Ranking the explanatory power of factors associated with worldwide new Covid-19 cases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aristides Moustakas
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Variance Partitioning ◽  
Total Variance ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Governmental Intervention ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Disease spread is a complex phenomenon requiring an interdisciplinary approach. Covid-19 exhibited a global spatial spread in a very short time frame resulting in a global pandemic. Data of new Covid-19 cases per million were analysed worldwide at the spatial scale of a country and time replicated from the end of December 2019 to late May 2020. Data driven analysis of epidemiological, economic, public health, and governmental intervention variables was performed in order to select the optimal variables in explaining new Covid-19 cases across all countries in time. Sequentially, hierarchical variance partitioning of the optimal variables was performed in order to quantify the independent contribution of each variable in the total variance of new Covid-19 cases per million. Results indicated that from the variables available new tests per thousand explained the vast majority of the total variance in new cases (51.6%) followed by the governmental stringency index (15.2%). Availability of hospital beds per 100k inhabitants explained 9% extreme poverty explained 8.8%, hand washing facilities 5.3%, the fraction of the population aged 65 or older explained 3.9%, and other disease prevalence (cardiovascular diseases plus diabetes) explained 2.9%. The percentage of smokers within the population explained 2.6% of the total variance, while population density explained 0.6%.

scholarly journals Variation in human mobility and its impact on the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng-Chun Chang ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Yu-An Li ◽  
Cheng-Sheng Lee ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Intercity Travel ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. Methods In collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we characterized changes in movement patterns in Taiwan since February 2020, and built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data to identify the high risk areas of disease spread and assess the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. Results We found that mobility changed with the number of local cases in Taiwan in the past few months. For each city, we identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. We showed that the risk of an outbreak in Taiwan is enhanced if initial infections occur around holidays. Intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on the risk of an outbreak than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Conclusions To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook’s aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. We developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions and shows the spatial spread of the disease and the impact of intercity and intracity travel reduction under different initial conditions. Our results can be used readily if local transmission occurs in Taiwan after relaxation of border control, providing important insights into future disease surveillance and policies for travel restrictions.

scholarly journals Polyethylene Migration from Food Packaging on Cheese Detected by Raman and Infrared (ATR/FT-IR) Spectroscopy

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 3872
Author(s):  
Klytaimnistra Katsara ◽  
George Kenanakis ◽  
Zacharias Viskadourakis ◽  
Vassilis M. Papadakis
Keyword(s):  
Vibrational Spectroscopy ◽  
Food Packaging ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Low Density Polyethylene ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Ft Ir ◽  
Comparative Results ◽  
Short Time ◽  
And Storage ◽  
Ft Ir Spectroscopy

For multiple years, food packaging migration has been a major concern in food and health sciences. Plastics, such as polyethylene, are continuously utilized in food packaging for preservation and easy handling purposes during transportation and storage. In this work, three types of cheese, Edam, Kefalotyri and Parmesan, of different hardness were studied under two complementary vibrational spectroscopy methods, ATR-FTIR and Raman spectroscopy, to determine the migration of low-density polyethylene from plastic packaging to the surface of cheese samples. The experimental duration of this study was set to 28 days due to the degradation time of the selected cheese samples, which is clearly visible after 1 month in refrigerated conditions at 4 °C. Raman and ATR-FTIR measurements were performed at a 4–3–4–3 day pattern to obtain comparative results. Initially, consistency/repeatability measurement tests were performed on Day0 for each sample of all cheese specimens to understand if there is any overlap between the characteristic Raman and ATR-FTIR peaks of the cheese with the ones from the low-density polyethylene package. We provide evidence that on Day14, peaks of low-density polyethylene appeared due to polymeric migration in all three cheese types we tested. In all cheese samples, microbial outgrowth started to develop after Day21, as observed visually and under the bright-field microscope, causing peak reverse. Food packaging migration was validated using two different approaches of vibrational spectroscopy (Raman and FT-IR), revealing that cheese needs to be consumed within a short time frame in refrigerated conditions at 4 °C.

scholarly journals Breeding Strategies to Improve Miscanthus as a Sustainable Source of Biomass for Bioenergy and Biorenewable Products

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 673 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Clifton-Brown ◽  
Kai-Uwe Schwarz ◽  
Danny Awty-Carroll ◽  
Antonella Iurato ◽  
Heike Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Contribution ◽  
Perennial Grass ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Eastern Asia ◽  
Germplasm Collections ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Commercial Expansion

Miscanthus, a C4 perennial grass native to Eastern Asia, is being bred to provide biomass for bioenergy and biorenewable products. Commercial expansion with the clonal hybrid M. × giganteus is limited by low multiplication rates, high establishment costs and drought sensitivity. These limitations can be overcome by breeding more resilient Miscanthus hybrids propagated by seed. Naturally occurring fast growing indigenous Miscanthus species are found in diverse environments across Eastern Asia. The natural diversity provides for plant breeders, the genetic resources to improve yield, quality, and resilience for a wide range of climates and adverse abiotic stresses. The challenge for Miscanthus breeding is to harness the diversity through selections of outstanding wild types, parents, and progenies over a short time frame to deploy hybrids that make a significant contribution to a world less dependent on fossil resources. Here are described the strategies taken by the Miscanthus breeding programme at Aberystwyth, UK and its partners. The programme built up one of the largest Miscanthus germplasm collections outside Asia. We describe the initial strategies to exploit the available genetic diversity to develop varieties. We illustrate the success of combining diverse Miscanthus germplasm and the selection criteria applied across different environments to identify promising hybrids and to develop these into commercial varieties. We discuss the potential for molecular selections to streamline the breeding process.

scholarly journals Thoracic Surgery during Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Experience of a Level 1 Trauma Center

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Smelt ◽  
Gowthanan Santhirakumaran ◽  
Paul Vaughan ◽  
Ian Hunt ◽  
Carol Tan
Keyword(s):  
Thoracic Surgery ◽  
Trauma Center ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
World Health ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Trauma Service ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Level 1 Trauma Center

Abstract Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus primarily affecting the respiratory system, was initially diagnosed in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Identified as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization, the virus rapidly became a global pandemic. The effects on health care worldwide were unprecedented as countries adapted services to treat masses of critically ill patients.The aim of this study is to analyze the effect that the COVID-19 pandemic had on thoracic surgery at a major trauma center during peak prevalence. Methods Prospective unit data were collected for all patients who underwent thoracic surgery during March 2020 until May 2020 inclusive. Retrospective data were collected from an earlier comparable time period as a comparison. Results In the aforementioned time frame, 117 thoracic surgical operations were performed under the care of four thoracic surgeons. Six operations were performed on three patients who were being treated for SARS-CoV-2. One operation was performed on a patient who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2. There were no deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 in any patient undergoing thoracic surgery. Conclusion This study demonstrates that during the first surge of SARS-CoV-2, it was possible to adapt a thoracic oncology and trauma service without increase in mortality due to COVID-19. This was only possible due to a significant reduction in trauma referrals, cessation of benign and elective work, and the more stringent reprioritization of cancer surgery. This information is vital to learn from our experience and prepare for the predicted second surge and any similar future pandemics we might face.

Crossword Puzzles: Active Learning in Undergraduate Pathology and Medical Education

2009 ◽  
Vol 133 (9) ◽  
pp. 1457-1462
Author(s):  
Anurag Saxena ◽  
Raenelle Nesbitt ◽  
Punam Pahwa ◽  
Sheryl Mills
Keyword(s):  
Student Perceptions ◽  
Small Groups ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Teaching Tool ◽  
Internet Resource ◽  
Cooperative Groups ◽  
Key Concepts ◽  
Second Year ◽  
Peer Teachers ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Context.—Second-year medical students are introduced to many new terms and concepts in a short time frame in the hematology system and the neoplasia section of the undergraduate pathology course. It is a challenge to provide adequate practice and necessary repetition to reinforce key concepts. Objective.—To determine student perceptions of the usefulness of crosswords as a quick and effective way to reinforce essential concepts and vocabulary. Design.—Crosswords with ensured content validity built on a free Internet resource were completed by the students in collaborative and cooperative groups of 6 to 7 with a reward for the first group to successfully complete the puzzle. Student perceptions of the value of crosswords for their learning were examined in 2003 (39 students) with a survey of yes or no responses and in 2004 (41 students) with a survey using questions with a 5-point Likert scale. Results.—Many students (37 of 39 in 2003 and 24 of 41 in 2004) indicated that crosswords were useful and contributed to their learning. Specifically, crosswords were found to be useful for identifying key concepts and vocabulary and for their collaborative and competitive aspects. Written and informal comments indicated student enthusiasm for and a desire to participate in more of these exercises. Students have transferred this review strategy to other classes and the peer teachers have expressed an interest in it as an adjunct teaching tool. Conclusions.—The judicious use of crosswords was useful for near transfer content and provided an opportunity to discuss and recall essential concepts, think critically, and collaborate in small groups.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal patterns and progression of the Delta variant of COVID-19 and their health intervention linkages in Southeast Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Luo ◽  
Zhaoyin Liu ◽  
Yuxuan Zhou ◽  
Yumin Zhao ◽  
Yunyue Elita Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Public Health Strategies ◽  
Time Scan

The global pandemic of COVID-19 presented an unprecedented challenge to all countries in the world, among which Southeast Asia (SEA) countries managed to maintain and mitigate the first wave of COVID-19 in 2020. However, these countries were caught in the crisis after the Delta variant was introduced to SEA, though many countries had immediately implemented non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures along with vaccination in order to contain the disease spread. To investigate the potential linkages between epidemic dynamics and public health interventions, we adopted a prospective space-time scan method to conduct spatiotemporal analysis at the district level in the seven selected countries in SEA from June 2021 to October 2021. Results reveal the spatial and temporal propagation and progression of COVID-19 risks relative to public health measures implemented by different countries. Our research benefits continuous improvements of public health strategies in preventing and containing this pandemic.

scholarly journals Environmental and health impacts of spraying COVID-19 disinfectants with associated challenges

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakeel Ahmad Bhat ◽  
Farooq Sher ◽  
Rohitashw Kumar ◽  
Emina Karahmet ◽  
Syed Anam Ul Haq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Committee ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Secondary Products ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Specific Morphology ◽  
Application Techniques ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Chemical Usage

AbstractCoronavirus refers to a group of widespread viruses. The name refers to the specific morphology of these viruses because their spikes look like a crown under an electron microscope. The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that has been reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, was proclaimed an international public health emergency (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, and on 11 March 2020, it was declared as a pandemic (World Health Organization 2020). The official name of the virus was declared by the WHO as “COVID-19 virus”, formerly known as “2019-nCoV”, or “Wuhan Coronavirus”. The International Committee on Virus Taxonomy’s Coronavirus Research Group has identified that this virus is a form of coronavirus that caused a severe outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome in 2002–2003 (SARS). As a result, the latest severe acute respiratory syndrome has been classified as a corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pathogen by this committee. This disease spread quickly across the country and the world within the first 3 months of the outbreak and became a global pandemic. To stop COVID-19 from spreading, the governing agencies used various chemicals to disinfect different commercial spaces, streets and highways. However, people used it aggressively because of panic conditions, anxiety and unconsciousness, which can have a detrimental impact on human health and the environment. Our water bodies, soil and air have been polluted by disinfectants, forming secondary products that can be poisonous and mutagenic. In the prevention and spread of COVID-19, disinfection is crucial, but disinfection should be carried out with sufficient precautions to minimize exposure to harmful by-products. In addition, to prevent inhalation, adequate personal protective equipment should be worn and chemical usage, concentrations, ventilation in the room and application techniques should be carefully considered. In the USA, 60% of respondents said they cleaned or disinfected their homes more often than they had in the previous months. In addition to the robust use of disinfection approaches to combat COVID-19, we will explore safe preventative solutions here.

scholarly journals Case study: use of Rapid Ethnographic research for participatory urban design

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Design ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Ethnographic Research ◽  
City Center ◽  
Design Practices ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Historic City ◽  
Ways Of Life

This article analyzed the use of rapid ethnographic methodologies to assess community concerns for urban design practices. Rapid Ethnographic Assessment Process (REAP) is a compilation of methodologies that produce ethnographic knowledge in a short time frame and is constantly used for public health and sustainability. The article is about a participatory case-study conducted in the historic city center of Santiago de Los Caballeros, in the Dominican Republic. REAP was used to understand its application for urbanism. The case-study revealed a spectrum of cultures from different groups within the study area, and how the project would impact their ways of life. It also depicted a gap between the pre-existing proposals and the aims and challenges of the community groups. If appropriately applied, REAP can produce valuable results, and help inform urban design practices while assuring that they are respectful to the populations they will influence.

scholarly journals TOWARDS A MORE EFFICIENT DETECTION OF EARTHQUAKE INDUCED FAÇADE DAMAGES USING OBLIQUE UAV IMAGERY

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W6 ◽  
pp. 93-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Duarte ◽  
F. Nex ◽  
N. Kerle ◽  
G. Vosselman
Keyword(s):  
Damage Detection ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Image Features ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
Urban Search And Rescue ◽  
Damage Classification ◽  
Efficient Detection ◽  
Oblique Images ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The City

Urban search and rescue (USaR) teams require a fast and thorough building damage assessment, to focus their rescue efforts accordingly. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) are able to capture relevant data in a short time frame and survey otherwise inaccessible areas after a disaster, and have thus been identified as useful when coupled with RGB cameras for façade damage detection. Existing literature focuses on the extraction of 3D and/or image features as cues for damage. However, little attention has been given to the efficiency of the proposed methods which hinders its use in an urban search and rescue context. The framework proposed in this paper aims at a more efficient façade damage detection using UAV multi-view imagery. This was achieved directing all damage classification computations only to the image regions containing the façades, hence discarding the irrelevant areas of the acquired images and consequently reducing the time needed for such task. To accomplish this, a three-step approach is proposed: i) building extraction from the sparse point cloud computed from the nadir images collected in an initial flight; ii) use of the latter as proxy for façade location in the oblique images captured in subsequent flights, and iii) selection of the façade image regions to be fed to a damage classification routine. The results show that the proposed framework successfully reduces the extracted façade image regions to be assessed for damage 6 fold, hence increasing the efficiency of subsequent damage detection routines. The framework was tested on a set of UAV multi-view images over a neighborhood of the city of L’Aquila, Italy, affected in 2009 by an earthquake.

scholarly journals LIMITATIONS OF THE PANEL REGRESSION MODEL APPLICATION: THE EXAMPLE OF THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (32) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanko Stanić ◽  
Bojan Baškot
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Time Dimension ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Short Time Series ◽  
Western Balkan Region ◽  
Balkan Region ◽  
Short Time

Panel regression model may seem like an appealing solution in conditions of limited time series. This is often used as a shortcut to achieve deeper data set by setting several individual cases on the same time dimension, where cross units visually but not really multiply a time frame. Macroeconometrics of the Western Balkan region assumes short time series issue. Additionally, the structural brakes are numerous. Panel regression may seem like a solution, but there are some limitations that should be considered.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document