scholarly journals A methodology for probabilistic real-time forecasting – an urban case study

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 751-762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeanne-Rose René ◽  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Ole Mark
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Modelling Uncertainty ◽  
Nwp Model

The phenomenon of urban flooding due to rainfall exceeding the design capacity of drainage systems is a global problem and can have significant economic and social consequences. The complex nature of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has facilitated a need to model and manage uncertainty. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for modelling uncertainty from single-valued QPFs at different forecast lead times. The uncertainty models in the form of probability distributions of rainfall forecasts combined with a sewer model is an important advancement in real-time forecasting at the urban scale. The methodological approach utilized in this paper involves a retrospective comparison between historical forecasted rainfall from a NWP model and observed rainfall from rain gauges from which conditional probability distributions of rainfall forecasts are derived. Two different sampling methods, respectively, a direct rainfall quantile approach and the Latin hypercube sampling-based method were used to determine the uncertainty in forecasted variables (water level, volume) for a test urban area, the city of Aarhus. The results show the potential for applying probabilistic rainfall forecasts and their subsequent use in urban drainage forecasting for estimation of prediction uncertainty.

scholarly journals Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brožková ◽  
M. Derková ◽  
M. Belluš ◽  
F. Farda
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Real Time Mode ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

scholarly journals Use of a genetic algorithm to optimize a NumericalWeather Prediction system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.L Houtekamer ◽  
Bin He ◽  
Dominik Jacques ◽  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan ◽  
Leo Separovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithm ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
The Many ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Continuous Range

AbstractAn important step in an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm is the integration of an ensemble of short-range forecasts with a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. A multi-physics approach is used in the Canadian global EnKF system. This paper explores whether the many integrations with different versions of the model physics can be used to obtain more accurate and more reliable probability distributions for the model parameters. Some model parameters have a continuous range of possible values. Other parameters are categorical and act as switches between different parametrizations. In an evolutionary algorithm, the member configurations that contribute most to the quality of the ensemble are duplicated, while adding a small perturbation, at the expense of configurations that perform poorly. The evolutionary algorithm is being used in the migration of the EnKF to a new version of the Canadian NWP model with upgraded physics. The quality of configurations is measured with both a deterministic and an ensemble score, using the observations assimilated in the EnKF system. When using the ensemble score in the evaluation, the algorithm is shown to be able to converge to non-Gaussian distributions. However, for several model parameters, there is not enough information to arrive at improved distributions. The optimized system features slight reductions in biases for radiance measurements that are sensitive to humidity. Modest improvements are also seen in medium-range ensemble forecasts.

Real-Time Water Vapor Maps from a GPS Surface Network: Construction, Validation, and Applications

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1302-1316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siebren de Haan ◽  
Iwan Holleman ◽  
Albert A. M. Holtslag
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Step Method ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Surface Network ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Additional Value

Abstract In this paper the construction of real-time integrated water vapor (IWV) maps from a surface network of global positioning system (GPS) receivers is presented. The IWV maps are constructed using a two-dimensional variational technique with a persistence background that is 15 min old. The background error covariances are determined using a novel two-step method, which is based on the Hollingsworth–Lonnberg method. The quality of these maps is assessed by comparison with radiosonde observations and IWV maps from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The analyzed GPS IWV maps have no bias against radiosonde observations and a small bias against NWP analysis and forecasts up to 9 h. The standard deviation with radiosonde observations is around 2 kg m−2, and the standard deviation with NWP increases with increasing forecast length (from 2 kg m−2 for the NWP analysis to 4 kg m−2 for a forecast length of 48 h). To illustrate the additional value of these real-time products for nowcasting, three thunderstorm cases are discussed. The constructed GPS IWV maps are combined with data from the weather radar, a lightning detection network, and surface wind observations. All cases show that the location of developing thunderstorms can be identified 2 h prior to initiation in the convergence of moist air.

scholarly journals Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-380 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. T. Gouweleeuw ◽  
J. Thielen ◽  
G. Franchello ◽  
A. P. J. De Roo ◽  
R. Buizza
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Techniques ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.

scholarly journals Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings

Ocean Science ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Brožková ◽  
M. Derková ◽  
M. Belluš ◽  
A. Farda
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Forcing ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Real Time Mode ◽  
Nwp Model

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

scholarly journals A Hybrid NWP–Analog Ensemble

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (3) ◽  
pp. 897-911 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Anthony Eckel ◽  
Luca Delle Monache
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
Dependent Error

Abstract An analog ensemble (AnEn) is constructed by first matching up the current forecast from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with similar past forecasts. The verifying observation from each match is then used as an ensemble member. For at least some applications, the advantages of AnEn over an NWP ensemble (multiple real-time model runs) may include higher efficiency, avoidance of initial condition and model perturbation challenges, and little or no need for postprocessing calibration. While AnEn can capture flow-dependent error growth, it may miss aspects of error growth that can be represented dynamically by the multiple real-time model runs of an NWP ensemble. To combine the strengths of the AnEn and NWP ensemble approaches, a hybrid ensemble (HyEn) is constructed by finding m analogs for each member of a small n-member NWP ensemble, to produce a total of m × n members. Forecast skill is compared between the AnEn, HyEn, and an NWP ensemble calibrated using logistic regression. The HyEn outperforms the other approaches for probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts yet underperforms for 10-m wind speed. The mixed results reveal a dependence on the intrinsic skill of the NWP members employed. In this study, the NWP ensemble is underspread for both 2-m temperature and 10-m winds, yet displays some ability to represent flow-dependent error for the former and not the latter. Thus, the HyEn is a promising approach for efficient generation of high-quality probabilistic forecasts, but requires use of a small, and at least partially functional, NWP ensemble.

scholarly journals HGPT2: An ERA5-Based Global Model to Estimate Relative Humidity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2179
Author(s):  
Pedro Mateus ◽  
Virgílio B. Mendes ◽  
Sandra M. Plecha
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Precipitable Water Vapor ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite Systems ◽  
International Gnss Service ◽  
Weighted Mean Temperature

The neutral atmospheric delay is one of the major error sources in Space Geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and its modeling for high accuracy applications can be challenging. Improving the modeling of the atmospheric delays (hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic) also leads to a more accurate and precise precipitable water vapor estimation (PWV), mostly in real-time applications, where models play an important role, since numerical weather prediction models cannot be used for real-time processing or forecasting. This study developed an improved version of the Hourly Global Pressure and Temperature (HGPT) model, the HGPT2. It is based on 20 years of ERA5 reanalysis data at full spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal resolution (1-h). Apart from surface air temperature, surface pressure, zenith hydrostatic delay, and weighted mean temperature, the updated model also provides information regarding the relative humidity, zenith non-hydrostatic delay, and precipitable water vapor. The HGPT2 is based on the time-segmentation concept and uses the annual, semi-annual, and quarterly periodicities to calculate the relative humidity anywhere on the Earth’s surface. Data from 282 moisture sensors located close to GNSS stations during 1 year (2020) were used to assess the model coefficients. The HGPT2 meteorological parameters were used to process 35 GNSS sites belonging to the International GNSS Service (IGS) using the GAMIT/GLOBK software package. Results show a decreased root-mean-square error (RMSE) and bias values relative to the most used zenith delay models, with a significant impact on the height component. The HGPT2 was developed to be applied in the most diverse areas that can significantly benefit from an ERA5 full-resolution model.

Analysis of Inventory Management in Reverse Supply Chain Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Badr O. Johar ◽  
Surendra M. Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Inventory Management ◽  
Reverse Logistics ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic Programming ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Financial Burden ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic

Reverse logistics is a critical topic that has captured the attention of government, private entities and researchers in recent years. This increase in the concern was driven by current set of government regulations, increase of public awareness, and the attractive economic opportunities. Also, environmentalists have always demanded Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to be more involved and be responsible of their products at the end of its life cycle. However, the uncertainty in quality of items returned, and its quantity discourage OEMs from participating in such programs. Because of the unique problems associated and the complex nature of the reverse logistics activities, numerous studies have been carried out in this field. One of those crucial areas is inventory management of End-of-Life (EOL) products. The take back program could possibly bring financial burden to OEM if it is not managed well. Thus, an efficient yet cost effective system should be implemented to appropriately manage the overwhelming number of returns. Previously, we have analyzed the problem based on the assumption that the number of core products returned and disassembled parts and subassemblies are known in advance. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach where different quality levels of for every component disassembled are considered and different probabilities of these qualities given the quality of the returned product. The model utilizes a multi-period stochastic dynamic programming in a disassembly line context to solve the problem, and generate the best option that will maximize the system total profit. A numerical example is given to illustrate the approach. Finally, directions for future research are suggested.

Real-time and near real-time ZTD from a local network of low-cost dual-frequency GNSS receivers.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Hadas ◽  
Grzegorz Marut ◽  
Jan Kapłon ◽  
Witold Rohm
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Local Network ◽  
System Component ◽  
Dual Frequency ◽  
Lower Accuracy ◽  
Gnss Receivers ◽  
The Impact

<p>The dynamics of water vapor distribution in the troposphere, measured with Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), is a subject of weather research and climate studies. With GNSS, remote sensing of the troposphere in Europe is performed continuously and operationally under the E-GVAP (http://egvap.dmi.dk/) program with more than 2000 permanent stations. These data are one of the assimilation system component of mesoscale weather prediction models (10 km scale) for many nations across Europe. However, advancing precise local forecasts for severe weather requires high resolution models and observing system.   Further densification of the tracking network, e.g. in urban or mountain areas, will be costly when considering geodetic-grade equipment. However, the rapid development of GNSS-based applications results in a dynamic release of mass-market GNSS receivers. It has been demonstrated that post-processing of GPS-data from a dual-frequency low-cost receiver allows retrieving ZTD with high accuracy. Although low-cost receivers are a promising solution to the problem of densifying GNSS networks for water vapor monitoring, there are still some technological limitations and they require further development and calibration.</p><p>We have developed a low-cost GNSS station, dedicated to real-time GNSS meteorology, which provides GPS, GLONASS and Galileo dual-frequency observations either in RINEX v3.04 format or via RTCM v3.3 stream, with either Ethernet or GSM data transmission. The first two units are deployed in a close vicinity of permanent station WROC, which belongs to the International GNSS Service (IGS) network. Therefore, we compare results from real-time and near real-time processing of GNSS observations from a low-cost unit with IGS Final products. We also investigate the impact of replacing a standard patch antenna with an inexpensive survey-grade antenna. Finally, we deploy a local network of low-cost receivers in and around the city of Wroclaw, Poland, in order to analyze the dynamics of troposphere delay at a very high spatial resolution.</p><p>As a measure of accuracy, we use the standard deviation of ZTD differences between estimated ZTD and IGS Final product. For the near real-time mode, that accuracy is 5 mm and 6 mm, for single- (L1) and dual-frequency (L1/L5,E5b) solution, respectively. Lower accuracy of the dual-frequency relative solution we justify by the missing antenna phase center correction model for L5 and E5b frequencies. With the real-time Precise Point Positioning technique, we estimate ZTD with the accuracy of 7.5 – 8.6 mm. After antenna replacement, the accuracy is improved almost by a factor of 2 (to 4.1 mm), which is close to the 3.1 mm accuracy which we obtain in real-time using data from the WROC station.</p>

UTCI as the NWP model ALADIN (CHMI) output – first experiences

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-249
Author(s):  
Martin Novák
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Basic Information ◽  
Universal Thermal Climate Index ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Weather Forecasters ◽  
Thermal Climate ◽  
Nwp Model

The article includes a summary of basic information about the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) calculation by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Examples of operational outputs for weather forecasters in the CHMI are shown in the first part of this work. The second part includes results of a comparison of computed UTCI values by ALADIN for selected place with UTCI values computed from real measured meteorological data from the same place.

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