Hydrological projections based on the coupled hydrological–hydraulic modeling in the complex river network region: a case study in the Taihu basin, China

Water resources in the Taihu basin, China, are not only facing the effects of a changing climate but also consequences of an intensive urbanization process with the abandonment of rural activities and the resulting changes in land use/land-cover. In the present work, the impact of climate change and urbanization on hydrological processes was assessed using an integrated modeling system, coupling the distributed hydrological model variable infiltration capacity and the hydraulic model ISIS, while future climate scenarios were projected using the regional climate model providing regional climate for impact studies. Results show a significant increasing trend of impervious surface area, while other types of land cover exhibit decreasing trends in 2021–2050. Furthermore, mean annual runoff under different future climate scenarios will increase, especially during flood seasons, consistent with the changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for both spatial and temporal distribution. Maximum and mean flood water levels under two future scenarios will be higher than levels under the baseline scenario (1961–1990), and the return periods of storms resulting in the same flood water level will decrease significantly in comparison to the baseline scenario, implying more frequent occurrence of extreme floods in future. These results are significant to future flood control efforts and waterlog drainage planning in the Taihu basin.

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Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

Regional Environmental Change ◽

10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Susanne Rolinski ◽

Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽

Georg Guggenberger ◽

Norbert Bischoff ◽

Irina Kurganova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Arable Land ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

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Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

Acta Scientiarum Technology ◽

10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.56026 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 43 ◽

pp. e56026

Author(s):

Gabriela Leite Neves ◽

Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽

Maysa de Lima Leite ◽

Frederico Fabio Mauad

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Water Availability ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Climate Data ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

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Implementation of NEMO v4.0.1 as ocean component for the regional climate modeling framework

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21486 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Janna Abalichin ◽

Birte-Marie Ehlers ◽

Frank Janssen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Baltic Sea ◽

North Sea ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Modeling ◽

Water Levels ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

The Impact

The &#8216;German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change&#8217; (DAS) provides the political framework to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Germany. The associated &#8216;Adaption Action Plan&#8217; envisages the establishment of an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. This service is intended to make use of a regional climate modeling framework, with NEMO v4.0.(1) as the ocean component. The atmospheric component will be provided by the German Weather Service (either the current weather forecasting model ICON or COSMO will be used) and will be coupled to NEMO after testing and calibration of NEMO on the regional scale.The area of interest includes besides the North Sea and the Baltic Sea the entire North-West-Shelf to take into account cross-shelf transport, the water exchange between North Sea and Baltic Sea and the impact of North Atlantic weather systems on the internal dynamics of the seas. One focus area will be German Bight, well known for its large tidal flats, which make wetting & drying a desirable model feature, which will be tested in future. The used/implemented bathymetry includes the up to date measurements of the sea floor from the EMODNET network.To achieve a proper description of the dynamics in this region the model has to be calibrated with regard to the timing and amplitude of the water levels in the coastal waters, the water inflow through the Danish straits, the thermal stratification as well as the seasonality and thickness of the sea ice in the Northern Baltic Sea.These efforts are carried out in the pilot project &#8216;Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping&#8217; (ProWaS).

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Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

Canadian Journal of Plant Science ◽

10.4141/cjps2013-279 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 94 (2) ◽

pp. 213-222 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Qi Jing ◽

Gilles Bélanger ◽

Budong Qian ◽

Vern Baron

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Nutritive Value ◽

Climate Models ◽

Phleum Pratense ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

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Impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows in 134 catchments in the River Rhine basin using an ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-6807-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 6807-6845

Author(s):

M. C. Demirel ◽

M. J. Booij ◽

A. Y. Hoekstra

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Low Flow ◽

River Rhine ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Low Flows ◽

Current Climate ◽

The Future

Abstract. The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows are analysed for 134 sub-catchments covering the River Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch–German border. Three seasonality indices for low flows are estimated, namely seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and weighted persistence (WP). These indices are related to the discharge regime, timing and variability in timing of low flow events respectively. The three indices are estimated from: (1) observed low flows; (2) simulated low flows by the semi distributed HBV model using observed climate; (3) simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven climate scenarios for the current climate (1964–2007); (4) simulated low flows using simulated inputs from seven climate scenarios for the future climate (2063–2098) including different emission scenarios. These four cases are compared to assess the effects of the hydrological model, forcing by different climate models and different emission scenarios on the three indices. The seven climate scenarios are based on different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs), four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant differences are found between cases 1 and 2. For instance, the HBV model is prone to overestimate SR and to underestimate WP and simulates very late WMODs compared to the estimated WMODs using observed discharges. Comparing the results of cases 2 and 3, the smallest difference is found in the SR index, whereas large differences are found in the WMOD and WP indices for the current climate. Finally, comparing the results of cases 3 and 4, we found that SR has decreased substantially by 2063–2098 in all seven subbasins of the River Rhine. The lower values of SR for the future climate indicate a shift from winter low flows (SR > 1) to summer low flows (SR < 1) in the two Alpine subbasins. The WMODs of low flows tend to be earlier than for the current climate in all subbasins except for the Middle Rhine and Lower Rhine subbasins. The WP values are slightly larger, showing that the predictability of low flow events increases as the variability in timing decreases for the future climate. From comparison of the uncertainty sources evaluated in this study, it is obvious that the RCM/GCM uncertainty has the largest influence on the variability in timing of low flows for future climate.

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Vulnerability of Swiss lakes to climate change along an altitudinal gradient

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7954 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Love Råman Vinnå ◽

Iselin Medhaug ◽

Martin Schmid ◽

Damien Bouffard

Keyword(s):

Altitudinal Gradient ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Large Fraction ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Mountain Regions ◽

Lake Model ◽

Atmospheric Phenomena ◽

The Impact

Studies investigating the influence of 21st century climate warming on lakes along altitudinal gradients has been obscured by complex local atmospheric phenomena, insufficiently resolved by regional climate model grids in mountain regions. Here we used locally downscaled climate models to force the physical lake model Simstrat under three future climate scenarios to investigate the impact on 29 Swiss lakes, varying in size and located along an altitudinal gradient. Results predict significant changes linked to altitude in duration of ice-cover, and stratification. Lower and especially mid altitude lakes risk changes in mixing regimes. A large fraction of previously dimictic lakes shift to a monomictic regime under RCP8.5. Analysis further indicates that for many lakes climate related change can be limited by adhering to RCP2.6.

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Achieving Flood Reduction with Natural Water Retention Measures in Agricultural Catchments in Ireland

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13519 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Pia Laue ◽

Paul Quinn ◽

Mary Bourke ◽

Darragh Murphy ◽

Mark Wilkinson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Natural Water ◽

Water Retention ◽

Water Storage ◽

Sediment Traps ◽

Water Levels ◽

Storm Events ◽

Peak Reduction ◽

Flood Water ◽

The Impact

In recent decades, land-use and climate change&#160;have dramatically&#160;altered&#160;catchment runoff rates.&#160;For example, agriculture intensification has led to increased flood risks by decreasing&#160; soil permeability and reducing channel-floodplain&#160;connectivity. Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRM)&#160;is an approach that has been adopted European-wide for the attenuation of peak floods and the provision of wider ecosystem services. A reduction in peak flow is achieved&#160;by&#160;increasing&#160;water storage potential in the landscape and by modifying natural flow pathways. In agricultural&#160;areas (~70% of Irish land use), &#160;runoff attenuation features such as offline ponds, earthen bunds, sediment traps and leaky dams&#160;are frequently deployed natural&#160;retention measures.Despite the growing evidence across Europe of their&#160;efficacy for flood peak reduction, water quality enhancement and&#160;biodiversity on the local scale, NWRM features have not been&#160;adopted in Ireland as a flood mitigation approach. In order to build a case that will help address this, this presentation will detail a NWRM demonstrate site in Ballygow, Co. Wexford. &#160;The construction and instrumentation of a network of features developed at&#160;the&#160;field-scale (~1km2) is shown.&#160;This site is an&#160;intensive pasture, small-hold farm.&#160;We aim to quantify&#160;the effectiveness of&#160;these&#160;NWRM features to demonstrate their potential&#160;to&#160;attenuate flood peaks&#160;on agricultural areas using temporary storage, whilst minimising the impact on farming.The&#160;constructed&#160;measures&#160;consist of&#160;a&#160;flood swale that connects the channel to the floodplain&#160;during high flows, an&#160;earthen bund, an offline&#160;pond with a sediment trap,&#160;that can retain the water from the channel and contributing field&#160;slopes, for <12&#160;hours. On-site video footage and eyewitnesses confirm that&#160;the flood water flows along the field without draining back into the stream. At approximately 800m across the field, the water is retained temporarily, permitting water storage and the opportunity for suspended sediment to settle out of the water column. Flood water is returned to the channel via a perched 20 cm diameter pipe in the bund. Four&#160;automated water level&#160;recorders&#160;(In-Situ Rugged Troll 100) continuously&#160;monitor water levels&#160;in the stream&#160;and the offline pond at 5 min intervals. In addition,&#160;local&#160;rainfall&#160;(EML Event Logger)&#160;is&#160;monitored. These data are used to identify the hydrograph characteristics of&#160;several&#160;storm events&#160;and are used&#160;to determine the effectiveness of the NWRM structures for flood attenuation. The quantification of the&#160;effectiveness&#160;of NWRM features will use the observed time series combined with hydraulic and&#160;hydrological modelling.&#160;The&#160;quantitative evidence provided by our findings will contribute to&#160;establishing&#160;vital evidence for the implementation of local and national NWRM schemes in Ireland.

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Global protected area impacts

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2010.1713 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 278 (1712) ◽

pp. 1633-1638 ◽

Cited By ~ 220

Author(s):

Lucas N. Joppa ◽

Alexander Pfaff

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Protected Areas ◽

Protected Area ◽

Future Climate ◽

Conservation Priorities ◽

Climate Policies ◽

Natural Land ◽

The Impact ◽

Landscape Protection

Protected areas (PAs) dominate conservation efforts. They will probably play a role in future climate policies too, as global payments may reward local reductions of loss of natural land cover. We estimate the impact of PAs on natural land cover within each of 147 countries by comparing outcomes inside PAs with outcomes outside. We use ‘matching’ (or ‘apples to apples’) for land characteristics to control for the fact that PAs very often are non-randomly distributed across their national landscapes. Protection tends towards land that, if unprotected, is less likely than average to be cleared. For 75 per cent of countries, we find protection does reduce conversion of natural land cover. However, for approximately 80 per cent of countries, our global results also confirm (following smaller-scale studies) that controlling for land characteristics reduces estimated impact by half or more. This shows the importance of controlling for at least a few key land characteristics. Further, we show that impacts vary considerably within a country (i.e. across a landscape): protection achieves less on lands far from roads, far from cities and on steeper slopes. Thus, while planners are, of course, constrained by other conservation priorities and costs, they could target higher impacts to earn more global payments for reduced deforestation.

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Modeling the effects and feedbacks of irrigation on the regional climate in Northern Italy

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8913 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Christina Asmus ◽

Peter Hoffmann ◽

Diana Rechid ◽

Jürgen Böhner

Keyword(s):

Land Cover ◽

Land Surface ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Sensitivity Study ◽

Moist Convection ◽

Moisture Fluxes ◽

Spatiotemporal Behavior ◽

Italian Model ◽

The Impact

Large parts of the earth&#8217;s land surface are modified by humans. Since the land surface and the atmosphere are constantly in energy exchange and in interactions with each other, anthropogenic modifications of the land&#8217;s surface can lead to effects on the climate. The objective of this study is to quantify and investigate the effects and feedbacks of irrigation on the local to regional climate. Irrigation is a land use practice, which does not change the land cover type but changes the biophysical properties of the land&#8217;s surface and the soil and thus alters energy and moisture fluxes. These local to regional process responses, detectable in different meteorological variables, are investigated using the regional climate model REMO. High resolution simulations at convection permitting scales will be performed in order to particularly investigate irrigation effects on the spatiotemporal behavior of moist convection. Newly developed parameterizations of different types of irrigation are tested on the example of a northern Italian model domain, where cropland and rice paddies are the dominating land cover. The focus of the sensitivity study is on the impact of the parameterizations on the surface moisture and energy balance as well as on heavy rainfall events.

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