scholarly journals Prognostic Nomograms based on Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Associated Factors for Predicting the Overall Survival of Colorectal Cancer Patients with Distant Metastases

Author(s):  
Hongmei Wang ◽  
Xuefeng Shan ◽  
min zhang ◽  
Kun Qian ◽  
Weiying Zhou

Abstract Background: To identify the heterogeneous and homogeneous prognostic factors associated with distant metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and then construct nomograms to predict prognosis.Methods: CRC patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016 were included. Cox regression was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate overall survival (OS). Predictive nomograms were constructed, and their performance was evaluated with C-indexes and calibration curves.Results: A total of 34933 patients with distant metastases were included. The median survival time of patients with liver metastases, lung metastases, bone metastases, and brain metastases were 12.00 months (95% CI: 11.71-12.29 months), 10.00 months (95% CI: 9.57-10.43 months), 5.00 months (95% CI: 4.47-5.53 months), and 3.00 months (95% CI: 2.31-3.70 months), respectively. Older age and no surgery were identified as homogeneous prognostic factors of the four types of metastases. Male sex, black race, unmarried status, uninsured status, primary CRC site, poor differentiation/grade, advanced N stage, T stage, high carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level and metastatic organ were heterogeneously associated with the prognosis of patients with distant metastases. The calibration curves and C-indexes exhibited good performance for predicting the OS of patients with distant metastases.Conclusion: CRC patients with distant metastases exhibited homogeneous and heterogeneous prognostic factors, all of which were associated with poor survival. The nomograms showed good accuracy and can be used as tools for clinicians to predict the prognosis of CRC patients with distant metastases.

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghao Cao ◽  
Shenghe Deng ◽  
Lizhao Yan ◽  
Junnan Gu ◽  
Jia Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Serum bilirubin and total bile acid (TBA) levels have been reported to be strongly associated with the risk and prognosis of certain cancers. Here, we aimed to investigate the effects of pretreatment levels of serum bilirubin and bile acids on the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods A retrospective cohort of 1474 patients with CRC who underwent surgical resection between January 2015 and December 2017 was included in the study. Survival analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of pretreatment levels of bilirubin and bile acids. X-Tile software was used to identify optimal cut-off values for total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL) and TBA in terms of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results DBIL, TBIL, and TBA were validated as significant prognostic factors by univariate Cox regression analysis for both 3-year OS and DFS. Multivariate Cox regression analyses confirmed that high DBIL, TBIL and TBA levels were independent prognostic factors for both OS (HR: 0.435, 95% CI: 0.299–0.637, P < 0.001; HR: 0.436, 95% CI: 0.329–0.578, P < 0.001; HR: 0.206, 95% CI: 0.124–0.341, P < 0.001, respectively) and DFS (HR: 0.583, 95% CI: 0.391–0.871, P = 0.008; HR:0.437,95% CI: 0.292–0.655, P <0.001; HR: 0.634, 95% CI: 0.465–0.865, P = 0.004, respectively). In addition, nomograms for OS and DFS were established according to all significant factors, and the c-indexes were 0.819 (95% CI: 0.806–0.832) and 0.835 (95% CI: 0.822–0.849), respectively. Conclusions TBIL, DBIL and TBA levels are independent prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients. The nomograms based on OS and DFS can be used as a practical model for evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.


2020 ◽  
Vol 477 (5) ◽  
pp. 705-715
Author(s):  
Ines Beilmann-Lehtonen ◽  
Camilla Böckelman ◽  
Harri Mustonen ◽  
Selja Koskensalo ◽  
Jaana Hagström ◽  
...  

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC), the second most common cancer globally, resulted in 881,000 deaths in 2018. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are crucial to detecting pathogen invasion and inducing the host’s immune response. This study aimed to explore the prognostic value of TLR2 and TLR4 tumor expressions in colorectal cancer patients. We studied the immunohistochemical expressions of TLR2 and TLR4 using tissue microarray specimens from 825 patients undergoing surgery in the Department of Surgery, Helsinki University Hospital, between 1982 and 2002. We assessed the relationships between TLR2 and TLR4 expressions and clinicopathological variables and patient survival. We generated survival curves using the Kaplan-Meier method, determining significance with the log-rank test. Among patients with lymph node–positive disease and no distant metastases (Dukes C), a strong TLR2 immunoactivity associated with a better prognosis (p < 0.001). Among patients with local Dukes B disease, a strong TLR4 immunoactivity associated with a worse disease-specific survival (DSS; p = 0.017). In the multivariate survival analysis, moderate TLR4 immunoactivity compared with strong TLR4 immunoactivity (hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49–0.89, p = 0.007) served as an independent prognostic factor. In the multivariate analysis for the Dukes subgroups, moderate TLR2 immunoactivity (HR 2.63, 95% CI 1.56–4.44, p < 0.001) compared with strong TLR2 immunoactivity served as an independent negative prognostic factor in the Dukes C subgroup. TLR2 and TLR4 might be new prognostic factors to indicate which CRC patients require adjuvant therapy and which could spare from an unnecessary follow-up, but further investigations are needed.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 1613-1613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Othus ◽  
Mikkael A Sekeres ◽  
Sucha Nand ◽  
Guillermo Garcia-Manero ◽  
Frederick R. Appelbaum ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: CR and CR with incomplete count recovery (CRi) are associated with prolonged overall survival (OS) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients (pts) treated with curative-intent, induction therapy. For AML pts treated with azacitidine (AZA), response (CR, partial response, marrow CR, or hematologic improvement) is also associated with prolonged OS. We evaluate whether patients given AZA for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) or AML had longer OS if they achieved CR. We also compare the effect size of CR on OS between AZA regimens and 7+3. Patients and Methods: We analyzed four SWOG studies: S1117 (n=277) was a randomized Phase II study comparing AZA to AZA+lenalidomide or AZA+vorinostat for higher-risk MDS and CMML pts (median age 70 years, range 28-93); S0703 (n=133) treated AML pts not eligible for curative-intent therapy with AZA+mylotarg (median age 73 years, range 60-88). We analyzed the 7+3 arms of S0106 (n=301 were randomized to 7+3, median age 48 years, range 18-60) and S1203 (n=261 were randomized to 7+3, median age 48 years, range 19-60). CR was defined per 2003 International Working Group criteria. In S1117 CR was assessed every 16 weeks and patients remained on therapy until disease progression. In S0703, S0106, and S1203 CR was assessed following 1-2 induction cycles; patients not achieving CR (S0106) or CRi (S0703 and S1203) were removed from protocol treatment. OS was measured from date of study registration. To avoid survival by response bias, we performed landmark analyses of OS. We present results based on the study-specific landmark date that 75% of pts who eventually achieved a CR had done so (S1117 144 days, S0703 42 days, S0106 44 days, S1203 34 days). Pts who did not achieve CR by this date were analyzed with pts who never achieved CR. Pts who died or were lost to follow-up before this date were excluded from analyses. As a sensitivity analysis we also analyzed based on the 90% date; results were not materially different. Log-rank tests were used to compare survival curves and Cox regression models were used for multivariable modeling including baseline prognostic factors age, sex, performance status, white blood cell count, platelet count, marrow blast percentage, de novo disease (versus antecedent MDS or therapy-related disease), study arm (for S1117 only), and cytogenetic risk (IPSS criteria for S1117, SWOG criteria for S0703, S0106, and S1203). The following analysis considers morphologic CR only. S0106 treated CR with incomplete count recover (CRi) pts as treatment failures (S0703 and S1203 did not) and CRi was not defined for S1117. Hematologic improvement was only defined for S1117 patients. Results: In univariate analysis, CR was significantly associated with prolonged survival among MDS pts treated with azactidine on S1117 (HR=0.55, p=0.017), confirming the results seen in AML pts treated with azacitidine (and mylotarg, S0703, HR=0.60, p=0.054) and 7+3 (S0106 HR=0.44, p<0.001; S1203 HR=0.32, p<0.0001) (Figure 1). For each study this relationship remained significant in multivariable analysis controlling for baseline prognostic factors (S1117 HR=0.25, p<0.001; S0703 HR=0.64, p=0.049; S0106 HR=0.45, p<0.001; S1203 HR=0.41, p<0.001). There was no evidence that the impact of CR varied across the four cohorts (interaction p-value = 0.76). In the full cohort, the effect of CR was associated with a HR of 0.45 (Table 1). Conclusion: Adjusting for pt characteristics, achievement of morphologic CR was associated with a 60% improvement in OS, on average, compared to that seen in pts who don't achieve a CR, regardless of whether pts were treated with 7+3 or AZA containing regimens, and suggesting that value CR is similar of whether pts receive more or less "intensive" therapy for these high grade neoplasms. Support: NIH/NCI grants CA180888 and CA180819 Acknowledgment: The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the important contributions of the late Dr. Stephen H. Petersdorf to SWOG and to study S0106. Figure 1 Kaplan-Meier plots of landmark survival by response. Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier plots of landmark survival by response. Table 1 Multivariable analysis, N=878 Table 1. Multivariable analysis, N=878 Disclosures Othus: Glycomimetics: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy. Sekeres:Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Erba:Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Seattle Genetics: Consultancy, Research Funding; Agios: Research Funding; Gylcomimetics: Other: DSMB; Juno: Research Funding; Daiichi Sankyo: Consultancy; Sunesis: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Ariad: Consultancy; Jannsen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Incyte: Consultancy, DSMB, Speakers Bureau; Celator: Research Funding; Astellas: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Novartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 380-380
Author(s):  
Daniele Raggi ◽  
Salvatore Lo Vullo ◽  
Patrizia Giannatempo ◽  
Daniele Giardiello ◽  
Nicola Nicolai ◽  
...  

380 Background: IRGCT comprises a consistent category of metastatic patients (pts), and information on the recommended management of these pts should be updated. Usually they enter clinical trials for poor prognosis GCT. We aimed to address the heterogeneity of this category and to identify clinical prognostic factors for sub-stratification of pts. Methods: Data on consecutive pts with IRGCT and who received treatment at Fondazione INT Milano in the time-frame 02/1980-03/2014 were collected. Cox regression analyses were done evaluating potential prognostic factors for overall survival (OS, primary endpoint) to first-line therapy. Each factor was evaluated in a multivariable model. An exploratory OS comparison between outlier groups was undertaken with Kaplan Meier curves and logrank test. Results: Data on 181 pts were collected. Median age was 27 yrs (IQR 22-32), 10 pts had a retroperitoneal (RP) primary, 6 had pure seminoma. 72 (39.8%) had lung metastases and 54 (32.3%) bulky (i.e. ≥10cm) RP lymph-nodes (LN). Pts received cisplatin, bleomycin and etoposide (PEB, n=156) or vinblastine (PVB, n=23), 2 other treatments. Median follow up was 173 months (IQR: 87-237). Globally, 5-y PFS and OS were 66.8% (95%CI: 60.1-74.2) and 83.3% (77.8-89.2). However, 5-y OS for pts with AFP 5,000-10,000 IU/ml (N=19) was 61.8% (95%CI: 43.0-88.7) while it was 89.1% (95%CI: 81.2-97.7) for nonseminomas with elevated LDH only (N=57) and similar for elevated HCG only (N=22); overall p<0.001. Multivariable analysis for OS is shown in the table (c-index= 0.63). Distribution of variables over time: bulky RP LN and elevated LDH were more frequent in earlier series (p=0.003 and 0.011). Conclusions: The prognostic heterogeneity of IRGCT category is a matter of fact and should be addressed by clinical trials. Pts with highly elevated AFP have an OS similar to poor prognostic category, while those categorized by elevated HCG or LDH only are close to good risk ones. [Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-269
Author(s):  
Jieyun Zhang ◽  
Yue Yang ◽  
Xiaojian Fu ◽  
Weijian Guo

Abstract Purpose Nomograms are intuitive tools for individualized cancer prognosis. We sought to develop a clinical nomogram for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with colorectal cancer. Methods Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 and those who underwent surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into the training (n = 119 797) and validation (n = 119 797) cohorts. Log-rank and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used in our analysis. To find out death from other cancer causes and non-cancer causes, a competing-risks model was used, based on which we integrated these significant prognostic factors into nomograms and subjected the nomograms to bootstrap internal validation and to external validation. Results The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year probabilities of overall survival in patients of colorectal cancer after surgery intervention were 83.04, 65.54, 54.79 and 38.62%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival was 87.36, 73.44, 66.22 and 59.11%, respectively. Nine independent prognostic factors for overall survival and nine independent prognostic factors for cancer specific survival were included to build the nomograms. Internal and external validation CI indexes of overall survival were 0.722 and 0.721, and those of cancer-specific survival were 0.765 and 0.766, which was satisfactory. Conclusions Nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Performance of the model was excellent. This practical prognostic model may help clinicians in decision-making and design of clinical studies.


2020 ◽  
pp. 030089162093079
Author(s):  
Marco Mammana ◽  
Francesca Bergamo ◽  
Letizia Procaccio ◽  
Marco Schiavon ◽  
Fotios Loupakis ◽  
...  

Introduction: This study was undertaken to review a single-institution cohort of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer undergoing lung resection after a multidisciplinary evaluation and to investigate the main prognostic factors for survival. Methods: Medical records of 129 patients undergoing lung metastasectomy for colorectal cancer with curative intent from 2001 to 2017 were reviewed. Tissue samples from the primary tumor were analyzed with a multiplex genotyping system for the detection of mutations in RAS and BRAF genes. Survival analyses were carried out by the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed using the log-rank test and the Cox regression model. Results: Postoperative morbidity and mortality were 13.2% and 0%, respectively. At a median follow-up time of 62.5 months, median overall survival was 90.5 months and median relapse-free survival was 42.8 months. Multivariable analysis for overall survival identified synchronous versus metachronous metastatic presentation as the only prognostic factor, whereas relapse-free survival was independently associated with synchronous versus metachronous metastatic presentation, number of metastases, and postoperative chemotherapy. Conclusions: This study shows particularly favorable survival outcomes for patients undergoing lung metastasectomy. The validity of some of the main prognostic factors was confirmed and a positive effect of postoperative chemotherapy on relapse-free survival was shown. Contrary to other reports, the presence of KRAS mutations was not associated with significant survival differences. Further studies are needed in order to clarify the interactions between molecular, clinical, and pathologic characteristics and treatment-related factors.


2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangke Li ◽  
Feng Wang ◽  
Yan Sun ◽  
Qingxia Fan ◽  
Guangfei Cui

Background Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are emerging as key molecules in human cancer. In the present study, we explored the role of the lncRNA PANDAR in colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods The relative expression level of lncRNA PANDAR in CRC tissues and cell lines was determined by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The associations between PANDAR expression and clinicopathological features of CRC patients were further analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to evaluate the value of PANDAR in the prognosis of CRC patients. Furthermore, the biological function of PANDAR on CRC cell growth, apoptosis and mobility was investigated through MTT, flow cytometry, transwell migration and invasion assays in vitro. Results The expression level of PANDAR was higher in CRC tissues and cells compared with adjacent nontumor tissues and normal colonic cell line NCM460. PANDAR expression was significantly correlated with local invasion, lymph node metastasis and TNM stage. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with high PANDAR expression had poorer overall survival than patients with low PANDAR expression. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that PANDAR might be an independent prognostic factor for CRC patients. Furthermore, PANDAR knockdown significantly inhibited cell proliferation, cycle progression, migration and invasion of CRC in vitro. Conclusions Our results suggest that high expression of PANDAR was involved in CRC progression and could act as an independent biomarker for prognosis of CRC patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Liu ◽  
Yao Xu ◽  
Guijun Xu ◽  
Vladimir P. Baklaushev ◽  
Vladimir P. Chekhonin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major cancer burden, and prognosis is determined by many demographic and clinicopathologic factors. The present study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer patients with distant metastasis. Methods Colorectal cancer patients with distant metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival, and validation was performed. Results A total of 7099 stage IV colorectal cancer patients were enrolled in the construction cohort. The median overall survival was 20.0 (95% CI 19.3–20.7) months. Age at diagnosis, marital status, race, primary tumour site, tumour grade, CEA level, T stage, N stage, presence of bone, brain, liver and lung metastasis, surgery for primary site and performance of chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram was constructed and the calibration curve showed satisfactory agreement. The C-index was 0.742 (95% CI 0.726–0.758). In the validation cohort (7098 patients), the nomogram showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration with a C-index of 0.746 (95% CI 0.730–0.762). Conclusion A series of factors associated with the survival of CRC patients with distant metastasis were found. Based on the identified factors, a nomogram was generated to predict the survival of stage IV colorectal cancer patients. The predictive model showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration, which can provide a reference for survival estimation and individualized treatment decisions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuetong Rong ◽  
Haiyi Liu ◽  
Hongmei Yu ◽  
Jian Zhao ◽  
Jie Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of apatinib combined with FOLFIRI in the first-line treatment of advanced metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and explore potential factors of efficacy. Methods: Twenty mCRC patients treated at Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from March 2017 to March 2019 were included according to the enrolment criteria. They provided informed consent and were treated with apatinib combined with FOLFIRI according to the scheduled regimen until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity occurred. The primary endpoint was OS. The secondary endpoints included PFS, ORR, DCRand safety. OS and PFS were calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate independent prognostic factors of OS and PFS. R was used to determine cut-off values for biochemical indicators. Forest maps were drawn for Cox univariate results and the relationships between NLR and ECOG, which were significant in univariate analysis, and OS were represented by Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The median OS and PFS were 16.135 months (95% CI: 9.211–22.929) and 6 months (95% CI: 5.425–6.525). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that NLR and CEA were independent prognostic factors. The most common grade 3–4 adverse events were hypertension, diarrhoea, increased alkaline phosphatase, decreased leukocytes and decreased neutrophils. Conclusion: Apatinib combined with FOLFIRI for the first-line treatment of advanced unresectable mCRC showed good efficacy and safety. The baseline NLR was predictive of efficacy, and a low baseline NLR (HR: 0.2895, P=0.0084) was associated with improved OS.


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