Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 26-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Jeuland ◽  
Nagaraja Harshadeep ◽  
Jorge Escurra ◽  
Don Blackmore ◽  
Claudia Sadoff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Gangetic Plain ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Ganges

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank's Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts – downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization – inform the assessment. We find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. We also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

scholarly journals Hydropower Potential of Run of River Schemes in the Himalayas under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Dudh Koshi Basin of Nepal

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2625
Author(s):  
Daniele Bocchiola ◽  
Mattia Manara ◽  
Riccardo Mereu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Energy Deficit ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
Run Of River

In spite of the very large hydropower potential given from the melting snow and ice of Himalayas, Nepal’s population has little hydropower production. The high use of fossil fuels and biomasses results in measurable air pollution, even in the mountain areas. Hydropower planning and implementation, in the face of the changing climate, is therefore paramount important. We focus here on Nepal, and particularly on the Dudh Koshi river basin, with a population of ca. 170,000 people, within an area with large potential for hydropower production. Our main objectives are to (i) preliminarily design a local hydropower grid based on a distributed run of river ROR scheme, and (ii) verify the resilience of the grid against modified hydrology under perspective climate change, until the end of the century. To do so, we set up and tune the Poli-Hydro semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model, mimicking the complex hydrology of the area. We then modify a state of the art algorithm to develop and exploit a heuristic, resource-demand based model, called Poli-ROR. We use Poli-ROR to assess the (optimal) distribution of a number of ROR hydropower stations along the river network, and the structure of the local mini-grids. We then use downscaled outputs from three general circulation models GCMs (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR5, to assess the performance of the system under future modified hydrological conditions. We find that our proposed method is efficient in shaping ROR systems, with the target of the largest possible coverage (93%), and of the least price (0.068 € kWh−1 on average). We demonstrate also that under the projected hydrological regimes until 2100, worse conditions than now may occur, especially for plants with small drainage areas. Days with energy shortage may reach up to nf = 38 per year on average (against nf = 24 now), while the maximum daily energy deficit may reach as high as edef% = 40% (against edef% = 20% now). We demonstrate that our originally proposed method for ROR grid design may represent a major contribution towards the proper development of distributed hydropower production in the area. Our results may contribute to improve energy supply, and living conditions within the Dudh Koshi river. It is likely that our approach may be applied in Nepal generally. Impending climate change may require adaptation in time, including the use of other sources which are as clean as possible, to limit pollution. Our Poli-ROR method for grid optimization may be of use for water managers, and scientists with an interest in the design of optimal hydropower schemes in topographically complex catchments.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on meteorological droughts in watershed scale (case study: southwestern Iran)

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Data Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world which has a lot of social and economic impacts. There are various factors that affect climate changes; the investigation of this incident is also sensitive. Climate scenarios of future climate change studies and investigation of efficient methods for investigating these events on drought should be assumed. This study intends to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed in the future. For this purpose, the atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be investigated. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). In this research standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. To determine the feasibility of future periods meteorological data production of LRAS-WG5 model, calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The most increase of precipitation will take place in winter and in December. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B. Wet years increases in the study area during 2011-2030 period and the more continuous drought years gradually increases during 2046-2065 period, the more severe and frequent drought will occur during the 2080-2099 period.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Posch ◽  
J. Aherne ◽  
M. Forsius ◽  
S. Fronzek ◽  
N. Veijalainen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Chemical Recovery ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

scholarly journals Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Udit Bhatia ◽  
Amar Deep Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951–2014) and projected (2015–2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.

Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1857) ◽  
pp. 2029-2052 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A Stott ◽  
Chris E Forest
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Past Climate Change

Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

scholarly journals How Well Do We Understand and Evaluate Climate Change Feedback Processes?

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3445-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
Robert Colman ◽  
Vladimir M. Kattsov ◽  
Richard P. Allan ◽  
Christopher S. Bretherton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
External Perturbation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Estimates

Abstract Processes in the climate system that can either amplify or dampen the climate response to an external perturbation are referred to as climate feedbacks. Climate sensitivity estimates depend critically on radiative feedbacks associated with water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, and global estimates of these feedbacks differ among general circulation models. By reviewing recent observational, numerical, and theoretical studies, this paper shows that there has been progress since the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in (i) the understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in these feedbacks, (ii) the interpretation of intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks, and (iii) the development of methodologies of evaluation of these feedbacks (or of some components) using observations. This suggests that continuing developments in climate feedback research will progressively help make it possible to constrain the GCMs’ range of climate feedbacks and climate sensitivity through an ensemble of diagnostics based on physical understanding and observations.

scholarly journals Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 369 ◽  
pp. 147-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. S. M. Herath ◽  
P. R. Sarukkalige ◽  
V. T. V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Correction Function ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Time Regime ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
Spatial Downscaling

Abstract. Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner. Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches. As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the context of climate change.

scholarly journals Contrasting dynamics of hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moctar Dembélé ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Natalie Ceperley ◽  
Sander J. Zwart ◽  
Josh Larsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Low Flow

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Unravelling the contribution of potential evaporation formulation to uncertainty under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Ludovic Oudin ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Lila Collet
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Impact Studies

Abstract. The increasing air temperature in a changing climate will impact actual evaporation and have consequences for water resources management in energy-limited regions. In many hydrological models, evaporation is assessed by a preliminary computation of potential evaporation (PE) representing the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Therefore, in impact studies the quantification of uncertainties related to PE estimation, which can arise from different sources, is crucial. Indeed, a myriad of PE formulations exist and the uncertainties related to climate variables cascade into PE computation. So far, no consensus has emerged on the main source of uncertainty in the PE modelling chain for hydrological studies. In this study, we address this issue by setting up a multi-model and multi-scenario approach. We used seven different PE formulations and a set of 30 climate projections to calculate changes in PE. To estimate the uncertainties related to each step of the PE calculation process (namely Representative Concentration Pathways, General Circulation Models, Regional Climate Models and PE formulations), an analysis of variance decomposition (ANOVA) was used. Results show that PE would increase across France by the end of the century, from +40 to +130 mm/year. In ascending order, uncertainty contributions by the end of the century are explained by: PE formulations (below 10 %), then RCPs (above 20 %), RCMs (30–40 %) and GCMs (30–40 %). Finally, all PE formulations show similar future trends since climatic variables are co-dependent to temperature. While no PE formulation stands out from the others, in hydrological impact studies the Penman-Monteith formulation may be preferred as it is representative of the PE formulations ensemble mean and allows accounting for climate and environmental drivers co-evolution.

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