scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Okan Mert Katipoğlu ◽  
Reşat Acar ◽  
Serkan Şenocak
Keyword(s):  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

Abstract In this study, the aim was to measure changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of a potential drought hazard area and determine the risk status of various meteorological and hydrological droughts by using the kriging, radial basis function (RBF), and inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation methods. With that goal, in monthly, three-month, and 12-month time periods drought indices were calculated. Spatio-temporal distributions of the droughts were determined with each drought index for the years in which the most severe droughts were experienced. According to the results, the basin is under risk of meteorological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts in most of the area, and especially in the north, during the monthly and three-month time periods. During the 12-month period, it was found that most of the basin is under risk of hydrological drought due to the occurrence of severe and extreme droughts, especially in the southern parts. The most effective interpolation method for the prediction of meteorological and hydrological droughts was determined as kriging according to the results of the cross-validation test. It was concluded that a drought management plan should be made, and early warnings and precautions should be applied in the study area.

scholarly journals Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Support of Natural Hazard Risk Appraisal in Oman

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suad Al-Manji ◽  
Gordon Mitchell ◽  
Amna Al Ruheili
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Extreme Winds

Tropical cyclones [TCs] are a common natural hazard that have significantly impacted Oman. Over the period 1881–2019, 41 TC systems made landfall in Oman, each associated with extreme winds, storm surges and significant flash floods, often resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. TCs affect Omani coastal areas from Muscat in the north to Salalah in the south. However, developing a better understanding of the high-risk regions is needed, and is of particular interest in disaster risk reduction institutions in Oman. This study aims to find and map TC tracks and their spatio-temporal distribution to landfall in Oman to identify the high-risk areas. The analysis uses Kernel Density Estimation [KDE] and Linear Direction Mean [LDM] methods to better identify the spatio-temporal distribution of TC tracks and their landfall in Oman. The study reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns. This knowledge will help to improve disaster planning for the high-risk areas.

scholarly journals Modelling local patterns of child mortality risk: a Bayesian Spatio-temporal analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue-Mendoza ◽  
Juan C. Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background Globally, child mortality rate has remained high over the years, but the figure can be reduced through proper implementation of spatially-targeted public health policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is particularly a health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policymakers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that supports the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

Upper-plate structural controls on the segmentation of the Kefalonia Fault (Ionian Sea, Greece)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Skourtsos ◽  
Haralambos Kranis ◽  
Spyridon Mavroulis ◽  
Efthimios Lekkas
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
African Plate ◽  
Plate Structure ◽  
The North ◽  
Macroseismic Effects ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>The NNE-SSW, right-lateral Kefalonia Transform Fault (KTF) marks the western termination of the subducting Hellenic slab, which is a part of the oceanic remnant of the African plate. The inception of the KTF, described as a STEP fault, is placed in the Pliocene. KTF is considered to be the most active earthquake source in the Eastern Mediterranean. During the last two decades, four significant earthquakes (M>6.0) have been associated with the KTF. These events are attributed to the reactivation of different segments of the KTF, which are (from North to South) the North Lefkada, South Lefkada, Fiskardo, Paliki and Zakynthos segments: the North Lefkada segment ruptured in the 2003 earthquake, the 2014 Kefalonia events are associated with the Paliki segment and the 2015 Lefkada earthquake with the South Lefkada (and possibly the Fiskardo) segments.</p><p>The upper plate structure in the islands of Lefkada and Kefalonia is characterized by the Ionian Unit, thrusted over the Paxi (or Pre-Apulian) Unit. The Ionian Thrust, which brings the Ionian over the Paxi Unit, is a main upper-plate NNW-SSE, NE-dipping structure. It runs through the island of Lefkada, to be mapped onshore again at the western coast of Ithaki and at SE Kefalonia. Two other major thrusts are mapped on this island: the Aenos thrust, which has a WNW-ESE strike at the southern part of the island and gradually curves towards NNW-SSE in the west and the Kalo Fault in the northern part. These Pliocene (and still active) structures developed during the late-most stages of thrusting in the Hellenides, strike obliquely to the KTF and appear to abut against it.</p><p>We suggest that these thrusts control not only the deformation within the upper plate, but also the earthquake segmentation of the KTF. This suggestion is corroborated by the spatio-temporal distribution and source parameters of the recent, well-documented earthquake events and by the macroseismic effects of these earthquakes. The abutment of the Ionian thrust against the KTF marks the southern termination of the Lefkada earthquake segment, which ruptured in the 2003 earthquake, while the Aenos, (or the Kalo) thrust mark the southern end of the Fiskardo segment. The spatial distribution of the Earthquake Environmental Effects related to the four significant events in the last 20 years displays a good correlation with our interpretation: most of the 2003 macroseismic effects are located in the northern part of Lefkada, which belongs to the upper block of the Ionian thrust; similarly, the effects of the 2014 earthquakes of Kefalonia are distributed mainly in the Paliki Peninsula and the southern part of the island that belong to the footwall of the Aenos thrust and the 2015 effects are found in SW Lefkada, which is part of the footwall of the Ionian thrust.</p><p>We suggest that correlation between upper-plate structure and plate boundary faulting can provide insights in the understanding of faulting pattern in convergent settings, therefore contributing to earthquake management plans.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of feline immunodeficiency virus and bovine tuberculosis co-infection in African lions

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1745) ◽  
pp. 4206-4214 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Maas ◽  
D. F. Keet ◽  
V. P. M. G. Rutten ◽  
J. A. P. Heesterbeek ◽  
M. Nielen
Keyword(s):  
Feline Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Blood Chemistry ◽  
The North ◽  
Conservation Problem ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
African Lions

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis , is a disease that was introduced relatively recently into the Kruger National Park (KNP) lion population. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV ple ) is thought to have been endemic in lions for a much longer time. In humans, co-infection between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus increases disease burden. If BTB were to reach high levels of prevalence in lions, and if similar worsening effects would exist between FIV ple and BTB as for their human equivalents, this could pose a lion conservation problem. We collected data on lions in KNP from 1993 to 2008 for spatio-temporal analysis of both FIV ple and BTB, and to assess whether a similar relationship between the two diseases exists in lions. We found that BTB prevalence in the south was higher than in the north (72 versus 19% over the total study period) and increased over time in the northern part of the KNP (0–41%). No significant spatio-temporal differences were seen for FIV ple in the study period, in agreement with the presumed endemic state of the infection. Both infections affected haematology and blood chemistry values, FIV ple in a more pronounced way than BTB. The effect of co-infection on these values, however, was always less than additive. Though a large proportion (31%) of the lions was co-infected with FIV ple and M. bovis , there was no evidence for a synergistic relation as in their human counterparts. Whether this results from different immunopathogeneses remains to be determined.

Analisys of mud inrush water sources into underground working of the Sokolovskoe ore deposit

2020 ◽  
pp. 56-67
Author(s):  
E. Yu. Efremov
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Conductivity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Underground Mining ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
High Water ◽  
The North ◽  
Initial Block ◽  
Groundwater Supply ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Inrush Water

There is a serious threat of groundwater inrush from overlying sedimentary layers for underground mining. When ore is extracted using block caving method, the area of overburden collapse over ore zone disrupts the natural structure of high hydraulic-conductivity and low hydraulic-conductivity layers. This process creates conditions for the accumulation and transfer of groundwater to mine workings, which lead to accidents, up to disastrous proportions. The research aim is to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of mud inrushes, and to identify groundwater supply sources of inrushes to reduce the geotechnical risks of underground mining in Sokolovskaya mine. Research methods include localization, classification, and analysis of monitoring data, comparison of mud inrushes distribution with geostatistical parameters of the main aquifers.The majority of large-scale accidents caused by mud inrushes are confined to the central and northern area of caved rock zone. The most risky stage of the ore body extraction is the initial block at the lower extraction level. The sources of water supply for the majority of the mud inrushes are high water level areas of the Cretaceous aquifer to the north and west of the mine. Rational targeted drainage aimed at draining the identified areas of the aquifer is the best way to reduce the risk of accidents.

Physical factors of influence in the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture driving the spatio-temporal evolution of drought patterns in the Ebro Basin (NE Spain).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Gaona ◽  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Maria José Escorihuela
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact

<p>Droughts in the Iberian Peninsula are a natural hazard of great relevance due to their recurrence, severity and impact on multiple environmental and socioeconomic aspects. The Ebro Basin, located in the NE of the Iberian Peninsula, is particularly vulnerable to drought with consequences on agriculture, urban water supply and hydropower. This study, performed within the Project HUMID (CGL2017-85687-R), aims at evaluating the influence of the climatic, land cover and soil characteristics on the interactions between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture anomalies which define the spatio-temporal drought patterns in the basin.</p><p>The onset, propagation and mitigation of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula is driven by anomalies of rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, which are related by feedback processes. To test the relative importance of such anomalies, we evaluate the contribution of climatic, land-cover and geologic heterogeneity on the definition of the spatio-temporal patterns of drought. We use the Köppen-Geiger climatic classification to assess how the contrasting climatic types within the basin determine differences on drought behavior. Land-cover types that govern the partition between evaporation and transpiration are also of great interest to discern the influence of vegetation and crop types on the anomalies of evapotranspiration across the distinct regions of the basin (e.g. forested mountains vs. crop-dominated areas). The third physical characteristic whose effect on drought we investigate is the impact of soil properties on soil moisture anomalies.</p><p>The maps and time series used for the spatio-temporal analysis are based on drought indices calculated with high-resolution datasets from remote sensing (MOD16A2ET and SMOS1km) and the land-surface model SURFEX-ISBA. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the EvapoTranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI) and the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI) are the three indices chosen to characterize the anomalies of the corresponding rainfall (atmospheric), evapotranspiration (atmosphere-land interface) and soil moisture (land) anomalies (components of the water balance). The comparison of the correlations of the indices (with different time lags) between contrasting regions offers insights about the impact of climate, land-cover and soil properties in the dominance, the timing of the response and memory aspects of the interactions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of remote sensing and land-surface model data allows adopting time and spatial scales suitable to investigate the influence of these physical factors with detail beyond comparison with ground-based datasets.</p><p>The spatial and temporal analysis prove useful to investigate the physical factors of influence on the anomalies between rainfall, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This approach facilitates the physical interpretation of the anomalies of drought indices aiming to improve the characterization of drought in heterogeneous semi-arid areas like the Ebro River Basin.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan Carlos Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: The number of death children at the international scale are still high, but with proper spatially-targeted health public policies this number could be reduced. In Mexico, children mortality is a particular health concern due to its alarming rate all throughout North America. The aims of this study are i) to model the change of children mortality risk at the municipality level, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time and (iii) to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities across time, using local trends of each municipality in Greater Mexico City. Methods: The study uses Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to control for space-time patterns of data. This allow to model the geographical variation of the municipalities within the time span studied. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north, west, and some in the east; some of such municipalities show an increasing children mortality risk over time. The outcomes highlight some municipalities which show a medium risk currently but are likely to become high risk along the study period. Finally, the odds of children mortality risk illustrate a decreasing tendency over the 7-year framework. Conclusions: Identification of high-risk municipalities may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking out to reduce the incidence of children mortality, since it would provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

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