scholarly journals Risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in water transfer projects based on an improved cloud model

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2517-2532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianfeng Huang ◽  
Wanyu Li ◽  
Yingqin Chen ◽  
Guohua Fang ◽  
Wei Yan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Water Diversion ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Membership Degree ◽  
Entropy Weight

Abstract The utilization of floodwater resources will produce benefits, but it will also pose risks; therefore, it is necessary to strengthen knowledge regarding risk assessment to minimize negative effects. In the present study, the risk factors for the utilization of floodwater resources in water diversion projects were identified, the index system was constructed, and the fuzziness and randomness of the risk were considered. Assessment was performed with respect to the following three projects: water storage, water conveyance, and water pumping. The specific methods to improve the cloud model are as follows: analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to calculate subjective weights, entropy weight method and projection pursuit method are used to calculate objective weights, X-conditional cloud is used to calculate index membership degree, and finally combination weight and membership degree are combined to obtain the risk level of flood resource utilization. The above methodology was applied to the risk assessment of floodwater resources utilization in the Jiangsu Province of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The risk of floodwater resources utilization in high-flow, normal-flow, and low-flow years was evaluated, and the validity and applicability of the assessment method were verified.

scholarly journals The Risk Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards in Banshanmen Gully Based on the Entropy Weight-Normal Cloud Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
X. B. Gu ◽  
S. T. Wu ◽  
X. J. Ji ◽  
Y. H. Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Entropy Weight Method ◽  
Weight Method ◽  
Index Weight

The debris flow is one of the geological hazards; its occurrence is complex, fuzzy, and random. And it is affected by many indices; a new multi-index assessment method is proposed to analyze the risk level of debris flow based on the entropy weight-normal cloud model in Banshanmen gully. The index weight is calculated by using the entropy weight method. Then, the certainty degree of each index belonging to the corresponding cloud is obtained by using the cloud model. The final risk level of debris flow is determined according to the synthetic certainty degree. The conclusions are drawn that the method is feasible and accurate rate of risk estimation for debris flow is very high, so a new method and thoughts for the risk assessment of debris flow can be provided in the future.

Risk Assessment of Reservoir by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Based on Information Entropy

2013 ◽  
Vol 438-439 ◽  
pp. 1612-1618
Author(s):  
Yong Jia Song ◽  
Cong Cong Jin ◽  
Xian Cai Zhang ◽  
Jing Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Weighting Method

This paper proposes a new risk assessment model on account of the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk factors in the reservoir after earthquake. The paper adopts methods of information entropy and fuzzy mathematics to assess risk level of the model. After analyzing the statistical data of earthquake-damaged reservoirs, we present comprehensive weight composed of importance and improved entropy weight. Base on comprehensive weight, we can adopt membership function to establish single factor evaluation of the model. Moreover, we combine fuzzy weighting method to assess risk level of a reservoir after earthquake. The result shows that risk level of the reservoir is high-risk. The case study verifies the practicability and rationality of the risk assessment method. Therefore, the method could be applied in the emergency rescue and reinforcement for reservoir after earthquake.

A novel method of risk assessment based on improved AHP-Cloud model for freezing pipe fracture

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Fuwei Liu ◽  
Yansen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
New Research

The freezing pipe fracture can cause freezing wall to thaw and even lead to major accidents such as mine flooding easily, which seriously threatens the safety in construction. Therefore, scientific and effective comprehensive risk assessment for freezing pipe fracture is of great significance. In this work, a risk assessment method is put forward based on improved AHP-Cloud model with 19 evaluation indicators. First, the multi-dimension evaluation index system and evaluation model are established, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the risk factors that may lead to accidents. Second, synthesizing the normalization process and the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the evaluation grade cloud and comprehensive evaluation cloud of freezing pipe fracture can be acquired by using the forward cloud generator. Finally, According to the max-subjection principle and the comprehensive evaluation method, we obtain the risk level of freezing pipe fracture. The model is applied to Yangcun Coal Mine. It has been verified that the risk assessment problem of freezing pipe fracture in freezing sinking can be successfully solved by the model we proposed. Above all, the study offers a new research idea for the risk management of freezing pipe fracture in freeze sinking.

scholarly journals Frazil ice jam risk assessment method for water transfer projects based on design scheme

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3038-3051
Author(s):  
Mengkai Liu ◽  
Qiuyi Fan ◽  
Hui Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Indicator System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Project Design ◽  
Frazil Ice ◽  
Ice Jam

Abstract Frazil ice jam risk assessment is an important method to improve the operational safety of water transfer projects. A frazil ice jam assessment method was developed based on project design conditions to ensure the risk level of frazil ice jam. A frazil ice jam risk assessment indicator system was incorporated into the method that included three first-level indicators, such as ice production, special hydraulic structure and basic design parameters, and 17 third-level indicators for calculation analysis. Then, a standard assessment system was proposed, and an analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the magnitude of the frazil ice jam risk. Finally, the method was used to study the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRSNWDP) from the Guyunhe to Beijumahe canals. The results showed that all of the canal pools had frazil ice jam risk levels between III and IV, of which approximately 15% of the pools have risk level IV, and the canal pools with risk level IV were reported to have ice jam incidents, and it suggested that the ice condition prediction, engineering operation process in winter, engineering measures for disaster reduction and emergency plan refinement need to be strengthened for the pools with risk level IV. Therefore, the method of frazil ice jam risk assessment based on project design conditions can perform well in both the built-operating stage and the design stage of water transfer projects. Frazil ice jam risk prevention is a task through the full life-cycle of water project construction, it is necessary to do risk assessment work at design stage, and the work should be written into the national standard.

scholarly journals Biological risk assessment: A challenge for occupational health and safety practitioners during the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Pandemic

Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Carlos Carvalhais ◽  
Micaela Querido ◽  
Cristiana C. Pereira ◽  
Joana Santos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Biological Risk ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Medium Risk

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 global pandemic brought several challenges to occupational safety and health practice. One of these is the need to (re)assess the occupational risks, particularly, biological risks. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this work is to promote guidance to occupational safety and health practitioners when conducting a biological risk assessment in this context. METHODS: The main steps of the biological risk assessment are explained with some inputs regarding the novelty posed by SARS-CoV-2 and an example of a qualitative risk assessment method is presented. Also, its application to two different activities was exemplified. RESULTS: In both cases, the assessment considered that vulnerable workers were working from home or in medical leave. The results showed low or medium risk level for the assessed tasks. For medium risk level, additional controls are advised, such maintain social distancing, sanitize instruments/equipment before use, use proper and well-maintained PPE (when applicable), and promote awareness sessions to spread good practices at work. Employers must be aware of their obligations regarding biological risk assessment and OSH practitioners must be prepared to screen and link the abundance of scientific evidence generated following the outbreak, with the technical practice. CONCLUSIONS: This paper could be an important contribution to OSH practice since it highlights the need to (re)assess occupational risks, especially biological risk, to ensure a safe return to work, providing technical guidance.

scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Assessment for Deep Tunnel Failure Based on Normal Cloud Model: A Case Study at the ASHELE Copper Mine, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5208
Author(s):  
Jianpo Liu ◽  
Hongxu Shi ◽  
Ren Wang ◽  
Yingtao Si ◽  
Dengcheng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Geological Condition ◽  
Deep Tunnel ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Copper Mine ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Metal Mines

The spatial and temporal distribution of tunnel failure is very complex due to geologic heterogeneity and variability in both mining processes and tunnel arrangement in deep metal mines. In this paper, the quantitative risk assessment for deep tunnel failure was performed using a normal cloud model at the Ashele copper mine, China. This was completed by considering the evaluation indexes of geological condition, mining process, and microseismic data. A weighted distribution of evaluation indexes was determined by implementation of an entropy weight method to reveal the primary parameters controlling tunnel failure. Additionally, the damage levels of the tunnel were quantitatively assigned by computing the degree of membership that different damage levels had, based on the expectation normalization method. The methods of maximum membership principle, comprehensive evaluation value, and fuzzy entropy were considered to determine the tunnel damage levels and risk of occurrence. The application of this method at the Ashele copper mine demonstrates that it meets the requirement of risk assessment for deep tunnel failure and can provide a basis for large-scale regional tunnel failure control in deep metal mines.

scholarly journals Safety Assessment of Casting Workshop by Cloud Model and Cause and Effect–LOPA to Protect Employee Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu ◽  
Fang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Employee Health ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Assessment Approach

Safety assessment of a casting workshop will provide a clearer understanding of the important safety level required for a foundry. The main purpose of this study was to construct a composite safety assessment method to protect employee health using the cloud model and cause and effect–Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA). In this study, the weights of evaluation indicators were determined using the subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective entropy weight method respectively. Then, to obtain the preference coefficient of the integrated weight more precisely, a new algorithm was proposed based on the least square method. Next, the safety level of the casting workshop was presented based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the cloud model, which realized the uncertainty conversion between qualitative concepts and their corresponding quantitative values, as well as taking the fuzziness and randomness into account; the validity of cloud model evaluation was validated by grey relational analysis. In addition, cause and effect was used to proactively identify factors that may lead to accidents. LOPA was used to correlate corresponding safety measures to the identified risk factors. 6 causes and 19 sub-causes that may contribute to accidents were identified, and 18 potential remedies, or independent protection layers (IPLs), were described as ways to protect employee health in foundry operations. A mechanical manufacturing business in Hunan, China was considered as a case study to demonstrate the applicability and benefits of the proposed safety assessment approach.

A New Fine-Kinney Method Based on Clustering Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (03) ◽  
pp. 497-512
Author(s):  
Cansu Dagsuyu ◽  
Murat Oturakci ◽  
Esra Sarac Essiz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Conventional Method ◽  
Clustering Algorithms ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Distance Functions ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Clustering Techniques ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Clustering Approach

In this study, a new approach to Fine-Kinney risk assessment method is developed in order to overcome the limitations of the conventional method with clustering algorithms. New risk level of classes are attempted to determine with K-Means and Hierarchical clustering algorithms with using two different distance functions which are Euclidean and Manhattan distances. According to the results, K-Means algorithms have provided accurate and sensitive cluster of classes. Classes from conventional and K-Means algorithms are applied and compared to the identified risks of a workshop of a medium sized textile company. Results of the study indicate that clustering techniques are new, original and applicable way to define new classes in order to prioritize risks by overcoming the drawbacks of conventional Fine-Kinney method.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Boot Hydropower Projects in Nepal Using Fuzzy Logic Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 115
Author(s):  
Pramesh Tripathi ◽  
Santosh Kumar Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Hydroelectric Project ◽  
Extreme Risk ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Approach ◽  
College Of Engineering

<p>Many Hydropower Projects in Nepal are carried out with insufficient risk assessment because of which time over run or variations are predominant. Many projects are stuck in preconstruction phase and others in construction phase. In this study all possible risks associated with the BOOT Hydropower Project in Nepal were identified and evaluated. Fuzzy rating tool has been used to quantify the risk associated with the BOOT Hydropower Projects in Nepal. It provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze the project risks.  The relative importance (impact) of risk factors was determined from the survey results. A set of questionnaire was prepared for the survey. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in BOOT hydropower projects. From the survey, among the type of risks, Grid Connection / Power Evacuation, Political risk and Geological risk were found to be predominant risk respectively in BOOT hydropower projects in Nepal. The risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system: low risk having R values between 1.17 and 1.69; medium risk, between 1.69 and 2.08; high risk, between 2.08 and 2.47; extreme risk, between 2.47 and 2.78. Applicability of the methodology was tested on a real case hydropower project namely Middle Modi Hydroelectric Project (15.1 MW) which is in construction phase on Modi River in Western Region in Nepal and Madhya Bhotekosi Jalavidyut Company Ltd. (102 MW) which is also in construction phase on Bhotekoshi River in Central Region in Nepal.  The risk analysis method will give investors a more rational basis on which to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. An overall risk index can be used as early indicators of project problems or potential difficulties. Evaluators can keep track to evaluate the current risk level with the progress of investments.</p><p><strong>Journal of Advanced College of Engineering and Management</strong>, Vol. 3, 2017, Page: 115-125</p><p> </p>

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