scholarly journals Response of runoff in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kebi Yang ◽  
Ting Chen ◽  
Tianqi Ao ◽  
Xu Zhang ◽  
Li Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Current Increase ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
June July ◽  
Water Assessment

Abstract Climate change affects water cycle in different regions. The response of annual runoff and seasonal distribution to climate change in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River during 2021–2050 was studied by coupling the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This model was driven by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River has a unique response to climate change. The maximum and minimum temperatures will increase with the increase in emissions, especially in December–January. The daily precipitation shows an upward trend, especially in July–August in the RCP4.5 scenario. The annual runoff shows an upward trend with the increase in emissions. Compared with the current increase of 13–26%, the most prominent period is November–April. Because the study area covers high mountains and gorge landforms, the altitude difference is great, and the influence of evapotranspiration and snow melting processes is more prominent, causing the monthly runoff to decrease in June–July with an increase in precipitation. From April to May, precipitation decreased while runoff increased.

scholarly journals SWAT-Based Runoff Simulation and Runoff Responses to Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Yellow River, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 509
Author(s):  
Jingwen Wu ◽  
Haiyan Zheng ◽  
Yang Xi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Slight Upward Trend ◽  
The Impact

Runoff in snowy alpine regions is sensitive to climate change in the context of global warming. Exploring the impact of climate change on the runoff in these regions is critical to understand the dynamics of the water cycle and for the improvement of water resources management. In this study, we analyzed the long-term variations in annual runoff in the headwaters region of the Yellow River (HRYR) (a typical snowy mountain region) during the period of 1956–2012. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with different elevation bands was employed to assess the performance of monthly runoff simulations, and then to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff. The results show that the observed runoff for the hydrological stations at lower relative elevations (i.e., Maqu and Tangnaihai stations) had a downward trend, with rates of 1.91 and 1.55 mm/10 years, while a slight upward trend with a rate of 0.26 mm/10 years was observed for the hydrological station at higher elevation (i.e., Huangheyan station). We also found that the inclusion of five elevation bands could lead to more accurate runoff estimates as compared to simulation without elevation bands at monthly time steps. In addition, the dominant cause of the runoff decline across the whole HRYR was precipitation (which explained 64.2% of the decrease), rather than temperature (25.93%).

Quantifying the magnitude of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff decline in Mian River Basin, China

2010 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 783-791 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Fan ◽  
Fei Tian ◽  
Yonghui Yang ◽  
Shumin Han ◽  
Guoyu Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
North China ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Driving Factor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

Runoff in North China has been dramatically declining in recent decades. Although climate change and human activity have been recognized as the primary driving factors, the magnitude of impact of each of the above factors on runoff decline is still not entirely clear. In this study, Mian River Basin (a watershed that is heavily influenced by human activity) was used as a proxy to quantify the contributions of human and climate to runoff decline in North China. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to isolate the possible impacts of man and climate. SWAT simulations suggest that while climate change accounts for only 23.89% of total decline in mean annual runoff, human activity accounts for the larger 76.11% in the basin. The gap between the simulated and measured runoff has been widening since 1978, which can only be explained in terms of increasing human activity in the region. Furthermore, comparisons of similar annual precipitation in 3 dry-years and 3 wet-years representing hydrological processes in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to isolate the magnitude of runoff decline under similar annual precipitations. The results clearly show that human activity, rather than climate, is the main driving factor of runoff decline in the basin.

scholarly journals Hydrologic evaluation and effects of climate change on the Nong Han Lake Basin, northeastern Thailand

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 992-1000
Author(s):  
Jirawat Supakosol ◽  
Kowit Boonrawd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Model Soil ◽  
Regional Climates ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Effective Water ◽  
Northeastern Thailand

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

scholarly journals Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Sitian Liu ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Se Spain ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
Water Assessment

Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.

scholarly journals A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7191-7229 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. N. Gosling ◽  
R. G. Taylor ◽  
N. W. Arnell ◽  
M. C. Todd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Structural Uncertainty ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However, they are relatively small in comparison to the range of projections across the seven GCMs. Hence, for the six catchments and seven GCMs we considered, climate model structural uncertainty is greater than the uncertainty associated with the type of hydrological model applied. Moreover, shifts in the seasonal cycle of runoff with climate change are represented similarly by both hydrological models, although for some catchments the monthly timing of high and low flows differs. This implies that for studies that seek to quantify and assess the role of climate model uncertainty on catchment-scale runoff, it may be equally as feasible to apply a GHM as it is to apply a CHM, especially when climate modelling uncertainty across the range of available GCMs is as large as it currently is. Whilst the GHM is able to represent the broad climate change signal that is represented by the CHMs, we find however, that for some catchments there are differences between GHMs and CHMs in mean annual runoff due to differences in potential evapotranspiration estimation methods, in the representation of the seasonality of runoff, and in the magnitude of changes in extreme (Q5, Q95) monthly runoff, all of which have implications for future water management issues.

scholarly journals EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW IN SREPOK WATERSHED

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Decrease ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, the author investigated the effects of climate change on streamflow in Srepok watershed. The climate change scenarios were built by downscaling method (delta change method) based on the outputs of MIROC 3.2 Hires GCM. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to investigate the impacts on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well. Their difference in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios was also investigated. Results indicated a 1.3-3.9oC increase in annual temperature and a -4.4 to -0.5% decreases in annual precipitation corresponded to a decrease in streamflow of about -7.6 to -2.8%. The large decrease in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Runoff sensitivity to climate and land-use changes: A case study in the Longtan basin, Southwestern China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guiyan Mo ◽  
Ya Huang ◽  
Qing Yang ◽  
Dayang Wang ◽  
Chongxun Mo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Vegetation Coverage ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Evaporation ◽  
Water Assessment

Abstract Based on the scenario hypothesis method, this paper applied a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyze the sensitivity of runoff to climate and land-use changes in the Longtan basin, China. Results indicated that (1) for every 1 °C increase in temperature, the average annual runoff decreased by 9.9 mm, and the average annual evaporation increased by 9.3 mm. However, for every 10% increase in rainfall, the average annual runoff and evapotranspiration increased by 96.3 mm and 11.53 mm, respectively. Obviously, runoff was more sensitive to the change in rainfall than temperature in the Longtan basin. Meanwhile, (2) forestland could conserve water resources, but its water consumption was larger. Although grassland played a relatively small role in water conservation, it consumed less water. At the same time, increasing the area of forestland and grassland could weaken peak floods, and the water retention function of vegetation could prevent runoff from increasing and decreasing steeply. Therefore, it is worth improving vegetation coverage.

scholarly journals Assessment and Mitigation of Streamflow and Sediment Yield under Climate Change Conditions in Diyala River Basin, Iraq

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji ◽  
Rana D. Al-Chalabi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Important Challenge ◽  
Diyala River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Assessment

The impact of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds is an important challenge facing the water resources of the Diyala River in Iraq. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to project this impact on streamflow and sediment yield until year 2050 by applying five climate models for scenario A1B involving medium emissions. The models were calibrated and validated based on daily observed streamflow and sediment recorded for the periods from 1984 to 2013 and 1984 to 1985, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination values for the calibration (validation) were 0.61 (0.53) and 0.6 (0.62) for Derbendkhan and Hemrin, respectively. In addition, the average of the future predictions for the five climate models indicated that the streamflow (sediment yield) for the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds would decrease to 49% (43.7%) and 20% (30%), respectively, until 2050, compared with the observed flow of the base period from 1984 to 2013. The spatial analysis showed that 10.4% and 68% of the streamflow comes from Iraqi parts of the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds, respectively, while 10% and 60% of the sediment comes from the Iraqi parts of the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds, respectively. Deforestation of the northern part of the Hemrin Watershed is the best method to decrease the amount of sediment entering the Hemrin Reservoir.

Estimating Runoff and Environment Protection in Tao River Basin based on Swat Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 340 ◽  
pp. 942-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Xu ◽  
Hui Qing Peng
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Environment Protection ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Arcview Gis ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate runoff yield in Tao River Basin on ArcView GIS platform. The main objective was to validate the performance of SWAT and the feasibility of this model as a simulator of runoff in a catchment. The investigation was conducted using a 6-year historical runoff record from 2001 to 2008 (2001-2004 for calibration and 2005-2008 for validation). The simulated monthly runoff matched the observed values satisfactorily, with Re was less than 20%, R2 > 0.78 and Nash-suttclife (Ens)>0.8 for both calibration and validation period at 4 hydrological stations. These indicated that the simulation of runoff was reasonable, reflecting the validity of SWAT model in Tao River Basin.

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