On Dynamic Measures of Risk

Current estimates of obesity costs ignore the impact of future weight loss and gain, and may either over or underestimate economic consequences of weight loss. In light of this, I construct static and dynamic measures of medical costs associated with body mass index (BMI), to be balanced against the cost of one-time interventions. This study finds that ignoring the implications of weight loss and gain over time overstates the medical-cost savings of such interventions by an order of magnitude. When the relationship between spending and age is allowed to vary, weight-loss attempts appear to be cost-effective starting and ending with middle age. Some interventions recently proven to decrease weight may also be cost-effective.

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Uncertain Meanings of Risk

10.1093/oso/9780198820802.003.0011 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Natalia Besedovsky

Keyword(s):

Financial Markets ◽

Credit Rating ◽

Traditional Approach ◽

Credit Ratings ◽

Assessment Practices ◽

Structured Finance ◽

Rating Agencies ◽

Measures Of Risk ◽

Methodological Approaches ◽

Ontological Uncertainty

This chapter studies calculative risk-assessment practices in credit rating agencies. It identifies two fundamentally different methodological approaches for producing ratings, which in turn shape the respective conceptions of credit risk. The traditional approach sees ‘risk’ as an only partially calculable and predictable set of hazards that should be avoided or minimized. This approach is particularly evident in the production of country credit ratings and gives rise to ordinal rankings of risk. By contrast, structured finance rating practices conceive of ‘risk’ as both fully calculable and controllable; they construct cardinal measures of risk by assuming that ontological uncertainty does not exist and that models can capture all possible events in a probabilistic manner. This assumption—that uncertainty can be turned into measurable risk—is a necessary precondition for structured finance securities and has become an influential imaginary in financial markets.

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Physical Resilience as a Determinant of Healthspan and Lifespan in Mice

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igaa057.3031 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 829-829

Author(s):

Nathan LeBrasseur

Keyword(s):

Middle Ages ◽

Interest Group ◽

Later Life ◽

Cytotoxic Drugs ◽

Geriatric Syndromes ◽

Age Related ◽

Fundamental Biology ◽

Dynamic Measures ◽

Biology Of Aging ◽

Insight Into

Abstract Dynamic measures of physical resilience—the ability to resist and recover from a challenge—may be informative of biological age far prior to overt manifestations such as age-related diseases and geriatric syndromes (i.e., frailty). If true, physical resilience at younger or middle ages may be predictive of future healthspan and lifespan, and provide a unique paradigm in which interventions targeting the fundamental biology of aging can be tested. This seminar will discuss research on the development of clinically-relevant measures of physical resilience in mice, including anesthesia, surgery, and cytotoxic drugs. It will further highlight how these measures compare between young, middle-aged, and older mice, and how mid-life resilience relates to later-life healthspan. Finally, it will provide insight into whether interventions targeting the biology of aging can modify physical resilience in mice. Part of a symposium sponsored by Epidemiology of Aging Interest Group.

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Application of the Fuel-Optimal Energy Management in Design Study of a Parallel Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Journal of Fuels ◽

10.1155/2014/417172 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-12 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Afshin Pedram Pourhashemi ◽

S. M. Mehdi Ansarey Movahed ◽

Masoud Shariat Panahi

Keyword(s):

Optimal Design ◽

Energy Management ◽

Management Strategy ◽

Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Design Parameters ◽

Programming Approach ◽

Energy Management Strategy ◽

Dynamic Programming Approach ◽

Dynamic Measures

In spite of occasional criticism they have attracted, hybrid vehicles (HVs) have been warmly welcomed by industry and academia alike. The key advantages of an HV, including fuel economy and environment friendliness, however, depend greatly on its energy management strategy and the way its design parameters are “tuned.” The optimal design and sizing of the HV remain a challenge for the engineering community, due to the variety of criteria and especially dynamic measures related to nature of its working conditions. This paper proposes an optimal design scheme that begins with presenting an energy management strategy based on minimum fuel consumption in finite driving cycle horizon. The strategy utilizes a dynamic programming approach and is consistent with charge sustenance. The sensitivity of the vehicle’s performance metrics to multiple design parameters is then studied using a design of experiments (DOE) methodology. The proposed scheme provides the designer with a reliable tool for investigating various design scenarios and achieving the optimal one.

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