scholarly journals Contrasting dynamics of hydrological processes in the Volta River basin under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moctar Dembélé ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Natalie Ceperley ◽  
Sander J. Zwart ◽  
Josh Larsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Low Flow

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of twelve general circulation models (GCM) from CMIP5 that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCM) from CORDEX-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM-GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The corrected simulations are then used as input to the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the twenty-first century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting changes in the seasonality of rainfall depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High and low flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water-energy-food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

scholarly journals Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and mitigation options in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 328-342
Author(s):  
M. A Adeyemi ◽  
E. O. Akinfala
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Enteric Fermentation ◽  
Changement Climatique

Greenhouse gases are becoming devastating on agriculture and environment because of its effect on climate and global warming. The aim of this review is to provide update on livestock greenhouse gases emission and rekindle available mitigation strategies. Recently, global warming and climate change have become one of the most discussed issues globally because of their negative effect on ecosystem worldwide. The livestock sub-sector as a major source of greenhouse gas emission, has been identified to contribute substantially to the recent rise in global warming and climate change. Livestock, most importantly ruminants plays a major role in the emission of methane, one of the potent greenhouse gases. This methane is usually released through enteric fermentation in animals and manure management system, though the latter account for smaller quantity. Estimate of methane emission inventory from livestock in Nigeria showed that 96.15 % of methane produced by livestock was by ruminants with cattle alone accounting for 74.06 %. With this background, strategies to date for reducing methane emissions should centre on ruminant. Efforts to reduce methane emissions from enteric fermentation generally focus on options for improving production efficiency. This has been demonstrated with intensive animal production systems. However, in Nigeria, this system has been successful only for non-ruminants while the extensive and semi extensive systems are being practiced for ruminants. In view of this, options for reducing emissions must be selected to be consistent with country-specific circumstances. Those circumstances should include animal management practices (including cultural traditions), nutrition and economic development priorities.     Les gaz à effet de serre deviennent dévastateurs de l'agriculture et de l'environnement en raison de son effet sur le climat et le réchauffement de la planète. L'objectif de cet examen est de fournir une mise à jour sur les stratégies d'atténuation disponibles des gaz à effet de serre de bétail. Récemment, le réchauffement climatique et le changement climatique sont devenus l'une des questions les plus discutées à l'échelle mondiale en raison de leur effet négatif sur l'écosystème mondial. Le sous-secteur de l'élevage en tant que source majeure d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre, a été identifié pour contribuer de manière substantielle à la hausse récente du réchauffement de la planète et du changement climatique. Le bétail, plus important encore, les ruminants jouent un rôle majeur dans l'émission de méthane, l'un des gaz à effet de serre puissants. Ce méthane est généralement libéré par la fermentation entérique chez les animaux et le système de gestion de fumier, bien que ces derniers représentent une plus petite quantité. L'estimation des stocks d'émissions de méthane provenant du bétail au Nigéria a montré que 96,15% de méthane produites par le bétail étaient par des ruminants avec des bovins à eux-mêmes représentant 74,06%. Avec ce contexte, des stratégies à ce jour pour réduire les émissions de méthane doivent être centrées sur le ruminant. Les efforts visant à réduire les émissions de méthane de la fermentation entérique se concentrent généralement sur les options d'amélioration de l'efficacité de la production. Cela a été démontré avec des systèmes de production d'animaux intensifs. Cependant, au Nigéria, ce système n'a abouti que pour les non-ruminants tandis que les systèmes étendus et semi-étendus sont pratiqués pour les ruminants. Compte tenu de cela, les options de réduction des émissions doivent être sélectionnées pour être cohérentes avec des circonstances spécifiques à chaque pays. Ces circonstances devraient inclure des pratiques de gestion des animaux (y compris des traditions culturelles), des priorités de nutrition et de développement économique

Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 26-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Jeuland ◽  
Nagaraja Harshadeep ◽  
Jorge Escurra ◽  
Don Blackmore ◽  
Claudia Sadoff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Gangetic Plain ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Ganges

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank's Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts – downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization – inform the assessment. We find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. We also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

scholarly journals Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1017-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Marx ◽  
Rohini Kumar ◽  
Stephan Thober ◽  
Oldrich Rakovec ◽  
Niko Wanders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from −12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971–2000, to −35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period-averaged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2) the uncertainty in the multi-model ensemble expressed by the signal-to-noise ratio. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the model results is generally higher than the one by the HMs. However, the uncertainty due to HMs cannot be neglected. In the Alpine, Northern, and Mediterranean regions, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Based on the analysis results, it is recommended (1) to use multiple HMs in climate impact studies and (2) to embrace uncertainty information on the multi-model ensemble as well as its single members in the adaptation process.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatological Model Biases on the Projection of Tropical Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9909-9917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen-Qiang Zhou ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Tropical Climate Change

Abstract Climate models suffer from long-standing biases, including the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem and the excessive westward extension of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. An atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate how model biases in the mean state affect the projection of tropical climate change. The model is forced with a pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) increase derived from a coupled simulation of global warming but uses an SST climatology derived from either observations or a coupled historical simulation. The comparison of the experiments reveals that the climatological biases have important impacts on projected changes in the tropics. Specifically, during February–April when the climatological ITCZ displaces spuriously into the Southern Hemisphere, the model overestimates (underestimates) the projected rainfall increase in the warmer climate south (north) of the equator over the eastern Pacific. Furthermore, the global warming–induced Walker circulation slowdown is biased weak in the projection using coupled model climatology, suggesting that the projection of the reduced equatorial Pacific trade winds may also be underestimated. This is related to the bias that the climatological Walker circulation is too weak in the model, which is in turn due to a too-weak mean SST gradient in the zonal direction. The results highlight the importance of improving the climatological simulation for more reliable projections of regional climate change.

scholarly journals Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 2201-2242 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Chawla ◽  
P. P. Mujumdar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Ganga Basin

Abstract. Streamflow regime is sensitive to changes in land use and climate in a river basin. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in the river basin. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modelling based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modelled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban area and moderately sensitive to change in crop land area. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. Combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

scholarly journals Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 3633-3651 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Chawla ◽  
P. P. Mujumdar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Infiltration Capacity

Abstract. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

scholarly journals Modeling the impact of climate change on streamflow and major hydrological components of an Iranian Wadi system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Mahmoodi ◽  
Paul D. Wagner ◽  
Jens Kiesel ◽  
Nicola Fohrer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change has pronounced impacts on water resources, especially in arid regions. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Wadi Halilrood Basin which feeds the Jazmorian wetland in southeastern Iran. To simulate streamflow and hydrological components in the future periods (2030–2059 and 2070–2099), projections for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 11 global-regional climate models and two bias correction methods are used as input data for a hydrologic model that represents the daily streamflow with good accuracy (NSE: 0.76, PBIAS: 4.7, KGE: 0.87). The results indicate a slight increase of streamflow in January and March, due to the higher intensity of precipitation. However, according to the predicted flow duration curves, a decrease for high and very high flow and no remarkable changes for middle, low and very low flow is found under both emission scenarios for both future periods. Compared to the simulated hydrological components for the baseline, a slight increase of evapotranspiration of around 6 mm (4%) and 2 mm (<2%) for the mid- and end of the century is estimated, respectively. Moreover, a substantial drop of water yield of around 36 mm (63%) at mid-century and 39 mm (69%) at the end of the century are projected.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

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