Forecasting Mortality Trends Allowing for Cause-of-Death Mortality Dependence

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Severine Gaille ◽  
Michael Sherris
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Mortality Trends

scholarly journals Premature Mortality in Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Liang ◽  
Emmalin Buajitti ◽  
Laura Rosella
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Income Quintile ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Central Canada ◽  
Over Time

Introduction: Premature mortality (deaths before age 75) is a well-established metric of population health and health system performance. In Canada, underlying differences between provinces/territories present a need for stratified mortality trends. Methods: Using data from the Canadian Vital Statistics Database, a descriptive analysis of sex-specific adult premature deaths over 1992-2015 was conducted by province, census divisions (CD), socioeconomic status (SES), age, and underlying cause of death. Premature mortality rates were calculated as the number of deaths per 100,000 individuals aged 18 to 74, per 8-year era. SES was measured using the income quintile of the neighbourhood of residence. Absolute and relative inequalities were respectively summarized using slope and relative indices of inequality, produced via unadjusted linear regression of the mortality rate on income rank. Results: Premature mortality in Canada declined by 21% for males and 13% for females between 1992-1999 and 2008-2015. The greatest reductions were in Central Canada, while Newfoundland saw notable increases. CD-level improvements appeared mostly in the southern half of Canada. As of 2008-2015, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and Nunavut had the highest mortality rates. Low area-level income was associated with higher mortality. SES inequalities grew over time. Newfoundland’s between-quintile differences rose from 1292 to 2389 deaths per 100k males, or 1.33 to 2.12-fold, and 586 to 1586 per 100k females, or 1.24 to 1.74-fold. In 2008-2015, mortality rates of the bottom quintile in Manitoba and Saskatchewan were more than 2.5 times those of the top. Mortality increased with age, and varied regionally. Low mortality in Central Canada and BC, and high mortality in the Territories were consistent across eras and sexes. Cause of death distributions shifted with age and sex, with more external deaths in younger males. Conclusion: Improvements were seen in adult premature mortality rates over time, but were unequal across geographies. Evidence exists for growing socioeconomic disparities in mortality.

Diagnostic Prescriptions

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-340
Author(s):  
Jeffrey K. Beemer
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Local Level ◽  
International Classification Of Diseases ◽  
The United States ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
Late Nineteenth ◽  
Level I

The lack of a standardized cause-of-death nomenclature poses certain challenges for historical and demographic research of nineteenth-century mortality trends. Efforts to standardize disease and cause-of-death terminology did not successfully take place on an international level until the late nineteenth century. While many disease terms were in common, their diagnostic applications were not. This study examines the relative impact that standardized nomenclature had on cause-of-death reporting in western Massachusetts from 1850 through 1912. I analyze the effects of one specific international influence on late-nineteenth- and early twentieth-century grammars of death, namely, the organized efforts of European and American medical professionals to instruct physicians in proper nomenclature through explicit references and sanctions in the 1900 International Classification of Diseases (ICD). My analysis focuses on the problematic usage of two diagnostic terms in particular:puerperal feverandinanition. The qualifying instructions for these diseases are particularly important for U.S. studies, because they targeted U.S. physicians for correction and provide further insight into the institutional efforts to effect conventional, diagnostic usage on both an international and a local level. I show that the ICD‘s effect on cause-of-death reporting in Holyoke and Northampton was modest at best. The ICD correctives in question were not unilateral directives from the European medical establishment but in fact originated in the United States. The ICD developed as a collaborative endeavor, enlisting the efforts and interests of participating countries to help create a mechanism for implementing a standardized cause-of-death nomenclature capable of addressing international and local public health concerns.

scholarly journals Analysis of trends in total deaths and AIDS-related deaths certified at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, from 2003 to 2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C H Vaughan Williams
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Age At Death ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Roll Out

Objectives. To analyse mortality trends from deaths registered at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, and possible impact of programmes to treat and prevent HIV infection. Design. Longitudinal study of death certifications from 2003 to 2008. Setting. Mosvold Hospital mortuary, Ingwavuma. Subjects. Counterfoils of form 83/BI-1663, Notification/Register of Death/Stillbirths (Republic of South Africa, Department of Home Affairs), completed at Mosvold Hospital from January 2003 to December 2008. Outcome measures. Age at death, cause of death, patterns of deaths grouped by age, gender and cause of death. Results. AIDS-related deaths were the cause of 53% of deaths, particularly affecting the 20 - 59-year and under-5 age groups. Since 2005 there has been a decline in deaths in the 20 - 59 age group and an increase in average age at death. Conclusions. The decrease in mortality from 2005 may be associated with antiretroviral roll-out reducing mortality from AIDS-related illnesses.

scholarly journals Tracking Excess Deaths (TRACKED) – an interactive online tool to monitor excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael T. C. Poon ◽  
Paul M. Brennan ◽  
Kai Jin ◽  
Jonine D. Figueroa ◽  
Cathie L. M. Sudlow
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Dynamic Assessment ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Excess Deaths

Background: We aimed to describe trends of excess mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) stratified by nation and cause of death, and to develop an online tool for reporting the most up to date data on excess mortality Methods: Population statistics agencies in the UK including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish weekly mortality data. We used mortality data up to 22nd May in the ONS and the NISRA and 24th May in the NRS. The main outcome measures were crude mortality for non-COVID deaths (where there is no mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate) calculated, and excess mortality defined as difference between observed mortality and expected average of mortality from previous 5 years. Results: There were 56,961 excess deaths, of which 8,986 were non-COVID excess deaths. England had the highest number of excess deaths per 100,000 population (85) and Northern Ireland the lowest (34). Non-COVID mortality increased from 23rd March and returned to the 5-year average on 10th May. In Scotland, where underlying cause mortality data besides COVID-related deaths was available, the percentage excess over the 8-week period when COVID-related mortality peaked was: dementia 49%, other causes 21%, circulatory diseases 10%, and cancer 5%. We developed an online tool (TRACKing Excess Deaths - TRACKED) to allow dynamic exploration and visualisation of the latest mortality trends. Conclusions: Continuous monitoring of excess mortality trends and further integration of age- and gender-stratified and underlying cause of death data beyond COVID-19 will allow dynamic assessment of the impacts of indirect and direct mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Modelling cause-of-death mortality and the impact of cause-elimination

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Alai ◽  
Séverine Arnold (-Gaille) ◽  
Michael Sherris
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Population Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Force Of Mortality ◽  
French Case ◽  
Competing Causes ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe analysis of causal mortality provides rich insight into changes in mortality trends that are hidden in population-level data. Therefore, we develop and apply a multinomial logistic framework to model causal mortality. We use internationally classified cause-of-death categories and data obtained from the World Health Organization. Inherent dependence amongst the competing causes is accounted for in the framework, which also allows us to investigate the effects of improvements in, or the elimination of, cause-specific mortality. This has applications to scenario-based forecasting often used to assess the impact of changes in mortality. The multinomial model is shown to be more conservative than commonly used approaches based on the force of mortality. We use the model to demonstrate the impact of cause-elimination on aggregate mortality using residual life expectancy and apply the model to a French case study.

scholarly journals Four Decades of COPD Mortality Trends: Analysis of Trends and Multiple Causes of Death

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1117
Author(s):  
Alberto Fernández-García ◽  
Mónica Pérez-Ríos ◽  
Alberto Fernández-Villar ◽  
Gael Naveira ◽  
Cristina Candal-Pedreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Obstructive Pulmonary Disease ◽  
Underlying Cause Of Death ◽  
Copd Mortality ◽  
Age Of Death

There is little information on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality trends, age of death, or male:female ratio. This study therefore sought to analyze time trends in mortality with COPD recorded as the underlying cause of death from 1980 through 2017, and with COPD recorded other than as the underlying cause of death. We conducted an analysis of COPD deaths in Galicia (Spain) from 1980 through 2017, including those in which COPD was recorded other than as the underlying cause of death from 2015 through 2017. We calculated the crude and standardized rates, and analyzed mortality trends using joinpoint regression models. There were 43,234 COPD deaths, with a male:female ratio of 2.4. Median age of death was 82 years. A change point in the mortality trend was detected in 1996 with a significant decrease across the sexes, reflected by an annual percentage change of −3.8%. Taking deaths into account in which COPD participated or contributed without being the underlying cause led to an overall 42% increase in the mortality burden. The most frequent causes of death when COPD was not considered to be the underlying cause were bronchopulmonary neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. COPD mortality has decreased steadily across the sexes in Galicia since 1996, and age of death has also gradually increased. Multiple-cause death analysis may help prevent the underestimation of COPD mortality.

scholarly journals US Obesity Mortality Trends and Associated Noncommunicable Diseases Contributing Conditions Among White, Black, and Hispanic Individuals by Age from 1999 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Gerardo de Cosio ◽  
Beatriz Diaz-Apodaca ◽  
Amanda Baker ◽  
Miriam Patricia Cifuentes ◽  
Hector Ojeda-Casares ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Time To Death ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Causes Of Mortality ◽  
Underlying Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Of Death

AbstractThis study aims to assess the effect of obesity as an underlying cause of death in association with four main noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) as contributing causes of mortality on the age of death in White, Black, and Hispanic individuals in the USA. To estimate mortality hazard ratios, we ran a Cox regression on the US National Center for Health Statistics mortality integrated datasets from 1999 to 2017, which included almost 48 million cases. The variable in the model was the age of death in years as a proxy for time to death. The cause-of-death variable allowed for the derivation of predictor variables of obesity and the four main NCDs. The overall highest obesity mortality HR when associated with NCD contributing conditions for the year 1999–2017 was diabetes (2.15; 95% CI: 2.11–2.18), while Whites had the highest HR (2.46; 95% CI: 2.41–2.51) when compared with Black (1.32; 95% CI: 1.27–1.38) and Hispanics (1.25; 95% CI: 1.18–1.33). Hispanics had lower mortality HR for CVD (1.21; 95% CI: 1.15–1.27) and diabetes (1.25; 95% CI: 1.18–1.33) of the three studied groups. The obesity death mean was 57.3 years for all groups. People who die from obesity are, on average, 15.4 years younger than those without obesity. Although Hispanics in the USA have a higher prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), they also have the lowest mortality HR for obesity as an underlying cause of death when associated with CVD and cancer. While there is no obvious solution for obesity and its complications, continued efforts to address obesity are needed.

scholarly journals Opioid-Related Mortality for Individuals with Sickle Cell Disease Remains Low with No Significant Increase during 2013-2019

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 124-124
Author(s):  
Lana Mucalo ◽  
Amanda M. Brandow ◽  
Ashima Singh
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Black People ◽  
Opioid Analgesics ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Cell Disease ◽  
White People ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract In 2017, the United States (US) Department of Health and Human Services declared the opioid epidemic a public health emergency due to rising opioid-related deaths. Since then, there has been increasing pressure to implement policies that regulate the use and prescribing of opioid medications. These new policies that include limiting the amount of prescribed opioids can adversely affect individuals with chronic pain conditions, such as sickle cell disease (SCD), who require opioid analgesics to manage acute and chronic pain. Individuals with SCD are also affected by racial disparities in healthcare which further exacerbate the withholding of opioid medication for these individuals when needed. Opioid-related mortality trends have not been quantified specifically for individuals with SCD. Therefore, the objective of this report is to describe opioid-related mortality trends in individuals with SCD. We hypothesize that there has been no significant increase in mortality rates due to opioids during the years 2013-2019 in individuals with SCD. Secondarily, we hypothesize that individuals with SCD do not have a higher rate of death due to opioids, compared to both Black people without SCD and White people. To determine the number of deaths and population at risk during the years 2013-2019, we used data from the Center of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) Multiple Cause of Death database. The opioid-related overdose deaths were identified using the underlying cause of death ICD-10 codes of 'X40', 'X41', 'X42', 'X43', 'X44', 'X60', 'X61', 'X62', 'X63', 'X64', 'X85', 'Y10', 'Y11', 'Y12', 'Y13', 'Y14' and multiple cause of death codes were used to identify specific drug type: 'T40.0', 'T40.1', 'T40.2', 'T40.3', 'T40.4', 'T40.6'. The deaths were determined to be among individuals with SCD if the multiple cause of death included codes for SCD 'D57.0', 'D57.1', 'D57.2', 'D57.4', 'D57.8'. Since there are no direct estimates of the SCD population in the US, we extrapolated the SCD population at risk by assuming that 1 in 365 Black people in the US have SCD. The mortality rates among Black people with SCD, Black people without SCD and White people were calculated as the crude rate per 100,000 people. The trends for death rates during 2013-2019 were evaluated using Joinpoint regression. These models fit the rates on a logarithmic scale using a series of permutation tests. We compared overall deaths over the years 2013-2019 between Black people with SCD, Black people without SCD and White people using the chi-square test in SPSS. A p-value of <0.05 was considered significant. Between 2013 and 2019 there were 273,301 recorded deaths due to opioids in the US. Of these, 236,982 (87.29%) occurred among White people, 31,316 (10.87%) among Black people without SCD, and 77 (0.03% of total opioid deaths) among Black people with SCD. Figure 1 represents mortality trends over time and Table 1 shows regression analysis and annual percentage changes in cohorts. We identified no statistically significant changes in the trend during the years 2013-2019 for Black people with SCD (annual percent change-APC=8.9%, p=0.217). However, we observe significant increasing opioid-related mortality rates for Black people without SCD (APC=24.9%, p<0.001). The mortality rates for White people increased significantly until 2017 (APC=16.0%, p=0.011) and then flattened over the years 2017-19. Overall mortality rates between the 2013-2019 period for Black people with SCD were significantly lower compared to White people (62.1 vs 93.8 per 100,000, p<0.001), but the difference was not significant in comparison to Black people without SCD (62.1 vs 69.4 per 100,000, p=0.33). Opioid-related mortality in Black people with SCD has not significantly increased over time despite overall increased opioid-related mortality in Black people without SCD and White people. Further, Black people with SCD have significantly lower opioid-related mortality rates compared to White people. These data support continued efforts are needed to ensure access to opioid analgesics for individuals with SCD and promote SCD pain treatment as per evidence-based guidelines. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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