scholarly journals Modelling cause-of-death mortality and the impact of cause-elimination

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 167-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Alai ◽  
Séverine Arnold (-Gaille) ◽  
Michael Sherris
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Population Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Force Of Mortality ◽  
French Case ◽  
Competing Causes ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe analysis of causal mortality provides rich insight into changes in mortality trends that are hidden in population-level data. Therefore, we develop and apply a multinomial logistic framework to model causal mortality. We use internationally classified cause-of-death categories and data obtained from the World Health Organization. Inherent dependence amongst the competing causes is accounted for in the framework, which also allows us to investigate the effects of improvements in, or the elimination of, cause-specific mortality. This has applications to scenario-based forecasting often used to assess the impact of changes in mortality. The multinomial model is shown to be more conservative than commonly used approaches based on the force of mortality. We use the model to demonstrate the impact of cause-elimination on aggregate mortality using residual life expectancy and apply the model to a French case study.

Household and Population-Level Behavioural Changes Due to COVID-19 Pandemic: A Smart Thermostat Based Comparative Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Kirti Sundar Sahu ◽  
Arlene Oetomo ◽  
Niloofar Jalali ◽  
Plinio P. Morita
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Population Level ◽  
World Health ◽  
Motion Sensors ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Smart Thermostat ◽  
The Impact

The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. To inhibit the spread of COVID-19, governments around the globe, including Canada, have implemented physical distancing and lockdown measures, including a work-from-home policy. Canada in 2020 has developed a 24-Hour Movement Guideline for all ages laying guidance on the ideal amount of physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep (PASS) for an individual in a day. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes on the household and population-level in lifestyle behaviours (PASS) and time spent indoors at the household level, following the implementation of physical distancing protocols and stay-at-home guidelines. For this study, we used 2019 and 2020 data from ecobee, a Canadian smart Wi-Fi thermostat company, through the Donate Your Data (DYD) program. Using motion sensors data, we quantified the amount of sleep by using the absence of movement, and similarly, increased sensor activation to show a longer duration of household occupancy. The key findings of this study were; during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall household-level activity increased significantly compared to pre-pandemic times, there was no significant difference between household-level behaviours between weekdays and weekends during the pandemic, average sleep duration has not changed, but the pattern of sleep behaviour significantly changed, specifically, bedtime and wake up time delayed, indoor time spent has been increased and outdoor time significantly reduced. Our data analysis shows the feasibility of using big data to monitor the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the household and population-level behaviours and patterns of change.

scholarly journals Investigation of Drowning Deaths: A Practical Review

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica J. Armstrong ◽  
Kevin L. Erskine
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Close Observation ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Public Health And Safety

Drowning, which typically involves a watery environment, remains a serious public health concern claiming an estimated 362 000 lives per year worldwide across all socioeconomic classifications and has remained under close observation by the World Health Organization and its signatories. A significant number of water-related deaths are attributed to accidental drowning, while a smaller but still significant number represent suicidal or homicidal drowning. Others involve a combination of drowning precipitated by injury, intoxication, or environmental extremes. Still others involve victims that die from injury, intoxication, or a natural disease entity of such significance as to preclude the drowning process, while near or in water. While there may be an initial presumption that all water-related deaths are accidental drownings, other possibilities must be considered in the investigation of these types of deaths, as drowning as a cause of death is a diagnosis based on the exclusion of other potential causes. The coordinated investigative efforts of multiple agencies and disciplines are required not only for the designation as drowning as the cause of death but also for death certification. The ongoing analysis and dissemination of data generated from all levels of investigation augment our understanding of the impact on public health and safety, guiding allocation of monetary and educational resources in an effort to prevent further mortality and disability.

scholarly journals Modelling the performance of isoniazid preventive therapy for reducing tuberculosis in HIV endemic settings: the effects of network structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (63) ◽  
pp. 1510-1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. L. Mills ◽  
T. Cohen ◽  
C. Colijn
Keyword(s):  
Network Structure ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Preventive Therapy ◽  
Isoniazid Preventive Therapy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Individuals living with HIV experience a much higher risk of progression from latent M. tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis (TB) disease relative to individuals with intact immune systems. A several-month daily course of a single drug during latent infection (i.e. isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT)) has proved in clinical trials to substantially reduce an HIV-infected individual's risk of TB disease. As a result of these findings and ongoing studies, the World Health Organization has produced strong guidelines for implementing IPT on a community-wide scale for individuals with HIV at risk of TB disease. To date, there has been limited use of IPT at a community-wide level. In this paper, we present a new co-network model for HIV and TB co-epidemics to address questions about how the population-level impact of community-wide IPT may differ from the individual-level impact of IPT offered to selected individuals. In particular, we examine how the effect of clustering of contacts within high-TB incidence communities may affect the rates of re-infection with TB and how this clustering modifies the expected population-level effects of IPT. We find that populations with clustering of respiratory contacts experience aggregation of TB cases and high numbers of re-infection events. While, encouragingly, the overall population-level effects of community-wide IPT appear to be sustained regardless of network structure, we find that in populations where these contacts are highly clustered, there is dramatic heterogeneity in the impact of IPT: in some sub-regions of these populations, TB is nearly eliminated, while in others, repeated re-infection almost completely undermines the effect of IPT. Our findings imply that as IPT programmes are brought to scale, we should expect local heterogeneity of effectiveness as a result of the complex patterns of disease transmission within communities.

scholarly journals Potential impact of tuberculosis vaccines in China, South Africa, and India

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (564) ◽  
pp. eaax4607
Author(s):  
Rebecca C. Harris ◽  
Tom Sumner ◽  
Gwenan M. Knight ◽  
Hui Zhang ◽  
Richard G. White
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Median Percentage ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Adolescent Vaccination ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

More effective tuberculosis vaccines are needed to help reach World Health Organization tuberculosis elimination goals. Insufficient evidence exists on the potential impact of future tuberculosis vaccines with varying characteristics and in different epidemiological settings. To inform vaccine development decision making, we modeled the impact of hypothetical tuberculosis vaccines in three high-burden countries. We calibrated Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) transmission models to age-stratified demographic and epidemiological data from China, South Africa, and India. We varied vaccine efficacy to prevent infection or disease, effective in persons M.tb uninfected or infected, and duration of protection. We modeled routine early-adolescent vaccination and 10-yearly mass campaigns from 2025. We estimated median percentage population-level tuberculosis incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 compared to a no new vaccine scenario. In all settings, results suggested vaccines preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations would have greatest impact by 2050 (10-year, 70% efficacy against disease, IRR 51%, 52%, and 54% in China, South Africa, and India, respectively). Vaccines preventing reinfection delivered lower potential impact (IRR 1, 12, and 17%). Intermediate impact was predicted for vaccines effective only in uninfected populations, if preventing infection (IRR 21, 37, and 50%) or disease (IRR 19, 36, and 51%), with greater impact in higher-transmission settings. Tuberculosis vaccines have the potential to deliver substantial population-level impact. For prioritizing impact by 2050, vaccine development should focus on preventing disease in M.tb-infected populations. Preventing infection or disease in uninfected populations may be useful in higher transmission settings. As vaccine impact depended on epidemiology, different development strategies may be required.

scholarly journals 923Quantifying multiple causes of death: Observed patterns in Australia, 2006–2017

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Bishop ◽  
Saliu Balogun ◽  
James Eynston-Hinkins ◽  
Lauren Moran ◽  
Margarita Moreno-Betancur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
International Classification Of Diseases ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Multiple Causes Of Death ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multiple Causes

Abstract Background Four fifths of deaths in Australia involve multiple causes, but statistics typically use a single underlying cause of death (UC). The UC approach alone is insufficient for understanding the impact of non-underlying causes and identifying comorbid disease associations at death. Analysis of multiple causes of death (MC) is needed to measure the impact of all causes. We described MC patterns, considering cause-of-death coding and certification practices in Australia. Methods Using deaths registered in Australia from 2006 to 2017 (n = 1773525) coded to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and an extended classification (n = 136 causes) based on a World Health Organization short list, we described MCoD data by cause. Age-standardised rates based on UC and MC were compared using the standardised ratio of multiple to underlying causes (SRMU) to estimate the contribution of the cause to mortality compared to using the UC approach. Comorbidity was explored using the cause of death association indicator (CDAI) to compare the observed joint frequency of a contributory-underlying cause combined with expected frequency of the contributory cause (with any UC). Results On average 3.4 conditions caused each death and 24.4% of deaths had 5 plus causes. Largest SRMUs were for genitourinary diseases (8.0), blood diseases (7.8) and musculoskeletal conditions (6.7). CDAIs showed high associations between, for example, accidental alcohol and opioid poisoning, septicaemia and skin infections, and traumatic brain injury and falls. Conclusions MC indicators enhance measures of mortality and reassess the role of causes of death for descriptive and analytical epidemiology. Key messages This research demonstrates the value of MC analysis for Australian mortality data.

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1458-1464
Author(s):  
Sweta Kamboj ◽  
Rohit Kamboj ◽  
Shikha Kamboj ◽  
Kumar Guarve ◽  
Rohit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tract Disease ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

scholarly journals The impact of coronavirus outbreak on breastfeeding guidelines among Brazilian hospitals and maternity services: a cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Walusa Assad Gonçalves-Ferri ◽  
◽  
Fábia Martins Pereira-Cellini ◽  
Kelly Coca ◽  
Davi Casale Aragon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
World Health ◽  
Breastfeeding Support ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Maternity Services ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Skin Contact ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The World Health Organization recognizes exclusive breastfeeding a safe source of nutrition available for children in most humanitarian emergencies, as in the current pandemic caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Despite the Brazilian national guideline protecting breastfeeding practices, there are many concerns about protecting infants from their infected mothers. This study aimed to analyze how the Brazilian hospitals and maternity services promote and support mothers suspected or diagnosed with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods This is a descriptive cross-sectional and multicenter study which collected data from 24 Brazilian hospitals and maternity services between March and July 2020. Representatives of the institutions completed a questionnaire based on acts to promote and support breastfeeding, the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative, and Brazil’s federal law recommendations. Results The results showed that in delivery rooms, 98.5% of the services prohibited immediate and uninterrupted skin-to-skin contact between mothers and their infants and did not support mothers to initiate breastfeeding in the first hour. On the postnatal ward, 98.5% of the services allowed breastfeeding while implementing respiratory hygiene practices to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Companions for mothers were forbidden in 83.3% of the hospitals. Hospital discharge was mostly between 24 and 28 h (79.1%); discharge guidelines were not individualized. Additionally, a lack of support was noticed from the home environment’s health community network (83.3%). Hospital and home breast pumping were allowed (87.5%), but breast milk donation was not accepted (95.8%). There was a lack of guidance regarding the use of infant comforting strategies. Guidelines specific for vulnerable populations were not covered in the material evaluated. Conclusions In Brazil, hospitals have not followed recommendations to protect, promote, and support breastfeeding during the COVID-19 outbreak. The disagreement between international guidelines has been a major issue. The absence of recommendations on breastfeeding support during the pandemic led to difficulties in developing standards among hospitals in different regions of Brazil and other countries worldwide. The scientific community needs to discuss how to improve maternal and infant care services to protect breastfeeding in the current pandemic.

Defining Preterm Birth and Stillbirth in the Western Pacific: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110260
Author(s):  
Mairead Connolly ◽  
Laura Phung ◽  
Elise Farrington ◽  
Michelle J. L. Scoullar ◽  
Alyce N. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
World Health ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Preterm birth and stillbirth are important global perinatal health indicators. Definitions of these indicators can differ between countries, affecting comparability of preterm birth and stillbirth rates across countries. This study aimed to document national-level adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of preterm birth and stillbirth in the WHO Western Pacific region. A systematic search of government health websites and 4 electronic databases was conducted. Any official report or published study describing the national definition of preterm birth or stillbirth published between 2000 and 2020 was eligible for inclusion. A total of 58 data sources from 21 countries were identified. There was considerable variation in how preterm birth and stillbirth was defined across the region. The most frequently used lower gestational age threshold for viability of preterm birth was 28 weeks gestation (range 20-28 weeks), and stillbirth was most frequently classified from 20 weeks gestation (range 12-28 weeks). High-income countries more frequently used earlier gestational ages for preterm birth and stillbirth compared with low- to middle-income countries. The findings highlight the importance of clear, standardized, internationally comparable definitions for perinatal indicators. Further research is needed to determine the impact on regional preterm birth and stillbirth rates.

scholarly journals P087 Mortality trends from systemic lupus erythematosus in Cuba: 2001-2014

Rheumatology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halbert Hernández Negrín
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Health Problem ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Reference Population ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background/Aims  There is little research on the mortality of Cuban patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), with not enough impact to recognize SLE as a health problem in the country. Our aim was to identify time trends and geographic variability in the mortality of Cuban patients with SLE. Methods  Mortality data of decedents over 15 years old were retrieved from the Cuban Ministry of Public Health mortality database, based on International Classification of Disease (ICD), Tenth Revision (ICD-10, code M32). We computed age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for each year and province as the estimated number of deaths per million inhabitants and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) using World Health Organization reference population. The 2001-2014 time trends were analyzed using Jointpoint software. Results  Between 2001 and 2014, 1,054 deaths from SLE were found, mostly women (89.0%), white (54.4%) with a median age of 43 years (interquartile range: 34-53). In 2014 the ASMR caused by SLE per million inhabitants was 14.4 (95% CI: 10.9 to 18.4) in women and 1.3 (95% CI: 0.5 to 3.2) in men. A growing time trend was identified in the ASMR by SLE throughout the period (average annual percentage change [AAPC]: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.6), highest in males (AAPC: 5.6; 95% CI: 1.7 to 9.7) than in females (AAPC: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.3 to 2.0). The highest mortality in women was concentrated in the provinces of Camagüey, Las Tunas and Granma, and in the case of men, in Havana and Ciego de Ávila. Conclusion  The variation in the magnitude of the risk of dying from SLE over time and geographic areas indicates the possible influence of biological, environmental, socioeconomic and health systems factors. The growing trend in SLE mortality in Cuba demands its recognition as an important health problem and immediate actions that help mitigate it. Disclosure  H. Hernández Negrín: None.

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