will have an independent serial correlation coefficient. The whole idea was originally based on the first-order autoregressive AR (1) process, but such a procedure has been documented to damage the trend component in the original time series. On the other hand, the over-whitening procedure (OW) proposes a white noise process superposition of the same length with zero mean and some standard deviation on the original time series to convert it into serially independent series without any damage to the trend component. The stationary white noise addition does not have any trend components. For trend identification, annual average temperature records in New Jersey and Istanbul are presented to show the difference between PW and OW procedures. It turned out that the OW procedure was superior to the PW procedure, which did not cause a loss in the original trend component.

Temperature and Rainfall Partial Trends in Oxford, 1870-2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyüp Şişman ◽  
Burak KIZILÖZ
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Innovative Design ◽  
Monotonic Trend ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The Past ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Precipitation

Abstract In this study, the trends and stabilities of temperature and precipitation hydro-meteorology time series recorded since 1870 in Oxford city of England were analyzed in detail. The Innovative Triangular Trend Analysis (ITTA) method has been inspired to identify and analyze the trends and stabilities of the selected time series. To compare the results obtained by the above-mentioned method, the Classical Mann Kendall (MK) method has been applied to each series determined for ITTA design. Thanks to the innovative design of ITTA which is preferred by the Classic MK and Sen slope methods, the trends of time series could be analyzed in detail. In this study, the first draft structure has been improved with the help of ± 5-±10 % percentage change levels which were added to the ITTA method, and thus more objective evaluations about the trend magnitudes in time series is possible. For the same draft, the monotonic trend slopes which were found by the classical MK were also calculated through the Sen slope method. The data trends could explain in more detail with the help of the draft used in this study, compared to the studies in the literature. Climate change, which has been the most important factor in trend formation in recent years, has been taken into consideration while determining the design series. The thirty-year period up to 2019, a year in which the climate change was felt much more, constitutes the most important reference years for the analysis beginning from 1990, a year in which the climate change effects started to emerge. When the data trends of one hundred fifty years are examined for the different sub-time series, it is seen that the temperature increase in during1990-2019 period is much higher than the past hundred and twenty years, according to the analysis results. The highest average precipitation occurred in the 1990–2019 and 1900–1929 periods, and their amounts and patterns are nearly similar.

Time series trend analysis of rainfall in last five decades and its quantification in Aseer Region of Saudi Arabia

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Majed AlSubih ◽  
Madhuri Kumari ◽  
Javed Mallick ◽  
Raghu Ramakrishnan ◽  
Saiful Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Trend Analysis

scholarly journals Assessment of Rangeland Degradation in New Mexico Using Time Series Segmentation and Residual Trend Analysis (TSS-RESTREND)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1618
Author(s):  
Melakeneh G. Gedefaw ◽  
Hatim M. E. Geli ◽  
Temesgen Alemayehu Abera
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Rangeland Management ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Rangeland Degradation

Rangelands provide significant socioeconomic and environmental benefits to humans. However, climate variability and anthropogenic drivers can negatively impact rangeland productivity. The main goal of this study was to investigate structural and productivity changes in rangeland ecosystems in New Mexico (NM), in the southwestern United States of America during the 1984–2015 period. This goal was achieved by applying the time series segmented residual trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND) method, using datasets of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies and precipitation from Parameter elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and developing an assessment framework. The results indicated that about 17.6% and 12.8% of NM experienced a decrease and an increase in productivity, respectively. More than half of the state (55.6%) had insignificant change productivity, 10.8% was classified as indeterminant, and 3.2% was considered as agriculture. A decrease in productivity was observed in 2.2%, 4.5%, and 1.7% of NM’s grassland, shrubland, and ever green forest land cover classes, respectively. Significant decrease in productivity was observed in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants of NM while significant increase was observed in northwestern, southwestern, and a small portion of the southeastern quadrants. The timing of detected breakpoints coincided with some of NM’s drought events as indicated by the self-calibrated Palmar Drought Severity Index as their number increased since 2000s following a similar increase in drought severity. Some breakpoints were concurrent with some fire events. The combination of these two types of disturbances can partly explain the emergence of breakpoints with degradation in productivity. Using the breakpoint assessment framework developed in this study, the observed degradation based on the TSS-RESTREND showed only 55% agreement with the Rangeland Productivity Monitoring Service (RPMS) data. There was an agreement between the TSS-RESTREND and RPMS on the occurrence of significant degradation in productivity over the grasslands and shrublands within the Arizona/NM Tablelands and in the Chihuahua Desert ecoregions, respectively. This assessment of NM’s vegetation productivity is critical to support the decision-making process for rangeland management; address challenges related to the sustainability of forage supply and livestock production; conserve the biodiversity of rangelands ecosystems; and increase their resilience. Future analysis should consider the effects of rising temperatures and drought on rangeland degradation and productivity.

Seasonal trend analysis of image time series

2009 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 2721-2726 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ronald Eastman ◽  
Florencia Sangermano ◽  
Bardan Ghimire ◽  
Honglei Zhu ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Seasonal Trend

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal River Runoff by Using Innovative Trend Analysis with Significant Test

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Yilinuer Alifujiang ◽  
Jilili Abuduwaili ◽  
Yongxiao Ge
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Innovative Trend Analysis

This study investigated the temporal patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data at 13 hydrological stations in the Lake Issyk-Kul basin, Central Asia. The temporal trends were analyzed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with significance testing. The ITA method results were compared with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test at a 95% confidence level. The comparison results revealed that the ITA method could effectively identify the trends detected by the MK trend test. Specifically, the MK test found that the time series percentage decreased from 46.15% in the north to 25.64% in the south, while the ITA method revealed a similar rate of decrease, from 39.2% to 29.4%. According to the temporal distribution of the MK test, significantly increasing (decreasing) trends were observed in 5 (0), 6 (2), 4 (3), 8 (0), and 8 (1) time series in annual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter river runoff data. At the same time, the ITA method detected significant trends in 7 (1), 9 (3), 6(3), 9 (3), and 8 (2) time series in the study area. As for the ITA method, the “peak” values of 24 time series (26.97%) exhibited increasing patterns, 25 time series (28.09%) displayed increasing patterns for “low” values, and 40 time series (44.94%) showed increasing patterns for “medium” values. According to the “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values, five time series (33.33%), seven time series (46.67%), and three time series (20%) manifested decreasing trends, respectively. These results detailed the patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data series by evaluating “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values.

scholarly journals An External Agribusiness Risk Analysis Using KBDI: A Case of Veldfires in the Northern Territory of Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Toyi Maniki Diphagwe ◽  
Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele ◽  
Dibuseng Priscilla Mpakathi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Northern Territory ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
P Value

The 2019/20 Australian bushfires burned over 46 million acres of land, killed 34 people and left 3500 individuals homeless. Majority of deaths and buildings destroyed were in New South Wales, while the Northern Territory accounted for approximately 1/3 of the burned area. Many of the buildings that were lost were farm buildings, adding to the challenge of agricultural recovery that is already complex because of ash-covered farmland accompanied by historic levels of drought. The current research therefore aimed at characterising veldfire risk in the study area using Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). A 39-year-long time series data was obtained from an online NASA database. Both homogeneity and stationarity tests were deployed using a non-parametric Pettitt’s and Dicky-Fuller tests respectively for data quality checks. Major results revealed a non-significant two-tailed Mann Kendall trend test with a p-value = 0.789 > 0.05 significance level. A suitable probability distribution was fitted to the annual KBDI time series where both Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Chi-square tests revealed Gamma (1) as a suitably fitted probability distribution. Return level computation from the Gamma (1) distribution using XLSTAT computer software resulted in a cumulative 40-year return period of moderate to high fire risk potential. With this low probability and 40-year-long return level, the study found the area less prone to fire risks detrimental to animal and crop production. More agribusiness investments can safely be executed in the Northern Territory without high risk aversion.

scholarly journals Recurrence time distribution and temporal clustering properties of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events

2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1071-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Piegari ◽  
R. Di Maio ◽  
A. Avella
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Cellular Automaton ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Fano Factor ◽  
Recent Analysis ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Reasonable Prediction ◽  
First Time

Abstract. Reasonable prediction of landslide occurrences in a given area requires the choice of an appropriate probability distribution of recurrence time intervals. Although landslides are widespread and frequent in many parts of the world, complete databases of landslide occurrences over large periods are missing and often such natural disasters are treated as processes uncorrelated in time and, therefore, Poisson distributed. In this paper, we examine the recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model that reproduces well the actual frequency-size statistics of landslide catalogues. The complex time series are analysed by varying both the threshold above which the time between events is recorded and the values of the key model parameters. The synthetic recurrence time probability distribution is shown to be strongly dependent on the rate at which instability is approached, providing a smooth crossover from a power-law regime to a Weibull regime. Moreover, a Fano factor analysis shows a clear indication of different degrees of correlation in landslide time series. Such a finding supports, at least in part, a recent analysis performed for the first time of an historical landslide time series over a time window of fifty years.

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