scholarly journals Frazil ice jam risk assessment method for water transfer projects based on design scheme

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3038-3051
Author(s):  
Mengkai Liu ◽  
Qiuyi Fan ◽  
Hui Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Project Design ◽  
Frazil Ice ◽  
Ice Jam

Abstract Frazil ice jam risk assessment is an important method to improve the operational safety of water transfer projects. A frazil ice jam assessment method was developed based on project design conditions to ensure the risk level of frazil ice jam. A frazil ice jam risk assessment indicator system was incorporated into the method that included three first-level indicators, such as ice production, special hydraulic structure and basic design parameters, and 17 third-level indicators for calculation analysis. Then, a standard assessment system was proposed, and an analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the magnitude of the frazil ice jam risk. Finally, the method was used to study the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRSNWDP) from the Guyunhe to Beijumahe canals. The results showed that all of the canal pools had frazil ice jam risk levels between III and IV, of which approximately 15% of the pools have risk level IV, and the canal pools with risk level IV were reported to have ice jam incidents, and it suggested that the ice condition prediction, engineering operation process in winter, engineering measures for disaster reduction and emergency plan refinement need to be strengthened for the pools with risk level IV. Therefore, the method of frazil ice jam risk assessment based on project design conditions can perform well in both the built-operating stage and the design stage of water transfer projects. Frazil ice jam risk prevention is a task through the full life-cycle of water project construction, it is necessary to do risk assessment work at design stage, and the work should be written into the national standard.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in water transfer projects based on an improved cloud model

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2517-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianfeng Huang ◽  
Wanyu Li ◽  
Yingqin Chen ◽  
Guohua Fang ◽  
Wei Yan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Membership Degree ◽  
Entropy Weight

Abstract The utilization of floodwater resources will produce benefits, but it will also pose risks; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen knowledge regarding risk assessment to minimize negative effects. In the present study, the risk factors for the utilization of floodwater resources in water diversion projects were identified, the index system was constructed, and the fuzziness and randomness of the risk were considered. Assessment was performed with respect to the following three projects: water storage, water conveyance, and water pumping. The specific methods to improve the cloud model are as follows: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate subjective weights, entropy weight method and projection pursuit method are used to calculate objective weights, X-conditional cloud is used to calculate index membership degree, and finally combination weight and membership degree are combined to obtain the risk level of flood resource utilization. The above methodology was applied to the risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in the Jiangsu Province of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in high-flow, normal-flow, and low-flow years was evaluated, and the validity and applicability of the assessment method were verified.

scholarly journals Biological risk assessment: A challenge for occupational health and safety practitioners during the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Pandemic

Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Carlos Carvalhais ◽  
Micaela Querido ◽  
Cristiana C. Pereira ◽  
Joana Santos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Biological Risk ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Medium Risk

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 global pandemic brought several challenges to occupational safety and health practice. One of these is the need to (re)assess the occupational risks, particularly, biological risks. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this work is to promote guidance to occupational safety and health practitioners when conducting a biological risk assessment in this context. METHODS: The main steps of the biological risk assessment are explained with some inputs regarding the novelty posed by SARS-CoV-2 and an example of a qualitative risk assessment method is presented. Also, its application to two different activities was exemplified. RESULTS: In both cases, the assessment considered that vulnerable workers were working from home or in medical leave. The results showed low or medium risk level for the assessed tasks. For medium risk level, additional controls are advised, such maintain social distancing, sanitize instruments/equipment before use, use proper and well-maintained PPE (when applicable), and promote awareness sessions to spread good practices at work. Employers must be aware of their obligations regarding biological risk assessment and OSH practitioners must be prepared to screen and link the abundance of scientific evidence generated following the outbreak, with the technical practice. CONCLUSIONS: This paper could be an important contribution to OSH practice since it highlights the need to (re)assess occupational risks, especially biological risk, to ensure a safe return to work, providing technical guidance.

A New Fine-Kinney Method Based on Clustering Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (03) ◽  
pp. 497-512
Author(s):  
Cansu Dagsuyu ◽  
Murat Oturakci ◽  
Esra Sarac Essiz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Conventional Method ◽  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Distance Functions ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Clustering Techniques ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Clustering Approach

In this study, a new approach to Fine-Kinney risk assessment method is developed in order to overcome the limitations of the conventional method with clustering algorithms. New risk level of classes are attempted to determine with K-Means and Hierarchical clustering algorithms with using two different distance functions which are Euclidean and Manhattan distances. According to the results, K-Means algorithms have provided accurate and sensitive cluster of classes. Classes from conventional and K-Means algorithms are applied and compared to the identified risks of a workshop of a medium sized textile company. Results of the study indicate that clustering techniques are new, original and applicable way to define new classes in order to prioritize risks by overcoming the drawbacks of conventional Fine-Kinney method.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Boot Hydropower Projects in Nepal Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Pramesh Tripathi ◽  
Santosh Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Hydroelectric Project ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Approach ◽  
College Of Engineering

<p>Many Hydropower Projects in Nepal are carried out with insufficient risk assessment because of which time over run or variations are predominant. Many projects are stuck in preconstruction phase and others in construction phase. In this study all possible risks associated with the BOOT Hydropower Project in Nepal were identified and evaluated. Fuzzy rating tool has been used to quantify the risk associated with the BOOT Hydropower Projects in Nepal. It provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze the project risks.  The relative importance (impact) of risk factors was determined from the survey results. A set of questionnaire was prepared for the survey. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in BOOT hydropower projects. From the survey, among the type of risks, Grid Connection / Power Evacuation, Political risk and Geological risk were found to be predominant risk respectively in BOOT hydropower projects in Nepal. The risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system: low risk having R values between 1.17 and 1.69; medium risk, between 1.69 and 2.08; high risk, between 2.08 and 2.47; extreme risk, between 2.47 and 2.78. Applicability of the methodology was tested on a real case hydropower project namely Middle Modi Hydroelectric Project (15.1 MW) which is in construction phase on Modi River in Western Region in Nepal and Madhya Bhotekosi Jalavidyut Company Ltd. (102 MW) which is also in construction phase on Bhotekoshi River in Central Region in Nepal.  The risk analysis method will give investors a more rational basis on which to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. An overall risk index can be used as early indicators of project problems or potential difficulties. Evaluators can keep track to evaluate the current risk level with the progress of investments.</p><p><strong>Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management</strong>, Vol. 3, 2017, Page: 115-125</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Dynamic Risk Assessment Method for Deep-Buried Tunnels Based on a Bayesian Network

Geofluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Sulei Zhang ◽  
Siyao Guo ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

In view of the shortcomings in the risk assessment of deep-buried tunnels, a dynamic risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network is proposed. According to case statistics, a total of 12 specific risk rating factors are obtained and divided into three types: objective factors, subjective factors, and monitoring factors. The grading criteria of the risk rating factors are determined, and a dynamic risk rating system is established. A Bayesian network based on this system is constructed by expert knowledge and historical data. The nodes in the Bayesian network are in one-to-one correspondence with the three types of influencing factors, and the probability distribution is determined. Posterior probabilistic and sensitivity analyses are carried out, and the results show that the main influencing factors obtained by the two methods are basically the same. The constructed dynamic risk assessment model is most affected by the objective factor rating and monitoring factor rating, followed by the subjective factor rating. The dynamic risk rating is mainly affected by the surrounding rock level among the objective factors, construction management among the subjective factors, and arch crown convergence and side wall displacement among the monitoring factors. The dynamic risk assessment method based on the Bayesian network is applied to the No. 3 inclined shaft of the Humaling tunnel. According to the adjustment of the monitoring data and geological conditions, the dynamic risk rating probability of level I greatly decreased from 81.7% to 33.8%, the probability of level II significantly increased from 12.3% to 34.0%, and the probability of level III increased from 5.95% to 32.2%, which indicates that the risk level has risen sharply. The results show that this method can effectively predict the risk level during tunnel construction.

Risk Assessment of Crowd Crushing and Tramping Accidents in Urban Rail Transit Station Based on DEA

2015 ◽  
Vol 730 ◽  
pp. 327-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Da Jiao ◽  
Chun Hui Gan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Urban Rail Transit ◽  
Rail Transit ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Urban Rail ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Transit Station ◽  
Matlab Programming

Based on the operation and management of station, the research was mainly about the risk assessment method of the crowd crushing and tramping accidents in urban rail transit stations. The indicator system about the crowd crushing and tramping accidents in urban rail transit station was established. The C2R model of data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used in the risk assessment, and the model was solved with MATLAB programming. The result of the analysis is generally consistent with the actual situation.

scholarly journals Dynamic Risk Assessment of Ultra-Shallow-Buried and Large-Span Double-Arch Tunnel Construction

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 11721
Author(s):  
Jianxiu Wang ◽  
Ansheng Cao ◽  
Zhao Wu ◽  
Zhipeng Sun ◽  
Xiao Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Tunnel Excavation ◽  
Rock Reinforcement ◽  
Large Span ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Result

Ultra-shallow-buried and large-span double-arch tunnels face complex risks during construction. The risk sources are hidden, complicated, and diverse. The dynamic risk assessment problem cannot be solved satisfactorily by using the static method as an insufficient amount of research has been conducted. The land part of the Xiamen Haicang double-arch tunnel was selected as the background for the dynamic risk assessment of ultra-shallow-buried and large-span double-arch tunnel construction. The construction process was divided into five stages: pre-construction preparation; ground and surrounding rock reinforcement; pilot tunnel excavation; and the single-and the double-tunnel excavations of the main tunnel. Through consultation with tunnel experts, six first-level and thirty second-level risk evaluation indexes were proposed. The benchmark weight of the dynamic risk assessment index was determined by using the analytic hierarchy process. The weight of the risk evaluation index was revised according to the monitoring data and the construction stage. The fuzzy evaluation matrix of the construction risk membership degree was obtained by using the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, and the calculation results were analyzed using the subsection assignment method. Control measures were suggested according to the risk assessment results. The risk assessment result of the double tunnel excavation stage of the main tunnel was level II, and the risk level was the highest among the five construction stages. The risk assessment result of the ground and surrounding rock reinforcement stage was level IV, and the risk level was the lowest. The dynamic construction safety risk assessment based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is more timely, accurate, and reasonable than the traditional assessment method. The method can be adopted in similar engineering projects.

scholarly journals The Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards in Banshanmen Gully Based on the Entropy Weight-Normal Cloud Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
X. B. Gu ◽  
S. T. Wu ◽  
X. J. Ji ◽  
Y. H. Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Entropy Weight Method ◽  
Weight Method ◽  
Index Weight

The debris flow is one of the geological hazards; its occurrence is complex, fuzzy, and random. And it is affected by many indices; a new multi-index assessment method is proposed to analyze the risk level of debris flow based on the entropy weight-normal cloud model in Banshanmen gully. The index weight is calculated by using the entropy weight method. Then, the certainty degree of each index belonging to the corresponding cloud is obtained by using the cloud model. The final risk level of debris flow is determined according to the synthetic certainty degree. The conclusions are drawn that the method is feasible and accurate rate of risk estimation for debris flow is very high, so a new method and thoughts for the risk assessment of debris flow can be provided in the future.

scholarly journals Study on Fire Risk Assessment Method by Considering Warehouse Characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Hayoung Kim ◽  
Dongho Rie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Fire Hazards ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Loads

Large spaces, such as warehouses where internal loads are stored, exhibit higher fire loads and faster fire growths than general fires. In addition, the volume of the internal load reduces the space required for the smoke to stay, thereby accelerating the decline in smoke height. To prevent fire hazards in such spaces, it is necessary to evaluate the fire risk during the design stage. However, it is difficult to evaluate various settings because the evaluation method using the existing computational fluid dynamics utilize considerable amount of time. In this study, an algorithm was developed to evaluate the internal loads by using formulas related to the existing fire risk assessment. The developed algorithm is designed to easily calculate the detection time of the detector, smoke fall time, and sprinkler operation time. This algorithm could be used to design an optimized fire protection system in the initial design stage.

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