Covid Adult Mortality in Brazil: An Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death

ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyze the chain of events and contributing causes associated with COVID-19 adult mortality (30–69 years old), based on qualified data on CoD from three Brazilian capitals cities, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Natal, in 2020.MethodsData of all deaths among residents in the three capitals in 2020 were provided by these municipalities' routine Mortality Information System (SIM). Mentions B34.2 with the markers U07.1 and U07.2 in the death certificate identified COVID-19 deaths. We used a multiple-cause-of-death approach better to understand the complexity of the morbid process of COVID-19. Conditions that appeared more frequently in the same line or above the COVID-19 mentions in the death certificate were considered a chain-of-event. Conditions that occurred more often after the codes for COVID-19 were considered as contributing.ResultsIn 2020, 7,029 records from COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death were registered in SIM in the three capitals. Among these, 2,921 (41.6%) were deceased between 30 and 69 years old, representing 17.0% of deaths in this age group. As chain-of-events, the most frequent conditions mentioned were sepsis (33.4%), SARS (32.0%), acute respiratory failure (31.9%), unspecified lower respiratory infections (unspecified pneumonia) (20.1%), and other specified respiratory disorders (14.1%). Hypertension (33.3%), diabetes unspecified type (21.7%), renal failure (12.7%), obesity (9.8%), other chronic kidney diseases (4.9%), and diabetes mellitus type 2 (4.7%) were the most frequent contributing conditions. On average, 3.04 conditions were mentioned in the death certificate besides COVID-19. This average varied according to age, place of death, and capital.ConclusionThe multiple-cause analysis is a powerful tool to better understand the morbid process due to COVID-19 and highlight the importance of chronic non-communicable diseases as contributing conditions.

Heart failure quantified by underlying cause and multiple cause of death in Brazil between 2006 and 2016

Background The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) does not produce estimates of heart failure (HF) since this condition is considered the common end to several diseases (i.e., garbage code). This study aims to analyze the interactions between underlying and multiple causes of death related to HF in Brazil and its geographic regions, by sex, from 2006 to 2016. Methods Descriptive study of a historical series of death certificates (DCs) related to deaths that occurred in Brazil between 2006 and 2016, including both sexes and all age groups. To identify HF as the underlying cause of death or as a multiple cause of death, we considered the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code I50 followed by any digit. We evaluated the deaths and constructed graphs by geographic region to compare with national data. Results We included 1,074,038 DCs issued between 2006 and 2016 that included code I50 in Parts I or II of the certificate. The frequency of HF as the multiple cause of death in both sexes was nearly three times higher than the frequency of HF as an underlying cause of death; this observation remained consistent over the years. The Southeast region had the highest number of deaths in all years (about 40,000 records) and approximately double the number in the Northeast region and more than four times the number in the North region. Codes of diseases clinically unrelated to HF, such as diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke, were mentioned in 3.11, 2.62, and 1.49% of the DCs, respectively. Conclusions When we consider HF as the underlying cause of death, we observed an important underestimation of its impact on mortality, since when analyzed as a multiple cause of death, HF is present in almost three times more deaths recorded in Brazil from 2006 to 2016. The mentioning of conditions with little association with HF at the time of the death highlights the importance of HF as a complex syndrome with multiple components that must be considered in the analysis of mortality trends for implementation of public health management programs.

The impact of errors in medical certification on the accuracy of the underlying cause of death

Background Correct certification of cause of death by physicians (i.e. completing the medical certificate of cause of death or MCCOD) and correct coding according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD) rules are essential to produce quality mortality statistics to inform health policy. Despite clear guidelines, errors in medical certification are common. This study objectively measures the impact of different medical certification errors upon the selection of the underlying cause of death. Methods A sample of 1592 error-free MCCODs were selected from the 2017 United States multiple cause of death data. The ten most common types of errors in completing the MCCOD (according to published studies) were individually simulated on the error-free MCCODs. After each simulation, the MCCODs were coded using Iris automated mortality coding software. Chance-corrected concordance (CCC) was used to measure the impact of certification errors on the underlying cause of death. Weights for each error type and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) group (representing different mortality conditions) were calculated from the CCC and categorised (very high, high, medium and low) to describe their effect on cause of death accuracy. Findings The only very high impact error type was reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death. High impact errors were found to be reporting competing causes in Part 1 [of the death certificate] and illegibility, with medium impact errors being reporting underlying cause in Part 2 [of the death certificate], incorrect or absent time intervals and reporting contributory causes in Part 1, and low impact errors comprising multiple causes per line and incorrect sequence. There was only small difference in error importance between SDI groups. Conclusions Reporting an ill-defined condition as the underlying cause of death can seriously affect the coding outcome, while other certification errors were mitigated through the correct application of mortality coding rules. Training of physicians in not reporting ill-defined conditions on the MCCOD and mortality coders in correct coding practices and using Iris should be important components of national strategies to improve cause of death data quality.

Death surveillance and contributions to an improved definition of the underlying cause of neonatal death

Objective: To analyze the improvement of the definition of the underlying cause of neonatal deaths before and after death surveillance in Recife, Pernambuco. Methods: A descriptive study that used data from medical certificates of death, confidential data sheets, summaries of investigations. The profiles and the relocation of the underlying cause of death were compared before and after the investigation through specific chapters and groups of the Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases. The agreement was analyzed using the Kappa index. Results: Of the total 144 deaths investigated, 95 (66.0%) had their underlying cause redefined. During the general analysis of the neonatal component, a reasonable agreement index was identified (0.311; CI95%: 0.272-0.350). All ill-defined causes were clarified after surveillance. There was an increment of the preventability potential for all neonatal deaths, with an emphasis on early deaths, which reached 100% causes registered as preventable. Conclusion: Death surveillance made it possible to improve the specificity of the underlying causes described in the medical certificate of death and may contribute to the reorientation of the strategies to reduce neonatal mortality from the perspective of preventability.

Missing cases of injury death: use of quantitative methods and case reviews to inform future improvements in case definition

BackgroundKnowledge of fatal injuries is required to inform prevention activities. Where hospital patients with an injury principal diagnosis (PDx) died and were certified to a medical underlying cause of death (UCoD), there is the potential to underestimate injury mortality. We sought to characterise injury/non-injury (NI) mismatches between PDx and UCoD by identifying which subgroups had small/large mismatches, and to understand why mismatches had occurred using informative examples.MethodHospital records (n=10 234) with a PDx of injury were linked to the mortality collection using a unique personal identifier. Percentages UCoD coded to a NI were tabulated, for three follow-up periods and by selected variables. Additionally, we reviewed a sample of 70 records for which there was a mismatch.Results%NIs were 39%, 66% and 77% for time from injury to death of <1 week, <90 days and <1 year, respectively. Variations in %NI were found for all variables. Illustrative examples of 70 medical UCoD deaths showed that for 12 cases the injury event was unequivocally judged to have resulted in premature death. A further 16 were judged as injury deaths using balance of probability arguments.ConclusionThere is variation in rates of mismatch between PDx of injury and UCoD of NI. While legitimate reasons exist for mismatches in certain groups, a material number of injury deaths are not captured using UCoD alone; a new operational definition of injury death is needed. Early solutions are proposed. Further work is needed to investigate operational definitions with acceptable false positive and negative detection rates.

Mortality among People with Epilepsy: A Retrospective Nationwide Analysis from 2016 to 2019

We estimated age-adjusted mortality and investigated the dominant causes of death as well as comorbidities among people with epilepsy (PWE) in Lithuania, a country with frequent deaths from external causes. From 2016 to 2019, the age-adjusted rate of death among PWE in Lithuania was compared with mortality data in the general population. Each year of analysis, individuals who were diagnosed with epilepsy comprised a retrospective cohort. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of PWE varied from 2.93 (95% CI 2.78 to 3.07) to 3.18 (95% CI 3.02 to 3.34). PWE died at least one decade earlier than expected in the general population. The dominant causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (their proportion ranged from 44.8% to 49.3%), cancer (16.7% to 21.3%) and external causes of death (8.5% to 10.9%). The proportion of the latter decreased over time (r = −0.99, p = 0.01), whereas the SMR for external causes of death remained relatively constant. Epilepsy was the underlying cause of death in 163 cases (2.6%), and noted as a condition contributing to death in 1010 cases (15.9%). Cerebrovascular and cardiological conditions and dementia were the most frequent comorbidities among PWE before their death. Epilepsy-unrelated causes of death are relevant contributors to mortality among PWE. There is a need for PWE-oriented societal interventions to reduce the frequency of external deaths beyond the trend in the general population.

Time series of diabetes attributable mortality from 2008 to 2017

Purpose Diabetes is a growing health problem. The aim of this study was to capture time trends in mortality associated with diabetes. Methods The mortality database of the Veneto region (Italy) includes both the underlying causes of death, and all the diseases mentioned in the death certificate. The annual percent change (APC) in age-standardized rates from 2008 to 2017 was computed by the Joinpoint Regression Program. Results Overall 453,972 deaths (56,074 with mention of diabetes) were observed among subjects aged ≥ 40 years. Mortality rates declined for diabetes as the underlying cause of death and from diabetes-related circulatory diseases. The latter declined especially in females − 4.4 (CI 95% − 5.3/− 3.4), while in males the APC was − 2.8 (CI 95% − 4.0/− 1.6). Conclusion We observed a significant reduction in mortality during the period 2008–2017 in diabetes either as underlying cause of death or when all mentions of diabetes in the death certificate were considered.

Still’s Disease Mortality Trends in France, 1979–2016: A Multiple-Cause-of-Death Study

Still’s disease (SD) is often considered a benign disease, with low mortality rates. However, few studies have investigated SD mortality and its causes and most of these have been single-center cohort studies. We sought to examine mortality rates and causes of death among French decedents with SD. We performed a multiple-cause-of-death analysis on data collected between 1979 and 2016 by the French Epidemiological Center for the Medical Causes of Death. SD-related mortality rates were calculated and compared with the general population (observed/expected ratios, O/E). A total of 289 death certificates mentioned SD as the underlying cause of death (UCD) (n = 154) or as a non-underlying causes of death (NUCD) (n = 135). Over the study period, the mean age at death was 55.3 years (vs. 75.5 years in the general population), with differences depending on the period analyzed. The age-standardized mortality rate was 0.13/million person-years and was not different between men and women. When SD was the UCD, the most frequent associated causes were cardiovascular diseases (n = 29, 18.8%), infections (n = 25, 16.2%), and blood disorders (n = 11, 7.1%), including six cases (54%) with macrophage activation syndrome. As compared to the general population, SD decedents aged <45 years were more likely to die from a cardiovascular event (O/E = 3.41, p < 0.01); decedents at all ages were more likely to die from infection (O/E = 7.96–13.02, p < 0.001).

531Investigating systemic autoimmune diseases as a group of causes of death: mortality burden and comorbidities

Background Systemic autoimmune diseases (SAIDs) have chronic trajectories and share characteristics of self-directed inflammation and aspects of clinical expression. Nonetheless, burden-of-disease studies rarely investigate them as a distinct category. This study aims to assess the mortality rate of SAIDs as a group and to evaluate co-occurring causes of death. Methods We used death certificate data in the Netherlands, 2013-2017, (N = 711,247) and constructed a SAIDs list (4-position ICD-10). The mortality rate of SAIDs as underlying Cause of Death (CoD), non-underlying CoD, and any-mention CoD was calculated. We estimated age-sex-standardized observed/expected ratios to assess comorbidities in deaths with SAID relative to the general deceased population. Results We observed 3,335 deaths with SAID on their death certificate (0.47% of all deaths). The mortality rate of SAID was 14.6 per million population as underlying CoD, 28.0 as non-underlying CoD, and 39.7 as any-mention CoD. The mortality rate was higher for females and increased exponentially with age. SAID-related deaths were positively associated with all comorbidities except for solid neoplasms and mental conditions. Particularly strong was the association with musculoskeletal (O/E=3.38,95% CI[2.98,3.82]), other genitourinary (O/E=2.73,95% CI[2.18,3.38]), blood (O/E=2.02,95% CI[1.70,2.39]), skin and subcutaneous tissue (O/E=1.95,95% CI[1.54,2.45]), and infectious diseases (O/E=1.85,95% CI[1.70,2.01]), as well as influenza (O/E=2.71,95% CI[1.74,4.03]). Conclusions Systemic autoimmune diseases constitute a rare group of causes of death, but contribute to mortality through multiple comorbidities. Classification systems could be adapted to better encompass these diseases as a category. Key messages Reclassification of readily available data provides useful estimates for the mortality burden of systemic autoimmune diseases in the population.

1000Quantifying multiple causes of death: A systematic review and audit of methods and practice

Background Mortality reporting and research are typically focused on a single underlying cause of death (UCoD) selected from multiple reported causes. The need to incorporate multiple causes of death (MCoD) in mortality statistics is now recognised internationally, but there is scant methodological work to guide analytical approaches. This review aims to identify and appraise current methods and practices used to analyse MCoD data. Methods The Web of Science, Medline, Pubmed and Scopus (from inception to December 2019) were queried. Studies reporting MCoD alone or in comparison with single UCoD were included. The review is supplemented by qualitative interview with international experts. Results 3491 studies were identified; 141 full texts were included in the review. The measures usually estimated when analysing MCoD can be broadly categorised into descriptive measures (n = 93 studies), measures of associations between diseases (n = 46 studies) and advanced statistical methods (n = 11 studies). Descriptive statistics commonly used include standardized ratio of multiple to underlying cause (SRMU) and mortality rates based on any mention of a disease. Approaches used to assess measures of associations between diseases include the Cause-of-Death Association Indicator (CDAI) and social network analysis. The advanced statistical methods include weighting MCoD and lethal defect-wear model of mortality. Audit results will be discussed. Conclusions This review provides a comprehensive and updated summary of methodological approaches used to analyse MCoD data. The merit of each analytical framework is discussed. Key messages More work is needed to develop methodological frameworks that could be used to support routine consideration of MCoD in practice.