scholarly journals Economic growth and unemployment linkage in a developing economy: a gender and age classification perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 527-538
Author(s):  
Ebere Ume Kalu ◽  
Chinwe Achike ◽  
Ann Ogbo ◽  
Wilfred Ukpere
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Bound Test

This paper examined the growth and unemployment linkage from a gender-classification perspective using the Nigerian economic environment. The autoregressive distributed lag model in its baseline form, the bound test, and error correction representation were used as the estimation approach. Annualized time series spanning 1981 to 2017 were used for the variables of interest. Generally, it was found that female unemployment has a positive significant influence on GDP growth rate in Nigeria, while youth unemployment negatively and significantly influences GDP. It was also found that male unemployment does not significantly affect the GDP growth rate in Nigeria. In the long run, the main variables influencing GDP growth rate within the context of this study include unemployment rate, ratio of labor force size to the national population, female unemployment rate, and youth unemployment rate. The error correction representation and the bound test estimates confirm that growth adjusts to the dynamics of the studied unemployment variables. The study advocates for an increase in government capital expenditure, as this is theoretically and practically known to create new jobs. This spending should go into real and core productive sectors that would create upstream and downstream jobs opportunities.

Estimating Barro misery index in democratic states with application in Albania: 2005 – 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Fejzi Kolaneci ◽  
Juxhen Duzha ◽  
Enxhi Lika
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Central Limit Theorem ◽  
Limit Theorem ◽  
Central Limit ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
Fair Game

In the present study we develop a statistical analysis of the Barro misery index and its components in contemporary democratic states with application in Republic of Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014. BMI is calculated by the formula: BMI = ? + u – GPD + i, where BMI denotes quarterly Barro misery index, ? denotes quarterly inflation rate, u denotes quarterly unemployment rate, GDP denotes quarterly real GDP growth rate, i denotes nominal long-term interest rate. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is a fundamental theorem of Modern Probability Theory “Fair game” and “Effective market in week sense” are important concepts of Macroeconomics. Some results of the study include : Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly inflation rates in Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014 at the confidence 99. 9%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 98. 8%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is not effective at the confidence 97. 5% Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly unemployment rates in Albania during the specified period at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is not effective at the confidence 99. 9% The official data of the quarterly GDP growth rate for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 77. 1%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 86. 4%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 99. 9%. The official data of the quarterly Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 96. 1%. The Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 84. 8%. The Barro misery index process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 63. 7%.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Instability and Long-Run Inequality of Workers’ Earnings in Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles M. Beach ◽  
Ross Finnie ◽  
David Gray
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Earnings Inequality ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Earnings Instability ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the variability of workers’ earnings in Canada over the period 1982‑1997. Using a large panel of tax file data, we decompose total variation in earnings across workers and time into a long-run inequality component between workers and an average earnings instability component over time for workers. We find an increase in earnings variability between 1982‑89 and 1990‑97 that is largely confined to men and largely driven by widening long-run earnings inequality. Second, the pattern of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects on these variance components is not consistent with conventional explanations and is suggestive of an alternative paradigm of how economic growth over this period widens long-run earnings inequality. Third, when unemployment rate and GDP growth rate effects are considered jointly, macroeconomic improvement is found to reduce the overall variability of earnings as the reduction in earnings instability outweighs the widening of long-run earnings inequality.

scholarly journals Examining the Relationship of Corruption with Economic Growth, Poverty and Gender Inequality Albanian Case

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 192
Author(s):  
Jonada Tafa
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita

This thesis examines the relationship of corruption with economic growth, poverty and gender inequality in Albania. Albania is a developing country with a GDP growth rate of 1.6% (World Bank, 2012) and income inequality is a serious problem that government has to deal with. Regarding gender discrimination a lot of progress is made. The current government counts six female ministers in its body. Corruption in Albania is a widespread phenomenon and is found almost in every sector of life. TI CPI index ranks Albania in the 116 place out of 177 countries observed. To study this relationship a multiple regression analysis is conducted. Data for this analysis correspond to years 2000 to 2012 and is accessed from World Bank database. in this analysis CC from World Bank is the dependent variable, while FDI, GDP growth rate, GNI per Capita, Unemployment Rate, Proportion of Women in Parliamentary Positions and Women's share in Labor Force Participation Rate are the explanatory variables. The first two variables are used as indicators of economic growth. GNI per capita and Unemployment rate account for poverty, while the last two variables account for gender inequality. The results have shown that when the level of FDIs in Albania is increased government performance in control of corruption is improved. From the analysis it is understood that a decrease in unemployment rate would increase government performance in control of corruption. The results of the analysis showed that when unemployment rate increase, CC decreases. Regarding the link of corruption with GDP growth rate and GNI per capita, an inverse relationship is observed. With an increase in either GDP growth rate or GNI per capita, CC will decrease. Even the relationship with number of women in parliament and their share in labor force participation rate with corruption resulted to be negative. An increase in either proportion of women in parliamentary positions or share of them in labor force participation rate has shown to worsen government performance in control of corruption.

Estimating Barro misery index in democratic states with application in Albania: 2005 – 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Fejzi Kolaneci ◽  
Juxhen Duzha ◽  
Enxhi Lika
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Central Limit Theorem ◽  
Limit Theorem ◽  
Central Limit ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
Fair Game

In the present study we develop a statistical analysis of the Barro misery index and its components in contemporary democratic states with application in Republic of Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014. BMI is calculated by the formula: BMI = ? + u – GPD + i, where BMI denotes quarterly Barro misery index, ? denotes quarterly inflation rate, u denotes quarterly unemployment rate, GDP denotes quarterly real GDP growth rate, i denotes nominal long-term interest rate. Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is a fundamental theorem of Modern Probability Theory “Fair game” and “Effective market in week sense” are important concepts of Macroeconomics. Some results of the study include : Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly inflation rates in Albania during the period January 2005- December 2014 at the confidence 99. 9%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 98. 8%. The inflation process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly inflation rate, is not effective at the confidence 97. 5% Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem is not valid for quarterly unemployment rates in Albania during the specified period at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is an unfair game at the confidence 99. 9%. The unemployment process in Albania during the specified period, related to the quarterly unemployment rate, is not effective at the confidence 99. 9% The official data of the quarterly GDP growth rate for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 77. 1%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 86. 4%. The GDP growth rate process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 99. 9%. The official data of the quarterly Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period contradict Kolmogorov’s Central Limit Theorem at the confidence 96. 1%. The Barro misery index for Albania during the specified period is a fair game at the confidence 84. 8%. The Barro misery index process for Albania during the specified period is not effective at the confidence 63. 7%.

Youth employment in Ghana: economic and social development policies perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-427
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Tetteh Jumpah ◽  
Richard Ampadu-Ameyaw ◽  
Johnny Owusu-Arthur
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Youth Employment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Development Outcomes

PurposeCreating employment opportunities for the youth remains a dilemma for policymakers. In many cases, policies and programmes to tackle youth unemployment have produced little results, because such initiatives have failed to consider some fundamental inputs. In Ghana, youth unemployment rate has doubled or more than doubled the national average unemployment rate in recent years. The current study, therefore, examines how policies in the past two decades have affected youth unemployment rate and other development outcomes.Design/methodology/approachThe study reviewed national economic development policy documents from 1996 to 2017 and other relevant policies aimed at creating employment opportunities for the youth, applying the content analysis procedure. Four main policy documents were reviewed in this regard. Data from secondary sources including International Labour Organisation (ILO), World Bank (WB), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) were analysed to examine the trends in youth unemployment rate, human development index and GDP growth rate in Ghana over the years. There were also formal and informal consultations with youth and development practitioners.FindingsThe results of the study show that policies that promote general growth in the economy reduce youth unemployment, while continuation of existing youth programmes, expansion, as well as addition of new ones by new governments reduces youth unemployment rate. In particular, GDP growth and youth unemployment rate trend in opposite direction; periods of increased growth have reduced youth unemployment rate and vice versa. The period of Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda I & II witnessed better reduction (5.7%) in youth unemployment rate than any of the policy periods. This was not sustained, and despite the current youth employment initiatives, unemployment among young people still remained higher than the national average.Research limitations/implicationsThe study provides relevant information on how development policies and programmes affect youth unemployment rate over time. In as much as it is not the interest of the study, the study stops short of empirical estimation to determine the level of GDP growth rate that can reduce a particular level of youth unemployment, which is a case for further research. Nevertheless, the outcome of the study reflects the data and methodology used.Originality/valueTo the best of the knowledge of the authors, this is a first study in Ghana that has attempted to directly link development outcomes such as youth unemployment to national economic development policies, although there are studies that have analysed the policy gaps and implementation challenges. This paper, therefore, bridges the knowledge of how development policies affect youth employment opportunities, particularly for Ghana.

scholarly journals Validity of Okun's law in Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-133
Author(s):  
Perenparaj Nadeshan ◽  
Gnanachandran Gnanachandran
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
The Relationship

The main goal of our research is to find out a relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka according to Okun’s law and to know whether it can still be used as the best rule of thumb. This empirical analysis has employed the difference model, dynamic model, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to validate the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth suggested by Okun's Law. The study is based on Quarterly data from 2004 Q1 to 2019 Q4. The results obtained through the application of varies econometric techniques such as Ordinary least square (OLS), Engel-Granger approach and cointegration procedure. The study finds that, Okun’s law is supported only by the cointegration analysis as expected by the Okun’s law in Sri Lanka. However, all other versions were reported negative Okun’s law coefficient signs while these results are not statistically significant. Overall this study is not able to found enough evidence to prove the inverse relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate in short run and able to found that Okun’s law can still be used as the best rule of thumb to describe the relationship between the unemployment and GDP growth in long term in Sri Lanka.

scholarly journals Public Education Funding and Economic Growth IN Nigeria; ARDL-VECM and Causal Inference Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Eugene Iheanacho ◽  
Chuks Nwaogwugwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Education Funding ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bound Test

Considering the enormous impact of poor standard of educational system in Nigeria over the years, the study investigated the effects of public education funding on economic growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2019. The paper used secondary data sourced from both Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank’s Development Indicators 2019. The paper employed Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag co-integration, Error correction mechanism and granger-causality tests as technique for data analysis. The ARDL bound test co-integration results revealed that RRETE, RCETE and Inflation have positive relationship with Economic growth. However, RETE, SEDU and PRI have indirect influence on Economic growth in Nigeria. Statistically, only RRETE has a long run causal effect on economic growth. ARDL Error Correction Regression output showed that RETE and RCETE are significant at 10% level while PRI is significant at 5% level this indicates the existence of short run causal relationship with the establishment of ECM long run equilibrium adjustment speed. The causal results revealed unidirectional inference between SEDU and RETE, PRI and RETE, PRI and RRETE with no feedback effect. Therefore, the study recommended educational funding targeted at secondary and primary education system in order to acquire productive skills and knowledge to stimulate economic growth and development in Nigeria. There is need to meet the UNESCO funding ratio for both recurrent and capital expenditure on education sector.

Determinants of presidential approval ratings: Cross-country analyses with reference to Latin America

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-267
Author(s):  
Ji Won Jung ◽  
Jinhwan Oh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Presidential Popularity

Despite a conventional belief that prosperity boosts presidential popularity, research on the effect of economic and political factors on presidential popularity shows wide variation. What are the main contributing factors when people evaluate their political leaders? How do economic conditions and perception of corruption influence people’s evaluations of their political leaders? Using comprehensive, up-to-date panel data covering 20 countries, mostly from Latin America, and also including South Korea and the United States, from 1988 to 2016, this study shows that the effect of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and unemployment rate are strong throughout the period considered. From the year 2000, inflation and perception of corruption become significant. In highly corrupt countries, however, the significance of corruption becomes more salient, together with GDP growth rate and unemployment rate, as citizens of these countries begin to evaluate their leaders in terms of their determination to address these problems. In countries with low approval ratings, voters generally weigh GDP growth rate more heavily.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iulia Andreea Bucur ◽  
Simona Elena Dragomirescu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Rate Fluctuation

This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

scholarly journals Stress Testing of Banking Systems: an examination against the Shocks of Macroeconomic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (SPE1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamiar Askari ◽  
Fatemeh Sarraf ◽  
Roya Darabi ◽  
Fatemeh Zandi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Default Rates

In the past years, overdue due receivables of the banks have increased in an unprecedented way compared to all the facilities granted in Iran’s banking network, showing the not very acceptable quality of bank assets that decrease the bank credit and make them financially unstable. The macroeconomic variables in this article are as follow: GDP growth rate, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, government debt. The decrease in this amount of arrears shows the ability of banks to maintain their resources. At this research, after identifying the macroeconomic variables affecting the default of banks using the stress test and applying one standard deviation with the help of the historical scenario, the study examined the banks’ resilience to the shocks of these variables from 2006 to 2019. The results indicated that the shock of the economic growth rate had the greatest effect. In other words, the decrease in the economic growth rate had the greatest effect on the increase of borrowers’ default rates. In addition to this, shocks of economic growth and government debt have highly effect on the borrowers’ default rates and inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and exchange rate have a significant impact upon borrowers’ default rates.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document