scholarly journals Estimating the number of COVID-19 cases from population isolation level

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano Holanda
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Population Isolation ◽  
Previous Period ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Two Stages

Abstract We use the logistic function to estimate the number of individuals infected by a virus in a period of time as a function of social isolation level in the previous period of the infection occurrences. Each period is composed by a fixed date range in days which the social isolation is supposed to take effect over the virus spread in the next date range. The sample is the COVID-19 cases and social isolation level data from São Paulo State, Brazil. The proposed method is divided into two stages: 1) The logistic function is fitted against COVID-19 empirical data to obtain the function parameters; 2) the function parameters, except for the overall growth rate, and the mean of social isolation level for all periods of time are used to calculate a constant. The logistic growth rate for each period of time is calculated using the constant and the isolation level for that period. The number of cases in a period is estimated using the logistic function and the growth rate from previous period of time to obtain the effect of social isolation during the elapsed time. The period of time that produces a better correlation between empirical and estimated data was 5 days. We conclude the method performs a data estimation with high correlation with the empirical data.

scholarly journals Standard and anomalous second waves in the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovani L. Vasconcelos ◽  
Arthur A. Brum ◽  
Francisco A. G. Almeida ◽  
Antônio M. S. Macêdo ◽  
Gerson C. Duarte-Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Excellent Agreement ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Logistic Growth Model ◽  
Second Wave

ABSTRACTWe apply a generalised logistic growth model, with time dependent parameters, to describe the fatality curves of the COVID-19 disease for several countries that exhibit a second wave of infections. The model parameters vary as a function of time according to a logistic function, whose two extreme values, i.e., for early and late times, characterise the first and second waves, respectively. We show that the theoretical curves are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for all cases considered. The model also allows for predictions about the time of occurrence and relative severity of the second wave, in comparison to the first wave. It is shown furthermore that the COVID-19 second waves can be generically classified in two main types, namely, standard and anomalous second waves, according as to whether the second wave starts well after or still during the first wave, respectively. We have also observed that the standard second waves tend, in their majority, to be more severe than the corresponding first wave, whereas for anomalous second waves the opposite occurs.

scholarly journals Dynamical system of the growth of COVID-19 with controller

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabha W. Ibrahim ◽  
Dania Altulea ◽  
Rafida M. Elobaid
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Dynamic System ◽  
Unique Solution ◽  
Population Dynamic ◽  
Integral Control ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Separation ◽  
Strong Control

AbstractRecently, various studied were presented to describe the population dynamic of covid-19. In this effort, we aim to introduce a different vitalization of the growth by using a controller term. Our method is based on the concept of conformable calculus, which involves this term. We investigate a system of coupled differential equations, which contains the dynamics of the diffusion among infected and asymptomatic characters. Strong control is considered due to the social separation. The result is consequently associated with a macroscopic law for the population. This dynamic system is useful to recognize the behavior of the growth rate of the infection and to confirm if its control is correctly functioning. A unique solution is studied under self-mapping properties. The periodicity of the solution is examined by using integral control and the optimal control is discussed in the sequel.

A serious game to support learning and minimize the social isolation of children with autism

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dantas Silva ◽  
F. M. Mendes Neto ◽  
R. M. de Lima ◽  
A. F. Sousa Neto ◽  
R. V. Santos Júnior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Isolation ◽  
Children With Autism ◽  
Serious Game ◽  
The Social

scholarly journals Historical Mob Violence and the 2016 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
Vol 694 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-188
Author(s):  
Rebecca Abbott ◽  
Amy Kate Bailey
Keyword(s):  
Black People ◽  
Mob Violence ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Southern States ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
White Voters

As a 2016 presidential candidate, Donald J. Trump invoked racially charged rhetoric to galvanize conservative white voters who felt left behind in the “new economy.” In this article, we ask whether Trump’s ability to attract electoral support in that way was linked to local histories of racist mob violence. We use county-level data on threatened and completed lynchings of Black people to predict support for Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary and general election across eleven southern states. We find that fewer voters cast their ballots for Trump in counties that had suppressed a comparatively larger share of potentially lethal episodes of racist mob violence. Supplementary analyses suggest that counties’ histories of violence are also related to their electoral support for Republican presidential candidates more broadly. We posit that this correlation points to the durable effects of racist violence on local cultures and the imprint of community histories on the social environment.

Wittgenstein’s philosophy and action research

2003 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Shotter
Keyword(s):  
Action Research ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Scientific Method ◽  
Gain Control ◽  
Participatory Culture ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Making Sense ◽  
The Social ◽  
Professional Research ◽  
The Many

Three themes seem to be common to both Greenwood’s and Gustavsen’s accounts: One is the social isolation of professional [research] elites from the concerns of ordinary people, which connects with another: the privileging of theory over practice. Both of these are connected, however, with a third: the great, unresolved struggle of ordinary people to gain control over their own lives, to escape from schemes imposed on them by powerful elites, and to build a genuinely participatory culture. An understanding of Wittgenstein’s later philosophy, and the recognition of its striking differences from any previous philosophical works, can make some important contributions to all these issues. Wittgenstein’s aim is not, by the use of reason and argument, to establish any foundational principles to do with the nature of knowledge, perception, the structure of our world, scientific method, etc. Instead, he is concerned to inquire into the actual ways available to us of possibly making sense in the many different practical activities we share in our everyday lives together: “We are not seeking to discover anything entirely new, only what is already in plain view.”

Antecedents of growth-oriented entrepreneurship before and during the Greek economic crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 528-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Giotopoulos ◽  
Alexandra Kontolaimou ◽  
Aggelos Tsakanikas
Keyword(s):  
Work Experience ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
New Ventures ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Before And After

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore potential drivers of high-growth intentions of early-stage entrepreneurs in Greece before and after the onset of the financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach To this end, the authors use individual-level data retrieved from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor annual surveys (2003-2015). Findings The results show that high-growth intentions of Greek entrepreneurs are driven by different factors in the crisis compared to the non-crisis period. Male entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs with significant work experience seem to be more likely to be engaged in growth-oriented new ventures during the crisis period. The same appears to hold for entrepreneurs who are motivated by an opportunity and also perceive future business opportunities in adverse economic conditions. On the other hand, the educational level and the social contacts of founders with other entrepreneurs are found to drive ambitious Greek entrepreneurship in the years before the crisis, while they were insignificant after the crisis outbreak. Originality/value Based on the concept of ambitious entrepreneurship, this study contributes to the literature by investigating the determinants of entrepreneurial high-growth expectations in the Greek context emphasizing the crisis period in comparison to the pre-crisis years.

How Relationship Satisfaction Influences Post-Pandemic COVID-19 Anxiety: A Four-Wave Study in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyi Ou ◽  
yunhanqi ◽  
Ke Zhang ◽  
Yuexiao Du ◽  
Yihang He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Relationship Satisfaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Social Relationships ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Perceived Social Support ◽  
The Social

The social isolation due to the COVID-19 pandemic exerts lasing impacts on people’s mental health. However, whether and how people’s pre-existing positive social relationships can serve as stable reserves to alleviate people psychological distress following the disaster remains unknown. To address the question, the current study examined whether pre-pandemic relationship satisfaction would predict post-pandemic COVID-19 anxiety through middle-pandemic perceived social support and/or gratitude using four-wave data in China (N = 222, 54.50% female, Mage = 31.53, SD = 8.17). Results showed that people’s COVID-19 anxiety decreased from the peak to the trough pandemic stage; perceived social support increased markedly from the pre-pandemic to the peak and remained stable afterwards, while relationship satisfaction remained unchanged throughout. Further, it was middle-pandemic perceived social support, but not gratitude, mediated the association between pre-pandemic relationship satisfaction and post-pandemic COVID-19 anxiety, indicating perceived social support played a more crucial role than gratitude in this process. Last, it is suggested to distinguish perceived social support from gratitude as two different components of social interactions.

scholarly journals Inclusion and Integration of the Disabled into the Labor Market Against the Background of the New Regulations in Germany

Equilibrium ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 79-101
Author(s):  
Lilianna Jodkowska
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Quality Management System ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Disabled ◽  
Social Code ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
New Criteria

The aim of the article is to present new regulations introduced by the Third Book of the Social Code in Germany that concern a reform of the labor market's active instruments gathered under the name "Instumentenreform".  One of the main objectives of the reform is to improve the quality of programs and projects that activate the unemployed, but also to make efforts to include in the labor market groups that have not been activated in such a way so far. One of such groups are the disabled trained and employed in Invalids' Cooperatives.  One of the further, and at the same time new, criteria for all organizations and institutions receiving and applying for funds to realize programs of the labor market and vocational trainings is the introduction and certification of the quality management system. The aim of the paper is to compare the activity of Invalids' Cooperatives in Poland and Germany. This aim will be carried out by analyzing the regulations and as far as possible the data available (the regulations became effective in two stages: in April 2012, and since 01.01.2013 onwards).  The findings of the article have been collected in the form of a description of the situation and forecast for 2013.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF THE STATE SOCIAL POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE

2010 ◽  
pp. 56-59
Author(s):  
A. N. Ryahovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Social Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
The State ◽  
Special Significance ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
The People ◽  
The Social ◽  
Scientific Justification

As a result of the global financial and economic crisis, social problems have sharpened significantly. They affect the interest of the most population of the country. The efficiency of anti-recessionary measures and their productivity in the social field are analyzed in the article. According to the adjusted estimates of the RF Government, decrease in actual income of the people will continue and only by the end of 2012 a growth by only 3% to 2008 level is projected. The degree of elaboration and scientific justification of the state turnaround policy are getting special significance.

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