scholarly journals Modelling river runoff and estimating its weather-related uncertainty for 11 large-scale rivers located in different regions of the globe

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1072-1087 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeugeniy M. Gusev ◽  
Olga N. Nasonova ◽  
Evgeny E. Kovalev ◽  
Georgii V. Aizel
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Natural Conditions

Abstract In order to study the possibility of reproducing river runoff with making use of the land surface model Soil Water–Atmosphere–Plants (SWAP) and information based on global data sets 11 river basins suggested within the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and located in various regions of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions were used. Schematization of each basin as a set of 0.5° × 0.5° computational grid cells connected by a river network was carried out. Input data including atmospheric forcing data and land surface parameters based, respectively, on the global WATCH and ECOCLIMAP data sets were prepared for each grid cell. Simulations of river runoff performed by SWAP with a priori input data showed poor agreement with observations. Optimization of a number of model parameters substantially improved the results. The obtained results confirm the universal character of SWAP. Natural uncertainty of river runoff caused by weather noise was estimated and analysed. It can be treated as the lowest limit of predictability of river runoff. It was shown that differences in runoff uncertainties obtained for different rivers depend greatly on natural conditions of a river basin, in particular, on the ratio of deterministic and random components of the river runoff.

scholarly journals Multi-site evaluation of the JULES land surface model using global and local data

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Slevin ◽  
S. F. B. Tett ◽  
M. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Phenology Model ◽  
Global Data

Abstract. This study evaluates the ability of the JULES land surface model (LSM) to simulate photosynthesis using local and global data sets at 12 FLUXNET sites. Model parameters include site-specific (local) values for each flux tower site and the default parameters used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) climate model. Firstly, gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates from driving JULES with data derived from local site measurements were compared to observations from the FLUXNET network. When using local data, the model is biased with total annual GPP underestimated by 16% across all sites compared to observations. Secondly, GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from global parameter and atmospheric reanalysis (on scales of 100 km or so) were compared to FLUXNET observations. It was found that model performance decreases further, with total annual GPP underestimated by 30% across all sites compared to observations. When JULES was driven using local parameters and global meteorological data, it was shown that global data could be used in place of FLUXNET data with a 7% reduction in total annual simulated GPP. Thirdly, the global meteorological data sets, WFDEI and PRINCETON, were compared to local data to find that the WFDEI data set more closely matches the local meteorological measurements (FLUXNET). Finally, the JULES phenology model was tested by comparing results from simulations using the default phenology model to those forced with the remote sensing product MODIS leaf area index (LAI). Forcing the model with daily satellite LAI results in only small improvements in predicted GPP at a small number of sites, compared to using the default phenology model.

scholarly journals Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Didier M. Roche ◽  
Christophe Dumas ◽  
Didier Paillard
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. In this paper, we present the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM v1.1. We describe the followed methodology to generate temperature and precipitation fields on a 40 km × 40 km Cartesian grid of the Northern Hemisphere from the T21 native atmospheric model grid. Our scheme is non grid-specific and conserves energy and moisture. We show that we are able to generate a high resolution field which presents a spatial variability in better agreement with the observations compared to the standard model. Whilst the large-scale model biases are not corrected, for selected model parameters, the downscaling can induce a better overall performance compared to the standard version on both the high-resolution grid and on the native grid. Foreseen applications of this new model feature includes ice sheet model coupling and high-resolution land surface model.

scholarly journals Development and evaluation of 0.05° terrestrial water storage estimates using Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and assimilation of GRACE data

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 4185-4208
Author(s):  
Natthachet Tangdamrongsub ◽  
Michael F. Jasinski ◽  
Peter J. Shellito
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Land Exchange

Abstract. Accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) at a high spatiotemporal resolution is important for reliable assessments of regional water resources and climate variability. Individual components of TWS include soil moisture, snow, groundwater, and canopy storage and can be estimated from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model. The spatial resolution of CABLE is currently limited to 0.5∘ by the resolution of soil and vegetation data sets that underlie model parameterizations, posing a challenge to using CABLE for hydrological applications at a local scale. This study aims to improve the spatial detail (from 0.5 to 0.05∘) and time span (1981–2012) of CABLE TWS estimates using rederived model parameters and high-resolution meteorological forcing. In addition, TWS observations derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are assimilated into CABLE to improve TWS accuracy. The success of the approach is demonstrated in Australia, where multiple ground observation networks are available for validation. The evaluation process is conducted using four different case studies that employ different model spatial resolutions and include or omit GRACE data assimilation (DA). We find that the CABLE 0.05∘ developed here improves TWS estimates in terms of accuracy, spatial resolution, and long-term water resource assessment reliability. The inclusion of GRACE DA increases the accuracy of groundwater storage (GWS) estimates and has little impact on surface soil moisture or evapotranspiration. Using improved model parameters and improved state estimations (via GRACE DA) together is recommended to achieve the best GWS accuracy. The workflow elaborated on in this paper relies only on publicly accessible global data sets, allowing the reproduction of the 0.05∘ TWS estimates in any study region.

L'apport de la télédétection spatiale à la modélisation des surfaces continentales

2020 ◽  
pp. 052
Author(s):  
Jean-Christophe Calvet ◽  
Jean-Louis Champeaux
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Data ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Static Model ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters

Cet article présente les différentes étapes des développements réalisés au CNRM des années 1990 à nos jours pour spatialiser à diverses échelles les simulations du modèle Isba des surfaces terrestres. Une attention particulière est portée sur l'intégration, dans le modèle, de données satellitaires permettant de caractériser la végétation. Deux façons complémentaires d'introduire de l'information géographique dans Isba sont présentées : cartographie de paramètres statiques et intégration au fil de l'eau dans le modèle de variables observables depuis l'espace. This paper presents successive steps in developments made at CNRM from the 1990s to the present-day in order to spatialize the simulations of the Isba land surface model at various scales. The focus is on the integration in the model of satellite data informative about vegetation. Two complementary ways to integrate geographic information in Isba are presented: mapping of static model parameters and sequential assimilation of variables observable from space.

scholarly journals Large-scale groundwater modeling using global datasets: a test case for the Rhine-Meuse basin

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2555-2608 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Sutanudjaja ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
S. M. de Jong ◽  
F. C. van Geer ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Groundwater Modeling ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Groundwater Model ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Global Datasets

Abstract. Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution) to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Although the method that we used to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater model is considered as an offline-coupling procedure (i.e. the simulations of both models were performed separately), results are promising. The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reproduce the observed groundwater head time series reasonably well. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the current offline-coupling technique simplifies dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale.

The Role of Different Sources of Uncertainty in Data Assimilation with Coupled Land Surface - Subsurface Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Emilio Sanchez-Leon ◽  
Natascha Brandhorst ◽  
Bastian Waldowski ◽  
Ching Pui Hung ◽  
Insa Neuweiler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plant Physiology ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Open Loop ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty

<p>The success of data assimilation systems strongly depends on the suitability of the generated ensembles. While in theory data assimilation should correct the states of an ensemble of models, especially if model parameters are included in the update, its effectiveness will depend on many factors, such as ensemble size, ensemble spread, and the proximity of the prior ensemble simulations to the data. In a previous study, we generated an ensemble-based data-assimilation framework to update model states and parameters of a coupled land surface-subsurface model. As simulation system we used the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform TerrSysMP, with the community land-surface model (CLM) coupled to the subsurface model Parflow. In this work, we used the previously generated ensemble to assess the effect of uncertain input forcings (i.e. precipitation), unknown subsurface parameterization, and/or plant physiology in data assimilation. The model domain covers a rectangular area of 1×5km<sup>2</sup>, with a uniform depth of 50m. The subsurface material is divided into four units, and the top soil layers consist of three different soil types with different vegetation. Streams are defined along three of the four boundaries of the domain. For data assimilation, we used the TerrsysMP PDAF framework. We defined a series of data assimilation experiments in which sources of uncertainty were considered individually, and all additional settings of the ensemble members matched those of the reference. To evaluate the effect of all sources of uncertainty combined, we designed an additional test in which the input forcings, subsurface parameters, and the leaf area index of the ensemble were all perturbed. In all these tests, the reference model had homogenous subsurface units and the same grid resolution as all models of the ensemble. We used point measurements of soil moisture in all data assimilation experiments. We concluded that precipitation dominates the dynamics of the simulations, and perturbing the precipitation fields for the ensemble have a major impact in the performance of the assimilation. Still, considerable improvements are observed compared to open-loop simulations. In contrast, the effect of variable plant physiology was minimal, with no visible improvement in relevant fluxes such as evapotranspiration. As expected, improved ensemble predictions are propagated longer in time when parameters are included in the update.</p>

Improving soil moisture estimation through a dual-cycle assimilation strategy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxin Tian ◽  
Jun Qin ◽  
Kun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Dual Cycle ◽  
Moisture Estimation

<p>Soil moisture plays a key role in land surface processes. Both remote sensing and model simulation have their respective limitations in the estimation of soil moisture on a large spatial scale. Data assimilation is a promising way to merge remote sensing observation and land surface model (LSM), thus having a potential to acquire more accurate soil moisture. Two mainstream assimilation algorithms (variational-based and sequential-based) both need model and observation uncertainties due to their great impact on assimilation results. Besides, as far as land surface models are concerned, model parameters have a significant implication for simulation. However, how to specify these two uncertainties and parameters has been confusing for a long time. A dual-cycle assimilation algorithm, which consists of two cycles, is proposed for addressing the above issue. In the outer cycle, a cost function is constructed and minimized to estimate model parameters and uncertainties in both model and observation. In the inner cycle, a sequentially based filtering method is implemented to estimate soil moisture with the parameters and uncertainties estimated in the outer cycle. For the illustration of the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer of earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperatures are assimilated into land surface model with a radiative transfer model as the observation operator in three experimental fields, including Naqu and Ngari on the Tibetan Plateau, and Coordinate Enhanced Observing (CEOP) reference site on Mongolia. The results indicate that the assimilation algorithm can significantly improve soil moisture estimation.</p>

Global evaluation of the nutrient enabled version of land surface model ORCHIDEE-CNP (v1.2)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Sun ◽  
Daniel S Goll ◽  
Jinfeng Chang ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Betrand Guenet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
P Uptake ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Global Evaluation ◽  
Total N ◽  
P Fluxes

<p>Future land carbon (C) uptake under climate changes and rising atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> is influenced by nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) constraints. A few existing land surface models (LSMs) account for both N and P dynamics, but lack comprehensive evaluation. This will lead to large uncertainty in estimating the P effect on terrestrial C cycles. With the increasing number of measurements and data-driven products for N- and P- related variables, comprehensive model evaluations on large scale is becoming feasible.</p><p>In this study, we evaluated the performance of ORCHIDEE-CNP (v1.2) which explicitly simulates N and P cycles in plant and soil, in four aspects: 1) terrestrial C fluxes, 2) N and P fluxes and budget, 3) leaf and soil stoichiometry and 4) resource use efficiencies. We found that ORCHIDEE-CNP improves the simulation of the magnitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) due to more realistic strength of the CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization effect of GPP than the without-nutrient-version ORCHIDEE. However, ORCHIDEE-CNP cannot capture the positive and increasing C sink in North Hemisphere over past decades, which is mainly due to that a large fraction of N and P ‘locked’ in soil organic matter cannot be re-allocated into vegetation and leads to a strong N and P limitation on plant growth. ORCHIDEE-CNP generally simulates comparable global total N and P fluxes (e.g. N biofixation, P weathering, N and P uptake etc.) for both natural and agricultural biomes. Overall, ORCHIDEE-CNP doesn’t performance worse in C fluxes than ORCHIDEE, and gives reasonable N and P cycles, which is acceptable in simulating the coupling relationships between C, N and P cycles can be used to explore the nutrient limitations on land C sink from present to the future. </p>

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